Mini Theme 2161: Undertale C Open - Chara's Folly

[Morning Tweet]

Don't worry I wasn't even sure who he was referring to

[Krazy]

I don't have a strong enough conception of the setup to differentiate between different types of scum at this point

[Tayl0r Swift]

who is daddy?

pedit: oh i see

you dont like the new name?

[Isis]

Spare Votecount 2.3

Hectic--------------------------

Chara---------------------------

(1) CantLynchAPuppy

Prism --------------------------

PookyTheMagicalBear -------

Morning Tweet----------------

Tayl0r Swift -------------------

Lavender ----------------------

Krazy--------------------------

Tanner -------------------------

CantLynchAPuppy-------------

Not sparing:

- (9) Hectic, Chara, Prism, PookyTheMagicalBear, Morning Tweet, Tayl0r Swift, Lavender, Krazy, Tanner

Fight Votecount 2.3

Hectic--------------------------

Chara---------------------------

Prism --------------------------

PookyTheMagicalBear -------

Morning Tweet----------------

Tayl0r Swift -------------------

Lavender ----------------------

Krazy--------------------------

(4) Morning Tweet, Chara, Hectic, CantLynchAPuppy

Tanner -------------------------

(1) Krazy

CantLynchAPuppy-------------

(1) Tanner

Not Fighting:

- (4) Prism, PookyTheMagicalBear, Tayl0r Swift, Lavender

Nahdia noticed some kind of plan to arrange a boating expedition. "Erm, not to break, 'Yes, and', but..". On cue, the raging river dried up, the unspecified source of its flow seeming to have no more to give.
It left behind a smooth, curved, stony riverbed with a damp smell.
Krazy rejoiced at the relief from potentially serving as a vessel. "Guess the turtle isn't the best person to pick on, now, huh?" he quipped.
That put Krazy into thought about who that was instead. He looked around, then grinned when he decided.
That same grin vanished into darkness as Krazy retracted into his shell, his arms, legs, tail, and head all slipping into a conspiratorial blackness as he marshalled resources for his plot. The monsters who had been bullying him looked expectantly at the headhole, wondering what he was up to.
Then, suddenly, a jet of water started spraying out of his left leghole, striking Tanner in the knees and knocking him onto his body. "Oof!" Tanner closed his eye in pain, covering his eyelid in water as the rest of him got wet too..
It didn't take long until Tanner's slickness had him sliding down the incline, and he began rolling down the curved river bank like a wet marble. The monster was thoroughly perturbed, but frustratingly rolled further from the object of his ire with every passing second.

---

It takes six to make a decision. The deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-28 02:00:24)

[Morning Tweet]

I don't have a strong enough conception of the setup to differentiate between different types of scum at this point

basically Not Chara really wants to get spared and really doesn't want to get fought. Moreso than the other regular mafia

[Morning Tweet]

That being said I've been in this game the whole way through and I feel that the Not Chara probably doesn't have very distinguishable characteristics especially at this point.

Sparing was never really on the table and mafia in general really have to keep each other alive regardless of Not Chara status

[Morning Tweet]

Oh I'm forgetting though. Not Chara is going to suicide. So I guess they need to be more careful with their reads to not expose their partner.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I agree we have chances

however our best odds are to win outright today by nailing one of the bad guys

it feels weird to me that some people cough hectic have mailed this in and I would love it if he could come back and convince me this is the right elim today.

cuz tbh i think we probly elim this slot today either way but seeing the thoughts of people might be helpful for tomm if we're wrong here today.

I hope we're not wrong ofc.

[Hectic]

Morning, help, they're forcing me to do stuff when the game will probably be over in a couple of days anyway.

My paranoia read is still Launchy. I feel like he fits the Chara mould of distancing from scum partner (aka Ele) and then not pushing scum partner while voting his counterwagon instead (aka me). The reasoning he used for not pushing Ele at times was also pretty weak (no one else really wants it or I'll give the replacement a chance). Also, there was that interaction between the two of them that looked kinda fake. I'll reread him later tonight.

Still, I very much doubt it changes my mind of wanting that over the slot that soft defended Ele, flaked after Ele was looking like the FIGHT, and had a replacement that read all of day 1, had no opinions on it whatsoever, and then also replaced out. Sorry, Krazy :3

Launchy, you never answered me; why did you scumlean my actions from today?

