mini 2140: partition (this is over)

[Raya36]

VOTE: group 1

I think this is the shortcut to victory.

I don't like Albert's insistence on group 1. I don't see any consideration of the risk of lynching that group and just running on the assumption that scum put 2 or 3 of themselves in there.

Safety in numbers.

This argument doesn't even make sense? I don't see how scum putting all three in one group being safe just because they have the numbers in that group.

I don't think Albert is scum but I don't like his push for group 1 and I don't think he's really considering the risk of it or the possibility that 2 or 3 scum aren't in the group. If he was scum trying to push a lynch on group 1 I don't think he would be this obvious about it.

I see. I liked how he was thinking about how to play the setup, which seemed natural. and he did end up saying to not lynch group 1 today

He ended up saying to not lynch group 1 unless we found 1 scum in there. Finding a town or two who look like scum in 8 players is very easy. Mafia wouldn't work if that wasn't the case every game. So, my fear is that he knows this and is eventually setting himself up to vote group 1 in the future.
Secondly, it doesn't consider the possibility of there being 1 scum in group 1 who acts like a "jester" of sorts.

This is an interesting thought. Townlean on Hoctac

Daenerys and I both agree the setup talk is getting overdone and is annoying.

I like Ame's 34 for trying to make progression.
In contrast enomis' 40 is bad. And I dislike their later posts too. The demoralization in 90 seems fake.
I also don't like Raya's 74. Lots of "uh huh"ing and easy agreements.
"I definitely agree we should scumhunt and choose the group we lynch based on who we think is scum."
like really?
Hoctac's 81 is a good explanation of why the mechanical discussion is pointless.
Morning Tweet needs to start scumhunting.

VOTE: enomis

-dragons

D&D is town for this. As I said earlier speculation of how scum are split can only get you so far. Scumhunting instead is town-oriented and I also like what they said as well.

I checked the other partition game from 2011 to see how it played out. Scum were spread out one was in group 1, one was in group 2, and another was in group 3. On the vote count there was a message on day 1 saying groups have changed and vote count got reset. A scum player got switched to another group and the group that got lynched on day 1 were all town. I wonder if the same thing is going to happen here. Lynching in group 1 does look risky if they are all town plus add the group change on day 1 if that happens. My guess is one scum will be in group 1, one in group 2, and another in group 3.

1 in group 2 is crazy, there would be confscum from PoV

Can you explain this?

Clidd and Albert for scum

What are your thoughts on Clidd's entrance?


Looking into group 2 and 3:

Group 2:
I don't think Albert is scum based on what I said at the start of this post.

Clidd's entrance seemed ok to me and his group analysis seemed town oriented. It was very straightforward and organized and summarized the options well. His posts after seemed good too.


Group 3:
dsj has only really done setup spec and nothing made me feel strongly either way so I only have a null read on him.

I don't like enomis insistence on not voting yourself. I also find it sus that the person he questions for that is also in his group. He is acting survivalist rather than being concerned about lynching scum. Enomis, if you scumread the other two players in your group would you vote for yourself then?

I still like Mohab's 58 and I think that's a town take on the situation. I like in their entrance post they try to steer the game away from diving too deep into the partitions. I do think it's a bit odd that she said this then dived straight into partition discussion. I think the vote on her own group is good as well assuming she thinks there's scum in her group. I'd like to hear about her reads in her group and reasoning for that vote.

VOTE: Group 3. This seems like the best chance we have at getting scum without risking losing the whole game. I also think there's a good chance that enomis flips scum and if not possibly dsj.

[clidd]

Clidd you're coming across to me as someone who just wants to get group 3 lynched, rather than simply find scum and attack wherever they are

Although your 188 is an exception to this, where you say that Hoctac's reasoning for TLing ABR may be faulty. what do you think the odds are that Albert is scum?

I think you're getting me wrong. I'm pushing the group that I believe has scum and I explained that. Albert does not make sense as a scum because the fact that he was placed in a small group does not seem strategically correct unless he is being used as a lynch-bait.

