Jigsaw's Revenge - Game Over


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Post Post #2275 (ISO) » Sun May 03, 2020 7:41 pm

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 2234, GuiltyLion wrote:so a few fundamental flaws with the initial case and why I'm not convinced by it, chunked into a few posts for readability:
In post 1813, Battle Mage wrote:
1. PT Behaviour on Day 1 and post-lynch:


I noted at outset of Day 2 his behaviour in PT is exactly what I would expect from him as scum (and only Momo's behaviour made me think he was clean).
He was initially not keen to throw suspicion on others in the hood, and just wanted everyone to follow him. He just 'assumed' Momo and I were town, and only suggested Pine was scum when Pine wouldn't toe the line. ABR was non-committal on my Momo scum-read, and didn't engage with it until after the flip. After the flip, he was excited and jubilant, and claimed credit for the lynch.
This doesn't match with what you said yesterday:
In post 1701, Battle Mage wrote:I mean, ABR is in a hood with me (and formerly Momo-scum), I can tell you with absolute confidence that the way Momo acted towards ABR in that PT, is NOT the way scum acts towards a partner. Is it conceivably possible ABR is scum? Yes. Is it remotely likely? No. Should we be discussing it today? Obviously not.

You don't mention Dany at all, despite the fact that he has been a big focal point today. Instead, I assume he is your unnamed 2nd favourite lynch for today?
Also note the last bit here ^ shading Blake on not pushing Dany hard enough? Good to remember if/when Dany flips red.

You also doubled down on this when pressed by Blake:
In post 1714, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 1710, Blake Belladonna wrote: Battle Mage.

Answer the question.
There's no question here. Let me ask you something instead - how do you think I could have confidence in anything you say when you don't read my posts properly and with due respect? when you have not engaged with the trends and key issues in the game? and when you are trying to waste time and obfuscate affairs by throwing shade at people who we are clearly not lynching today?

This conversation is a waste of time. I know you are smarter than this, and so I have to believe there's a chance you are scum protecting Xtoxm, but I'll lynch him first to find out.
[question above referring to why BM is sure momo/ABR are not buddies]

Boy, sure is a shame you didn't elaborate on why ABR/momo could not possibly be partners yesterday!
Simple - I was wrong yesterday, as I already acknowledged, and re-read the interaction at night partly because of what Blake had said yesterday as I'd begun to doubt my own interpretation.
In post 2234, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 1813, Battle Mage wrote:
2. Flavour:


As noted in my setup theory, I think Amanda Young is highly likely in the game, as a survivor. ABR has instead claimed, in the PT, that he is Corbett Denlon - the child of 2 confirmed townies. She was not a prominent feature of the film franchise, so I'm not sure she would be a character in the game, especially given both her parents were. She was also never subject to Jigsaw's traps, so I wouldn't really call her a 'survivor' at all, and she'd be way way down on the list of likely survivor characters compared to Amanda Young. Gut says it MUST be a fakeclaim.
So the argument here (built off the setup spec), is basically that ABR's claim cannot be true because she was not a prominent feature of the film franchise, and that she doesn't belong in the survivor group here. It's already been covered by MT in , I'm not convinced by this and I generally don't support flavor cases to begin with, the mod gives fakeclaims so by definition scum cannot/should not be caught by virtue of flavor claim alone.
We've had a long discussion about this, and you'll have noted that this is not the final conclusion. The key point is that it is far more likely in flavour/mech terms that there are 2 scum in the survivor hood. You've straw-manned me here.
In post 2234, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 1813, Battle Mage wrote:
3. PT Behaviour Night 1 onwards:


During Night 1, ABR suddenly became frantically active in the PT, having neglected it for a while before that (me and Pine were both stuck in traps at this point of course). He claimed his role and flavour, and also claimed that Xtoxm was a "mailman" (incidentally, not what he flipped), and then gave the story I repeated yesterday in order to make me suspect Xtoxm, which on reflection may not have been true. He was not keen on my suggestion of lynching those not in a PT, which suggests if ABR flips scum, there is some more credence to it. I made it clear that I didn't trust him (by not reciprocating his claim, or sharing info about what happened to me in my trap), and since then he has become very angry and aggressive in the PT.
Unfortunately none of us can verify this, so, not sure why you are using it in your case. It also feels misreppy throughout - "frantically" active, the shade about 'mailman' semantics (effectively, yes, Xtoxm
was
a mailman), 'very' angry/aggressive.
Any case should be honest and reflect what you know. As I'm probably as close to confirmed town as it gets, don't you think it's useful if I give a detailed account of what happened in the PT as I'm the only one left? You can't judge if it's "misreppy" without being there, so that's an odd argument to make.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #2276 (ISO) » Sun May 03, 2020 7:42 pm

