Open 784 - Hard-Boiled (Town Wins!)

[PenguinPower]

Penguins are not slippery!

[Battle Mage]

I don't want to devolve this into a playstyle discussion, but....you're wrong.

Rant away in MD.

I'm sure you don't want to get into a playstyle discussion given your ethos of not reading the game.

Correct. I play by gut/tone and votes. Reading stuff from when I wasn't here doesn't really help.

If you want to help, you can point out what you're referring to for your argument otherwise I'm just going to ignore it.

I'm not going to do your job for you. You can play how you like, but don't expect me to put any stock in your reads when you haven't availed yourself of the evidence in the thread. It's all irrelevant if we eliminate you today in any case.

[PenguinPower]

I mean - towns work together but you do you boo.

[Battle Mage]

I mean - towns work together but you do you boo.

Boo, you're all take and no give.

[superbowl9]

WIFOM

Spoiler: 0 - An example

If you are unfamiliar with WIFOM or meta levels, which I doubt many here are, this is for you!

To illustrate a WIFOM scenario, here is an example using the common scenario of a scum player providing a read on a fellow scum member - each number represents a meta level a person can operate on.

• lvl 0 - Town read your partner in an attempt to keep them alive
  lvl 1 - Scum read your partner, anticipating that others will think you were operating from level 0. Thus, if you flip scum, your buddy will be cleared, as scum wants to townread their partner on the 0th level meta.
  lvl 2 - Town read your partner, anticipating that people would think you would want to distance from your partner by scum reading them using level 1 logic.
  lvl 3 - Scum read your partner, anticipating people thinking you are operating from level 2

And so on....

You can see that in this example, all even (or odd) meta levels lead to the same outcomes - this happens with binary scenarios (i.e. the wine can be placed in front of either you or me), but gets more complicated with non-binary choices, such as rock-paper-scissors.

Actually Important Stuff

A last area of note is that every action taken by any player is *technically* within the framework of WIFOM. It is, however, quite pedantic and useless to say that level 0 play or argumentation exists within some WIFOM framework, hence why WIFOM only has a place when higher levels of meta are brought into play/discussion. The only useful place lvl 0 has in WIFOM discussions is as an alternative to a proposed higher level argument or strategy.

Spoiler: 1 - What do we mean by "WIFOM"?

We (now) all know the basics of what WIFOM is, but I see many people confusing three distinct categories which are both lumped into "WIFOM" due to generalization.
These are:

1.

Exploiting

WIFOM
2.

Experiencing

WIFOM
3.

Using

WIFOM arguments

When you

exploit

WIFOM, you are exploiting the fact that there is a generally defined meta by moving up meta levels to execute some strategy. For example, if you started a wagon on your scum buddy knowing that this would cause others to view you as town, that would be an exploitation of WIFOM. Note: This type of WIFOM is almost exclusively done by scum players, and is 99% of the time anti-town.

When you are

experiencing

WIFOM, you are, just as Vizzini is in the OG clip, deliberating over which meta level someone is operating upon. Note: This type of WIFOM is almost exclusively experienced by Town players, as scum already knows alignments and can more easily ascribe motive to actions.

When you are

using

WIFOM, you are either making an argument as to which meta level someone is operating from OR pointing out that it is useless to speculate upon which meta level someone is on.

Sadly, these clearly different types of WIFOM never get distinguished, as WIFOM is the term we use to refer to all of these instances.

Spoiler: 2 - When is WIFOM good?

Experiencing WIFOM is almost always a good thing in healthy doses. One always wants to theorize about plays or strategies that break the normal "level 0" meta, or they will be easily duped. If one gets too far into this line of thinking, it can be harmful, but this will be discussed later.

Using WIFOM arguments can be good to help aid players who have overdosed in their experience of WIFOM ("you're in a pointless WIFOM, just stop thinking about it"), or to reasonably accuse someone of exploiting WIFOM ("BM started the wagon because he knew VCA is a common thing, so therefore he did it just for town points!"). It should be noted, though, that this second type of WIFOM argument needs evidence to back it up, just like any other argument. Simply arguing that someone

could

be operating on a non-zero meta level is not sufficient to say that they

are

operating on said level, as Occam's Razor says that unnecessarily complicated solutions should be dismissed.