[Raya36]

Actually I think that's L-1 on the group so UNVOTE: but consider my vote there.

[Cat Scratch Fever]

The first is less likely, as it proposes a slow game and would involve Scum!Albert involved, something that I find a little inconsistent considering that the appropriate form of distribution would be to place players who are vocally transparent in each of the groups, because at the same time as one scum is eliminated, players of relevance would also be, which also makes it evident that the composition {Clidd, Albert} is strongly antagonistic to this idea, which is why I imagine it to be unlikely.

Can you rephrase this? I don't understand why there wouldn't be 1 scum in {you, Albert}

[Morning Tweet]

If i were setting up these groups, it would seem really obvious to me as scum that Group #3 is going to receive the most lynch pressure.

It's got an extra player over group #2, so in theory, town would think they get higher chances of hitting scum in there. This is subjective, but they didn't put any of the players that i know are good at seeming towny in there (like Cat, Ame, clidd, Kanna). Someone in group 3 admitted they usually get scumread.

And now, indeed, the majority of the game seems to be having suspicions towards group #3. Even all three group #3 members seem to suspect group #3, lmao

i do lean town on Mohab and Enomis as well. Dsjr i dont have an explicit read on yet but i havent found him scummy per se

At this point, im feeling there's 2-3 scum in group one and 0-1 scum outside

I feel like group #2 has a better chance of hitting scum, and if there is no scum outside group #1, it limits our losses a bit as well

[Raya36]

Morning, can you explain your town lean on Enomis? I'm just not seeing it. Also Enomis is actively avoiding lynching his own group so only 2 of the 3 members suspect group 3 unless I missed something.

[Cat Scratch Fever]

Fair point, but see 81, Doro.

You find anyone scummy so far? I'm pretty sure clidd and Ame are conspiring in the other corner.

Think I saw someone slip but I'll have to get back to you on that one.

What were you referring to here?

[Cat Scratch Fever]

Lets say worst case scenario there were 0 mafia in group 3. Then the setup would be limited to either 3-0-0, 2-1-0, or 1-2-0. I don't think that is the case and originally I was leaning towards group three because it would be the safest option now I think

there is mafia in the group.
VOTE: Group 3

Why do you think it isn't 2-1-0? actually fypov, 2-1-0 should be equally likely to 2-0-1 if you're town, right....

Who is mafia in your group?

[clidd]

The first is less likely, as it proposes a slow game and would involve Scum!Albert involved, something that I find a little inconsistent considering that the appropriate form of distribution would be to place players who are vocally transparent in each of the groups, because at the same time as one scum is eliminated, players of relevance would also be, which also makes it evident that the composition {Clidd, Albert} is strongly antagonistic to this idea, which is why I imagine it to be unlikely.

Can you rephrase this? I don't understand why there wouldn't be 1 scum in {you, Albert}

In the scenario (1) (1) (1), there would be a concern on the part of the mafia to distribute the "transparent" players (who are more easily townreads) among the three groups, so that regardless of the group that was lynched, the mafia would benefit, as these players would be lynched as well. Now, considering Scum!Albert in this situation, he would be acting in a scummy way to attract the lynch of his group, but that would only be beneficial if there were other relevant players in the same group, and the fact that only having both of us does not justify this risk. Especially since there are 4 players on the playerlist who have a slight paranoia about me. It seems to me much more a composition to attract a lynch in our group than a planning involving Scum!Albert.

[Cat Scratch Fever]

D&D is town for this. As I said earlier speculation of how scum are split can only get you so far. Scumhunting instead is town-oriented and I also like what they said as well.

Which lines in 135 did you like?

[Morning Tweet]

Morning, can you explain your town lean on Enomis? I'm just not seeing it. Also Enomis is actively avoiding lynching his own group so only 2 of the 3 members suspect group 3 unless I missed something.

Oh yeah i forgot enomis was like "I want to be here on day 2." in response to Mohab voting group three.

