Newbie 1996: GAME OVER

[humaneatingmonkey]

and now everyone agrees!

this really feels like a machination.

[HoldenGolden]

Worthy of note, Holden was absent early in the day phase for an extended period of time. During that time, he posted elsewhere on site. Pairing this with the mod sending out notifications that day 2 was up, I see scum motive for avoiding the game but not town motive. In any case, if town!Kirari, then town!Holden feels good because while there is scum motive for Holden not posting during a scum!Kirari wagon, it seems odd for scum!Holden not to post during a town!Kirari wagon.

So I'm scum lurking to gague town's appeal of my partner's lynch and then who decided to take the hard stance against bussing my partner who if they were to flip red, unlikely the majority of the thread, makes me look town given my day 1 interactions with them?

I dont post always in a particular game when I'm on because I'm not always in a mood to play them which can be a number of reasons.

[HoldenGolden]

and now everyone agrees!

this really feels like a machination.

No they dont.

I'm thinking about my town!kirari read while simultaneously catching up and ignoring my zoom class

[humaneatingmonkey]

Worthy of note, Holden was absent early in the day phase for an extended period of time. During that time, he posted elsewhere on site. Pairing this with the mod sending out notifications that day 2 was up, I see scum motive for avoiding the game but not town motive. In any case, if town!Kirari, then town!Holden feels good because while there is scum motive for Holden not posting during a scum!Kirari wagon, it seems odd for scum!Holden not to post during a town!Kirari wagon.

So I'm scum lurking to gague town's appeal of my partner's lynch and then who decided to take the hard stance against bussing my partner who if they were to flip red, unlikely the majority of the thread, makes me look town given my day 1 interactions with them?

I dont post always in a particular game when I'm on because I'm not always in a mood to play them which can be a number of reasons.

he got one thing incorrect. you're not partners with Kirari. you're partners with 3b.

[HoldenGolden]

Also we get it LL and kirari. Both of you are fine with the other losing etc. Etc.

We are either grown adults or maturing adults, let's accept it and move on rather than testing to provoke eachother mkay?

Pedit if 3b flips scum I'll happily get lynched as long as I get time to find his partner and it isnt lylo. He's been on my suspect pool for awhile.

[HoldenGolden]

Why is scum expected to play poorly when caught, especially when they are not mechanically caught? Do you think the same player who classified himself as the most capable player in the game would give up and AtE when there's a non-mechanically driven case against them?

because i've been in these situations before and i recognize that this is not normal behavior from scum at all. if the narrative fits that she has done the work for her roleblocker buddy, then she would expect a lynch today. she knows it's coming. she won't avoid it. that's 100% everyone believes, and i think scum!kirari would catch that. i don't know how to explain that besides the recognition.

So you are saying scum!kirari would of told her partner eariler to bus them which is exactly what happened for the first parts of this day phase?

I'm not quite sure I'm following your logic here? It may because I think differently about what scum!kirari would do.

[HoldenGolden]

In other words, because of my fake TR, the mafia's perception of Kirari's chances of survival were much higher than they became after I claimed. If you are trying to argue that Kirari would avoid the 1v1 with Yooh because her lynch is inevitable, you need to also realize that at the time of the 1v1, her lynch didn't look inevitable and I even said I would wager the entire game on her being Town, meaning they had at least 1 townie who they could count on to defend her.

I think you are over estimating your unvote post.

It hardly read as you giving them a town read and more temporally stepping back because of a lack of tonal response to being voted. While certainly putting some resistance towards you lynching them, I dont think it would alter much of mafia perception since 3 of [cli2d, monkey, yooh, 3b] (whoever isnt scum) were still strongly voting them.

[humaneatingmonkey]

if the narrative fits that scum!Kirari did what she did (claimfuckey) to draw PRs as a goon and attract flak from town, then she 100% would anticipate a hardpush today. Her reaction would not be what he reaction was today. Her reaction would be AtE, avoiding association, standing down, creating massive chaos. But instead, I got the opposite impression.

I want your thoughts now. If 3b flips scum, who do you think it is?

[Elmo TeH AzN]

Votecount 2.06

Kirari Momobami (1)

- Yooh,

Clidd (1)

- Kirari Momobami,

3bounty (1)

- humaneatingmonkey,

Not Voting (4)

- 3Bounty, HoldenGolden, Clidd, LuckyLuciano,

With 7 players alive it takes 4 votes to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2020-04-26 09:10:00)

[LuckyLuciano]

if the narrative fits that scum!Kirari did what she did (claimfuckey) to draw PRs as a goon and attract flak from town, then she 100% would anticipate a hardpush today.

