Newbie 2016: Snapdragons (Game Over)

[JamSV]

As a matter of courtesy, it would be nice if somebody replaces in to give them the benefit of the doubt,

Replacing into a slot doesn't make it town.

we have more than a week to make a safe kill.

Why is a longer day phase inherently better than a short one?

Whether its scummy or a bad play is a different kettle of fish.

This is a false dichotomy.

1. I never said it made them town
2. Helps prevention of a town elimination
3. No it isn't but I like your attempt at discrediting. There isn't town incentive to end a day early. The longer the day the less chance of killing of a town, similarly, if a Cop, you want time to work out who to investigate, Doctor's want time to learn who to heal, Trackers to track, Jailkeepers to Jail, Friendly Neighbour to Neighbour, Masons to get extra stuff worked out amongst the two of them. Ending the day early allows the following:

• Town elimination
• Shorter discussion and the prevention of discussion
• Free time for Scum under suspicion to work out excuses
• Less time for Scum to be found

The list can go on but they're the most important to take into account.

To disallow a day phase to be brought out sufficiently, it is inherently anti-town. If somebody purposely does something anti-town there are two options:
They are scum
OR
They are town and it's a bad play.

We have arrived at the simple conclusion I got to with more detailed explanation than you simply dismissing it as a false dichotomy. A dichotomy would be correct, but not a false dichotomy.

PS I also find it bad practice to quote an answer to the question you're going to ask...

we have more than a week

to make a safe kill.

Why is a longer day phase inherently better than a short one?

Leaning on Lucky, mostly for his post, and partly because he's an English lit student who doesn't quote context to make a quote more accurate.

NAI post. I don;t really see the !scumAgenda here. Its not like he is pushing for a quickhammer.
LL always states he prefers shorter day ones.
I've come round to his line of thinking too.

He's more than welcome to state he prefers a shorter day, as are you, doesn't change the fact its in town's benefit to spend time prevent an accidental town kill. If you can explain how a shorter day with a higher chance of an accidental town kill is better. Inform me. If its simply personal preference and how he supposedly plays. You won't convince me otherwise, but I won't take it further, nor will I be impressed / relieved.

[Homura]

I guess Homura is too cool to answer my questions or respond to my vote.

87

[Homura]

That's exactly why I tone read you as town. The flow of ideas sounds natural

See this as well.

[Homura]

It is all well and good to try to be the cool 500IQ anime protagonist, Detective Conan level scumhunter. However, what is much cooler, much more respectable, would be to actually help town. A mysterious, secretive, low impact town member might aswell not be town but have an entirely neutral role.

I know this is referring to Raya, but I feel called out myself.

This is more of an unrelated note, but I think my recent play has been a lot more reticent partly due to the image I wanted to project on this account and partly because of the stifling impact the pandemic had on me mentally. Like to start being more proactive like my earlier games.

[JamSV]

It is all well and good to try to be the cool 500IQ anime protagonist, Detective Conan level scumhunter. However, what is much cooler, much more respectable, would be to actually help town. A mysterious, secretive, low impact town member might aswell not be town but have an entirely neutral role.

I know this is referring to Raya, but I feel called out myself.

This is more of an unrelated note, but I think my recent play has been a lot more reticent partly due to the image I wanted to project on this account and partly because of the stifling impact the pandemic had on me mentally. Like to start being more proactive like my earlier games.

Not to ruin the surprise but it was aimed at 72

[Homura]

Might be applicable to half the playerlist at this rate.

[Homura]

72, what's your reasoning behind your vote on Blopp?

[JamSV]

72, what's your reasoning behind your vote on Blopp?

[post=]23[/post]
Wild conspiracy theory because I want to put it out there. My first prediction: Lucky / 72 Scum pair. Dun dun dun.

[72offsuit]

@Nahdia:

Ecovision has 0 posts but hasn;t been prodded?

[72offsuit]

@Nahdia:

Ecovision has 0 posts but hasn;t been prodded?

[JamSV]

@Nahdia:

Ecovision has 0 posts but hasn;t been prodded?

Currently after a replacement for Echovision not a prod. Was already said. There's a filter by author option at the bottom of the page.

[72offsuit]

Hmm. Well this is only my second game, and my first one was out of RVS and humming along pretty quickly. So... not sure if there are any other good strategies to break the ice a little.

