In post 869, Doctor Drew wrote:I have been celebrating the day that Jesus invented 'Murica by kayaking, fishing, getting a sunburn, shooting cans with a pellet gun, throwing axes at shit, and getting drunk.
So basically I am prepared to drop the hammer if need be.......ready to spread some freedom around.
Celebrating 'murika by hammering the Canadian. I see how it is...
In post 869, Doctor Drew wrote:I have been celebrating the day that Jesus invented 'Murica by kayaking, fishing, getting a sunburn, shooting cans with a pellet gun, throwing axes at shit, and getting drunk.
So basically I am prepared to drop the hammer if need be.......ready to spread some freedom around.
In post 807, Tuxedo Mask wrote:My only hesitation on Marashu is that the same group of players got a lot of traction on wagons for Marashu and Pi. So something pings me about that and kind of makes me feel it is scum Midari/PP indictive, but I've never done VCA before so I don't feel too strong in that gut feeling.
I think word also highlighted this, but scum is not the only option! Maybe we are just a strong townblock trying to steer town in the right direction, or maybe we are scum - you have to decide this, but don't treat scum manipulation as the only motive here
What about what I said implied it was the only thing I considered? What's the worry of me looking at those that moved from Pi to Marashu?
I can't look into your mind and see what you're considering, word has also said this gives him scumpings so I am pointing out a very reasonable alternative theory to anyone who may see these arguments - are you saying these types of arguments shouldn't be pointed out lol?
In post 869, Doctor Drew wrote:I have been celebrating the day that Jesus invented 'Murica by kayaking, fishing, getting a sunburn, shooting cans with a pellet gun, throwing axes at shit, and getting drunk.
So basically I am prepared to drop the hammer if need be.......ready to spread some freedom around.
Celebrating 'murika by hammering the Canadian. I see how it is...
In post 869, Doctor Drew wrote:I have been celebrating the day that Jesus invented 'Murica by kayaking, fishing, getting a sunburn, shooting cans with a pellet gun, throwing axes at shit, and getting drunk.
So basically I am prepared to drop the hammer if need be.......ready to spread some freedom around.
Also this no elim thing and Mara's claim being towny are absolutely ridiculous.
No elim has been talked about but the VT claim here is 0% town indicative. BM's view on a claim doesn't mean that other members of town (especially those who are not on the wagon already and are less likely to agree with him) will follow his thoughts. If you claim PR, you're trading PR for scum at some point in the game, which is obviously a numbers disadvantage. This whole thing is WIFOM anyways, there's no reason to respect a VT claim as townie, as doing so makes scum more likely to claim VT and get off scot free for absolutely no risk
In post 798, Battle Mage wrote:i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.
Well, I am claiming VT, so what happens happens. My elimination might not be a bad thing in that regard (except for the fact that it's a miselimination), because it should at least give context to my wagon and some of the reads on me. I'd rather be an early miseliminationthan than a late miselimination, and more than either I want to win, so if my elimination helps town get the info we need to win, then so be it.
I feel like Nash is coasting, which is why I want more pressure there. I'm actually kinda feeling Worcestershire as scum - I thought that Nash's point on cognitive load was pretty on point, and resonates with past games I've played as scum. I just didn't think that will gain traction with so many people seemingly TRing Worce.
In post 879, superbowl9 wrote:Also this no elim thing and Mara's claim being towny are absolutely ridiculous.
No elim has been talked about but the VT claim here is 0% town indicative. BM's view on a claim doesn't mean that other members of town (especially those who are not on the wagon already and are less likely to agree with him) will follow his thoughts. If you claim PR, you're trading PR for scum at some point in the game, which is obviously a numbers disadvantage. This whole thing is WIFOM anyways, there's no reason to respect a VT claim as townie, as doing so makes scum more likely to claim VT and get off scot free for absolutely no risk
But the number disadvantage looked inevitable, it comes down to possibly outing a PR or not for scum!Mara.
In post 879, superbowl9 wrote:Also this no elim thing and Mara's claim being towny are absolutely ridiculous.
No elim has been talked about but the VT claim here is 0% town indicative. BM's view on a claim doesn't mean that other members of town (especially those who are not on the wagon already and are less likely to agree with him) will follow his thoughts. If you claim PR, you're trading PR for scum at some point in the game, which is obviously a numbers disadvantage. This whole thing is WIFOM anyways, there's no reason to respect a VT claim as townie, as doing so makes scum more likely to claim VT and get off scot free for absolutely no risk
But the number disadvantage looked inevitable, it comes down to possibly outing a PR or not for scum!Mara.