Post by iDanyboy »

I think BM’s case on ABR is good. Now him trying to get any lynch through doesn’t help that. I don’t for what possible reason he is getting so angry at BM. Him not addressing BM’s case and just attacking him instead of the argument. I think BM and ABR have very similar play styles and to see ABR get so angry at a miss lynch doesn’t add up. You will miss lynch as town and I’m sure ABR has so why is he so mad at BM for?
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Post Post #2277 (ISO) » Sun May 03, 2020 7:46 pm

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 2241, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 2237, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 2151, Morning Tweet wrote:
In post 2147, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 2015, Morning Tweet wrote:
Spoiler: new reads
TOWN BLOCK //
Battle Mage

HEAVY TOWN LEAN //
ABR, GeorgeBailey,
VaultDweller


MEDIUM TOWN LEAN //
Vecna,
GuiltyLion


WEAK TOWN LEAN //
BBMolla


Unsure //
pisskop,
Gamma


SOMEWHAT BAD LOOKS //
Blake, Davesaz, Drixx

TIME-OUT //
iDanyboy

Changes made in bold. No big analysis done here, just reaction changes made in light of recent events.

We need new material aside from BM's ABR case and my iDanyboy case. All you need to know about those should be in the last few pages (in theory). Let's have another multidimentional day like d1, rather than d2
I’m curious, what caused me and BB to shift here?

Also not a fan of what feels like you short selling the ABR case.
Vault going way up made me want to reconsider my weaker reads. A lot of people expressing scumreads on BB made me feel insecure about my read on him.
The odds of scum never putting a townie in a trap increased my paranoia on GL
. You i had really weak reasoning for town leaning so i decided it wasnt smart to put you above unsure.

im just generally not a fan of the case!
wrt the bolded, what do you make of the fact ABR hasn’t been in one either despite being much more vocal/influential than GL?
In post 1959, Morning Tweet wrote:I think the biggest part of your case that interests me is how if Amanda Young is in this game, she'd need to be in the Survivor hood. If momo's flip is any indication, anyway. His real role (Logan) and his fake role (Simone) were both survivors.

AH. I just realized. Amanda isnt a Jigsaw survivor. Not in the way your hood implies it. Your hood is a scene from Saw 3D. It's a bunch of people sitting in chairs at a church in a kind of support group.

https://sawfilms.fandom.com/wiki/Jigsaw_Survivor_Group

Logan Nelson is not a jigsaw survivor as described by your hood. Simone is.


BM, are you on this list of characters?

Spoiler:
Bobby Dagen
Simone
Mallick
Emily
Brad
Ryan
Tara Abbott
Lawrence Gordon
Addy
Sidney


If you are not, then the flavour is not perfectly linked. Thereby meaning ABR's claim (Corlett Denlon) not being linked doesnt matter.
Sorry I referenced the wrong post earlier regarding all the flavor spec, this is the post that defeats BM's flavor argument.
This is inaccurate. I think MorningTweet has acknowledged that my flavour argument stands up based on evidence at the moment (she just believes that there is more evidence out there we haven't seen which will eventually disprove it. So you've slipped up here.

Think that's all for now. For what it's worth, I could still see Dany flipping scum, with ABR using that as a platform to get himself back in town's good books. But I'm not certain of it.