[Morning Tweet]

Morning, help, they're forcing me to do stuff when the game will probably be over in a couple of days anyway.

Please just let us kill Sujimichi!! I promise I will go over all the paranoia analysis on D3 if necessary, starting with the player who got NKed's posts

ill carry your torch or whatever

I feel pretty decent about that not happening but if it does, i got u

i will also continue to carry on this face for catboi

(^人^)

[Morning Tweet]

leaning daddy and batgirl at the moment but still sorting some slots

The daddy thing got me distracted earlier (very clever of you), but now im starting to realize you're implicating me as the mafia. was it something from our interactions?

[Krazy]

Please just let us kill Sujimichi!! I promise I will go over all the paranoia analysis on D3 if necessary, starting with the player who got NKed's posts

ill carry your torch or whatever

I feel pretty decent about that not happening but if it does, i got u

well when I replace into a slot and people are saying stuff like this, given that I'm town the people wanting to push through my lynch based on predecessor actions without evaluating my slot will tend to be scum

There does seem to be some push on me, some of which is clearly coming from town, but of the slots pushing my lynch right now yours looks a bit scummier than Hectic's. I'll think on it more on the morrow

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

krazy quick towntell hard b4 hectic smooth talks me into voting you thx

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Still, I very much doubt it changes my mind of wanting that over the slot that soft defended Ele, flaked after Ele was looking like the FIGHT, and had a replacement that read all of day 1, had no opinions on it whatsoever, and then also replaced out. Sorry, Krazy :3

Spoiler:

[Tayl0r Swift]

ill carry your torch or whatever

lewd

[CantHateAPuppy]

Morning, help, they're forcing me to do stuff when the game will probably be over in a couple of days anyway.

My paranoia read is still Launchy. I feel like he fits the Chara mould of distancing from scum partner (aka Ele) and then not pushing scum partner while voting his counterwagon instead (aka me). The reasoning he used for not pushing Ele at times was also pretty weak (no one else really wants it or I'll give the replacement a chance). Also, there was that interaction between the two of them that looked kinda fake. I'll reread him later tonight.

Still, I very much doubt it changes my mind of wanting that over the slot that soft defended Ele, flaked after Ele was looking like the FIGHT, and had a replacement that read all of day 1, had no opinions on it whatsoever, and then also replaced out. Sorry, Krazy :3

Launchy, you never answered me; why did you scumlean my actions from today?

missed this earlier

didn't we talk about that stuff yesterday? the best i remember now is you just felt different, and it didn't feel like a town different. today it doesnt really matter to me, we get chara either way so we'll get anyone and it wont make a difference

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

if we lynch chara today we win outright

if we miss chara and it suicides - we still have to find the last scum to win

[Prism]

Hey Krazy, I get that reading the earlier pages probably seems like a big hassle considering the amount of time your slot likely has left alive. I also get that we tend to have much more faith in reads we form while personally involved and active as things progress.

There is a ton of value in Day 1 this game, though, because of the scum wagon that turned this game into Day 2 whiteflag. I think Ctrl+F searching "Elements" in ISOs you're interested in is a good medium, there shouldn't be a lot even if you bothered to do it for every slot, let alone just 2 or 3.

Right now I'm kind of biased because Day 1 is telling me MT is really unlikely, and while the continued suspicion of Puppy might be scumindicative from Tanner, I readily believe that I'm just a lot more inclined to give Puppy significantly more leeway as far as what thoughts seem plausible goes. I really doubt it's MT and don't think it's Tanner is my point, I guess.

I think Tayl0r is, and should, probably be the #1 alternative choice to you right now. I still haven't made up my mind on my tinfoil theory but I have time again to tackle the game today, and hopefully Chara is around and we can either work this out or I can continue my spiral into insanity and gladiate them Day 3.

[Prism]

Who is the person in Prism's avatar?

If you're actually curious about this by the way, it is Molly Rankin, the lead singer/songwriter of Alvvays, as she appeared in their live show at the 2016 CBC Music Festival

[Tayl0r Swift]

Who is the person in Prism's avatar?

