if you want me to vote somewhere else today, you gotta help me find the case, mate
that's all im saying
Newbie 1996: GAME OVER
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Peter Pan
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Peter Pan
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humaneatingmonkey
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humaneatingmonkey
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Peter Pan
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humaneatingmonkey
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Tuxedo Mask
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Tuxedo Mask Goon Tuxedo Mask
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Nowhere. I didn't get much of a response, just HEM saying the game was all WIFOM.In post 2091, HoldenGolden wrote:
Where have you moved to since 2081?In post 2087, Tuxedo Mask wrote:
Don't rush him. He's a monkey. You should be impressed with his output so far.In post 2086, Rectiplanes wrote:This "moment" has lasted since 2pm.
I think Yooh's exit from the game looks bad. Everyone disagrees so I'm tabling it.
Then, I thought we were trying to reach an agreement. Which to me is heavily dependent on where people fall on LL and Yooh's gambits. If people are in agreement with its town then if you're not scum it must be HEM. If we don't think they're town then HeM is, and we decided between LL and Yooh.-
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HoldenGolden
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HoldenGolden Mafia Scum HoldenGolden
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I'm still here and working. Finished VCA portion. Stopping to eat dinner before continuing.In post 2111, humaneatingmonkey wrote:Honestly just waiting for his last will post so we can flip him. I think it's better to do this whole thing tomorrow.
Will be late tonight. Apologize for delaying the day out; afternoon got a bit hectic and couldnt get to laptop till a hour ago.-
Tuxedo Mask
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Tuxedo Mask Goon Tuxedo Mask
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Sure, hopefully, Pan can be convinced of the same. But more hopefully we don't reach that point at all.In post 2112, humaneatingmonkey wrote:TM, vote Planes tomorrow if I die. I think the VT gambit to secure a mislynch and clear a tracker could come more from newbie scum, than LL fakeclaiming a tracker and then replacing out even though he's got the win secured.
That is if HG isn't our scum today.-
Rectiplanes
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Rectiplanes Goon Rectiplanes
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In a TM/Pan/Planes final three, I vote for Pan, you follow HEM's advice and vote for me, and Pan will vote for me and town loses.
There is no way scum-me would have left Pan alive after last night. There is absolutely no way I would leave an un-CC'd power role to enter the final three after a possible Night 3, either. But I don't have any scum games to link to and show you how I'd think in those situations... so. Yeah. If LL fakeclaimed and flaked after getting in a won situation, I guess he really had it in a won situation.
I do ask fellow town, if there is a tomorrow, to consider the possibility of a column C, two goon, no tracker world.-
HoldenGolden
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HoldenGolden Mafia Scum HoldenGolden
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Holden's Last Will Part I: VCA Overview
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I'm going to be breaking this up into six parts (which will be posted back to back in rapid succession hopefully) with 1 being an overview of VCA with a focus on 3b's actions, 2-5 will be each of the remaining slot's ISO, and then the last will be a conclusion/final read list. I am trying to reread the majority of the game in one major sitting, so I am sure there will be minor mistakes as me missing a reason here or there. I will touch upon Day 3 play and the night kill here or there in the player ISO's, but I've decided to focus mainly on day 1 and day 2 due to missing content from some replacements and the WIFOM night kill on Kirari messing up my overall analysis. I do think now level headed that the WIFOM and the stress of trying to figure out scum in a pool of town looking folk is affecting my ability to read the game.
Anyways time to begin. VCA this game is....messy given replacements, site flak, or other periods of inactivity from players fudging the ability to gleam anything. But I am lost at this point so w/e, lets waste 3 hours of my life.
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Day 1 VCA:
Initial RVS and LL's wagon "dynamic" will be omitted. I do think it has value to discuss LL's focus on the wagon just not from a VCA stand point. I will be coloring myself green as A) I know my alignment and B) you will know my alignment come soon enough. The first vote count after decent intial discussion is as follow:
Spoiler:
The wagons equalized out into a very advantageous position for scum early on where, aside from Inwho22 wagon, there is at least 1 town spread across all wagons making the pressure on scum vote wise low. Scum want this; as it robs town from forming wagons to apply pressure for reactions while also making sure it won't swing the spotlight onto them. Although there are still RVS votes out there (namely my vote for example), plenty of votes had backing behind it off of the HEM/LL interaction and other reads as well.
