Newbie 2016: Snapdragons (Game Over)


Forum rules
User avatar
ClarkBar
ClarkBar
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
ClarkBar
Goon
Goon
Posts: 879
Joined: June 16, 2020
Location: PDX

Post Post #575 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2020 8:35 am

Post by ClarkBar »

In post 572, Porkens wrote:I’m not going to spend any time or energy trying to defend LL’s play, evaluate his ISO, or trying to make a towncase of it. Like I said
i thought he was scum
. His decisions were his, and they were bad.
I don't expect you to answer for him really. Awkward slot to replace into.
In post 572, Porkens wrote:My job here is not to avoid getting hanged. It’s to help the town get information.
And how would you say you've accomplished this since you've replaced in?
In post 572, Porkens wrote:Re: your answer. I’m going to be pedantic here and ask you in a different way: in a vacuum, do you think claiming a PR shakes attention away from the claimant?
There's no vacuum for this. Completely situational. Who is claiming, when does the claim happen, is it a soft claim or a specific one, is there a counter-claim, what was the state of the wagon, was there even a wagon, etc. etc.
User avatar
ClarkBar
ClarkBar
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
ClarkBar
Goon
Goon
Posts: 879
Joined: June 16, 2020
Location: PDX

Post Post #576 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2020 8:52 am

Post by ClarkBar »

In post 573, Porkens wrote:Let’s go at this in another way. What are your current thoughts on the counterwagons?
How your slot flips will inform a lot of my thinking. I suspect 72 due to his position on LL's dick, where his votes have gone and why, and how he reacted to the claim by LL. Plus his lack of scum hunting. So why am I not voting for 72? Because I'm much less sure about him than you, and if you flip town then I would be forced to really re-evaluate my read on him.

I have a null read on Raya. I iso'd her and stuff, so you can go check that out at your leisure. In short I didn't like her push on LL at first, but she explained her reasoning well enough. LL said my change of heart with Raya occurred "magically" but I gave post links. If you flip scum then she would essentially be a town lock for me. If you flip town than I would look at that early push I didn't like again and follow up more with her.
User avatar
Battle Mage
Battle Mage
Jester
User avatar
User avatar
Battle Mage
Jester
Jester
Posts: 22231
Joined: January 10, 2007

Post Post #577 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2020 8:57 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 132, JamSV wrote:
In post 131, Homura wrote:
In post 97, Homura wrote:72, what's your reasoning behind your vote on Blopp?

Wild conspiracy theory because I want to put it out there. My first prediction: Lucky / 72 Scum pair. Dun dun dun.
Never like to see this, after what happened with TTJT and me, being outted as masons on Day 1 by over-zealous town. :facepalm:
In post 136, 72offsuit wrote:
In post 29, Blopp wrote:
In post 22, 72offsuit wrote:
In post 21, ClarkBar wrote:Hmm. Well this is only my second game, and my first one was out of RVS and humming along pretty quickly. So... not sure if there are any other good strategies to break the ice a little.
I'm so glad you asked!
There is a fantastic scumhunting tool called RQS (that's Random Question Stage to the uninitiated).
I do not proclaim to have devised this foolproof tool.

1. What is your experience in mafia outside of mafiascum?
2. Do you prefer playing as town or scum?
3. What do you think of lynching lurkers?
4. What do you think of lynching liars?
1. This is my first forum game but I have played mafia (or werewolf) a few times at parties live (or IRL as the cool kids say it).
2. I haven't played enough to say if I have a preference yet but town was fun when I played with my friends. One of my friends has a really bad poker face so it was fairly easy to see that she was lying to us. I had an "Aha!" moment.
3. I would say not good. Sometimes someone is shy but innocent. I think I'd rather try to hear their thought process first.
4. I'd say good?

What about you @72offsuit?