Please, anyone town reading this, do
eventually
refer back to my case and theory, and hopefully town can cruise to a relatively easy win.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #2278 (ISO) » Sun May 03, 2020 7:47 pm

Post by Battle Mage »

In other news, I can't believe after all the effort of yesterday, we're back to lynching in the 8-person hood. :facepalm:
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #2279 (ISO) » Sun May 03, 2020 8:24 pm

Post by Drixx »

In post 2276, iDanyboy wrote:I think BM’s case on ABR is good. Now him trying to get any lynch through doesn’t help that. I don’t for what possible reason he is getting so angry at BM. Him not addressing BM’s case and just attacking him instead of the argument. I think BM and ABR have very similar play styles and to see ABR get so angry at a miss lynch doesn’t add up. You will miss lynch as town and I’m sure ABR has so why is he so mad at BM for?
Setup speculation and flavor speculation aren't a case. BM's posting today is a story. It doesn't have any rational basis. In some posited world where ABR were scum, BM is essentially a blind squirrel.
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Post Post #2280 (ISO) » Sun May 03, 2020 8:51 pm

Post by iDanyboy »

That’s only one of his points, he has other points that make sense if you ignore set up speculation, and it doesn’t explain ABR’s reaction either.
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Post Post #2281 (ISO) » Sun May 03, 2020 9:40 pm

Post by VaultDweller »

I'm back. I see there's like a million new posts since I last read. Won't be catching up any time soon. Anyone care to give me the tl;dr?
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Post Post #2282 (ISO) » Sun May 03, 2020 10:53 pm

Post by Vecna »

In post 2214, Drixx wrote:Can we lynch Battle Mage? I'm getting super duper scum vibes there.
You havent participated in the game at all, and then you come out with this?

Whats scummy, why, how?
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Post Post #2283 (ISO) » Sun May 03, 2020 10:55 pm

Post by Vecna »

In post 2219, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 2029, Battle Mage wrote:The only thing to say on this, is I am convinced ABR is scum. ABR seems to think I'm town, although did also crumb that I was Jigsaw (not sure why).
This dual approach is actually a scumtell and ABR’s actions recently add to this particular issue

The fact ABR didn’t even seem to think to push BM until Drixx initiated the idea is super awful. It also, despite my initial shocked response, probably indicates Drixx being Town.
Really? Or he's just fighting auto loss?

If BM is town and ABR flips scum here, youre pretty much cleared.

We have me/VD that are semi and clear

Anyways, I did not like that drixx post at all
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Post Post #2284 (ISO) » Sun May 03, 2020 10:56 pm

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 2281, VaultDweller wrote:I'm back. I see there's like a million new posts since I last read. Won't be catching up any time soon. Anyone care to give me the tl;dr?
Vecna is your son, and has confirmed you town.

ABR is scum.

2 of Pisskop, BBMolla, Guilty Lion are scum.

There's 1 other scum in your hood, as yet undetermined, but probably Danyboy.

Drixx is probably just misguided town.

We're hopefully lynching ABR today.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #2285 (ISO) » Sun May 03, 2020 10:57 pm

Post by Vecna »

In post 2225, Gamma Emerald wrote:
In post 2058, pisskop wrote:awww shit.

ABR claimed neighbor without power, didnt he . . .
In post 2059, Vecna wrote:Yet ABR claims to be a bland child VT with no abilities whatsoever
I sure hope to see your votes on ABR soon if you haven’t done so already
GE's progression is also super over the top-hyped though
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Post Post #2286 (ISO) » Sun May 03, 2020 10:58 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 2281, VaultDweller wrote:I'm back. I see there's like a million new posts since I last read. Won't be catching up any time soon. Anyone care to give me the tl;dr?
I'm seconding this.
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Post Post #2287 (ISO) » Sun May 03, 2020 10:59 pm

Post by Battle Mage »

Here you go Blake:
In post 2284, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 2281, VaultDweller wrote:I'm back. I see there's like a million new posts since I last read. Won't be catching up any time soon. Anyone care to give me the tl;dr?
Vecna is your son, and has confirmed you town.

ABR is scum.

2 of Pisskop, BBMolla, Guilty Lion are scum.

There's 1 other scum in your hood, as yet undetermined, but probably Danyboy.

Drixx is probably just misguided town.

We're hopefully lynching ABR today.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #2288 (ISO) » Sun May 03, 2020 11:01 pm

Post by Battle Mage »

if Drixx and MorningTweet are town as I suspect, I don't think we'll get the ABR lynch through, so have to hope Dany is scum, and then once I flip, people actually wake up and lynch ABR.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #2289 (ISO) » Sun May 03, 2020 11:18 pm

Post by Vecna »

In post 2244, GuiltyLion wrote:BM I hope you are paying attention to how much Gamma is sucking up to you right now
Also to how GL is actually reasoning around this entire wagon.

