Newbie 2047: Eggskalon - Game Over

[catboi]

Sorry for the fail read on Lone. That's my bad. I need to be less reactive. I think chumbo, donki, muh, and marci are all town, the last mafia is Ninetales or Not_Mafia. Lone voted both of them at different points during the day, soI'm not sure, but I think Not_Mafia would have potentially hammered me when he had the chance.

VOTE: Ninetales

[marcistar]

I think its either ninetales or muh so uhh thinking...

I think the entire scum team is just 2 out of Catboi, Marcistar, Lonemarkhor, and donkihott.
If any of my original scum team is wrong, I would maybe say perhaps Marcistar is just that performative even as town. But I think catboi is not new and has no excuse to play this poorly.

I am a goon
I know I was a townread but masons thing made me scummy.

I don't really know what to make of this...
scumslip?

I doubt its a scumslip. I think Lonemarkhor's just town here. His actions are way to scummy for him to have a buddy in the pt.

this is a townread right?

i dont see any good reads

Town: Pao Pao, Pickles
Still sorting: NotMafia, Muh, LoneMarkhor, Chumbo
Scum: Catboi, Marcistar

some may see this as good, but at most i think its just surface level "good enough" now that im looking back at it ninetales wouldn't ever get off me and catboi, and then "still sorting" a majority of people.. seems weird to me IDK maybe im just hating on them too much

Why I think Marcistar is scum partner with not_mafia is because she voted me for not being so active but ignored not_mafia.Pao because of the post where he said he doesn't believe no_mafia is scum.But then I remembered that many other players are also not noticing not_mafia so I realized I was wrong.

at this post scum-man looked like he was tunneling on not mafia a bit, which tbh i dont think he would do to his partner..? like... this looks like hes apologizing?

N_M why vote muh316?

I feel we should sort out not_mafia first if that's his play style or something.Idk if he'll get any serious. I think scum use D1
for townies to get eliminated as in the end only they get suspected because the scum are just trying to not get suspected.

i know that you'll all think im reading into this too much which tbh i probably am, but this looks like "not mafia voted muh, not mafia needs to be killed."

So nobody else thinks not_mafia is scum?

the more that im reading it doesnt it actually look like hes tunneling????????!

I was thinking of eliminating SEs from starting from scummiest.But it is totally random.There is still a good chance of catching scum at random from SEs.Muh316 and Catboi are townlean. Not_mafia could be scum.Though he hasn't done anything Towny or scummy and perhaps he never will.And it probably could be newbie scum only.

Not_mafia could be scum.

it seems like this is too big of a focus for them to be partners?? imo

theres more mentions of not mafia from him but its wayyy so much.

tho he did,

Catboi could be scum if marcistar was also scum.But right now I think its ninetails and pao .
VOTE: ninetails
I thought pickles was likely town because of his reaction when nine tails scumreaded his readlist but I'll have to read again on pickles.

vote ninetales there, it could possibly be distancing, but idk if this is just me convincing myself she has to be mafia no mater what because of her tunneling on me?

so essentially, i dont agree with the not mafia and muh reads you have catboi.

sorry this is all confusing prob... but im trying to think its kinda hard

scum-man was focusing

HARD

on not mafia, which, dont you recall saying that scum try to invalidate him often??? scum-man was probably trying to get that easy lynch all phase so
if they were partners, i dont think it would've been this hard and constant.

my vote is going on VOTE: muh out of my two scumreads rn.

[catboi]

You do have a point about not_mafia but at the same time Lone might try to press on his partner if he thought they weren't doing anything. I would say he looks less likely, though. I just mainly FoS the people off-wagon more, because I feel like a day 1 bus is unlikely. muh was also very insistent on stuff like waiting for intent to hammer on me and waiting for a replacement, he easily could have voted me himself since he had me as a scumread but stayed on Lone instead. I don't get why muh would bus that much on day 1 (^・ω・^ )

[Chumbo]

My gut reaction to who the other scum would be is Ninetails.
I'm really not sure though. Yesterday I started townreading catboi because he didn't want to hammer Lone, but now knowing that Lone was scum I don't know if I should read it that way anymore. I don't know if Lone would bus his partner up to E-1 and hold his vote there though.