1. Played about 6-8 games on here. Have played fast-paced browser mafia on epicmafia prior to that.
2. Town. I enjoy the deduction aspect of town. Mafia is stressful and requires effort.
3. Depends. Lurking alone is usually NAI. Active lurking, lurking at critical times is scummy or flat out useless.
4. Yes.
A bit surprised 72offsuit bowed to the pressure and answered these. "Mafia is stressful and requires effort" - not much effort shown so far, although that's about to change...
In post 137, 72offsuit wrote:
In post 34, Raya36 wrote:
In post 24, LuckyLuciano wrote:UNVOTE: 72
VOTE: Blopp
Why the change of vote?
Same question for 72
23 - dat smiley face --- bad overly friendly/buddy-buddy vibe.
LAMIST - "Lets move out of RVS" with 0 game-related content
Misuse of LAMIST. I can buy from 72-town.
In post 139, 72offsuit wrote:
In post 67, Raya36 wrote:UNVOTE:
I don't want a quick hammer. L-2 is plenty for pressure. Scumlean on Lucky for not removing his vote. Could be hoping for that quickhammer
LAMIST. Scumlean on Lucky for not removing his vote... lol. Feels like a forced post.
-0.5 Gangrenous Limb
Eh, maybe.
In post 142, 72offsuit wrote:
In post 115, JamSV wrote: So then. Let us do some nitpicking, it's all issues with the process. Experience is NAI. Preferance of play is NAI. Lurker interpretations are NAI. Lying is hard to identify as lying rather than a mistake, similarly, also NAI. However, refusing to answer a question, while NAI, it certainly doesn't look great for town. Address this please, or respond to Blopp. Its difficult to identify a lier so the closest thing one can do is to vote for a hypocrite.
I deliberately didn;t answer to bait someone into asking this. I was always going to answer them.
What's the
purpose
of the bait?
In post 144, 72offsuit wrote:
In post 143, JamSV wrote:
In post 142, 72offsuit wrote:I deliberately didn;t answer to bait someone into asking this. I was always going to answer them.
Well then, Mr Sherlock, you've successfully "baited" me into asking it. So do explain what it would not mean, now that I have been "baited". Does it make me a scum lean? A scum read? A town lean? A town read? Do be creative with your explanation. I'm not as smart as Watson unfortunately. It seems (is) as if, you don't have an explanation or a strand of logic to deal with my queries, and have gone into 5D chess level tactics claiming I was "baited", when in fact you were just being hypocritical.
Slightly +town for asking.
I'm not always going to get a perfectly alignment-indicative answer, but its always worth a try.

What does !scumMe gain from not answering?
That's true though. Gut townlean on 72 at this stage, I think. Although the above was essentially nothing more than low effort bolstering of the post count.
In post 145, LuckyLuciano wrote:[...]
I insist you focus on behavior that is actually alignment indicative. Somebody telling you that you are wrong is not alignment indicative. You need to look more into
why
players take the stances that they do.
again, Lucky returns with sole focus of trying to persuade Jam he's town. Change in tone continues - have now transitioned from abrasive buddying, to more of a pleading/protesting style.
Show
2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
User avatar
Battle Mage
Battle Mage
Jester
User avatar
User avatar
Battle Mage
Jester
Jester
Posts: 22231
Joined: January 10, 2007

Post Post #578 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:00 am

Post by Battle Mage »

start of page 7, Lucky gives up on stagnant Blopp wagon, and searches for other targets. In particular, bold pings me. Appeals to the wider group like "you guys", "everyone" are a scumtell in my experience. The tone has completely changed by this point.
In post 150, LuckyLuciano wrote:@JamSV, why did you put Blopp at L-1 and proceed to tell players to feel free to hammer and state that you see quickhammers as NAI?
In post 151, LuckyLuciano wrote:
In post 139, 72offsuit wrote:
In post 67, Raya36 wrote:UNVOTE:
I don't want a quick hammer. L-2 is plenty for pressure. Scumlean on Lucky for not removing his vote. Could be hoping for that quickhammer
LAMIST. Scumlean on Lucky for not removing his vote... lol. Feels like a forced post.
-0.5 Gangrenous Limb
Have I told you that I still hate when you assign scumpoints like this?
In post 153, LuckyLuciano wrote:
What's everyone's thoughts
on how Homura positioned herself while JamSV and I were arguing last night?
Show
2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
User avatar
Battle Mage
Battle Mage
Jester
User avatar
User avatar
Battle Mage
Jester
Jester
Posts: 22231
Joined: January 10, 2007

Post Post #579 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:04 am

Post by Battle Mage »

Independent Reads (not based on possible pairings)

Town

TheThirteenthJT
JamSV
ClarkBar
Looker

To be determined

Lickety Quickety
72offsuit

Scum

Raya36
LuckyLuciano

My townbloc is strong, so should be able to move faster now! :D
Show
2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
User avatar
ClarkBar
ClarkBar
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
ClarkBar
Goon
Goon
Posts: 879
Joined: June 16, 2020
Location: PDX

Post Post #580 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:11 am

Post by ClarkBar »

BM, you're confident that Raya and LL would go through such lengths in order to distance?
User avatar
Battle Mage
Battle Mage
Jester
User avatar
User avatar
Battle Mage
Jester
Jester
Posts: 22231
Joined: January 10, 2007

