Mini Theme 2165: MafiaSunny (Complete!)

[VP Baltar]

we can't really form any association reads based on today as it is very much a possibility that scum would bus today

I'd mostly co-sign this. Scum in a strong position might try to stay united and hammer one through today, but with both Ythan and I town, bussing is a much more real possibility.

[VP Baltar]

He couldn't have been visited by Ythan or you, as I had already said that you targeted me and Ythan had already claimed to have targeted Agar.

I had not claimed my N3 action at that point I believe. So I think that's incorrect.

[Gamma Emerald]

I’m saying that makes the most sense to me
If it’s duppin and Noraa, I think the more sensible play is maybe try to force a potential view of Noraa being Town with a check on her, assuming the no-kill was intended. While writing this I did remember the leading wagons D2 were duppin’s predecessor, Noraa, and tn, so I’m curious who took what stance there
Also duppin action N4 checks out as “the right thing to do”, which I said earlier and tried to hint at D4

[VP Baltar]

Aside from the fact that UT saw Reck commit the first kill, and the fact that I'm not a good, I was under a lot of scrutiny on both hammers and was a likely investigation target so I'm not sure I follow.

UT caught Reck N2 actually. That would make you the most compromised (hypothetical) scum N3 to kill UT. If I had just lost my roleblocker, I probably wouldn't want to risk increasing the bleeding by my third buddy potentially getting caught.

[duppin]

I think what i will say VP is that I feel you are giving noraa townpass a bit too easy, i get the impression that you have not played with her before and thus are giving her a newb pass but she isn't a bad scum player actually.

I don't think it's newb pass at all. I've been gone from the site for a very long time, so there are few people left here who I have played with (though a disproportionate number in this game)....meaning, I really don't have much to base anyone's play on other than what is happening in this game. I believe you she can be a good scum player, but that'd be some exceptionally good scumplay imo.

I will take time to reread her at some point though and make sure I'm not biasing myself here.

that's fair and maybe i misunderstood your read but it sounded to me like you townread her for pushing the only plausible world she could. the logic itself is relatively simple, there are 2 confirmed towns and she has to push herself as town so means she has to push 2 scum in the pool of 3 but what concerns me is

a) before VP had even counterclaimed me she said she did not believe me and haschel could ever be together - why is that?
b) the inconsistent logic regarding possible haschel/gamma pair
c) she said she believed the solve was me/gamma but then after Haschel counterclaimed me, she wanted to lim Gamma over me

i believe you are giving her way too much credit for her first post

also once again I really want to clarify this: I do not necessarily believe noraa is scum but i believe it is a possibility, she has not convinced me she is town albeit i definitely find her to be slightly more townie than Gamma so far based on today but this is why I refuse to vote anyone but haschel

[VP Baltar]

If it’s duppin and Noraa

Ugh, that would be bad. I feel like I ruled this combo out for some reason, but I don't remember why.

[duppin]

to me her first post came across as her slightly defending haschel without wanting to commit too hard to it and then after he counterclaimed it she tried to push the idea we should lim gamma instead which is exactly what i wouldve expected her to do if she was partners with haschel

on the other hand i definitely also agree that it also makes sense to push this from a town perspective, but there is just a tad too much that concerns me about her that i trust her enough to lim outside

[VP Baltar]

a) before VP had even counterclaimed me she said she did not believe me and haschel could ever be together - why is that?

I mean, that would make no sense, right? Scum would claim both a MD and voyeur? They are very similar roles. I think the only reason that didn't get called out earlier was because it seemed to fit some kind of thematic setup around confusing night actions. With skies' flip, it seems like too much town power to possibly be true.

We haven't seen any evidence of scum power to counter that much power.

[duppin]

you seem to believe everything she has done is coming from a town perspective but in my opinion her play is also the most logical play to go for if she is with haschel so yeah

[duppin]

a) before VP had even counterclaimed me she said she did not believe me and haschel could ever be together - why is that?

I mean, that would make no sense, right? Scum would claim both a MD and voyeur? They are very similar roles. I think the only reason that didn't get called out earlier was because it seemed to fit some kind of thematic setup around confusing night actions. With skies' flip, it seems like too much town power to possibly be true.