From here, we see that the wagon's begin to consolidate more by the next VCA:
Spoiler:
Unfortunately, none of the remaining slots contributed to the consolidation as only flipped town did. Unless there is a strong reason for scum to hunt down a person d1, I don't see them actively moving the gamestate via wagon pressure. So no dice there. However, Peach's wagon gains incredible steam at this point fully without mafia's vote support. What we do see is that our flipped scum 3b is currently off wagon, and more importantly, is refuting his support for a peaches wagon:
Spoiler:
I brought this up way back when I first tossed the idea of a cli2d/3b scum team, but I only considered it from 3b's perspective on his indifference to the lynch. 3b's soft defense here of the slot can be either one of two things. One, he is distancing himself from a mislynch or two, is trying to protect scum!peach. To solve this, I looked at the other player's in question [HEM/LL/Yooh] to see if they supported the peach wagon any during that time. I feel mafia would at least consider planting the ability to swing to the Peach's wagon given they knew the wagon was entirely being driven by town's on will.
Spoiler: Player's stances
As shown, not one of the 3 wanted to lynch peach but also actively discredited the lynch itself in various means. Yooh/Monkey gave a general reflection while LL's was more nuanced.I find it hard to believe now knowing the peach wagon was entirely town that, if one of them is scum, didn't try to at least leave the door open given 3b already being committed to the off wagon.Meanwhile, this points more to the later case where 3b is defending scum!peaches and his reaction is his misinterpretation of the level of pressure on his partnerpeach/cli2d/Tuxedo. Ironically, LL called this earlier and now the wagon knowledge actually supports it.
By the time of the next VCA, the peach wagon disappears and is replaced by the Alo wagon:
Spoiler:
It's impossible at this point to assume anything of Peaches vote given their inactivity at the time of this VC and in general d1. 3b's vote regardless is quite interesting as not only does it pushes the wagon into the majority, but its typically the position where scum needs to take if they want to push it as a mislynch according to wagon dynamics. As such, it can be determined that around this time 3b was at least voicing the mafia agenda to include the mislynch onto Alo.
Expanding this logic out to the same 3 pool, both LL and HEM suspected 3b at the time with HEM doing his infamous "town 3b -> oh wait guess whats scummy".The former (LL) I am only giving a bit of credit too as it was built into a lynch pin case that depended on Alo flipping red for LL to act despite his read not really being based on the need of Alo's role upon reread.The later makes no sense if 3b is trying to start securing a mislynch. Why try to redirect attention to your partner if he is going onto your chance at a mislynch? You could explain it perhaps as a mess up in read progression by monkey where he mistakenly townread 3b, but having just played with scum!monkey, he isn't thatincompetent.
In an aside, since it is important to this discussion, 3b does attempt to throw town cred at LL here:
Spoiler:
Which is odd in general but points to LL more likely to be town even if his stances isn't exactly aligning up all the way.
Yooh's response is delayed but is the opposite and defends scum!3b from HEM's flip. The manner he does it is both equal parts going after HEM and stating 3b vs Alo was a town interaction. Overall, I think his defense of 3b/push onto HEM is NAI.What it does reveal however is that Yooh's statement conflicts with 3b's proposed agenda.If scum is trying to push for the Alo mislynch, again, why flat out dismiss your chance to join it if need be? Scum does take polarizing stances sure, but given the growing pressure on what would be his partner 3b at the time, I doubt he cuts off his ability to join the wagon later down the line in order to save his partner and at least keeps the door open.If this is consistent, then I feel it overall points to town!yooh.
Wagon dynamics is uneventful VCA wise until peaches replacement. Kirari moves onto peaches. Then the strangest god damn thing happens and3b flips his entire stance on the peaches wagon and comes off the alo wagon to vote cli2d after his LL post:
Spoiler:
It is so fundamentally strange and forced that I even called him out for it at the time. If you haven't picked up, I am doing this stream of conscious style, so I guess we will see if this sticks around (hint it doesn't because 3b ends back onto the wagon). I want to say given how forced this appeals to be with no actual basis for the progression (or care for that matter) it was made by scum!3b to attempt to disassociate from how much he had started to do with the peach slot. With that said, its so god damn weird from a mafia PoV switching off the main mislynch target to vote cli2dWhen there was a mislynch building on kirari at the timethat I am at a lost to what it means. Maybe 3b had a magic 8 ball directing his vote.
LL at this time starts a flash wagon attempt on Kirari and flips on his stance towards 3b with the logic "if he is scum he is so bad that Ill be able to catch him day 2"
Spoiler:
Which is, while odd, not very helpful for scum!LL. He already had enough of a reason to be on Alo if the wagon swinged and could even settle on voting 3b if needed. Increasing your ability to be on a mislynch is nice, but I think its instead just town progression read wise.
....Ok? So it took one response by cli2d for it to go the way of the dudo bird after being so sure the slot was scum to the point of flipping the entire stance (3b) had on it? The whole progression feels off.
We then get to the next vote count:
Spoiler:
So meanwhile while all this is going on we see HEM on 3b. HEM expressed concerned about Kirari at this time, yet the strength projected by his 3b read makes it hard to assume he is trying to get off the 3b scum wagon.