Post Post #581 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:19 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 154, Raya36 wrote:Not necessarily. I'll take a look at all the associations with that player and decide from there. I don't think one of you and Blopp HAVE to be scum. I just scumread both of you, associations aside.
In post 155, Raya36 wrote:
In post 149, LuckyLuciano wrote:
In post 106, Raya36 wrote:
Spoiler:
In post 70, TheThirteenthJT wrote:
In post 69, Raya36 wrote:Lucky and blopp. Maybe Clark but I'm unsure
Where's your vote then?
My vote is "on" Blopp I just don't want him at L-1

In post 63, LuckyLuciano wrote:Perhaps it is a coincidence, but since being wagoned, Blopp has removed their profile pic. That means they have been onsite and decided not to post. So now we have her ignoring the initial wagon that I started with 72o, despite posting after it began and ignoring my case. In addition, we have her logging on to remove her profile pic and still not posting. Feels a lot like giving up to me.
This is a bad case and very reachy.

In post 71, TheThirteenthJT wrote:Also can you all look back at my two questions (rqs) I asked. I really want to know the answer for the first one.
I'll do this in my next post.

In post 72, LuckyLuciano wrote:
In post 68, TheThirteenthJT wrote:
In post 67, Raya36 wrote:UNVOTE:
I don't want a quick hammer. L-2 is plenty for pressure. Scumlean on Lucky for not removing his vote. Could be hoping for that quickhammer
Is he your only scumlean or do you have more?
In post 69, Raya36 wrote:Lucky and blopp. Maybe Clark but I'm unsure
"I scumlean Lucky for possibly wanting a quick hammer on my other scumlean."

For the record, I'm expecting Blopp not to post again until the slot is replaced, and if the slot claims VT I will be pushing for the slot to be eliminated.
Just because I scumlean him doesnt mean I'm right (I never take associations into account D1. I often have multiple scumread that don't work together). And its perfectly viable to be concerned about someone not removing their vote at L-1 when Blopp hasn't even talked yet.

Actually since I can't vote Blopp right now VOTE: Lucky. I think this is more likely anyway. Your stats case also was reachy and the whole basis of your scumread isn't concrete. I would accept your case if and only if it was supporting evidence of a much stronger and more viable case.
If one of Blopp or I is eliminated, and flips town, do you intend to eliminate the other player tomorrow?
That's in response to this
This gives me bad vibes.

And Wtmoo was that open from LQ? :eek:

Onto Page 8!
Show
2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
User avatar
Battle Mage
Battle Mage
Jester
User avatar
User avatar
Battle Mage
Jester
Jester
Posts: 22231
Joined: January 10, 2007

Post Post #582 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:21 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 580, ClarkBar wrote:BM, you're confident that Raya and LL would go through such lengths in order to distance?
I haven't fully thought through the relationships yet, and I'm not even halfway through the game! But I haven't seen great distancing between the two yet - have I missed something?
Show
2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
User avatar
Porkens
Porkens
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Porkens
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 9700
Joined: June 20, 2008

Post Post #583 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:28 am

Post by Porkens »

In post 576, ClarkBar wrote:
In post 573, Porkens wrote:Let’s go at this in another way. What are your current thoughts on the counterwagons?
How your slot flips will inform a lot of my thinking. I suspect 72 due to his position on LL's dick, where his votes have gone and why, and how he reacted to the claim by LL. Plus his lack of scum hunting. So why am I not voting for 72? Because I'm much less sure about him than you, and if you flip town then I would be forced to really re-evaluate my read on him.

I have a null read on Raya. I iso'd her and stuff, so you can go check that out at your leisure. In short I didn't like her push on LL at first, but she explained her reasoning well enough. LL said my change of heart with Raya occurred "magically" but I gave post links. If you flip scum then she would essentially be a town lock for me. If you flip town than I would look at that early push I didn't like again and follow up more with her.
In post 575, ClarkBar wrote:In post 572, Porkens wrote:
My job here is not to avoid getting hanged. It’s to help the town get information.


And how would you say you've accomplished this since you've replaced in?
I guess I give myself a B-.

In post 576, ClarkBar wrote:
In post 573, Porkens wrote:Let’s go at this in another way. What are your current thoughts on the counterwagons?
How your slot flips will inform a lot of my thinking. I suspect 72 due to his position on LL's dick, where his votes have gone and why, and how he reacted to the claim by LL. Plus his lack of scum hunting. So why am I not voting for 72? Because I'm much less sure about him than you, and if you flip town then I would be forced to really re-evaluate my read on him.