I'm so glad you asked!
There is a fantastic scumhunting tool called RQS (that's Random Question Stage to the uninitiated).
I do not proclaim to have devised this foolproof tool.

1. What is your experience in mafia outside of mafiascum?
2. Do you prefer playing as town or scum?
3. What do you think of lynching lurkers?
4. What do you think of lynching liars?

1. This is my first forum game but I have played mafia (or werewolf) a few times at parties live (or IRL as the cool kids say it).
2. I haven't played enough to say if I have a preference yet but town was fun when I played with my friends. One of my friends has a really bad poker face so it was fairly easy to see that she was lying to us. I had an "Aha!" moment.
3. I would say not good. Sometimes someone is shy but innocent. I think I'd rather try to hear their thought process first.
4. I'd say good?

What about you @72offsuit?

1. Played about 6-8 games on here. Have played fast-paced browser mafia on epicmafia prior to that.
2. Town. I enjoy the deduction aspect of town. Mafia is stressful and requires effort.
3. Depends. Lurking alone is usually NAI. Active lurking, lurking at critical times is scummy or flat out useless.
4. Yes.

[72offsuit]

UNVOTE: 72
VOTE: Blopp

Why the change of vote?
Same question for 72

23 - dat smiley face --- bad overly friendly/buddy-buddy vibe.
LAMIST - "Lets move out of RVS" with 0 game-related content

[72offsuit]

Hmm. Well this is only my second game, and my first one was out of RVS and humming along pretty quickly. So... not sure if there are any other good strategies to break the ice a little.

I'm so glad you asked!
There is a fantastic scumhunting tool called RQS (that's Random Question Stage to the uninitiated).
I do not proclaim to have devised this foolproof tool.

1. What is your experience in mafia outside of mafiascum?
2. Do you prefer playing as town or scum?
3. What do you think of lynching lurkers?
4. What do you think of lynching liars?

1. Extensive play close to 10 yrs ago. Third game here.
2. Mafia.
3. You know my answer here. Not really but might be changing my opinion on this. Depends on circumstances.
4. A bit of weird question. Context is important.


Now let me add two more.

1. Are you a straightforward player or like to do a lot of private analysis?
2. How upset would you be if you are lynched Day 1 from a scale of 1-10? 10 being highly upset.

1. Most of the time pretty straight-forward. Sometimes I can be a bit manipulative as town or scum to suit an agenda.
2. 15/10

[72offsuit]

UNVOTE:
I don't want a quick hammer. L-2 is plenty for pressure. Scumlean on Lucky for not removing his vote. Could be hoping for that quickhammer

LAMIST. Scumlean on Lucky for not removing his vote... lol. Feels like a forced post.

-0.5 Gangrenous Limb

[72offsuit]

UNVOTE:
I don't want a quick hammer. L-2 is plenty for pressure. Scumlean on Lucky for not removing his vote. Could be hoping for that quickhammer

Is he your only scumlean or do you have more?

It's page 3. What are you expecting?

[72offsuit]

Lucky and blopp. Maybe Clark but I'm unsure

Where's your vote then?

My vote is "on" Blopp I just don't want him at L-1

Perhaps it is a coincidence, but since being wagoned, Blopp has removed their profile pic. That means they have been onsite and decided not to post. So now we have her ignoring the initial wagon that I started with 72o, despite posting after it began and ignoring my case. In addition, we have her logging on to remove her profile pic and still not posting. Feels a lot like giving up to me.

This is a bad case and very reachy.

Also can you all look back at my two questions (rqs) I asked. I really want to know the answer for the first one.

I'll do this in my next post.

UNVOTE:
I don't want a quick hammer. L-2 is plenty for pressure. Scumlean on Lucky for not removing his vote. Could be hoping for that quickhammer

Is he your only scumlean or do you have more?

Lucky and blopp. Maybe Clark but I'm unsure

"I scumlean Lucky for possibly wanting a quick hammer on my other scumlean."

For the record, I'm expecting Blopp not to post again until the slot is replaced, and if the slot claims VT I will be pushing for the slot to be eliminated.

Just because I scumlean him doesnt mean I'm right (I never take associations into account D1. I often have multiple scumread that don't work together). And its perfectly viable to be concerned about someone not removing their vote at L-1 when Blopp hasn't even talked yet.

