Newbie 2045: A Midwinter Night's Dream - End!


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Post Post #800 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 2:37 pm

Post by Lunar Martian »

In post 792, quiet wrote:More then the occums razor thing, I don’t know why you think it takes so much balls to make the only (informed) claim possible that could save scum. If BB was bluffing, then nothing lost; lunar was already going to get ellimmed. How many other people put BB on cop before the doc claim? Personally, I don’t think his soft claim was all that subtle at all, I thought it was cop or a fake claim entirely, with a lot more weight towards cop.

Out of curiosity, lunar, who did you protect last night?

@safe on the Illwei slot, I’m trying to determine if townIll just doesn’t want to be responsible for hammering. The reasoning was strange, but that uncertainty is strangely...consistent? With how they played?
Obviously I protected BB.
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Post Post #801 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 2:44 pm

Post by Lunar Martian »

In post 797, petapan wrote:mostly the problem is just i don't know what lunar is doing, and they've aleady been resistant toward any sort of open communication. but yo do the though exercise for me right now: if lunar is scum, who is their partner? that needs to be answered before a vote there can be considered

what's your read on mikul right now?
Now that I had to claim I'm much more willing to be open and cooperative. I also am willing to work with some slots more than others. I think I trust you, Illwei, Mikul, and unwnd. I'd love to see quiet flip today, but I am fine with going safebet first too.
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Post Post #802 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 3:12 pm

Post by fferyllt »

Vote Count 2-2
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-- Beatrice Riva



Hypnos had numerous children, all related to aspects of sleep. Phobetor was said to appear in dreams in animal form, including "in the form of beast or bird or the long serpent". As his name suggests, Phobetor was thought to bring nightmares.


quiet
(1): Mikul

Not Voting
(6): unwnd, safebet222, Lunar Martian, Illwei, quiet, petapan


With 7 alive, it takes 4 to eliminate.



Deadline: January 6, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2021-01-05 21:00:00)


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- seeking a replacement for Illwei
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Post Post #803 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 9:14 pm

Post by quiet »

In post 801, Lunar Martian wrote:I think I trust you, Illwei, Mikul, and unwnd. I'd love to see quiet flip today, but I am fine with going safebet first too.
@lunar, can you expand a bit on your reads on safebet, peta, and unwnd?
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Post Post #804 (ISO) » Tue Dec 29, 2020 9:27 pm

Post by quiet »

I’m also provisionally coming around on the lunar town doc claim. Four minute latency between getting put on E-1 and claiming. ScumLunar now has to have had the claim planned in advance, and be willing to pull the trigger in four minutes or less, while also posting two other messages, which prob rules out checking in with partner. Def possible, just less likely.
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Post Post #805 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:25 am

Post by Mikul »

If we even go toward lunar, i'm going to quickly become the most uncooperative towny you ever met

For lunar to fake claim all of the following have to be true

1) They were 100 percent sure bb was a pr
2) They were sure he was actually claiming that role, and was not baiting a night kill
3) They were not just sure he was cop, they were sure he was a cop or tracket

The reason we know this is because the fake claim was doctor. Scum could have claimed anything, literally anything in a situation where they were getting lynched if he was going to get lynched anyway. The doctor claims tells us two things (at the point all this happened). He is actually doctor, they correctly identified what colum we were in and made the right call for a role that lined up with a cop claim that they were not even sure was accurate.

It's way more likely lunar is town and the people on his wagon early on, along with the norfolk wagon are scum
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Post Post #806 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:28 am

Post by Mikul »

or maybe they were trying to bait the doc to cc since he was dying ...

actually just thought about that
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Post Post #807 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:28 am

Post by Mikul »

no that woudn't even make sense. They would have to know there is a doc in a game, in a goon goon setup it would actually be claiming doc for preservation
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Post Post #808 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:30 am

Post by Mikul »

Dunno, I'm not going on lunar. If BB screwed us with the yolo claim that early and they were actually able to pick up on the fact what he was claiming and were sure enough that he was not baiting or claiming his real role. Then I'm prob stuck

to me it's a lot more likely lunar is actually doctor and we are in col 1
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Post Post #809 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:32 am

Post by Mikul »

@saftebet

I set lunar was a gut read and I was willing to vote him, until not long after that they entire wagon went on him without even blinking. Then from there to turtle, and turtle to him, back to turtle

There is a literal sheep wagon that just sticks on diff people and scum are on that wagon.
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Post Post #810 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 7:39 am

Post by unwnd »

Correct me If I'm wrong, but wouldn't they know it was just one cop setup if they were both goons?
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Post Post #811 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:32 am

Post by quiet »

If it’s goon, goon, then at WORST, making the doc claim is a 50/50. No way BB is a mason here, nothing from day1 indicated it in any way. So from scum POV, bb softclaim must be fakeclaim, jailor, cop. Didn’t really credit fake claim, and from the way the soft claim went down, I was thinking an investigative role. Mikul, ask yourself if you had any kind of read on BB when Lunar claimed doctor. In that situation, do you have enough info about BBs role to take the 50/50 on E-1? Totally reasonable from my perspective.