I have a null read on Raya. I iso'd her and stuff, so you can go check that out at your leisure. In short I didn't like her push on LL at first, but she explained her reasoning well enough. LL said my change of heart with Raya occurred "magically" but I gave post links. If you flip scum then she would essentially be a town lock for me. If you flip town than I would look at that early push I didn't like again and follow up more with her.
I was actually asking about the voters on those wagons rather than the targets of the wagons. Do you have any thoughts on 13/72 wagon on Raya or LQ/P wagon on 72?
worse than random
User avatar
JamSV
JamSV
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
JamSV
Goon
Goon
Posts: 621
Joined: June 17, 2020
Location: England

Post Post #584 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:03 am

Post by JamSV »

In post 576, ClarkBar wrote:
In post 573, Porkens wrote:Let’s go at this in another way. What are your current thoughts on the counterwagons?
How your slot flips will inform a lot of my thinking. I suspect 72 due to his position on LL's dick,
Okay, right, so, I suspect there is a typo in that last sentence, but, no idea.
User avatar
Porkens
Porkens
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Porkens
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 9700
Joined: June 20, 2008

Post Post #585 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:06 am

Post by Porkens »

How do you feel about the composition of the counterwagon jam?
worse than random
User avatar
ClarkBar
ClarkBar
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
ClarkBar
Goon
Goon
Posts: 879
Joined: June 16, 2020
Location: PDX

Post Post #586 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:17 am

Post by ClarkBar »

In post 583, Porkens wrote:I was actually asking about the voters on those wagons rather than the targets of the wagons. Do you have any thoughts on 13/72 wagon on Raya or LQ/P wagon on 72?
Not really. My reads are available. Can't blame anybody for voting 72 at all, you're just the better candidate. People who are scum-reading Raya are making me nervous that I'm being naive about her, but that's something I'll focus more on once (God willing) you're executed.

Nothing personal btw. Jam must be crazy, you seem like a delight!
In post 584, JamSV wrote:Okay, right, so, I suspect there is a typo in that last sentence, but, no idea.
No typo, just a little nod to which made me chuckle.
User avatar
TheThirteenthJT
TheThirteenthJT
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
TheThirteenthJT
Goon
Goon
Posts: 366
Joined: May 25, 2020

Post Post #587 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:18 am

Post by TheThirteenthJT »

So I'm caught up reading. Clark case coming up. At this point it's a toss up for me between clark, Raya and Porkens.

Raya I've stated my early reasons and recent game hasn't been helping for me. Ill go in more detail soon

Clarkbarr has really flagged me recently. Full case coming soon as well so don't end the day.

And Porkens unfortunately for them, would tells us so much about the game.

I want quicks stance asap on Porkens. No hammer without a final claim Or I policy tomorrow.
User avatar
Battle Mage
Battle Mage
Jester
User avatar
User avatar
Battle Mage
Jester
Jester
Posts: 22231
Joined: January 10, 2007

Post Post #588 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:18 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 178, TheThirteenthJT wrote:
In post 106, Raya36 wrote:
In post 70, TheThirteenthJT wrote:
In post 69, Raya36 wrote:Lucky and blopp. Maybe Clark but I'm unsure
Where's your vote then?
My vote is "on" Blopp I just don't want him at L-1

In post 63, LuckyLuciano wrote:Perhaps it is a coincidence, but since being wagoned, Blopp has removed their profile pic. That means they have been onsite and decided not to post. So now we have her ignoring the initial wagon that I started with 72o, despite posting after it began and ignoring my case. In addition, we have her logging on to remove her profile pic and still not posting. Feels a lot like giving up to me.
This is a bad case and very reachy.

In post 71, TheThirteenthJT wrote:Also can you all look back at my two questions (rqs) I asked. I really want to know the answer for the first one.
I'll do this in my next post.

In post 72, LuckyLuciano wrote:
In post 68, TheThirteenthJT wrote:
In post 67, Raya36 wrote:UNVOTE:
I don't want a quick hammer. L-2 is plenty for pressure. Scumlean on Lucky for not removing his vote. Could be hoping for that quickhammer
Is he your only scumlean or do you have more?
In post 69, Raya36 wrote:Lucky and blopp. Maybe Clark but I'm unsure
"I scumlean Lucky for possibly wanting a quick hammer on my other scumlean."

For the record, I'm expecting Blopp not to post again until the slot is replaced, and if the slot claims VT I will be pushing for the slot to be eliminated.
Just because I scumlean him doesnt mean I'm right (I never take associations into account D1. I often have multiple scumread that don't work together). And its perfectly viable to be concerned about someone not removing their vote at L-1 when Blopp hasn't even talked yet.