We haven't seen any evidence of scum power to counter that much power.

true i agree with that actually

[VP Baltar]

you seem to believe everything she has done is coming from a town perspective but in my opinion her play is also the most logical play to go for if she is with haschel so yeah

Right, I think we're arguing the same point to each other. You're saying I'm giving her too much town cred. I'm saying you're definitely overweighting her argument with you about Haschel. I agree with you she was making a bad point, but that doesn't mean she's scum. She could just also be town that has overcommitted to a solve.

[Noraa]

Spoiler:

Second thing I want to address today is Haschel's voyeur claim. Here are his night actions:

N1: Targeted Reck (bus driver incident, I'll get into this)
N2: Targeted VP
N3: Targeted UT
N4: Targeted Noraa

Ok, so here is the problem with Haschel. Little of the information he provided was not said in thread already (I'm pretty sure), or wouldn't be known by the scum team. CAVEAT: THIS DOES NOT AUTOMATICALLY MAKE HIM SCUM.

But it also means he is not necessarily town.

N1, if Reck and Haschel were scum buddies, Haschel would have bee able to figure out in the scum PT why he got hit by my FN and Ythan's mask N1 because Ythan softclaimed before Haschel when Reck was outted. This is kind of a complex timeline, which I can break down further if needed. But Reck and Haschel are both really smart players. I fully expect they could have figured this out based on Ythan and me both nodding that Reck seemed suspicious.

N2 - Haschel says he targeted me and no one visited me. This is slightly unconfirmed at the time he claims this, but he also knows I already targeted Reck N1 and Haschel N2 since he received my FN confirmation two nights in a row. (FREAKING HILARIOUS IF I TARGETED TWO SCUM). The odds that I wouldn't have claimed more info if I had it were low at this point in the game (massclaim). I actually assume scum had most of the PRs figured out by the time Haschel claimed, so this is mostly knowable.

N3- Saying you targeted UT on the night of the kill is exceptionally safe from a scum perspective....and it actually doesn't even make that much sense from a town perspective? What could be learned by voyeuring the guy who was very likely to die?

N4 - Claims after duppin, so this was known already and a chance to counterclaim a missing action. The wrinkle here is maybe he wasn't intending to counterclaim duppin? Haschel did not know I targeted Noraa (unless he is a scum watcher actually, which would also make sense). I can't fully remove this one from a possible town Haschel column.



Open to hearing thoughts on this, and I should probably do the same for duppin's claims. There could be some nugget in their that proves MD claim is true or not true.

Haschel says I was targeted by a miscellaneous action after I ask in the thread if I can reveal someone visited me. Ig that is fairly meh but directly countering duppin was a bold move if he is scum cuz duppin is definitely TRed more...

Looking at duppin's night actions:

n1: ythan - motion detected
n2: gamma - no motion
n3: gamma - no motion
n4: noraa - motion detected

Duppin claims no motion from gamma well before gamma claims. N1 & N4 were knowable in thread and could be faked. If gamma was town and duppin was scum, that was a risky claim. Gamma could have been some type of soft PR that moves, or he could have been visited one of those nights by Ythan or me. This doesn't exclude a duppin-gamma scum team.

This is a funny quote from duppin's claim:

I suppose i might as well just claim as i am not sure sitting on my claim really matters. I also don't really think it matters whether me or gamma claims first at this point because if he is scum then he should be able to conclude what my read on him is related to i think

i am a motion detector:

n1: ythan - motion detected
n2: gamma - no motion
n3: gamma - no motion

so initially thought gamma was more likely to be town for not doing anything n2 but after him not doing anything n3 either I feel pretty confident about him being town actually.
I don't want to go too wifom on this, but in my opinion i just think it seems logical for mafia to use gamma as the kill after reck flipped assuming one of skies and noora is the other mafia given they were obvious tpr targets.

the only plausibile possibility i can really see if haschel is scum and they used him to do the kill instead i guess, but yeah only possible teammate i can really see for Gamma is haschel but I honestly just think Gamma is town

Using haschel for the kills actually does make sense after he performed that hammer D1, especially if he is a goon.