I think it’s productive to discuss, but I agree with mikul that that voting in that direction seems bad today.

Something I’m curious about. Unwnd, why do you feel like safebet is a good vote today? Re-read what you said yesterday, but it was fairly brief/mixed in with a lot of other things. I also think I’ve heard safebets name thrown out as a possibility by a few others (e.g. lunar). Curious where the read is coming from.
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Post Post #812 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 8:43 am

Post by unwnd »

It's basically just PoE at this rate, I'm not prioritizing this game entirely at the moment but rest assured I will come back with thoughts
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Post Post #813 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:13 am

Post by fferyllt »

Battle Mage replaces Illwei. Please welcome him!
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Post Post #814 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:54 am

Post by Battle Mage »

bleh, i rolled town. :facepalm:
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Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
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Post Post #815 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:30 am

Post by Mikul »

@unwnd

last column is cop , mason, or jk

what I'm saying is in a world where scumlunar exists. They have to identify which 3 of those roles exist in the game based on what he said. Then match that up with another row and column for it to make sense and make us think it's a 2pr game. It's possible, just don't see it as probable. For all they know, he could have been baiting a nk, claiming a fake pr, etc. It's a huge gamble even with lunar on the block to get lynched. If he was going down and claimed doc, it would make sense because they could force doc to cc and then kill doc but that would only make sense if we are playing in the column where this is a rb. So if a fake lunar exists, we are almost certainly in a goon goon match and it was for preservation
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Post Post #816 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:41 am

Post by Lunar Martian »

In post 815, Mikul wrote:@unwnd

last column is cop , mason, or jk

what I'm saying is in a world where scumlunar exists. They have to identify which 3 of those roles exist in the game based on what he said. Then match that up with another row and column for it to make sense and make us think it's a 2pr game. It's possible, just don't see it as probable. For all they know, he could have been baiting a nk, claiming a fake pr, etc. It's a huge gamble even with lunar on the block to get lynched. If he was going down and claimed doc, it would make sense because they could force doc to cc and then kill doc but that would only make sense if we are playing in the column where this is a rb. So if a fake lunar exists, we are almost certainly in a goon goon match and it was for preservation
And I'd have to do all this in 4 minutes.

Don't really care for Battle Mage's first post there.
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Post Post #817 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:49 am

Post by Lunar Martian »

In post 803, quiet wrote:
In post 801, Lunar Martian wrote:I think I trust you, Illwei, Mikul, and unwnd. I'd love to see quiet flip today, but I am fine with going safebet first too.
@lunar, can you expand a bit on your reads on safebet, peta, and unwnd?
Yes. Safebet is someone I have as basically blank. I don't think they've done much of anything, nothing that really stands out to me anyway. But I'm fairly confident in thinking everyone else is Town, so that leaves safebet. Peta is going out of his way to interact with people and engage with people and try to understand their thinking. I think that's probably hard to do convincingly as Mafia. Unwnd was a gut feeling I had, but looking back trying to justify it made me question it. More on that in my next post.
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Post Post #818 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:02 pm

Post by Lunar Martian »

In post 697, unwnd wrote:Also Mikul, I still think you're town and I doubt much changes for me. I could say right now again taking claims as clear then my list looks like this

{BBMolla, Lunar}
{Mikul}
{Peta, Safebet}
{Norfolk, Quiet, Illwei}

I'm down with any of the 3 I listed at the bottom. I do not think those 3 contain the scumteam, but numbers remain on our side atp
In post 739, unwnd wrote:I don't think Quiet is the right vote. This is impressive in it's own right if he's fooling me, but the measures he's taken feel too overbearing for having a potential partner. Quiet would be more hush at E-1 and would be afraid of spewing his mate, but instead he's sitting here and
asking what he could do better.
That just

Can't be scumplay.
In post 741, unwnd wrote:I'm pretty fooled by you as well peta if you're scum, you're much more animated than what I've observed of your scumgame, wherein you play a bit more calculated in the way you display your emotions, sometimes using them as a crutch to get you out of bad situations

Not sure where it serves you to switch to norfolk like this as scum lol
In post 777, unwnd wrote:I think Safebet would probably be the safebet (lol) for me because I don't think the game-state has prominently changed overnight. I still think Quiet/Mikul were likely town arguing semnatics with one another and at this current point I'm not willing to suggest the idea of limming there. Do you believe that there is potentially one on Norfolk's wagon, or did scum simply let town shoot themselves in the foot?
The list does not really line up with the other posts, despite some of them coming on the same day as the list.
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Post Post #819 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:15 pm

Post by petapan »

i don't see why it has to, time passed between that list and those other posts and it's possible to someone changes their mind based on new info. i had quiet as possible scum until he got wagoned and then got cold feet, i don't think movement on reads is scummy
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Post Post #820 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:20 pm

