Newbie 1996: GAME OVER

[Peter Pan]

btw

being real for a second here, town!kirari did a fantastic job from start of D2 until her replace-out

in a world of scum!kirari, it was a masterclass

mvp of this game for sure

[humaneatingmonkey]

it's weird that i'm not townreading Peter Pan when that shouldn't be possible.

[humaneatingmonkey]

i'm gonna find out why this is weird after Kirari replacement appears.

[humaneatingmonkey]

We should just assume that 3b is being bussed by their partner right now. We should all ask when did bussing start to happen.

[humaneatingmonkey]

@HEM is clidd off the table for you because he had an opportunity to hammer either of Kirari or 3B and did not?

the not hammering was NAI for me. I would imagine that scum would telegraph their "town POV" of why they hammered, so it's less suspicious. it was the timing of the replacement that locked clidd for me.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Would scum!LL replace out of a game where he is likely to win? currently entertaining Column C scenarios. I'm not townreading Peter Pan's recent posts. :/

[Tuxedo Mask]

Isn't he nearly a confirmed power role?

[humaneatingmonkey]

Is he? I'm revisiting Kirari's point about column C, and now I kinda want to know what Kirari's replacement has to say about it.

[Tuxedo Mask]

He replaced Lucky, Lucky claimed Tacker. Hasn't been a CC. So, yeah.

[Tuxedo Mask]

I'm sorry, I'm dumb. On the same page as you now. Okay, gotta read.

[Peter Pan]

We should just assume that 3b is being bussed by their partner right now. We should all ask when did bussing start to happen.

Lemme show you. It's actually super obvious

[Peter Pan]

Up until around here, both 3B and Holden are like half distancing, half supporting the kirari lynch. Neither is doing much and both are just kind of waiting for town to find a hammer there.

Then you guys start getting wise and you make this post and the rest in this series:

Like an old fool once told, I'd rather lynch scum than town. I think Kirari is town based on her reactions to her wagon, and the gamestate that surrounded it. That's what was wrong from this game.

I am arguing that Kirari is town, mafia counts on Kirari's lynch while the town polcy lynches her, and that the mafia chooses to get towncred by distancing themselves from Kirari's eventual lynch.

I think town!Kirari can survive LYLO more so than me, Holden or clidd who you have all painted as scum based on her flip.

[other posts in this series i didn't quote]

and now everyone agrees!

this really feels like a machination.

This is what causes distancing between 3B and Holden. I think, with 3B getting lots of flak all game, the new plan became for holden to vote 3B, 3B to vote kirari, and that would set GH up to win the game regardless of how clidd/town hammered. Here's the rest of how it starts. After 3B's vote, it continues for the rest of the day, and as kirari pointed out, none of 3B's line of play from here out ever made sense.

and now everyone agrees!

this really feels like a machination.

No they dont.

I'm thinking about my town!kirari read while simultaneously catching up and ignoring my zoom class

Worthy of note, Holden was absent early in the day phase for an extended period of time. During that time, he posted elsewhere on site. Pairing this with the mod sending out notifications that day 2 was up, I see scum motive for avoiding the game but not town motive. In any case, if town!Kirari, then town!Holden feels good because while there is scum motive for Holden not posting during a scum!Kirari wagon, it seems odd for scum!Holden not to post during a town!Kirari wagon.

So I'm scum lurking to gague town's appeal of my partner's lynch and then who decided to take the hard stance against bussing my partner who if they were to flip red, unlikely the majority of the thread, makes me look town given my day 1 interactions with them?

I dont post always in a particular game when I'm on because I'm not always in a mood to play them which can be a number of reasons.

he got one thing incorrect. you're not partners with Kirari. you're partners with 3b.

Worthy of note, Holden was absent early in the day phase for an extended period of time. During that time, he posted elsewhere on site. Pairing this with the mod sending out notifications that day 2 was up, I see scum motive for avoiding the game but not town motive. In any case, if town!Kirari, then town!Holden feels good because while there is scum motive for Holden not posting during a scum!Kirari wagon, it seems odd for scum!Holden not to post during a town!Kirari wagon.