If you're actually curious about this by the way, it is Molly Rankin, the lead singer/songwriter of Alvvays, as she appeared in their live show at the 2016 CBC Music Festival

and she is way less attractive and talented than i am, and ill fite anyone who disagrees.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I thought she was the killer robot from Westworld tbh

[Prism]

I think priority #1 here for me should be reading Puppy/Tanner's push on them from a more neutral standpoint. The last time I tackled this, I was definitely working more in reverse than I would have liked (Puppytown -> Why are Tanner's points bad?). I suspect I'll still come out with both town but defusing this and hammering down each would go a long way.

sure. i was already of the thought that "this game is either really easy or there's something concerning going on." and puppy's posts from 1084-1092 just... creeped me out, i dunno, they feel like they belong in the latter gamestate. i wanted to see if he got better, and... he didn't? like i think i'm bringing up a valid concern about the possibility of an *actual* deepscum (though if you feel like i'm not, tell me, because at this point i can't tell myself) and why sparing right now is very dangerous, and i kinda find it odd they didn't interact with it further than "scum wouldn't buss day one, it's silly."

and 1225 is also kinda :/ since it was made right after hectic and i were talking and where it seemed i was a viable vote for today...

I really am struggling to see 1084-1092 scum in the same way you are. Sparing isn't happening, scumPuppy knows it, it's only going to draw attention, and the chance of them personally getting spared even if successful is zero. That doesn't mean they're town for it, but it is plausible as town, so the scumread is really tenuous here to me...The piece Puppy seems to be missing is that 2 correct spares isn't much better for us than 2 misfights, if it even is at all (I again don't want to do math). Without that, their reasoning lines up.

The person they immediately push to spare in 1298 is Chara for the push on Elements. This stuck out to me because I think Hectic was much more of a driving force there-Chara opened it with a vote for scumpings but Hectic really carried that through as I continued to press him to justify it-but is consistent with their 1090, where they don't seem to remember Hectic shoving. Maybe they're being willfully blind as scum, but this process seems really plausible to me.

From Puppy's perspective, this seems to be the case: Sparing might be slightly worse mathematically, but bussing Day 1 is so stupid that no one would do it. We've got such a good chance of getting two good spares that we should take it. I remember Chara as the person who

really

pushed that vote, so that's my first spare vote for sure.

You (Tanner) challenge the assumption that no one would bus Day 1, but I really see why someone would assume that. Even I, who has bussed their way to mathematically suboptimal extremes, am tempted to believe the same.

1225 is also kinda :/ since it was made right after hectic and i were talking and where it seemed i was a viable vote for today...

I can't quite get your point here. This is a slight defense of you while you're being prickly with Hectic, but aren't really in danger at all. I can see this post from Puppy as scum, but their townlean on you seems to be very consistent here. In 536 they try to engage you on your personality being prickly, and this townlean lines up. Ctrl+Fing your name in their ISO makes it clear they townlean you through the 100-400s, and the last we heard from them Day 1 on you in the 600s this still seemed to be the case.

In other words, they're not angling to fight you there, they're openly still wanting to spare over fighting at all, and their progression lines up really well. Am I missing something that makes this scummy to you?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I agree that bussing is very suboptimal for scum on D1 - but considering how elements basically awoled out of the game and then beeboy also awoled - I can see a scum putting a distancing vote on and then not being able to dis-engage as the slot gave them no plausible way to disengage.

Remember in a genocide only scenario the Chara flips if we miss d1 so it's not unreasonable for the chara to place a distancing vote.

That's one reason why I don't like redtea - he really only has scum-equity and minimal chara equity as if he was chara and he managed to move the votes away from Ele - his flip would really seal Ele's fate on the 2nd day.

[Morning Tweet]

Well redtea's reaction to Elements-beeboy gettin killed was more like, ghosting out than anything.

[Prism]

Even just the way that Puppy is interacting with Chara really shows the trust they're placing in their memory of Day 1 imo, which really isn't accurate to me, but makes this seem incredibly legitimate. They open the day by remembering the people who really pushed Elements as them/Chara. Their first spare is Chara because of how they pushed Elements. At some point earlier today they just go "Chara you're obviously town here what are your thoughts..."

Chara started a lot of the Elements stuff for sure, it really pushed it in the 100s especially, but fell off the face of the earth from midway through the day until the end, esp. when beeboy replaces in. They didn't even think they had their vote on them, and revoted while framing it as an activity prod. Forgetting their vote is arguably +town...but I have my reservations that I'll dive into later when Chara gets here.

Point of this isn't really to shade Chara but to really hammer home that I see Puppy's thinking/memory about this slot as very, very plausibly town.