Post by safebet222 »

In post 817, Lunar Martian wrote:
In post 803, quiet wrote:
In post 801, Lunar Martian wrote:I think I trust you, Illwei, Mikul, and unwnd. I'd love to see quiet flip today, but I am fine with going safebet first too.
@lunar, can you expand a bit on your reads on safebet, peta, and unwnd?
Yes. Safebet is someone I have as basically blank. I don't think they've done much of anything, nothing that really stands out to me anyway. But I'm fairly confident in thinking everyone else is Town, so that leaves safebet. Peta is going out of his way to interact with people and engage with people and try to understand their thinking. I think that's probably hard to do convincingly as Mafia. Unwnd was a gut feeling I had, but looking back trying to justify it made me question it. More on that in my next post.
Last time I checked there were two scum... how is it possible to see everyone else but me as scum? Something is wrong with your reads, there.
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Post Post #821 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:21 pm

Post by safebet222 »

In post 820, safebet222 wrote:
In post 817, Lunar Martian wrote:
In post 803, quiet wrote:
In post 801, Lunar Martian wrote:I think I trust you, Illwei, Mikul, and unwnd. I'd love to see quiet flip today, but I am fine with going safebet first too.
@lunar, can you expand a bit on your reads on safebet, peta, and unwnd?
Yes. Safebet is someone I have as basically blank. I don't think they've done much of anything, nothing that really stands out to me anyway. But I'm fairly confident in thinking everyone else is Town, so that leaves safebet. Peta is going out of his way to interact with people and engage with people and try to understand their thinking. I think that's probably hard to do convincingly as Mafia. Unwnd was a gut feeling I had, but looking back trying to justify it made me question it. More on that in my next post.
Last time I checked there were two scum... how is it possible to see everyone else but me as town? Something is wrong with your reads, there.
Sorry fixed my post.
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Post Post #822 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:21 pm

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 816, Lunar Martian wrote:
In post 815, Mikul wrote:@unwnd

last column is cop , mason, or jk

what I'm saying is in a world where scumlunar exists. They have to identify which 3 of those roles exist in the game based on what he said. Then match that up with another row and column for it to make sense and make us think it's a 2pr game. It's possible, just don't see it as probable. For all they know, he could have been baiting a nk, claiming a fake pr, etc. It's a huge gamble even with lunar on the block to get lynched. If he was going down and claimed doc, it would make sense because they could force doc to cc and then kill doc but that would only make sense if we are playing in the column where this is a rb. So if a fake lunar exists, we are almost certainly in a goon goon match and it was for preservation
And I'd have to do all this in 4 minutes.

Don't really care for Battle Mage's first post there.
uh...how so?
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Survived to the end and won - 11
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Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

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Post Post #823 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:29 pm

Post by safebet222 »

In post 805, Mikul wrote:If we even go toward lunar, i'm going to quickly become the most uncooperative towny you ever met

For lunar to fake claim all of the following have to be true

1) They were 100 percent sure bb was a pr
2) They were sure he was actually claiming that role, and was not baiting a night kill
3) They were not just sure he was cop, they were sure he was a cop or tracket

The reason we know this is because the fake claim was doctor. Scum could have claimed anything, literally anything in a situation where they were getting lynched if he was going to get lynched anyway. The doctor claims tells us two things (at the point all this happened). He is actually doctor, they correctly identified what colum we were in and made the right call for a role that lined up with a cop claim that they were not even sure was accurate.

It's way more likely lunar is town and the people on his wagon early on, along with the norfolk wagon are scum
I hate the threat... its almost like you're baiting us to go there. Eliminating a perfectly plausible scenario and just throwing up your hands that you'll take the "L" if it is the case is not very town friendly. I get the point of view of not wanting to push there today... but you have to at least consider it at some point if he doesn't die, right?
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Post Post #824 (ISO) » Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:37 pm

Post by Lunar Martian »

In post 821, safebet222 wrote:
In post 820, safebet222 wrote:
In post 817, Lunar Martian wrote:
In post 803, quiet wrote:
In post 801, Lunar Martian wrote:I think I trust you, Illwei, Mikul, and unwnd. I'd love to see quiet flip today, but I am fine with going safebet first too.
@lunar, can you expand a bit on your reads on safebet, peta, and unwnd?
Yes. Safebet is someone I have as basically blank. I don't think they've done much of anything, nothing that really stands out to me anyway. But I'm fairly confident in thinking everyone else is Town, so that leaves safebet. Peta is going out of his way to interact with people and engage with people and try to understand their thinking. I think that's probably hard to do convincingly as Mafia. Unwnd was a gut feeling I had, but looking back trying to justify it made me question it. More on that in my next post.
Last time I checked there were two scum... how is it possible to see everyone else but me as town? Something is wrong with your reads, there.
Sorry fixed my post.
I also think quiet is Mafia.
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