Open 789: Two-Fold 2d3 [Game Over]

[Bell]

I'm humbled.
That was almost a perfect night for us I think.
VOTE: Teacher

[teacher]

Let’s dance Bell

[Bell]

Sure.
You seemed to suspect RCE the most yesterday and I don't see why you wouldn't use the NK to get rid of him.
You were one of three (if you don't include me *cough*) that kept bringing the wagon outside of Jake. Danflorr is gone so.
I think RCE was scum reading you.

[teacher]

Yes, RCE was suspecting me.
Yes, I hard defended Jake.

But I also gave intent on him and quite clearly left my L-1 vote on him up for several hours, with intent expressed, only to try hard defending.

Do you really honestly think that any scum busses like that?

[teacher]

I was wrong, but I thought it would make it pretty obvious I’m not mafia. I could have seen suspecting me as a wolf til RCE’s flip, but I don’t think my awkward positioning and flipping around Jake makes any sense for a partner whose going to have to play survivor.

[Bell]

I thought about that. I think it's within the realm of possibility. Given where the game state was I don't think it was a particularly novel bus.

[teacher]

(And yes, I suspected RCE — which was (a) right, (b) why I wouldn’t use my nk on him, a slot I could easily push, and (c) why you should take his read of me with a giant grain of salt).

[teacher]

For what it’s worth, I’m pretty sure this game is about as near auto as it can get without actually being so. We don’t have any public set up information yet, but at 8:1:1 we have essentially two mis-eliminations, and those miseliminations are considerably less likely because

• theres a 60% chance (49/81) that 4 of those 8 are PRs who won’t be counterclaimed if they are run up.
  
• a 90% (77/81) chance that at least 3 are, and
  
• in all cases, including the remaining 10% of only two PRs, there is a substantial likelihood that the PRs can clear other towns.

I have some additional setup thoughts, but want to sleep on them before trying to write them out.

[dramonic]

I wish yall could feel like I felt when we got the Jake flip.
I've got thoughts, but ill wait for everyone to chime in in case we have guiltoes
Edit: what teach said minus all the math

[Marashu]

I'm Seer. Bell is werewolf.

VOTE: Bell

[Marashu]

Only half way mena. I kind of agree with Dann here.
Initial read has haven as townish again.
You seem like a carbon copy of all the games i’ve played with you.
I think this is a corner scum game. But I don’t think i’ve Seen you take pot shots there yet, why?

I checked him because it looked like he was softing my role here. It's why I said I had gutpings about him, but then I laid off when I realized if I pushed too hard, they might realize why and target me instead.

[Bell]

Aw. I wasn't.

[Marashu]

I really don't think dramonic or teacher or Hiraki are Jake's partner.

[Marashu]

Aw. I wasn't.

Then count it up to caught for the wrong reasons.

[Marashu]

FWIW if you hadn't done that one specific thing, I was going to be checking Dannflor

[Marashu]

I wish yall could feel like I felt when we got the Jake flip.
I've got thoughts, but ill wait for everyone to chime in in case we have guiltoes
Edit: what teach said minus all the math

I honestly was hoping that Jake was werewolf so I'd be looking for his partner, so that the info I got wouldn't end up being us needing to find the other mafia but still getting 2 NK's tonight. I wish you could feel like I felt when D2 started.

[Marashu]

For what it’s worth, I’m pretty sure this game is about as near auto as it can get without actually being so. We don’t have any public set up information yet, but at 8:1:1 we have essentially two mis-eliminations, and those miseliminations are considerably less likely because

• theres a 60% chance (49/81) that 4 of those 8 are PRs who won’t be counterclaimed if they are run up.
  
• a 90% (77/81) chance that at least 3 are, and
  
• in all cases, including the remaining 10% of only two PRs, there is a substantial likelihood that the PRs can clear other towns.

I have some additional setup thoughts, but want to sleep on them before trying to write them out.

I don't think it's auto yet, but we're in a good place. We're getting scum again today. Worst case on D3 will be 7:1.

[chkflip]

I'm not reading 70 pages, to be clear.

Let's get this dub guys.

[Hiraki]

Vote: Bell

[Hiraki]

I wish yall could feel like I felt when we got the Jake flip.
I've got thoughts, but ill wait for everyone to chime in in case we have guiltoes
Edit: what teach said minus all the math

yeah we fucking DABBIN on the HATERS my GUY

[Chemist1422]

VOTE: Bell

carry me

[dramonic]

I really don't think dramonic or teacher or Hiraki are Jake's partner.

I have an ego, but not to the point of aggressively yelling at every counterwagon to me bussing my buddy from page 2.
Like if someone wanted to argue I'm wolf (moot at this point) we could have a talk, but anyone calling me mafia at this juncture needs to retire.

I'll vote Bell, but I still want to wait for everyone to at least chime in.

[chkflip]

What's the Bell wagon about?

[Marashu]

What's the Bell wagon about?

The Bell wagon is about I'm Seer, I investigated Bell, and got guilty.

[chkflip]

Oh sick. Too easy.