@catboi: You know Not_Mafia, do you think he would make an agreement to bus his partner D1 for some reason?

[donkihott]

Dang it, I wanted to say hi to BM

[donkihott]

VOTE: not_mafia

[Not_Mafia]

I still want donkihott

[donkihott]

I still want donkihott

Dude you are so obvscum just get out of here.

[catboi]

My gut reaction to who the other scum would be is Ninetails.
I'm really not sure though. Yesterday I started townreading catboi because he didn't want to hammer Lone, but now knowing that Lone was scum I don't know if I should read it that way anymore. I don't know if Lone would bus his partner up to E-1 and hold his vote there though.

@catboi: You know Not_Mafia, do you think he would make an agreement to bus his partner D1 for some reason?

I agree you probably shouldn't townread me, hypothetically, if we were both scum, Lone probably wouldn't have felt much choice to. It's not me though! But I think as long a we narrow things down enough it should be good, so it doesn't matter if I am a suspect anymore.

Well, Not_Mafia didn't vote Lone, so he can't have bussed. I think he probably would be willing to do it, though. The real question is whether LoneMarkhor's push on Not_Mafia was a bus or not. If that's what you mean, I don't think he'd tell his partner to do it, but his partner might do it anyway because they feel he's so scummy they need to push on him. I don't think anything necessarily clears him and him still having donki as a scumread still isn't great.

I still want donkihott

Come on, man.

[catboi]

With regard to muh:

Reads, they aren't in a particular order

Towny: Chumbo, Pickles
Nuetral: Not_Mafia, Ninetales, donkihott
Scum Lean: Catboi, Marci, LoneMarkhor

Marci for obvious reasons.
Catboi for even more obvious reasons.
LoneMarkhor for the confusion in reads and WIFOM. Seems like an attempt to confuse the town with the back and forth switching and I sense some urgency here to get an elimination.

Night is almost to come so we must choose a person to eliminate which means scum get a free kill.

VOTE: LoneMarkhor

He easily could have joined the vote on me instead of voting Lone, the fact that he didn't and stayed on Lone instead of hammering me is massively +town from him

[Chumbo]

Well, Not_Mafia didn't vote Lone, so he can't have bussed. I think he probably would be willing to do it, though. The real question is whether LoneMarkhor's push on Not_Mafia was a bus or not. If that's what you mean, I don't think he'd tell his partner to do it, but his partner might do it anyway because they feel he's so scummy they need to push on him. I don't think anything necessarily clears him and him still having donki as a scumread still isn't great.

What I meant by making an agreement to bus his partner was this:

Catboi if you vote lone I will declare intent

[catboi]

Ah, that. Well, at that point he was locked into defending me, he wouldn't have had a ton of choice in the matter. I wouldn't clear him based on that.

[muh316]

I still want donkihott

I actually agree with you for a change!

I think donkihott's votes have been opportunistic and scummy. For example, let's look at the initial vote on catboi.

Well since, you want to pressure people for the deadline, okay. Claim
VOTE: catboi

This vote came around 2-3 days before the deadline asking for a claim. Donkihott saw a wagon being formed and jumped on it immediately.

Why did you claim without "intent to hammer", as you said you will wait for? You cannot play the newbie card being SE. Being VT makes it easy as well.
Btw the elim order is catboi > idk ahhahahaha

@muh, do your thing

Then there's this asking me to hammer catboi, even though I was in no rush to hammer and would have preferred a Lone elimination.

Then there's the hammer on Lone which I think is scum!Donkihott trying to save himself in a last ditch attempt to clear himself away from his scum partner.

VOTE: LoneMarkhor

And then follow that up with the bussing between Lone and Donkihott at the end of the day, it all just seems like scum trying to distance from each other. Probably Lone trying to clear his scum partner of any accusations before his elimination. I've seen it a lot where scum will hammer their partners in an attempt to seem town since suspicion falls on the one that's off the scum wagon.