Actually since I can't vote Blopp right now VOTE: Lucky. I think this is more likely anyway. Your stats case also was reachy and the whole basis of your scumread isn't concrete. I would accept your case if and only if it was supporting evidence of a much stronger and more viable case.

It's page 4. What sort of case are you expecting?

[72offsuit]

Hmm. Well this is only my second game, and my first one was out of RVS and humming along pretty quickly. So... not sure if there are any other good strategies to break the ice a little.

I'm so glad you asked!
There is a fantastic scumhunting tool called RQS (that's Random Question Stage to the uninitiated).
I do not proclaim to have devised this foolproof tool.

1. What is your experience in mafia outside of mafiascum?
2. Do you prefer playing as town or scum?
3. What do you think of lynching lurkers?
4. What do you think of lynching liars?

1. This is my first forum game but I have played mafia (or werewolf) a few times at parties live (or IRL as the cool kids say it).
2. I haven't played enough to say if I have a preference yet but town was fun when I played with my friends. One of my friends has a really bad poker face so it was fairly easy to see that she was lying to us. I had an "Aha!" moment.
3. I would say not good. Sometimes someone is shy but innocent. I think I'd rather try to hear their thought process first.
4. I'd say good?

What about you @72offsuit?

Nah, ill abstain from answering . The RQS tool is incompatible with myself. My alignment cannot be verified via RQS.

So then. Let us do some nitpicking, it's all issues with the process. Experience is NAI. Preferance of play is NAI. Lurker interpretations are NAI. Lying is hard to identify as lying rather than a mistake, similarly, also NAI. However, refusing to answer a question, while NAI, it certainly doesn't look great for town. Address this please, or respond to Blopp. Its difficult to identify a lier so the closest thing one can do is to vote for a hypocrite.

I deliberately didn;t answer to bait someone into asking this. I was always going to answer them.

[JamSV]

I deliberately didn;t answer to bait someone into asking this. I was always going to answer them.

Well then, Mr Sherlock, you've successfully "baited" me into asking it. So do explain what it would not mean, now that I have been "baited". Does it make me a scum lean? A scum read? A town lean? A town read? Do be creative with your explanation. I'm not as smart as Watson unfortunately. It seems (is) as if, you don't have an explanation or a strand of logic to deal with my queries, and have gone into 5D chess level tactics claiming I was "baited", when in fact you were just being hypocritical.

[72offsuit]

I deliberately didn;t answer to bait someone into asking this. I was always going to answer them.

Well then, Mr Sherlock, you've successfully "baited" me into asking it. So do explain what it would not mean, now that I have been "baited". Does it make me a scum lean? A scum read? A town lean? A town read? Do be creative with your explanation. I'm not as smart as Watson unfortunately. It seems (is) as if, you don't have an explanation or a strand of logic to deal with my queries, and have gone into 5D chess level tactics claiming I was "baited", when in fact you were just being hypocritical.

Slightly +town for asking.
I'm not always going to get a perfectly alignment-indicative answer, but its always worth a try.

What does !scumMe gain from not answering?

[LuckyLuciano]

JamSV, I'm not going to derail the game with stats. I'll give you some info and if you want to put in the legwork of verifying it, you can.

There has been 62 completed newbie games on this site with this current setup matrix. Within those games, there is not a statistical difference in town eliminations and mafia eliminations

day 1

based on post count. In other words, deviations in post count cannot reliably predict which faction will be lynched day 1. Posting more or posting less has no statistically significant effect. In games where mafia is eliminated day 1, town has won 17/18 times. In the single game representing a mafia win after a D1 mafia elimination, a town player was on V/LA during ELo and did not place a vote before EoD, resulting in a no elimination. If you eliminate mafia day 1 as town, you win. It's a flaw with the setup that has been known practically since its inception. Mafia mechanically loses if one of them is eliminated D1.

Now let's look at games where town is eliminated day 1. Note, there was one game with a no elimination day 1, which is not accounted for in these numbers. In the games where town is eliminated D1, the average D1 post count in mafia wins is 19.7% higher than the average post count in town wins. That is to say, posting more or posting less does not increase or decrease your chances of eliminating mafia on D1, so while you win the game if you eliminate mafia D1, posting more doesn't yield any different results than posting less in this case. However, in the instances which you eliminate town D1, town wins more often when they have less posts D1. Now you can go ahead and graph everything out to determine if this is actually predictive or if its coincidental, but I'm not going to waste thread space going over it. If you want to save yourself time and actually trust other people for once (Hint: This is how you win mafia games), you can take my word that you can determine the winning faction in games where town is eliminated D1 in this setup accurately enough using D1 post count alone to make a money gambling on game outcomes.