Welcome to WIFOM land
It's not inevitable if a handy-dandy Nash comes along, sees that it *looks* inevitable, and uses that as justification to unvote!
No action is inevitable in this game until it happens.
This is not to mention that on a macroscopic scale, your strategy is not a good one. If many people across the site began using your same argument in similar sitautions, we have a meta change and now scum can claim VT with the same weight as a PR claim! Awesome! Apparently we should also conftown them for a while too - we've now created scum paradise.
Note - it can be useful to break paradigms
from time to time
, especially in case of a situation with extenuating circumstances. This is not one of those times though
I'm also willing to hammer Marashu. The only thing that gives me pause is that despite our stalling, I haven't seen a counterwagon emerge. Presumably this means that if Marashu is scum he is either being bussed or his teammates are relatively uncharismatic.
Aristophanes, I asked for who you'd prefer to lynch because I'd rather not let scum get away with the whole "oh I didn't like this wagon but I'll compromise at deadline if I have to". I want your reads so I can hold you accountable to them, even if it's basically set in stone that Marashu will be the lynch at this point.
In post 861, Nash wrote:If Mara is a VT, then I would have claimed VT. If Mara is scum, given that BM made a point about eliminating a VT claim, I would have tried to out a PR by fakeclaiming instead of dying without a purpose.
What I'm asking is, in this specific scenario, which PR would you have claimed? Because I don't think Marashu had a choice, and the only advantage I see is given to scum because they're the only ones who know definitively whether Marashu is town or not.
In post 861, Nash wrote:By conftown, I meant most likely to flip town.
I'm used to conftown meaning confirmed town. But my point still stands - he's not. I'm not seeing where your confidence is coming from.
In post 861, Nash wrote:I was being dumb. I did not realize that No Eliminating on D1 was equivalent to a nightstart and didn't take into account we would be one step behind in terms of a maf win at parity. The idea was independant of my TR on Mara.
I don't believe you. I don't know whether to consider that daytalk between you and Deimos or you grasping for straws in an attempt to spare Marashu, but I don't believe you.
I'm assuming we're going to drag this all the way down to deadline. Oh well.
While i'm catching up, and cuz it will take some time, has marashu made any sort of scumslip to end up in such a wagon distribution or is it something else?
(Don't like how most of the peoples i'm susp as of page 12 are off mara's wagon also)
Aristophanes wrote:
Mara, can you provide a Nash case?
So I guess first I'd like to point out that initial reads post. The defense on Midari is essentially WIFOM. Regarding 139 he also says "but this behaviour pings me as town for a strange reason I don't want to discuss" - now that Midari is not in the game, I don't see any reason why this should be withheld. The read on votato feels forced to me - I could see suspicion on the votato slot, but I don't see how that would be stronger than, say, his Worce read, which he downplays. On the subject of Worce, I think this read betrays his later posts. He displays here that he is familiar with pressure on the mind of scum mentality well enough to be able to vocalize it.
I'm actually kinda surprised why they ended up in a lot of your townpools. No RVS vote was placed (scummy), and I don't find anything in their ISO which gives me town pings either - 70% of it is just fluff. I'm gonna need someone to explain their TR here. The only vote ever placed was on superbowl, and I don't like that at all.
Spoiler: Midari
The self vote (44) is suboptimal scum play since it's anti-town and will be scrutinized at some point. I think scum!Midari would have pondered upon this, so the defensiveness in (76) gives me weak town pings (since it was only RVS). I'm not sure why she had a TR on votato at that point, and I'm not satisfied whatsoever with the justification in (139), but this behaviour pings me as town for a strange reason I don't want to discuss. I think the vote progression from this slot is pretty natural and I disagree with the implications of (392) and (411).
Spoiler: Deimos
Strikes me as the towniest so far, although some of his reads don't really resonate with mine.
In response to (62) and (145), I'm curious to hear his thoughts on vota.
What causes the townlean on superbowl and Worcestershire (237)?
Why is word suspicious?
Spoiler: Worcestershire
Placing naked votes and failing to pick up on BM's humour in (169) are probably results of a greater cognitive load, which is likelier to come from newbie scum under pressure. But I have no idea of his meta so the read is weak. Why is the slot being townread?
I'll post my reads on the rest of the playerlist later. VOTE: votato for now.
This is where he starts shading brass. No real reason for it that I can see - those two mentioned were not the only ones on the Midari wagon. Maybe if he had provided the promised read list this would make more sense? But from what I can see, it looks like he's dug in that Midari is town, and is looking for people who are pushing a Midari agenda.
In post 589, Nash wrote:Yeah, I think the Midari wagon is lame. And I don't like votato and brass in it.