Actually since I can't vote Blopp right now VOTE: Lucky. I think this is more likely anyway. Your stats case also was reachy and the whole basis of your scumread isn't concrete. I would accept your case if and only if it was supporting evidence of a much stronger and more viable case.
Isn't most Day 1 early cases reachy? I really hate this argument
Also I see you join The Luciano wagon after I printed you to vote and someone else joined before you. I don't like this. I could argue myself that your case on him is reachy but again my case is reachy here no? Finally your case is more repreat what was already aid to give you a reason to join the wagon. While not Al we always scum indicative it's a good start.

Once I catch up my read here I will chiose where my vote goes but you are definitely setting off alarms.
I broadly agree with this take.
In post 181, Raya36 wrote:So I'm not super into this game yet so I'm gonna make a readslist to orient myself.

Town:

JamSV - Town, tonal/reasoning, was bad town play imo. Scum wouldn't be so obvious if this was an attempt at a quick hammer though I think.

ClarkBar - I think Clark is overeager town on a reread. This is consistent with their RVS play. I no longer find defending Blopp to be scummy since the eagerness is consistent. His responses to my questioning about this sounds genuine too.

Homura - Townlean, I like the stance taken on Lucky and it's very similar thoughts to my own.

TheThirteenthJT - Slight townlean. are you suggesting Jam and Clark are partners? What is your read on Clark? I believe your vote is still there.


Null:

LicketyQuickety - Null, need to hear more.

72offsuit - Null. I actually scumread RQS a bit (but very weakly), I don't find it works or does any good and responses tend to lead only to unrelated debate. It muddies the thread. Also why start RQS then refuse to answer and say it won't help find alignment? What is your read on Lucky?

Blopp - Scumlean/null for lack of content. I want to hear from her or a replacement.


Scum:

LuckyLuciano - Scum, didn't remove vote at L-1, reachy case on Blopp (had a greeting in their first post, LAMIST post (23) but I heavily disagree. How is 23 any different than the RQS questions and how could she be using it to try to look town or helpful?, saying that they came online to remove their profile pic but didn't post so must be given up scum). It seems like he's trying to make a case out of nothing. It also seems like he's trying to set up a lynch to for sure be Blopp (stating that if he gets replaced and they claim VT he'll push for their lynch, not seeming particularly interested in hearing from the replacement). It's always best to hear from the replacement of a sus player. I don't like the statistics analysis too. Usually when I see stuff like this I take it as busy work. It's not a strong case, there's lots of variables, it muddied up the thread and made the game less readable for me at least. A question for you Lucky, why can't newbtown get frustrated and quit when a wagon is formed on them? Why must Blopp be scum for this?
A good readslist. Smart town or informed scum? Only 1 scumread though, and largest wagon at this point, so not going out on much of a limb. Although she hasn't given herself much room for manoerve either. Gut feeling still Raya-scum, has felt awkwardly out of step with rest of the play to this point.
In post 186, TheThirteenthJT wrote:
In post 158, JamSV wrote:
In post 150, LuckyLuciano wrote:@JamSV, why did you put Blopp at L-1 and proceed to tell players to feel free to hammer and state that you see quickhammers as NAI?
A quickhammer can be seen as NAI as it could just be a really bad misunderstanding leading to a bad play. Which is why I believe a quickhammer without an explanation is scum indicative, but one with (on its own) is NAI.

I put him on L-1 to see how he would react. Nobody would express intent to hammer so my proceeding post was to in force that a extra bit of pressure. I have faith nobody would come in and swoop to quick hammer, considering we had all already posted (excluding Echovision), and we could all easily see how close he is to getting hammered. I will admit, I really didn't expect him to "leave" if we can class that as what he is doing. Plus that type of play is good for moving more out of the RVS, and it can apply simple pressure to see just how easily somebody would actually fold.

- If you were wondering if I have a bit too much faith in people, I probably do.
Quick hammers are a difficult subject to assess. In my first game I delivered a naked quickhammer as town. I was a town mason and we had our reasons for it. In the end all quickhammers have reasons even if not explained and do follow an agenda so they are touchy subjects for me. No we maybe a quickhammers earlier in the day umpromted may be a case for scum but have not encountered that situation yet. Most come towards the end of the day phase.

Now I do find it interesting you placed Blopp at e-1 and didn't really get called out much for it. Instead Raya unvoted and Luciano got scumleaned for not doing do as well. I don't believe you had I'll intentions and neither did Luciano. Raya comes away again as most suspicious and a bit LAMIST for his unvote.
That's a very good point about Raya not calling out Jam - I missed that one! Would Raya have been tunnelling her partner this early? Although a scumlean is only a warning shot I guess...