The opposite of this is also true, however. You can dismiss an argument as unnecessarily complicated WIFOM if it has no evidence, but it would

not

be sound to brush aside all WIFOM arguments simply because they are WIFOM. If someone makes an argument with valid evidence as to why someone is abusing a higher meta level, then that's an effective WIFOM argument.

Just because something is WIFOM does not mean it is good or bad

.

Spoiler: 3 - When is WIFOM bad?

It is generally bad to experience WIFOM if you go too many levels deep or spend too much time focusing on it. In the original PB clip, Vizzini deliberates over a comically large number of WIFOM levels, to the point where that type of metagaming would never be reached by human agents. If you are considering WIFOM exploitation above maybe 2 or 3 levels, you're in too deep.

You can also be too influenced (or not influenced enough) by the possibility of WIFOM exploitation occurring. If you simply take every possibility that someone

could

be abusing the meta and consider it as a valid interpretation, you will be cognitively overloaded trying to balance all of those possibilities in an already complex game. You need to evaluate evidence and filter out which interactions you think are just normal level 0 ones, which should be most of them.

The opposite of this is once again true: you also need to beware of people using WIFOM arguments to try to convince you to ignore the possibility of someone exploiting WIFOM. Someone saying "Yeah, but this is WIFOM" should not be viewed as a refutation of your reasoning, but rather a prompt for evidence as to why your use of WIFOM reasoning is more probable than the simplest base case.

Using WIFOM arguments is bad only when the argument itself is either flawed or nefarious. If you are using a WIFOM argument with no evidence, it is a bad argument, just as with normal arguments. If you are using a WIFOM argument to manipulate someone into being confused or to think a certain way, that's scummy.

Spoiler: 4 - Back to the Penguin

Back to what's prompted all of this. PP has argued that scum almost certainly have bussed Marashu. I point out that this is a use of an unjustified WIFOM argument - PP is assuming that scum here is operating on level 1 of the following WIFOM framework:

lvl 0 - scum don't vote their partner (obvious)
lvl 1 - scum vote their partner in anticipation of people looking back at the wagon assuming scum are operating at lvl 0, thus gaining townpoints.

My point in saying that this is WIFOM is not to dismiss your POV, it is simply to say that your POV is one among multiple, and that you haven't provided evidence for your POV. I can just as easily say "I'm looking off the wagon because scum wouldn't vote for themselves!!!", but I would be making the same mistake that you are: assuming that scum is operating at a specific WIFOM level without evidence.

PP may argue that the meta has shifted so much within mafia that the level 1 strategy above has actually become more of a default "level 0" strategy, meaning it should automatically be assumed that scum are employing level 1 meta since it is so beneficial to them. I see this as a valid interpretation - the only thing I would point out is that to use this logic in *all* cases would be to ignore the possibility of a WIFOM action, which would be naive. To say that scum *always* bus in such a situation would be firstly incorrect and secondly a poor assumption to work off of, even if true.

That is why VCA can be so flawed, because it's so easy to (exploit) WIFOM as scum, yet the playerbase (as PP just did) often assumes that scum *only* operate at a certain WIFOM level when [not] voting on wagons. All this is not to mention the fact that you can never know for certain if someone will ever be lynched, so by always employing a lvl 1 strategy as scum you

will

end up lynching scum which may have otherwise escaped a wagon at some point.

Thus, you have committed 2 WIFOM errors - 1 assuming the WIFOM level upon which scum is operating, and 2 dismissing a valid use of WIFOM argumentation as one which is not useful.

Now back to the game

[Battle Mage]

damnit superbowl, you beat me to it!

[superbowl9]

The student has preempted the master

[superbowl9]

Are you Reck in disguise?

I am half Hectic half Reck

[superbowl9]

If you want to help, you can point out what you're referring to for your argument otherwise I'm just going to ignore it.

I will actually help with this
335
Wagon builds over like 1 to 2 pages after this

[PenguinPower]

tybb

That makes Magie-poo look much better and Nash look worse.

[superbowl9]

anytime my botha

[superbowl9]

*brotha you are not a bother

[Doctor Drew]

{word, Ari, BM}

That's where I think we should look today.

Why word?

[Aristophanes]

Oh, I'm in prod range...