My personal theory as to why this correlation exists has been given before:

My theory as to why this is true is two-fold, (1) Players are reluctant to change their reads because they don't want to be wrong. However, given that DP1 is the point in the game with simultaneously the least amount of information and the statistical highest chance of a mis[elimination], reads are most likely to be wrong DP1. Extending the DP artificially prompts players to make more and more reads in a dayphase where they shouldn't have that many. (2) Players look back on earlier DPs at [E]LO to solve the game. The more valuable and genuine information available, the more likely town solves the game at [E]LO. Cross-applying the latter analysis of (1), we see that artificially extended DP1s prompt town players to give less valuable and less genuine reads because they are trying hard to make something out of the nothingness that is DP1.

You can choose to reject this information if you want, but I insist you focus on behavior that is actually alignment indicative. Somebody telling you that you are wrong is not alignment indicative. You need to look more into

why

players take the stances that they do.

[JamSV]

I deliberately didn;t answer to bait someone into asking this. I was always going to answer them.

Well then, Mr Sherlock, you've successfully "baited" me into asking it. So do explain what it would not mean, now that I have been "baited". Does it make me a scum lean? A scum read? A town lean? A town read? Do be creative with your explanation. I'm not as smart as Watson unfortunately. It seems (is) as if, you don't have an explanation or a strand of logic to deal with my queries, and have gone into 5D chess level tactics claiming I was "baited", when in fact you were just being hypocritical.

Slightly +town for asking.
I'm not always going to get a perfectly alignment-indicative answer, but its always worth a try.

What does !scumMe gain from not answering?

As more and more time passes, and the more a person doesn't answer questions, the more scum indicative it becomes. You gain nothing from not answering however you'll eventually lose town credibility if you keep refusing to answer questions.

[Raya36]

It is all well and good to try to be the cool 500IQ anime protagonist, Detective Conan level scumhunter. However, what is much cooler, much more respectable, would be to actually help town. A mysterious, secretive, low impact town member might aswell not be town but have an entirely neutral role.

I know this is referring to Raya, but I feel called out myself.

Truth is told. Now I really know what Homura thinks of me

[Raya36]

UNVOTE: 72
VOTE: Blopp

Why the change of vote?
Same question for 72

23 - dat smiley face --- bad overly friendly/buddy-buddy vibe.
LAMIST - "Lets move out of RVS" with 0 game-related content

Have your thoughts on Blopp changed at all?

[LuckyLuciano]

Spoiler:

Lucky and blopp. Maybe Clark but I'm unsure

Where's your vote then?

My vote is "on" Blopp I just don't want him at L-1

Perhaps it is a coincidence, but since being wagoned, Blopp has removed their profile pic. That means they have been onsite and decided not to post. So now we have her ignoring the initial wagon that I started with 72o, despite posting after it began and ignoring my case. In addition, we have her logging on to remove her profile pic and still not posting. Feels a lot like giving up to me.

This is a bad case and very reachy.

Also can you all look back at my two questions (rqs) I asked. I really want to know the answer for the first one.

I'll do this in my next post.

UNVOTE:
I don't want a quick hammer. L-2 is plenty for pressure. Scumlean on Lucky for not removing his vote. Could be hoping for that quickhammer

Is he your only scumlean or do you have more?

Lucky and blopp. Maybe Clark but I'm unsure

"I scumlean Lucky for possibly wanting a quick hammer on my other scumlean."

For the record, I'm expecting Blopp not to post again until the slot is replaced, and if the slot claims VT I will be pushing for the slot to be eliminated.

Just because I scumlean him doesnt mean I'm right (I never take associations into account D1. I often have multiple scumread that don't work together). And its perfectly viable to be concerned about someone not removing their vote at L-1 when Blopp hasn't even talked yet.

Actually since I can't vote Blopp right now VOTE: Lucky. I think this is more likely anyway. Your stats case also was reachy and the whole basis of your scumread isn't concrete. I would accept your case if and only if it was supporting evidence of a much stronger and more viable case.

If one of Blopp or I is eliminated, and flips town, do you intend to eliminate the other player tomorrow?