And you're preaching to the converted on quickhammers! :lol:
In post 193, Raya36 wrote:You can take a look at my meta if you want 72. 4 townleans/reads early game is not unusual for me. multiple scumleans isn't either. And I'm sure you can find reads similar to my read on Homura too.

You're not scumread because my RQS statement is very weak and can only be used as a statement to back up a stronger case.
Don't like this in isolation, and had a similar comment towards Lucky earlier. Comes across as if the cases would be artificial rather than legitimate (i'll only commit to a scumread once I think my case will stand up to scrutiny). Unlikely Raya-72 scumpair?
In post 215, Raya36 wrote:
In post 209, TheThirteenthJT wrote:TheThirteenthJT - Slight townlean. 58 are you suggesting Jam and Clark are partners? What is your read on Clark? I believe your vote is still there.

Yes partially. I was also suggesting that scum are the only ones that truly know everyone's alignment. So Clark is an interesting read for me and would like to expand on this later. He actually failed a test earlier and it looks bad for him but his play has indicated town for me. I will be keeping a good look at him throughout the game but it's currently Not enough for me to keep my vote on him currently.

So after my reread my vote will most comfortably be here

UNVOTE: clark
VOTE: raya36
I'm interested in what this failed test is
me too. Hey TTJT - what was the test?
Show
2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
User avatar
Battle Mage
Battle Mage
Jester
User avatar
User avatar
Battle Mage
Jester
Jester
Posts: 22231
Joined: January 10, 2007

Post Post #589 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:19 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 584, JamSV wrote:
In post 576, ClarkBar wrote:
In post 573, Porkens wrote:Let’s go at this in another way. What are your current thoughts on the counterwagons?
How your slot flips will inform a lot of my thinking. I suspect
72
69 due to his position on LL's dick,
Okay, right, so, I suspect there is a typo in that last sentence, but, no idea.
Solved
Show
2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
User avatar
Battle Mage
Battle Mage
Jester
User avatar
User avatar
Battle Mage
Jester
Jester
Posts: 22231
Joined: January 10, 2007

Post Post #590 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:20 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 587, TheThirteenthJT wrote:So I'm caught up reading. Clark case coming up. At this point it's a toss up for me between clark, Raya and Porkens.

Raya I've stated my early reasons and recent game hasn't been helping for me. Ill go in more detail soon

Clarkbarr has really flagged me recently. Full case coming soon as well so don't end the day.

And Porkens unfortunately for them, would tells us so much about the game.

I want quicks stance asap on Porkens. No hammer without a final claim Or I policy tomorrow.
dude if i dont catch up before the day ends, I'm done. :facepalm:
Show
2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
User avatar
Porkens
Porkens
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Porkens
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 9700
Joined: June 20, 2008

Post Post #591 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:30 am

Post by Porkens »

Thirteenth, what would my hanging tell us about the game?
worse than random
User avatar
Battle Mage
Battle Mage
Jester
User avatar
User avatar
Battle Mage
Jester
Jester
Posts: 22231
Joined: January 10, 2007

Post Post #592 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:33 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 232, LicketyQuickety wrote:
In post 231, Raya36 wrote:
In post 230, LicketyQuickety wrote:
In post 181, Raya36 wrote:LicketyQuickety - Null, need to
hear more
.
Hear away:

Hm not bad. This earns a townlean
Spoiler: I will fail you
Hints at being scum. Scum points. Raya gives this townpoints. Scum points for her too.

LQ's play early in the game - high posting, entertaining but not really saying anything, reads scummy. Not sure what partner would fit though? Raya/Lucky might suggest he's trying to distract from the existing pressure. Anyone else might suggest he's just happily lurking in plain sight.
In post 247, JamSV wrote:
In post 246, 72offsuit wrote:The avatar removal just feels like an account deactivation. Seems like she decided forum mafia wasnt her cup of tea.
Question is, what it due to !scumher having to explain her way out of a hole, or just disliking the game overall.
See this is why I think we should wait for a replacement for her overall, I think we should give the replacement the benefit of doubt for a while after they replace in, give them a few posts to understand their town, and the intonations and such of that new player will help us work out which one it was.
Ah, thanks man. I love you too! <3
In post 246, 72offsuit wrote:The avatar removal just feels like an account deactivation. Seems like she decided forum mafia wasnt her cup of tea.
Question is, what it due to !scumher having to explain her way out of a hole, or just disliking the game overall.
Spoiler: She disliked you overall :giggle:
In post 248, TheThirteenthJT wrote:
In post 247, JamSV wrote:
In post 246, 72offsuit wrote:The avatar removal just feels like an account deactivation. Seems like she decided forum mafia wasnt her cup of tea.
Question is, what it due to !scumher having to explain her way out of a hole, or just disliking the game overall.
See this is why I think we should wait for a replacement for her overall, I think we should give the replacement the benefit of doubt for a while after they replace in, give them a few posts to understand their town, and the intonations and such of that new player will help us work out which one it was.
In the mean time I suggest looking at the interactions around this. Raya and Homura and have struck out the most for me.