Spoiler: Enomis

39/40 - Enomis seems to prefer lynching group one. He would like for us to play the game normally

47 - Enomis realizes that we go to MYLO even if we get 2 scum in group one
Going back on his own play, he realizes why we shouldnt target group one

63 - Enomis theory crafts that mafia wouldnt go 1/1/1.
We later tell him a mistake he made and he reevaluates this to be false. However i do think this was a genuine theory

71 - Enomis is demoralized realizing its between #2 and #3

83 - Enomis wants to be here on day 2

90 - Enomis says that he is forced to vote group 2 because he wants to stay alive and we can't lynch group 1. He is disappointed because this isn't what he was expecting from this game
So here he's either acting well or this is genuine. Again im inclined to believe this is his real feelings, because as scum this is a really weak play to try and get pressure on group #2.

93 - Enomis reiterates that he feels he absolutely cannot lynch group #1 based on what people have posted about it

Enomis is either a demoralized player who feels like he has no options today but wants to keep playing so he's blindly voting group #2, or he's acting out that character. I feel like this is a bad course of action for scum to take. I'd expect scum to find ways to scumread clidd and ABR, not claim "I don't want to die" and more or less give up

I also feel like if Enomis was on a scumteam, he wouldn't volunteer to be put in the outlier group. he'd go for the big group and let someone else do the outlier. Yes, he could be lying about this self-preservation mindset, but im more inclined to think its real

[Cat Scratch Fever]

In the scenario (1) (1) (1), there would be a concern on the part of the mafia to distribute the "transparent" players (who are more easily townreads) among the three groups, so that regardless of the group that was lynched, the mafia would benefit, as these players would be lynched as well. Now, considering Scum!Albert in this situation, he would be acting in a scummy way to attract the lynch of his group, but that would only be beneficial if there were other relevant players in the same group, and the fact that only having both of us does not justify this risk. Especially since there are 4 players on the playerlist who have a slight paranoia about me. It seems to me much more a composition to attract a lynch in our group than a planning involving Scum!Albert.

This kind of assumes that scum!Albert in group 2 would deliberately want to be lynched, no? Which is not how scum would be playing in his position imo. Scum in 1-1-1 would specifically want groups 1 > 3 > 2 to be lynched in that order.

Forget the specific partition for a second, I've noticed that you've basically explained away scum!Albert in every configuration and it doesn't make sense to me. For instance, in the case where the groups are 2-1-0, you say this configuration is too risky for scum in group 2 because group 3 players don't seem "weak verbally." The players in group 3 aren't any stronger/townier than the players in group 2. In fact, I would say the players in group 3 are probably the least known players in the list and have already been attracting a lot of scrutiny.

[clidd]

If i were setting up these groups, it would seem really obvious to me as scum that Group #3 is going to receive the most lynch pressure.

It's got an extra player over group #2, so in theory, town would think they get higher chances of hitting scum in there. This is subjective, but they didn't put any of the players that i know are good at seeming towny in there (like Cat, Ame, clidd, Kanna). Someone in group 3 admitted they usually get scumread.

And now, indeed, the majority of the game seems to be having suspicions towards group #3. Even all three group #3 members seem to suspect group #3, lmao

i do lean town on Mohab and Enomis as well. Dsjr i dont have an explicit read on yet but i havent found him scummy per se

At this point, im feeling there's 2-3 scum in group one and 0-1 scum outside

I feel like group #2 has a better chance of hitting scum, and if there is no scum outside group #1, it limits our losses a bit as well

I can understand your reasoning, but I believe that you are underestimating group 3. The pressure, in my opinion, would be in the lynch of group 2, considering the attempts to push during the day, and they only eased when I was able to participate more actively in the game, this clearly does not seem normal to me.

[Hoctac]

Enomis is either a demoralized player who feels like he has no options today but wants to keep playing so he's blindly voting group #2, or he's acting out that character. I feel like this is a bad course of action for scum to take. I'd expect scum to find ways to scumread clidd and ABR, not claim "I don't want to die" and more or less give up

What if Enomis is scum pretending to act demoralised? His emotion doesn't have to be real.

[Hoctac]

Oh, you said "acting out that character". Did you just edit that post to make me feel stupid?