No.

(1) They killed one of the players that was likely to push Kirari, InWho.
(2) Kirari thought I had a TR on her at the end of D1, that's already a point of resistance to a hard push going into D2.
(3) Sure, you were suspecting Kirari at the end of D1, but your case at the beginning of D2 introduces new information.
(4) It's also possible that Kirari has an inflated ego and thought she could play as she did D1 without drawing the amount of attention she did after a N1 TPR kill.

You're assumption is that scum!Kirari expected to trade her life for a more informed NK. Like, do you realize how off-base that analysis is? Wouldn't it literally be better for mafia to straight up CC TPR and buy an additional mislynch for their life? You are making the claim that scum!Kirari wanted the NK to be better, but still be a single NK nonetheless, still be a single dead townie, and that she was expecting to die D2 for an upgraded NK. When has that ever been the scum plan? Show me a game where that was the scum plan.

You are wrong in assuming that Kirari knew she would be caught.

[LuckyLuciano]

In other words, because of my fake TR, the mafia's perception of Kirari's chances of survival were much higher than they became after I claimed. If you are trying to argue that Kirari would avoid the 1v1 with Yooh because her lynch is inevitable, you need to also realize that at the time of the 1v1, her lynch didn't look inevitable and I even said I would wager the entire game on her being Town, meaning they had at least 1 townie who they could count on to defend her.

I think you are over estimating your unvote post.

It hardly read as you giving them a town read and more temporally stepping back because of a lack of tonal response to being voted. While certainly putting some resistance towards you lynching them, I dont think it would alter much of mafia perception since 3 of [cli2d, monkey, yooh, 3b] (whoever isnt scum) were still strongly voting them.

I'm not talking about my unvote post, I'm talking about my post stating that Kirari is always town and that I would wager the game on it.

[3bounty]

Worthy of note, Holden was absent early in the day phase for an extended period of time. During that time, he posted elsewhere on site. Pairing this with the mod sending out notifications that day 2 was up, I see scum motive for avoiding the game but not town motive. In any case, if town!Kirari, then town!Holden feels good because while there is scum motive for Holden not posting during a scum!Kirari wagon, it seems odd for scum!Holden not to post during a town!Kirari wagon.

VOTE: Holden

If there is a tracker then mafia would know. Holden waiting for last to post is scum, I am willing to bet he is the one that did the night kill too.

If he knows there's a tracker it makes sense to wait it out before posting or else he'd be posting in vain due to a successful track on him.

[LuckyLuciano]

I'm not sure when 3b became the voice of reason, but here we are.

[LuckyLuciano]

I mean, let's be real. There's a push to say that the day stalled because mafia was waiting for tracker to out before mislynching Kirari. I'm the tracker. I outed. I want to lynch Kirari. So the course of events that mafia was supposedly waiting for has passed. Kirari is alive. The same push is saying {Monkey, Clidd, Yooh, Lucky} all want to lynch Kirari, that Kirari is town, and that mafia is between {Clidd, 3b, Holden}. I cannot rationalize how the lynch hasn't happened if the latter assumption is granted.

[LuckyLuciano]

Monkey's defense of Kirari is essentially claiming that Kirari is TBTBAW. So I guess let's rewind.

@Monkey, if you are town, and if Kirari is town, why did InWho die? Is there a third player in this game who could have spotted InWho as jailer? I'm not in the running, because I'm mechanically town. Who could be mafia and also could read InWho as jailer? Surely not 3b, he surely can't be your first pick?

[HoldenGolden]

Ive been waiting to gain more out of 3b before this, but I've been thinking cil2d based off his interactions.

First thing first is the lack of focus on analysising cil2d vote on alo despite either scum reading the rest of the wagon (HEM and Kirari, and he has soft SR me) or town reading them (LL). In fact, he has been silent for the most part about cil2d come day 2 outside of agreeing with his pr read arguement (which he says later insist worth talking about).

More standing out to me through is his day 1 interaction with peaches. I can see the later half of day 1 after cil2d replaces in going either way with his sheep vote onto cil2d. His peaches read progression is more important to me.

Need more content from peaches but I'm slight scum lean. Her RVS vote seems a bit non random with the question to Alo.

To open up there is a slight scum lean onto peaches despite the need for content. This is objectively fine. You could argue adjectival usage of slight being more likely to come from scum throwing an eariler sl on their partner, but that's a can of worms. This is included because of what he does post this read.

A peaches lynch unfortunately doesn't give me anything moving forward, but there is a chance that she herself is scum so there's that.