Because anyone actually scumreading this slot must be playing another game than I am.

(also, thanks for putting in the hard work GL)
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Post Post #2290 (ISO) » Sun May 03, 2020 11:21 pm

Post by Vecna »

In post 2247, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 2046, Gamma Emerald wrote:Also the key giving can be roleblocked so I don’t think we can try to conf anything off the key so never mind the idea of sparing ABR for the key
eh actually alright this is fair and I missed this when skimming earlier
What if the key is just a scum tool?

So they can put themselves into traps, have it announced but walk out while fooling everyone that theyre part of it.

It makes very little sense for his actual victims to have keys to the traps.

What if Gamma actually scumclaimed with his key shit?

No idea why he'd give it to ABR though, unless he's bussing here.

The way GE is approaching this feels like he's actively bussing, or trying to fire up a TvT

Not sure which it is exactly
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Post Post #2291 (ISO) » Sun May 03, 2020 11:24 pm

Post by Vecna »

In post 2252, Drixx wrote:The personal attacks and angry posting are highlights of ABR's town play from what I remember.
You really cannot tell me that someone that does it all the time as town cannot at least make a semi-decent attempt to duplicate that

Like, this is a very surface level read Drixx. Id like to think you'd be able to do better?
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Post Post #2292 (ISO) » Sun May 03, 2020 11:26 pm

Post by VaultDweller »

In post 2284, Battle Mage wrote: Vecna is your son,
:eek: He's not mine.
In post 2284, Battle Mage wrote: and has confirmed you town.
Feels good!
In post 2284, Battle Mage wrote: We're hopefully lynching ABR today.
VOTE: ABR

Until I get a grip on the game
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Post Post #2293 (ISO) » Sun May 03, 2020 11:34 pm

Post by Vecna »

In post 2281, VaultDweller wrote:I'm back. I see there's like a million new posts since I last read. Won't be catching up any time soon. Anyone care to give me the tl;dr?
I conftowned you. Youre my dad

Hi dad

BM is making a reasonably ok case for ABR scum. GE is acting odd. Drixx is acting odd. MT and GL are still obvtown.

Danny is probably still an easy mislynch
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Post Post #2294 (ISO) » Sun May 03, 2020 11:44 pm

Post by Vecna »

Guess we get to share a trap tonight now

Sure a lot of people dying every night. Even if we lynch scum every day going forward, if that pace keeps being the way it was, we wont win in time
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Post Post #2295 (ISO) » Sun May 03, 2020 11:57 pm

Post by VaultDweller »

Hopefully the number of traps is proportional to the number of living scum.
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Post Post #2296 (ISO) » Mon May 04, 2020 1:54 am

Post by Albert B. Rampage »

In post 2295, VaultDweller wrote:Hopefully the number of traps is proportional to the number of living scum.
Pretty much the scum are trying to mislynch today for flavor reasons and have confbiased some confused townies.

I am obviously town and lynchiny danny scum.
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Post Post #2297 (ISO) » Mon May 04, 2020 1:55 am

Post by Albert B. Rampage »

In post 2293, Vecna wrote:BM is making a reasonably ok case for ABR scum.
Explain why you think I'm scum in your own words please.
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Post Post #2298 (ISO) » Mon May 04, 2020 1:58 am

Post by Albert B. Rampage »

In post 2292, VaultDweller wrote:
In post 2284, Battle Mage wrote: Vecna is your son,
:eek: He's not mine.
In post 2284, Battle Mage wrote: and has confirmed you town.
Feels good!
In post 2284, Battle Mage wrote: We're hopefully lynching ABR today.
VOTE: ABR

Until I get a grip on the game
Are you sure you want to vote with the scum so easily?

You should listen to reasonable players like MT, Drixx, GuiltyLion, and me.

Scum most likely is in BM/danny/gamma/blake.
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Post Post #2299 (ISO) » Mon May 04, 2020 2:01 am

Post by Gamma Emerald »

In post 2282, Vecna wrote:
In post 2214, Drixx wrote:Can we lynch Battle Mage? I'm getting super duper scum vibes there.
You havent participated in the game at all, and then you come out with this?

Whats scummy, why, how?
What???


Despite being the hood rep Drixx hasn’t done anything?

Also @VD BM came forward with a case on ABR and it’s been me and BM vs. ABR and MT for a lot of it
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