Yooh makes a reads list (post 626) which is wishy washy like a washing machine. I shall remember to talk about it when [b]I look at his ISO, but VCA wise, its important that he shuts down a kirari AND Alo wagon now[/b]. With the context of scum!3b, this is the second time yooh shut down his ability to aid his partner despite not bussing him either (he town reads 3b as well in that post)
Spoiler: post 626
If the two are partners, and Yooh is going to take the stance against his partner, thenwhy not scum read him at this point?It makes no sense in a scum!yooh scum!3b world where yooh is left townsiding basically without trying to actively insert himself into a spot to gain town cred post his partner flipping (which is a possibility at this point, especially since he is taking the stance against him)
The moments after is the most hectic: Cli2d ends up dropping his Alo case at this point and votes him. LL unvotes Kirari to go onto Monkey just to unvote and vote Alo again with provoking from both monkey and Cli2d (the latter saying the flip helps his read). Monkey says its between 3b/Alo but wants to start a Kirari wagon. Alo comes in and votes Monkey for a horrible reason and promptly gets voted up.
Spoiler:
Monkey ends up going balls to the wall with the kirari wagon once people begin expressing town feelings for Alo. Going so much to unvote and actually join onto the wagon while attempting to attract others onto it. If Scum!Monkey was trying to justify being off wagon, I doubt he would do so with such conviction that could actually jeopardize the chance at the mislynch especially since 3b was also weaking the strength in the lynch (saying scum!alo would of claimed a PR).
Cli2d's and LL stance stayed consistent enough. Cli2d didn't budge because neither town nor scum cli2d had a reason to. LL near the end of day 1 gave me a headache rereading but didn't get a full chance to react to Monkey's wagon due to Kirari's hammer. Yooh wasn't a factor in this at all and only was found out day 2 to be working on posting something. All this points hardly to anything aside from more reason toTown!Monkey
Spoiler:
The real question here is this: Is scum both on the wagon or one on one off?
Which to answer is complicated given the suspect pool. Yooh afkness obscures rather or not he would stay off wagon truely, but he had already worked himself into a corner where voting Alo would be a contradiction in his core read progression. I already said why HEM's off wagon makes sense from a town PoV, so its down between cli2d who started the wagon a/b]nd Lucky. Given the fact that there is at least 3 townies voting off wagon out of 6 possible voters for the mislynch (not counting alo since he would never vote himself), that leaves scum only 3 sure votes on the alo wagon requiring them to double up on it (as I think it would be hard for them to predict Kirari's switch to the wagon that hammers it).
In which degree makes sense for bothScum!Cli2d's active solicitation of alo's wagon andScum!LLposition on the wagon to passively push it.
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Day 1 VCA Conclusion
HEM
Yooh
LL
Cli2d/Peaches
I think both HEM and Yooh, from VCA, have clear reasons why they are town given the Day 1 wagons. HEM's times being off wagon are justified and against what would be the scum agenda at the time. This, coupled with instances of preventing scum!3bs actions points to him being town. Likewise, Yooh consistent hard shut downs of the wagons 3b was pushing while not setting it up in a manner to benefit from a scum flip (townreading 3b) points to him being town too.
While having town instances day 1, there are several spots where some doubt on the LL slot is raised specially towards the end for being at a prime spot on the wagon for scum to ensure the alo mislynch given the # of townies off wagon + other oddies in his play. However, 3b's voting and interactions with the cli2d/peaches slot and the lack of clearing interactions via the other players heavily suggest them to be the last scum. While built more onto what 3b did, cli2d's position and behavior towards others during the alo wagon makes sense from the PoV of scum needing support to secure the mislynch.
Onto day 2-
HoldenGolden
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HoldenGolden Mafia Scum HoldenGolden
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(I ended up having to post that early due to Internet problems as I just lost half of the Day 2 VCA analysis and the continuation of HEM's ISO since my mobile hotspot turned off and I did not have them saved. Since I rather not lose the fully fleshed out VCA of day 1, I posted it while fixing the Day 2 one)-
HoldenGolden
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HoldenGolden
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HoldenGolden
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HoldenGolden Mafia Scum HoldenGolden
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Day 2 VCA
There are periods in this day where people are MIA or not much changes in the course of the VCA. That, or forgone conclusions are made unanimously with out of game interference (IE the 3b wagon/lynch and replacements coming in). As such, rather than try to mark and infer every single vote in Day 2, I am focusing on what I think is relevant. This is also so I don't end up rehashing how I was right day 2 on kirari and go on side-egotistical tangents. Moreover, Day 2 featured a lot of pseudo-voting (especially by 3b) where someone is pushed or projected to be equally as who they are wagoning without the person actually voting them. I find the intent to vote equally worthy of analysis as the actual act of voting, so with a day phase like Day 2 which was dominated largely by one wagon (kirari), I shall be using it.