This is a wishy washy post if you read into scum!peaches. This is at the same time voicing support for lynching peaches (the later half) while simultaneously saying the lynch isnt productive for town. It makes sense for scum!3b to do this for later needs since at this point peach is growing into a bigger question mark given activity. Later when/If that happens, a post like this allows him to gain some cred while not having to push his partner day 1.

Also continuing is the trend of the scum lean not being serious on peaches. Here are two posts where 3b clearly associations some suspicion with peaches but gives ways to get out of it as need be (need more content, she's a bad lynch, etc.

I gave that post about peaches giving me no info because I was considering to change my vote to her, it was more thinking out loud.

Again, downplaying his own strength in the scum lean.

Meanwhile while this goes on he diverts attention to alo.

Well it doesn't help that the one player peaches is engaging has her on ignore.

From now on I don't answer questions. Since it's ok for Alo not to it should be ok for everyone.

What?

But he is asking for the double standard you did where you said Alor is town once for it, and scum now for doing it? This currently has nothing to do with Alo, but with the double standard.

Yes I gave him the benefit of the doubt and even a townread for ignoring peaches question. But then he votes me for IGNORING HIS QUESTION (which I did answer btw). So that is not only hypocritical but extremely illogical.

But peaches also asked a second time, which he yet again ignores, so now unfortunately I will have to be that guy who tries to tunnel it out of him.

Town cred to LL for putting up with him for so long and voting him ahead of me finally seeing it.

This is what is called a chainsaw defense. A chainsaw defense is when you defend your scum partner by attacking another member of the town, usually but not always being the person who is leading the wagon on your partner.

Here not only does 3b do that but also justify the potential of furthering his read by saying "I have to be the guy that tunnels here". This gives him an excuse to drop his peaches scum lean and fully pursuit Alo. Alo who before hand he had a townlean on and only change it due to alo seemighly hypocritical logic.

Rereading, the tone sounds force and design to draw attention to this. I feel town!3b wouldnt overreact this much and push further more questions to figure out the root of why alo didn't respond instead of auto calling him scum.

InWho22 * - neutral
Peaches * notme0 - neutral
LuckyLuciano SeserOneHK - town
3bounty
Aloratom - scum
Yooh * - neutral
Kirari Momobami (SE) - town
humaneatingmonkey (SE) - scum
HoldenGolden (SE) - town

So we get to here. 3b null reading peaches solely because of a proxy reason of alo not answering a question. This is before peaches requests a replacement which implies 3b was still thinking peaches would be his scum partner later in the game, thus needing to keep her alive.

Couple that with the lack of focus on serious focus on cli2d and LL tracker claim most likely being legit stopping him from being paired, I see 3b pairing nicely with cil2d

[HoldenGolden]

Worthy of note, Holden was absent early in the day phase for an extended period of time. During that time, he posted elsewhere on site. Pairing this with the mod sending out notifications that day 2 was up, I see scum motive for avoiding the game but not town motive. In any case, if town!Kirari, then town!Holden feels good because while there is scum motive for Holden not posting during a scum!Kirari wagon, it seems odd for scum!Holden not to post during a town!Kirari wagon.

VOTE: Holden

If there is a tracker then mafia would know. Holden waiting for last to post is scum, I am willing to bet he is the one that did the night kill too.

If he knows there's a tracker it makes sense to wait it out before posting or else he'd be posting in vain due to a successful track on him.

Who's my partner then?

And why would I wait longer when it was clear that kirari was being pushed instead of anyone stealth pushing a track on me? I could of come in according to your logic right after LL voiced concerns about kirari as I would know then I wasnt tracked?

[HoldenGolden]

I love it how when I dont post in town games I get scum read for it yet when I purposely lurk in scum games I never get called for it

[3bounty]

Ive been waiting to gain more out of 3b before this, but I've been thinking cil2d based off his interactions.

First thing first is the lack of focus on analysising cil2d vote on alo despite either scum reading the rest of the wagon (HEM and Kirari, and he has soft SR me) or town reading them (LL). In fact, he has been silent for the most part about cil2d come day 2 outside of agreeing with his pr read arguement (which he says later insist worth talking about).

More standing out to me through is his day 1 interaction with peaches. I can see the later half of day 1 after cil2d replaces in going either way with his sheep vote onto cil2d. His peaches read progression is more important to me.

Need more content from peaches but I'm slight scum lean. Her RVS vote seems a bit non random with the question to Alo.

To open up there is a slight scum lean onto peaches despite the need for content. This is objectively fine. You could argue adjectival usage of slight being more likely to come from scum throwing an eariler sl on their partner, but that's a can of worms. This is included because of what he does post this read.