The interaction between Lone and Donkihott was just very odd at the end of the day.
There's this vote on Donki by Lone which seemed to have come out of nowhere and just seems like a last ditch attempt of clearing his partner before being eliminated.

VOTE: donki
Due to the reaction between catboi and donki, I feel more like donki is scum while catboi is genuinely frustrated as town.If catboi was scum he'd rather have eliminated me with not_mafia's offer to save his skin.

Therefore, I will VOTE: donkihott

[donkihott]

[Not_Mafia]

Btw there's a 1/3 chance we're in a set-up with just one PR.

Everyone should confirm if they are a friendly neighbour in their next post. If there is a Friendly Neighbour then the 2 PRs plus the innocent from the JK or Tracker gives us 3 conftowns and leaves us with 1 scum to find in 4 people and 3 eliminations to do it, which is a 75% chance to win.

If there isn't one and there is a tracker then they know they either have a doc or JK to protect them and can out results with more confidence,

If there are masons then those claiming puts us in a good position, with 3 eliminations in 5 players. But it's debatable whether they should claim.

[donkihott]

All I see from the post above is scum claiming VT, throwing some numbers to confuse the newbies while trying to hunt down possible PR's.

Your logic is straight shit and the numbers you are pulling out of your a are wrong. Kill him and lets go to the next game. I thought this player is not just a shitposter but apparently he is.

[Not_Mafia]

Which numbers are wrong?

[donkihott]

The chance for having a setup in which there is only 1 role is 2/9 which is lower than 1/3 and when you take that into consideration (which you didn't) your puffed 75% chance goes extinct.

[marcistar]

The real question is whether LoneMarkhor's push on Not_Mafia was a bus or not. If that's what you mean, I don't think he'd tell his partner to do it, but his partner might do it anyway because they feel he's so scummy they need to push on him.

lone pushed not mafia sooo consistently, they never got off of susing not mafia, so i feel like they wouldn't be partners.
(scum does bus each other sometimes, but lone did it

too

consistently to be partners with not mafia imo.)
i feel like it was the case where not mafia is easy to pick off so he had been trying to make people get on that

[donkihott]

Actually lone pushed for not_mafia only at the beginning

[donkihott]

@Ninetails are you even here? You haven't posted since Jan3

[marcistar]

really? didnt feel like it to me.

what it felt like was a strong push in the beginning, and then being more subtle as to put doubt but not seem like hes pushing it too much.
theres so many places where he mentions not mafia

[Not_Mafia]

The chance for having a setup in which there is only 1 role is 2/9 which is lower than 1/3 and when you take that into consideration (which you didn't) your puffed 75% chance goes extinct.

We have a goon flip, there are 12 possible goon scum-slots we could have flipped slots across the set-ups, 4 of those goon slots are in set-ups with just one PR. 4/12 = 1/3.

This has no effect on or relevance to the 75% number. If there is a Friendly Neighbour and they claim, plus the Tracker/JK and their innocent result. That's 3 conftown out of 7 players, meaning we have 3 eliminations between 4 possible scum, meaning we have a 3/4 chance to hit scum.

Please learn how to do basic maths or to read properly before invoking such snarkiness.

[catboi]

I don't think we need to out roles after a day 1 scum elim unless that person is a suspect. I also don't suspect donkihott, the day ended with Lone unvoting me to vote donki which lead to donki hammering Lone, that never happens if they are scum together.

Also, the power role is very obvious, they don't need to out.

[catboi]

The real question is whether LoneMarkhor's push on Not_Mafia was a bus or not. If that's what you mean, I don't think he'd tell his partner to do it, but his partner might do it anyway because they feel he's so scummy they need to push on him.

lone pushed not mafia sooo consistently, they never got off of susing not mafia, so i feel like they wouldn't be partners.
(scum does bus each other sometimes, but lone did it

too

consistently to be partners with not mafia imo.)
i feel like it was the case where not mafia is easy to pick off so he had been trying to make people get on that

Right now, I would say that I agree, especially with the way Ninetales made an excuse for Lone as being too scummy to be scum. What do you think about my points on muh?