I mean, Nikahang just voted for shelly over and over and never did anything else that game. It's possible for scum to do that, but it would be weird. I'd expect scum to do something more like Sirius did—lead with a vote on a scummate if it was a wagon, then hop to the freshest wagon. Sirius likes wagons so far, and in my experience that's a scum trait.
But my voting for you is not OMGUS. I've been sus of you since Day 1 lmao. I'm mostly voting just to see what happens, there are a couple of different reactions I'm interested in seeing.
Also, just gotta say, if I was scum:
1) I walk in and shelly has just made that crazy play. Why would I have pressured a kill on Plus so aggressively? It was probably completely unnecessary to get the kill (considering plus himself was angling for it) and ultimately got a lot more attention put on me. It's also debatable that it's
even better
for scum if I don't pressure you into making the kill and let you go the day without the kill happening. It puts the game into the same game-state (ultimately town still has wasted an elim, so scum still gets another night) except that now scum has more control over the outcome. Scum has more flexible options if there's no kill: they can NK plus to create the same game-state, we're currently in, or gamble on the set of possible night-actions to hope for a scenario where nobody receives Plus' night action to try to get shelly to live for another day
2) Frankly, the fact that the people who were NK'd were all people who FoS'd me at some point is NAI. I've seen scum try to use their NK's to frame people more often than I've seen them try to use them to eliminate critics. Think about it: the way scum wins is by getting them to waste their elims. There is no other victory condition for scum, that's just how the numbers play out. Every time town kills a townie, scum gets one more night. Every time town skips a vote and every other time after that, scum gets another night. Scum need three false elims to win in total.
Defensive NKs point a bunch of arrows towards you. It might reduce some day suspicion, but if someone notices, there's a decent chance the town tries to kill you. It puts you in the spotlight even if you successfully defend yourself in the daythread, and might force you to try to fakeclaim to stay alive, which often leads to a 50/50 which is quite bad for scum. Meanwhile, framing someone else with your NK's puts
them
in the spotlight, taking pressure off of you. It's especially effective if you don't draw attention to it, and see if someone else connects the dots to the person you're framing, although you can pull it out yourself to get the final miselim too. Basically, as scum, you don't want to be feeding townies lines that give them better odds of catching scum than elim'ing purely randomly, and playing often leads to that.
3) Let's say I am scum, and I am using my NK defensively. I'd rather kill 72 than Frogster: 72 also announced suspicion of me, and while Frogster FoS'd me Day 2, I seem to recall that he liked me Day 1. Not sure on that. Either way, 72 seems to have more of a proclivity towards tunneling on scum targets, and I was his sole scumread at that point. His initial suspicion of shelly was long and aggressive, and after the counterclaim nonsense he continued to think that Plus was scum. I think it's pretty clear that 72 and shelly can't have been scummates, so I definitely would have killed him night 2 if I hadn't on night 1.
I actually still think that the Sirius/shelly scumteam is a bit more plausible than the Noraa/shelly scumteam. I'm mostly just trying to get discussion rolling, and people tend to start replying when you vote for them. To that end,
VOTE: Sirius9121
What do you think about all this, huh?