I would actually like to know what changed here - he doesn't want to pursue an Ari case because a wagon won't form. But then he tries starting a wagon on Looker. I don't see the logical progression.
This bothers me. First of all, No Hammer is pretty much the opposite of what BM is saying. VT is a safer mishammer than having lots of cases. Second, it's creating a false dilemma where lynching town or no hammer are the only choices. Third (and partly because of 2), it's distancing himself from the wagon that at this point I think he still has reason to think it will go forward, with the number of people saying they were willing to hammer.
In post 798, Battle Mage wrote:i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.
You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there. VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.
I think this is where the point I made earlier about his displayed experience (or at least displayed knowledge about the game) betraying him starts to become relevant. "What's the benefit of eliminating town?" feels LAMIST. Also, considering how much he was considering mechanics of setup early in the day, him suddenly not seeing why the No Hammer is a bad idea does not line up.
In post 798, Battle Mage wrote:i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.
You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there. VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.
What's the benefit of not voting someone out today?
I think Mara is town with that claim. Scum claiming VT instead of a PR when 798 was made is very anti scum. What's the benefit of eliminating town?
Finally, look at the tone between Nash and Looker. To me this sounds like scum who was caught rather than town who is trying to confront scum (because remember, town!Nash thinks Looker is scum at this point). Some other points: he says wanting to go No Hammer was independent of his read on me - what does that even mean? How do scum know where to shoot for PRs, regardless of my flip? And why did Nash need to vote for someone on my wagon, if Ari is his top scumpick and has declared intent to hammer?
In post 798, Battle Mage wrote:i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.
You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there. VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.
I feel like you're trying to attribute a shitty idea to Battle Mage when he proposed the exact opposite. I want to flip Marashu more than ever now.
I was convinced by Mara's claim and I thought it would be best to not go for another elimination and risk losing a PR without any mechanical advantage (50%). That way we don't run up a bunch of people like BM said.
In post 798, Battle Mage wrote:i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.
You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there. VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.
What's the benefit of not voting someone out today?
I think Mara is town with that claim. Scum claiming VT instead of a PR when 798 was made is very anti scum. What's the benefit of eliminating town?
If you had claimed in Marashu's position, what would you have claimed?
If Mara is a VT, then I would have claimed VT. If Mara is scum, given that BM made a point about eliminating a VT claim, I would have tried to out a PR by fakeclaiming instead of dying without a purpose.
In post 828, Tuxedo Mask wrote:I guess what's the benefit of not voting someone out over not killing Marashu anyways? I get the hesitation to not out PRs but like if you look at it logically if that's your hang up then no elimination should just be your stance day 1 or Marashu sort of must to die, right?
P:edit I think Marashu has a good chance to be town too, but with the logic that it's antiscum to not faow claim that means there is a very slim chance that trying to vote someone out day 1 doesn't result in the death of a pr, right?
Either you hit scum and they fake claim, likely outing the real pr.
You hit pr outing them.
Or you hit VT narrowing the the POE for scum. That's also assuming scum don't have some reason that they'd want to do a VT claim here.
I just mean if that's why you want to no elimination, I feel you should have always wanted it over any votes as there is no path that doesn't lead us here or to a dead pr. Scum aren't going to claim scum after all.
Makes sense, but having a VT claim at the end of the day is beneficial and most probable
Beneficial to whom? Other than scum who now know where to shoot for PRs?
To town, because I don't know why scum would claim VT in that situation. Scum would know where to shoot for PRs even if we eliminated the VT.
In post 798, Battle Mage wrote:i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.
You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there. VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.
No. This gets us no info and no info gets us beaten.
We flip Mara. The vt claim is fine.
If there is no good alternative wagon we stick it out at this point, even if they are town.
Knowing Mara is most likely town is good info by itself, I think? Treating Mara as conftown will force scum to kill him at some point, which is good for us.
You skipped a step - how do you know Marashu is anything? I don't get this gimmick of treating Marashu like conftown just because you don't want to flip him.
In post 842, Deimos27 wrote:
No eliminating is almost always -EV in mafia, at least D1. This is the only time town controls who dies, and the only time there's a chance of killing scum. No eliminating denies so much info on the flip and surrounding wagon analysis. This is especially unacceptable to me since my playstyle relies on VC/wagon analysis.
This is actually very true. There's a 10% drop in our chances if we no eliminate today assuming mountainous even with a conftown.
I was wrong UNVOTE: NO ELIMINATE
You're backtracking because people aren't as dumb as you thought they'd be.
I was being dumb. I did not realize that No Eliminating on D1 was equivalent to a nightstart and didn't take into account we would be one step behind in terms of a maf win at parity. The idea was independant of my TR on Mara.