Also hypothetical question. If someone comes into the game and says they are scum and leaves. Does it matter what the replacement says? Do we give them the benefit of the doubt. I know you don't think the flake is scum indicative, I am starting to feel it's to closest thing possible a scum tell. At this point when the replacement comes in and catches up, gives us summaries of what they think, I would suggest putting them on L-1 with intent.
...Jesus Christ! :eek: You're planning to put me at L-1 with intent?
Show
2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
User avatar
Battle Mage
Battle Mage
Jester
User avatar
User avatar
Battle Mage
Jester
Jester
Posts: 22231
Joined: January 10, 2007

Post Post #593 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:43 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 260, LicketyQuickety wrote:And why has no one really said a single word about my case on 72/LL?
LL/LQ maybe? based on page 11. LQ comes in and lays a mysterious trail of hints from other games, which he later explains was sowing the seeds of suspicion against Lucky. Lucky was already top wagon when LQ replaced in. They obviously have history. Wouldn't surprise me if LQ came in and bussed remorselessly (albeit he actually gave himself a bit of leeway with the early posting).
In post 259, LicketyQuickety wrote:Keep in mind the reason that LL wants Blopp out of the game is the exact reason I wanted Gorge Bailey out of the the game but in that game LL unvotes GB because they don't want to end the day that early.
interesting meta.
Show
2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
User avatar
Porkens
Porkens
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Porkens
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 9700
Joined: June 20, 2008

Post Post #594 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:44 am

Post by Porkens »

Wrong tree BM, just letting you know work on a backup case
worse than random
User avatar
TheThirteenthJT
TheThirteenthJT
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
TheThirteenthJT
Goon
Goon
Posts: 366
Joined: May 25, 2020

Post Post #595 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:45 am

Post by TheThirteenthJT »

In post 591, Porkens wrote:Thirteenth, what would my hanging tell us about the game?

I've been looking at vote counts throughout the game. Jamsv has been the most firm on the LL wagon. Hasn't waivered from their stance. Raya agrees with LL early game on Blopp and then distanced by voting LL as the wagon started turning. Lickety was also pushing hard on LL and dropped a bit after the pr claim. Even with LL backtracking and dropping they have not returned to that wagon. Waiting on them now to further analyze. Meanwhile counterwagon was 72 who agreed with LL. An LL flip would be the strongest indicator of 72 this game. I am almost certain if LL is town than 72 is scum here. Does not work vice versa. Clark on your wagon just now felt extremely oppurtunistic, again more detail coming.

There's so much to learn from your flip.

And I don't want to give 100% away the tell (you can however meta me to find it.) But it's related to one of my (borrowed) rqs question and Clark gave a result with 100% scum rate. Obviously tools like that are just tools so Ive been trying to watch their game independently from it. If they flip scum that tool will be great for future games and if not Clark becomes the exception.
User avatar
Battle Mage
Battle Mage
Jester
User avatar
User avatar
Battle Mage
Jester
Jester
Posts: 22231
Joined: January 10, 2007

Post Post #596 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:47 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 580, ClarkBar wrote:BM, you're confident that Raya and LL would go through such lengths in order to distance?
I'm on page 12 now. It's a fair question. The distancing was mostly from Raya towards LL, which was consistent with the fact that LL was closest to being executed. So yes, I could see them as the team, although it's not a lock. Probably at this stage I'm still flipping Pork as the most likely, although could probably compromise with Raya, as long as Pork went tomorrow. Although compromising on the Day 1 elim cost me my last newbie game, so maybe I shouldn't. :igmeou:
Show
2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
User avatar
JamSV
JamSV
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
JamSV
Goon
Goon
Posts: 621
Joined: June 17, 2020
Location: England

Post Post #597 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:51 am

Post by JamSV »

In post 594, Porkens wrote:Wrong tree BM, just letting you know work on a backup case
I thought, you didn't want to make us think you were town and that you were just here to scum hunt. This post seems like you've changed your mind.
User avatar
Porkens
Porkens
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
Porkens
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 9700
Joined: June 20, 2008

Post Post #598 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:51 am

Post by Porkens »

In post 595, TheThirteenthJT wrote:
In post 591, Porkens wrote:Thirteenth, what would my hanging tell us about the game?