A peaches lynch unfortunately doesn't give me anything moving forward, but there is a chance that she herself is scum so there's that.

This is a wishy washy post if you read into scum!peaches. This is at the same time voicing support for lynching peaches (the later half) while simultaneously saying the lynch isnt productive for town. It makes sense for scum!3b to do this for later needs since at this point peach is growing into a bigger question mark given activity. Later when/If that happens, a post like this allows him to gain some cred while not having to push his partner day 1.

Also continuing is the trend of the scum lean not being serious on peaches. Here are two posts where 3b clearly associations some suspicion with peaches but gives ways to get out of it as need be (need more content, she's a bad lynch, etc.

I gave that post about peaches giving me no info because I was considering to change my vote to her, it was more thinking out loud.

Again, downplaying his own strength in the scum lean.

Meanwhile while this goes on he diverts attention to alo.

Well it doesn't help that the one player peaches is engaging has her on ignore.

From now on I don't answer questions. Since it's ok for Alo not to it should be ok for everyone.

What?

But he is asking for the double standard you did where you said Alor is town once for it, and scum now for doing it? This currently has nothing to do with Alo, but with the double standard.

Yes I gave him the benefit of the doubt and even a townread for ignoring peaches question. But then he votes me for IGNORING HIS QUESTION (which I did answer btw). So that is not only hypocritical but extremely illogical.

But peaches also asked a second time, which he yet again ignores, so now unfortunately I will have to be that guy who tries to tunnel it out of him.

Town cred to LL for putting up with him for so long and voting him ahead of me finally seeing it.

This is what is called a chainsaw defense. A chainsaw defense is when you defend your scum partner by attacking another member of the town, usually but not always being the person who is leading the wagon on your partner.

Here not only does 3b do that but also justify the potential of furthering his read by saying "I have to be the guy that tunnels here". This gives him an excuse to drop his peaches scum lean and fully pursuit Alo. Alo who before hand he had a townlean on and only change it due to alo seemighly hypocritical logic.

Rereading, the tone sounds force and design to draw attention to this. I feel town!3b wouldnt overreact this much and push further more questions to figure out the root of why alo didn't respond instead of auto calling him scum.

InWho22 * - neutral
Peaches * notme0 - neutral
LuckyLuciano SeserOneHK - town
3bounty
Aloratom - scum
Yooh * - neutral
Kirari Momobami (SE) - town
humaneatingmonkey (SE) - scum
HoldenGolden (SE) - town

So we get to here. 3b null reading peaches solely because of a proxy reason of alo not answering a question. This is before peaches requests a replacement which implies 3b was still thinking peaches would be his scum partner later in the game, thus needing to keep her alive.

Couple that with the lack of focus on serious focus on cli2d and LL tracker claim most likely being legit stopping him from being paired, I see 3b pairing nicely with cil2d

A for effort but as typical with mafia cases, it's flawed. You forgot the part where I was going to sheep Kirari and vote for Peaches/Clidd as preferred Dq lynch. Only unvoting because she did. You digged really deep into my ISO so you must have left it out intentionally.

[3bounty]

*D1 lynch not Dq

[HoldenGolden]

Wait LL are you talking 1260 about kirari always being town? I ctrl f your ISO and that's the only instance I sae you posting that kirari is always town.

Pedit: no I didnt I addressed it first thing

I can see the later half of day 1 after cil2d replaces in going either way with his sheep vote onto cil2d. His peaches read progression is more important to me.

Which if you really want more analysis of it im more than happy to provide why that is NAI to me.

[HoldenGolden]

"Typical mafia response to a case, shrug it off without reading"

[3bounty]

Wait LL are you talking 1260 about kirari always being town? I ctrl f your ISO and that's the only instance I sae you posting that kirari is always town.

Pedit: no I didnt I addressed it first thing

I can see the later half of day 1 after cil2d replaces in going either way with his sheep vote onto cil2d. His peaches read progression is more important to me.

Which if you really want more analysis of it im more than happy to provide why that is NAI to me.

So I was intending to sheep Kirari and get my partner lynched? How is that not important to a 3b/Clidd pair? And how is a read progression on a SHEEP vote more important?

[LuckyLuciano]

@Holden,

1063

As for the everything else that's been posted since my last post, I'm getting far too tired to read and process it. You know that feeling where you can still think your own thoughts but you can't understand other people's? Yeah, I need sleep.

[3bounty]

Holden also has a perfect scum spot on the Alo wagon.