Noting this down for later.

[Ame]

Hoc + Clidd?

[clidd]

Spoiler:

In the scenario (1) (1) (1), there would be a concern on the part of the mafia to distribute the "transparent" players (who are more easily townreads) among the three groups, so that regardless of the group that was lynched, the mafia would benefit, as these players would be lynched as well. Now, considering Scum!Albert in this situation, he would be acting in a scummy way to attract the lynch of his group, but that would only be beneficial if there were other relevant players in the same group, and the fact that only having both of us does not justify this risk. Especially since there are 4 players on the playerlist who have a slight paranoia about me. It seems to me much more a composition to attract a lynch in our group than a planning involving Scum!Albert.

This kind of assumes that scum!Albert in group 2 would deliberately want to be lynched, no? Which is not how scum would be playing in his position imo. Scum in 1-1-1 would specifically want groups 1 > 3 > 2 to be lynched in that order.

Forget the specific partition for a second, I've noticed that you've basically explained away scum!Albert in every configuration and it doesn't make sense to me. For instance, in the case where the groups are 2-1-0, you say this configuration is too risky for scum in group 2 because group 3 players don't seem "weak verbally." The players in group 3 aren't any stronger/townier than the players in group 2. In fact, I would say the players in group 3 are probably the least known players in the list and have already been attracting a lot of scrutiny.

"

Scum in 1-1-1 would specifically want groups 1 > 3 > 2 to be lynched in that order.

"

Why ?

"

Forget the specific partition for a second, I've noticed that you've basically explained away scum!Albert in every configuration and it doesn't make sense to me. For instance, in the case where the groups are 2-1-0, you say this configuration is too risky for scum in group 2 because group 3 players don't seem "weak verbally." The players in group 3 aren't any stronger/townier than the players in group 2. In fact, I would say the players in group 3 are probably the least known players in the list and have already been attracting a lot of scrutiny

."

Do you consider Albert to be a verbally strong player ?

[Hoctac]

Hoc + Clidd?

Maybe. I haven't ruled it out

[clidd]

Hoc + Clidd?

It depends on whether he is a secret alt from Hectic or not.

[Ame]

Why would he be? Hoctac is clearly not the same thing as Hectic. Are you dyslexic?

[clidd]

Spoiler:

VOTE: group 1

I think this is the shortcut to victory.

I don't like Albert's insistence on group 1. I don't see any consideration of the risk of lynching that group and just running on the assumption that scum put 2 or 3 of themselves in there.

Safety in numbers.

This argument doesn't even make sense? I don't see how scum putting all three in one group being safe just because they have the numbers in that group.

I don't think Albert is scum but I don't like his push for group 1 and I don't think he's really considering the risk of it or the possibility that 2 or 3 scum aren't in the group. If he was scum trying to push a lynch on group 1 I don't think he would be this obvious about it.

I see. I liked how he was thinking about how to play the setup, which seemed natural. and he did end up saying to not lynch group 1 today

He ended up saying to not lynch group 1 unless we found 1 scum in there. Finding a town or two who look like scum in 8 players is very easy. Mafia wouldn't work if that wasn't the case every game. So, my fear is that he knows this and is eventually setting himself up to vote group 1 in the future.
Secondly, it doesn't consider the possibility of there being 1 scum in group 1 who acts like a "jester" of sorts.

This is an interesting thought. Townlean on Hoctac

Daenerys and I both agree the setup talk is getting overdone and is annoying.

I like Ame's 34 for trying to make progression.
In contrast enomis' 40 is bad. And I dislike their later posts too. The demoralization in 90 seems fake.
I also don't like Raya's 74. Lots of "uh huh"ing and easy agreements.
"I definitely agree we should scumhunt and choose the group we lynch based on who we think is scum."
like really?
Hoctac's 81 is a good explanation of why the mechanical discussion is pointless.
Morning Tweet needs to start scumhunting.

VOTE: enomis

-dragons

D&D is town for this. As I said earlier speculation of how scum are split can only get you so far. Scumhunting instead is town-oriented and I also like what they said as well.