VOTE: Holden

If there is a tracker then mafia would know. Holden waiting for last to post is scum, I am willing to bet he is the one that did the night kill too.

If he knows there's a tracker it makes sense to wait it out before posting or else he'd be posting in vain due to a successful track on him.

and it just continues from here. Also don't forget day one when you had an epiphany about 3B being scum and then holden was like "wait what? and started trying to distract from that.

[HoldenGolden]

Up until around here, both 3B and Holden are like half distancing, half supporting the kirari lynch. Neither is doing much and both are just kind of waiting for town to find a hammer there.

So I wasnt actively fighting the kirari lynch by questioning both yooh and my suppose scum partner, the latter of whom I focused more on and gave reasons why they are scum?

D2 alone I've done:
Fight kirari wagon, yooh/3b suspicions, debated the anti town gambit with cli2d, attempted to cool down the kirari/LL fight passively, fully pushed 3b further, gave out a scum pairing, made an entire day 1 analysis of Monkeys play, tried to force people to give stances on kirari to prevent scum wishy washy them till lylo, and reanalysize cli2d play?

Like you are painting that I actively sat around and did nothing when that is false.

As for the quoted post about my reevaluation of kirari, yes, surprisingly an uncced tracker claim with a non guilty check which caused the entire game to decay warrant me to at least rethink the slot quite like everyone else not named kirari and LL.

And back to the day 1 thing? I already spoke that I did in fact actually talk to monkey about 3b with his 3b/LL association. This would be a fine point if kirari wasnt making entirely unsupported claims about someone being scum at the time? Do you think town!me would just ignore that on d1 especially?

Like the entire idea I'm scum with 3b makes no sense objectively. I come in, fight the mislynch being handed to us by town, force myself onto my partner, and then commit to lynching them while simultaneously shrinking my scum pool by town reading monkey and saying he cannot be scum with 3b, solidifying my town read on kirari, and even undermining my association read with cli2d?

Even if you think we are distancing or w/e, scum!me would be backing myself into a corner where mathematically I cannot secure enough mislynches by choice.

[HoldenGolden]

i'm gonna find out why this is weird after Kirari replacement appears.

Why is it dependent on the kirari replacement?

Honestly I'm finding the replacements harder to read since they have the ability to read d1 and up to this point d2 objectively. It's what I learned back in my newbie game as scum replacing in. It's much easier to read the game when you arent responsible for advancing it further at that given point unlike if you have to formulate a response to keep pushing.

It's nothing nobody can do as it's the nature of replacements in general.

As for the whole pan seems scummy. So did LL even post claim. I still think that the suppose Gambit of scum claiming tracker to push an non incremidenting check is quite flawed. While there can be explainations for why tracker doesnt die tonight (rbed and someone more widely town read is picked off like monkey assuming 3b =/= rb), LL really went all in on his kirari tunnel while only providing small instances of being able to push others (me) which would fall apart if kirari flips town.

Although Pan is undermining this by doing it (having his scum pool include four people), I think the logic is still valid retrospectively.

Do you disagree with this monkey?

[HoldenGolden]

We should just assume that 3b is being bussed by their partner right now. We should all ask when did bussing start to happen.

I mean it would be kinda obvious that 3b sensing the writing on the wall would instruct his partner replacing in to bus him. It's also why it's been more quiet since the replacements have come in probably.

The issue is that 3b is a scum read that makes sense. There are other things to look for than solely when did the bussing started.

[Peter Pan]

I understand that you talked to it, and I apologize for not being convinced, but hear me out.

Kirari was obv!town by the end
Clidd is lock!town by the time he replaces out
Yoon is very likely town by his VT claim which really really doesn't make sense from scum there
if 3B is scum, monkey is almost certainly town from the D1 interactions.