I've been looking at vote counts throughout the game. Jamsv has been the most firm on the LL wagon. Hasn't waivered from their stance. Raya agrees with LL early game on Blopp and then distanced by voting LL as the wagon started turning. Lickety was also pushing hard on LL and dropped a bit after the pr claim. Even with LL backtracking and dropping they have not returned to that wagon. Waiting on them now to further analyze. Meanwhile counterwagon was 72 who agreed with LL. An LL flip would be the strongest indicator of 72 this game. I am almost certain if LL is town than 72 is scum here. Does not work vice versa. Clark on your wagon just now felt extremely oppurtunistic, again more detail coming.

There's so much to learn from your flip.

And I don't want to give 100% away the tell (you can however meta me to find it.) But it's related to one of my (borrowed) rqs question and Clark gave a result with 100% scum rate. Obviously tools like that are just tools so Ive been trying to watch their game independently from it. If they flip scum that tool will be great for future games and if not Clark becomes the exception.
So which is more likely: LL town or 72 scum?
worse than random
User avatar
TheThirteenthJT
TheThirteenthJT
Goon
User avatar
User avatar
TheThirteenthJT
Goon
Goon
Posts: 366
Joined: May 25, 2020

Post Post #599 (ISO) » Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:52 am

Post by TheThirteenthJT »

In post 592, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 232, LicketyQuickety wrote:
In post 231, Raya36 wrote:
In post 230, LicketyQuickety wrote:
In post 181, Raya36 wrote:LicketyQuickety - Null, need to
hear more
.
Hear away:

Hm not bad. This earns a townlean
Spoiler: I will fail you
Hints at being scum. Scum points. Raya gives this townpoints. Scum points for her too.

LQ's play early in the game - high posting, entertaining but not really saying anything, reads scummy. Not sure what partner would fit though? Raya/Lucky might suggest he's trying to distract from the existing pressure. Anyone else might suggest he's just happily lurking in plain sight.
In post 247, JamSV wrote:
In post 246, 72offsuit wrote:The avatar removal just feels like an account deactivation. Seems like she decided forum mafia wasnt her cup of tea.
Question is, what it due to !scumher having to explain her way out of a hole, or just disliking the game overall.
See this is why I think we should wait for a replacement for her overall, I think we should give the replacement the benefit of doubt for a while after they replace in, give them a few posts to understand their town, and the intonations and such of that new player will help us work out which one it was.
Ah, thanks man. I love you too! <3
In post 246, 72offsuit wrote:The avatar removal just feels like an account deactivation. Seems like she decided forum mafia wasnt her cup of tea.
Question is, what it due to !scumher having to explain her way out of a hole, or just disliking the game overall.
Spoiler: She disliked you overall :giggle:
In post 248, TheThirteenthJT wrote:
In post 247, JamSV wrote:
In post 246, 72offsuit wrote:The avatar removal just feels like an account deactivation. Seems like she decided forum mafia wasnt her cup of tea.
Question is, what it due to !scumher having to explain her way out of a hole, or just disliking the game overall.
See this is why I think we should wait for a replacement for her overall, I think we should give the replacement the benefit of doubt for a while after they replace in, give them a few posts to understand their town, and the intonations and such of that new player will help us work out which one it was.
In the mean time I suggest looking at the interactions around this. Raya and Homura and have struck out the most for me.

Also hypothetical question. If someone comes into the game and says they are scum and leaves. Does it matter what the replacement says? Do we give them the benefit of the doubt. I know you don't think the flake is scum indicative, I am starting to feel it's to closest thing possible a scum tell. At this point when the replacement comes in and catches up, gives us summaries of what they think, I would suggest putting them on L-1 with intent.
...Jesus Christ! :eek: You're planning to put me at L-1 with intent?
With everything that happened I forgot about this lol. Umm I think that ship sailed when LL faltered on his stance on Blopp. He made himself the main target and the Blopp slot exploration almost feels null for now.

Also wasn't expecting you to come into the game. At some point I will push personal feelings aside and if youre mafia Ill get ya. So yes hurry and catch up so we can L-1 you. You know your slot is actually in my top two partner spots if Clark flips scum. The other is Porkens. (Again something is off for me with Clark's vote )
Locked