I checked the other partition game from 2011 to see how it played out. Scum were spread out one was in group 1, one was in group 2, and another was in group 3. On the vote count there was a message on day 1 saying groups have changed and vote count got reset. A scum player got switched to another group and the group that got lynched on day 1 were all town. I wonder if the same thing is going to happen here. Lynching in group 1 does look risky if they are all town plus add the group change on day 1 if that happens. My guess is one scum will be in group 1, one in group 2, and another in group 3.

1 in group 2 is crazy, there would be confscum from PoV

Can you explain this?

Clidd and Albert for scum

What are your thoughts on Clidd's entrance?


Looking into group 2 and 3:

Group 2:
I don't think Albert is scum based on what I said at the start of this post.

Clidd's entrance seemed ok to me and his group analysis seemed town oriented. It was very straightforward and organized and summarized the options well. His posts after seemed good too.


Group 3:
dsj has only really done setup spec and nothing made me feel strongly either way so I only have a null read on him.

I don't like enomis insistence on not voting yourself. I also find it sus that the person he questions for that is also in his group. He is acting survivalist rather than being concerned about lynching scum. Enomis, if you scumread the other two players in your group would you vote for yourself then?

I still like Mohab's 58 and I think that's a town take on the situation. I like in their entrance post they try to steer the game away from diving too deep into the partitions. I do think it's a bit odd that she said this then dived straight into partition discussion. I think the vote on her own group is good as well assuming she thinks there's scum in her group. I'd like to hear about her reads in her group and reasoning for that vote.

VOTE: Group 3. This seems like the best chance we have at getting scum without risking losing the whole game. I also think there's a good chance that enomis flips scum and if not possibly dsj.

I'll take a better look at this tomorrow.

[Morning Tweet]

Oh, you said "acting out that character". Did you just edit that post to make me feel stupid?

Noting this down for later.

yup! i got u good on that one (・ω<)

[clidd]

Why would he be? Hoctac is clearly not the same thing as Hectic. Are you dyslexic?

[clidd]

I'll be back tomorrow, good night.

[Daenerys and Dragons]

catchup post
- I like that Ame offered a really out of the box strategy that wasn't setup spec related - prob a townlean
- immediately shot down by enomis, who seems overly concerned with group 1 not being lynched
- on pg 3 enomis says "he feels demoralized if either group 2 or 3 have to get kicked." not really sure what this means, suddenly the scenario that he was advocating for of not lynching group 1 makes him feel demoralized, why? one group is going to have to get lynched eventually...
- raya in 74 - why is setup spec towny? also seems to be overly concerned with group 1 not being lynched. "only lynch group 1 if we really strong townread those outside of it."
- then enomis says he wouldn't vote for his own group.. and he feels demoralized because he can only scumhunt within group 2. wtf does this mean? you can still scumhunt in the whole game. I think this is all an act.
- hoctac and cat scratch seem to have similar lines of thought as me on enomis, townleans there
- dsjstr talking about 1/1/1 partition comes across as a little too informed
- ooh made it to dragons posting. he saw all the same things I did! I'm happy with vote/FoS on enomis.
- mohab keeps saying "I don't like setup talk but there's nothing else to do so I'll contribute to the setup talk" instead of..... not doing that. sounds like an excuse not to start scumhunting.
- actually liked raya's 200 more than any prior posts made by them. back to null

not sure how I feel about clidd/ABR. I agree with cat scratch's 211 that clidd has basically waved away the possibility of scum!ABR and I think maybe scum!clidd would have put himself in a group with town!ABR because town leader ABR would not be lynched so clidd thought that would guarantee safety.

I liked what someone did with the color coding in the groups so I'm gonna do that too.

- Daenerys

Spoiler: here's where I'm at

GROUP 1:
Adorable

Ame

Cat Scratch Fever

Daenerys and Dragons

Hoctac

Kanna
Morning Tweet
Raya36

GROUP 2:
Albert B. Rampage

clidd

GROUP 3:

dsjstr

enomis

Mohab500