I agree with this for the most part but I wanted to say that duppin's claim is one of the big reasons I believe in a duppin/gamma solve

I think what i will say VP is that I feel you are giving noraa townpass a bit too easy, i get the impression that you have not played with her before and thus are giving her a newb pass but she isn't a bad scum player actually.
we are in mylo so her pushing out the only possible worlds she can doesn't really mean anything especially not if the team is just haschel + noraa. I will gladly admit I am not looking that much after the second partner right now, I believe both are possible and I do believe noraa has been slightly more town than Gamma today but I do not believe she has been as town as you seem to believe for us to lim outside me and Haschel

"she isnt a bad scum player"
dude come again? I have a 0% win rate as scum and a 100% win rate as town. your stats r wrong. very wrong.

[duppin]

anyway i think i have said all i wanted to for today. I want to lim Haschel, I believe it is the best lim and the mechanical correct.
if you and ythan have such a strong townread on noraa then you should just do what you think is correct

VOTE: Haschel

[Noraa]

to me her first post came across as her slightly defending haschel without wanting to commit too hard to it and then after he counterclaimed it she tried to push the idea we should lim gamma instead which is exactly what i wouldve expected her to do if she was partners with haschel

on the other hand i definitely also agree that it also makes sense to push this from a town perspective, but there is just a tad too much that concerns me about her that i trust her enough to lim outside

first post of the day I pushed a gamma lim.

[duppin]

stats are irrelevant noraa

[Noraa]

anyway i think i have said all i wanted to for today. I want to lim Haschel, I believe it is the best lim and the mechanical correct.
if you and ythan have such a strong townread on noraa then you should just do what you think is correct

VOTE: Haschel

im worried both scum are on haschel rn :/

[duppin]

VP what i will say is that behaviour towards haschel concerns me a lot, you could read her doggos game if you want to and perhaps you understand my concern.

anyway i have really said all i wanted to noraa, i think you have played a more townie day than gamma but i am not convinced you are town, so I am voting on someone I know is scum

[Noraa]

I think this day is going badly. Someones at E-1 that I am not confident is scum.
I could be swayed to believe a haschel/gamma solve but gamma is the safest lim today and I am currently 100% sure gamma is scum

[Gamma Emerald]

Why does that worry you?
If we’re both scum there’s no chance of a quickhammer, right?

[VP Baltar]

Haschel says I was targeted by a miscellaneous action after I ask in the thread if I can reveal someone visited me. Ig that is fairly meh but directly countering duppin was a bold move if he is scum cuz duppin is definitely TRed more...

That's not a bold move at all though? Counterclaiming today and going for a 50-50 is a great scum move in Xylo.

[Noraa]

VP what i will say is that behaviour towards haschel concerns me a lot, you could read her doggos game if you want to and perhaps you understand my concern.

anyway i have really said all i wanted to noraa, i think you have played a more townie day than gamma but i am not convinced you are town, so I am voting on someone I know is scum

you say im more townie than gamma. then why not vote gamma bc that's the safest lim today and the consensus is that gamma lim is the safest currently. Yes if ur town, ur 100% sure haschel is scum but I can't tell which of u is scum because of my circular logic that I've explained a few times now.

[Noraa]

Haschel says I was targeted by a miscellaneous action after I ask in the thread if I can reveal someone visited me. Ig that is fairly meh but directly countering duppin was a bold move if he is scum cuz duppin is definitely TRed more...

That's not a bold move at all though? Counterclaiming today and going for a 50-50 is a great scum move in Xylo.

why?

[Noraa]

Why does that worry you?
If we’re both scum there’s no chance of a quickhammer, right?

that means one town leaning that way and we have a mislim

[VP Baltar]

I agree with this for the most part but I wanted to say that duppin's claim is one of the big reasons I believe in a duppin/gamma solve

That seems highly risky though, doesn't it? It definitely made a connection between them that everyone noticed.

[Ythan]

Haschel or both Gamma and Duppin are scum or it doesn't matter what we say now.