Uh, I'll be back on Saturday. Sorry, I'm busy with a lot of projects right now and won't be able to give this any time until then.

[PenguinPower]

{word, Ari, BM}

That's where I think we should look today.

Why word?

I’ve already said because of wagon positioning. Couple that with the push on Maru’s counterwagon (Hi! Me) until eod, it doesn’t look good. I’m also biased that he voted me shortly after I put him in my pool and his vca explanation on looker/magiepoo doesn’t really grok.

Ari! Give me something before you disappear plskthx. I liked you yesterday...I’m iffy today.

[Tuxedo Mask]

[quote="In

Ari! Give me something before you disappear plskthx. I liked you yesterday...I’m iffy today.

Yes, please. Astro doesn't seem like one to go anywhere. Especially when we're all still waiting on that read list they promised.

[Froppy]

Gimme a break dude. I basically invented the Marashu-wagon. The likelihood of me bussing like that, in that spot, in this format, is pretty slim. Is it possible? Of course. But to have me as one of your top suspects today is ridiculous. Your justification here is superficial and low effort - I know you are better than this.

Sorry you fell in that spot?

I didn't read most of the game

, but where did you invent the wagon?

Read the game then.

I can relate to pengy about not reading the game, while I wouldn't have put BM at the top of my sus list from whats been shown D2. Out of the three names that have been voted for so far I'd have to place mine here VOTE: Doc. Drew.

I checked his ISO and I'm just not a fan of his disappearance when mara had the big wagon, especially if people knew that slot was getting the hammer.

[Aristophanes]

Ari! Give me something before you disappear plskthx. I liked you yesterday...I’m iffy today.

Sure thing my friend!

Mara flipping scum really surprised me, so I need to rethink a few things and read their Iso before I commit to things.

I will say that there being no mention of Nash, like not a single one, in Mara's Iso until more than 700 posts into the game, and then 43 mentions in the following 200 (I mean, half of that is the broken quote but still) with a sudden scumread is a lot more interesting than I initially gave it credit for. I am going to have to do some wagonomics on it and see if the pivot looks like scum trying to save their ass, scum trying a light bus to pivot attention and break up their wagon while getting rid of associatives, or like scum flailing.

I'll have a readslist later, since the scumflip changes an awful lot for me.
Sorry Tux.

(I almost posted this in the wrong thread, as in, in Mish Mash. That would have been bad. Thank god for ninjas!)

[Tuxedo Mask]

I totally missed that Worsh got replaced. Froppy scared the shit out of me. We truly are being overrun by anime.

I forgive you Ari, but only just.

[Doctor Drew]

I totally missed that Worsh got replaced. Froppy scared the shit out of me. We truly are being overrun by anime.

I forgive you Ari, but only just.

Seriously, can I WOTC this and demand no more anime avatars replace in please?

And Froppy, you don't think scum would prefer to hammer or at least be late to a wagon on there buddy who was almost guaranteed to be hammered?

[Aristophanes]

I totally missed that Worsh got replaced. Froppy scared the shit out of me. We truly are being overrun by anime.

I forgive you Ari, but only just.

Seriously, can I WOTC this and demand no more anime avatars replace in please?

And Froppy, you don't think scum would prefer to hammer or at least be late to a wagon on there buddy who was almost guaranteed to be hammered?

Unfortunately you are but one among the crowd, and the crowds seem to say, overwhelmingly, that Aminu avatars are lit!

[Tuxedo Mask]

I totally missed that Worsh got replaced. Froppy scared the shit out of me. We truly are being overrun by anime.

I forgive you Ari, but only just.

Seriously, can I WOTC this and demand no more anime avatars replace in please?

And Froppy, you don't think scum would prefer to hammer or at least be late to a wagon on there buddy who was almost guaranteed to be hammered?

Unfortunately you are but one among the crowd, and the crowds seem to say, overwhelmingly, that Aminu avatars are lit!

Spoiler: Counter point, if you can't beat 'em join 'em

[Doctor Drew]

I don't.....hate it?

Plus, it really isn't anime.

[Tuxedo Mask]

I don't.....hate it?

Plus, it really isn't anime.

I did my best! At least it is Dr. Drew.

[PenguinPower]

Yes