Which leaves you as the partner

If 3B is somehow town, I guess we're looking at Monkey + HG, which I don't really like as a pairing, or we have to bring yoon/clidd back into the scum pool, and I don't like those options at all, either.

So if you want to convince me you're town, I really need you to break my poe rather than explain your play.

[humaneatingmonkey]

are we allowed to invite people to replace into Kirari's slot? lol

[humaneatingmonkey]

@MOD are you allowed to hardrecruit people into playing this game?

[Elmo TeH AzN]

@MOD are you allowed to hardrecruit people into playing this game?

Nope But I may have OUR FINAL REPLACEMENT. But On A lighter Note. Enjoy The Randomness I found on Youtube.

[HoldenGolden]

I understand that you talked to it, and I apologize for not being convinced, but hear me out.

Kirari was obv!town by the end
Clidd is lock!town by the time he replaces out
Yoon is very likely town by his VT claim which really really doesn't make sense from scum there
if 3B is scum, monkey is almost certainly town from the D1 interactions.

Which leaves you as the partner

If 3B is somehow town, I guess we're looking at Monkey + HG, which I don't really like as a pairing, or we have to bring yoon/clidd back into the scum pool, and I don't like those options at all, either.

So if you want to convince me you're town, I really need you to break my poe rather than explain your play.

See I have no qualms with the PoE read as this game is hard af, but dont go "it's super obvious" -> well actually it is POE. You are leaving yourself open to conformational bias by trying to do that.

And ironically my plan has nothing to do with breaking that PoE per say. All town needs to agree here on is who certainly cannot be scum. That's why I want monkey for example to discuss my LL point, because then if we all agree on it, we tighten the noose around scum.

Assuming 3B is scum:
-Cli2d I can protest will flip town since post my read they only made moves to reduce their abilities to play if they were scum (flipping their reads on both me and Monkey post my wall of text on him). Add any other numerous reasons to this.
-monkey + 3b doesnt make sense.
-kirari and 3b doesnt make sense and town!kirari is very likely

This leaves me, you, and Yooh/planes.

If we all agree on one of us being town, then we win. Mafia cannot survive enough lynches to win as they need two successful mislynches to go off. It will be a game of attrition.

[HoldenGolden]

i'm gonna find out why this is weird after Kirari replacement appears.

Why is it dependent on the kirari replacement?

Honestly I'm finding the replacements harder to read since they have the ability to read d1 and up to this point d2 objectively. It's what I learned back in my newbie game as scum replacing in. It's much easier to read the game when you arent responsible for advancing it further at that given point unlike if you have to formulate a response to keep pushing.

It's nothing nobody can do as it's the nature of replacements in general.

As for the whole pan seems scummy. So did LL even post claim. I still think that the suppose Gambit of scum claiming tracker to push an non incremidenting check is quite flawed. While there can be explainations for why tracker doesnt die tonight (rbed and someone more widely town read is picked off like monkey assuming 3b =/= rb), LL really went all in on his kirari tunnel while only providing small instances of being able to push others (me) which would fall apart if kirari flips town.

Although Pan is undermining this by doing it (having his scum pool include four people), I think the logic is still valid retrospectively.

Do you disagree with this monkey?

So monkey and everyone else, let's get the ball rolling. Yes or no on my take on LL's actions.

Who here disagrees with townkirari? If so, what faults in my and others theory do you see?

[3bounty]

What's up guys the game start yet?

[HoldenGolden]

@MOD are you allowed to hardrecruit people into playing this game?

Nope But I may have OUR FINAL REPLACEMENT. But On A lighter Note. Enjoy The Randomness I found on Youtube.

Can it be a RAS account so we can get cleared slots through underground tactics

[HoldenGolden]

What's up guys the game start yet?

You mean tonight's poker game? There is a spot left.

Depends if you are willing to bet your soul tho.

[3bounty]

What's up guys the game start yet?

You mean tonight's poker game? There is a spot left.

Depends if you are willing to bet your soul tho.

All in.

Now, time to catch your partner.