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Area of Focus 1: Kirari Wagon Pile on
We all can collectively agree now that since Kirari flipped town, the earlier part of the wagon had at least one scum pushing it. Youwillbe agreeing come day 4 that both scum were indeed pushing Kirari. Before I talk about the initial reactions of the 4 suspects [Yooh/HEM/Cli2d/LL] I want to first talk about what I observed in 3b's reaction to the push. His first response to it is a whiteknighting defending kirari's hammering as scummy, yet it quickly changed gears to a focus on justifying his spot on the wagon where he later picks up on HEM's logic surrounding baiting the PRs.
Spoiler:
There's a solid 20 minute gap between the two posts where we see a shift in the mentality of his treatment of the Kirari slot. 3b's switch in tone showcases an underlying hint of opportunistic behavior. Its speculation,but I think this shows that scum wasn't expecting the wide support on a kirari wagon.As such, I don't find Yooh's clearly preplanned post voting and accusing scummy nor do I find HEM's bare bones call out bad either.
-LL's reactions does make sense from a mafia PoV as it shows opportunism, but then we find it was softing a reaction PR test on kirari
->LL's had a reason to already vote the slot and didn't need to bait out PR's given Yooh's antitown plan.
-Cli2d's reaction lines up while also showcasing more reasoning to doubt the PR logic
->scum was trying to paint kirari as scum while also discrediting the rest of the wagon's reason to vote
-->Reinserting the fact he scum reads him in a manner that shows more evaluation when in fact it is indifferent to what lead him to scumread kirari in his first post day 2. Leading to him looking like he is debating it rather than actually engaging and testing kirari like HEM/LL/Yooh.In post 940, clidd wrote:I was townreading her previously for the fearless way she is playing, but now I see that this is not exactly as relevant a criterion as I imagined.
Area of Focus 2: 3b's Vote progression
-insists on voting on the alo wagon
-> Does not focus on cli2d at any point of the analysis despite not townreading him day 2 and voting him day 1
-sheeps LL's reasoning on me not posting to see if tracker checked me
-> due to how this is done, I don't think the two are connected as scum!LL would of just told 3b to post it rather himself and frame it as his own criticism rather than posting it and then have sheep it in thread.
-> I think its done to to promote not having to scum read other slots
Area of Focus 3: 3b Vs Kirari
-wagon dynamics and formation
-> LL's death tunnel onto Kirari
--> instances where LL considers outside the wagon but doesn't push it. Can be scum indicative (pseudo-voting)
->HEM fence sitting
--> upon reread feels he is actually debating and confused given the response
--->Cli2d does fit underneath this umbrella, but spends time looking outside the two main wagons.
-Voting dynamics and positioning analysis (HEM town, Yooh afked and useless to analyze, LL vote makes sense but not AI, debating cli2d; stalling vs actual content reading)
Area of Focus 3.5: Cli2d's hammer
-Highlight Scum!Cli2d perspective on the hammer posts
-> Scum!Cli2d had to choose between hammering partner after being wishy washy on Kirari.
-> Lack of options do to townreading me and HEM; hard for him to try and chainsaw defense the wagon on 3b
-> Lack of hammering is more a realization of the need to go to late game as scum given the pressure on 3b, thus needs to look like he actually is considering and sweating the hammer-
HoldenGolden
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HoldenGolden Mafia Scum HoldenGolden
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Ill finish it tomorrow unless im lynched. However, I think it is clear who I am suspecting it to be (Tuxedo then Pan)
I am not considering replacements. Game is WIFOM as is, and I am not playing the guessing game anymore of "But X was in a winning spot and replaced out. Oh Y's tone reads legit and makes sense why they replaced out". One is wrong and they are all equally WIFOMY so its useless to work through.
I think it is worth pointing out that 3b Remained in the neutral position of Cli2d's read's list as well. Cli2d is a player that very clearly methodically, but it bothers me that he ignored that slot for so long despite stuff like 3b's vote unvote on him day 1.
I also forgot to put Yooh's rage post in there-
HoldenGolden
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HoldenGolden Mafia Scum HoldenGolden
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Lynching between planes/HEM is terrible given the day 1 interactions and consequences of their votes with what 3b was doing or in relationship to how they impacted him.
If I am lynched overnight. Good luck soilders. I've realized i've been lazy since the replacements when I shouldn't have been. You will win lylo.
The chicken god blesses you-
Peter Pan
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humaneatingmonkey
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HoldenGolden
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HoldenGolden Mafia Scum HoldenGolden
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Just finished my freshman year at university (English Ba/Chemistry BS) and about to start working as a Walmart stocker.
I got some stuff to do this morning, but afterwards I'll continue
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