Micro 1003: Divide and Conquer - Game Over!


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Post Post #1025 (ISO) » Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:31 pm

Post by No Face »

When have I ever pushed you when you were scum? I.i
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Post Post #1026 (ISO) » Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:32 pm

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

never

I just pocket you before you get going

you only push me when you're town
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Post Post #1027 (ISO) » Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:33 pm

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

meant you only push me when I'm town

I usually pocket you when I'm scum like immediately?
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"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."

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"Please refrain from diverting our sleuths out there Pooky."
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Post Post #1028 (ISO) » Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:35 pm

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

have you ever played scum vs town me? I dont know all your alts :3

i remember every time I'm scum and you're town you usually don't push me and I end up pocketing you.

when we're town together usually you townread me except when you don't and then we end up doing some shitty fight
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"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."

-Norwee


"Please refrain from diverting our sleuths out there Pooky."
~Maple
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Post Post #1029 (ISO) » Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:35 pm

Post by No Face »

Menalque
Ydrasse
Vanders
Norwee
Pooky

are my reads right now for the group of 6 actually. That Vanders wall looks solid

What do you think of Norwee, Pooky? *.*
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Post Post #1030 (ISO) » Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:37 pm

Post by No Face »

In post 1028, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:have you ever played scum vs town me? I dont know all your alts :3

i remember every time I'm scum and you're town you usually don't push me and I end up pocketing you.

when we're town together usually you townread me except when you don't and then we end up doing some shitty fight
Uh.... Trust Fall was the only game I rolled scum while you were playing and that was with you lol

How do you think you would react to my vote here if you were scum then?.?
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Post Post #1031 (ISO) » Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:40 pm

Post by No Face »

Does Norwee really put himself in the group of 6 to suffer like that though? I feel like that's a very good reason to townread both Norwee and Ydrasse /-/
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Post Post #1032 (ISO) » Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:41 pm

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

I'd pour you some tea and tell you a story about a Plumber and his favorite teddy bear and at the end of it you would be convinced I could do no harm.
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"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."

-Norwee


"Please refrain from diverting our sleuths out there Pooky."
~Maple
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Post Post #1033 (ISO) » Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:42 pm

Post by No Face »

I think:

Pooky/skitter
Vander/Bingle

are my predictions

I did it guys, I did the preflip analysis
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Post Post #1034 (ISO) » Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:43 pm

Post by No Face »

In post 1032, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:I'd pour you some tea and tell you a story about a Plumber and his favorite teddy bear and at the end of it you would be convinced I could do no harm.
Who do you think it is in the 6-group if this is a TvT? v:
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Post Post #1035 (ISO) » Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:44 pm

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

I'm pretty sure Norwee is town - his opinions this game have been pretty unrestrained and his engagement is pretty much around his town level.
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"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."

-Norwee


"Please refrain from diverting our sleuths out there Pooky."
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Post Post #1036 (ISO) » Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:48 pm

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

In post 1034, No Face wrote:
In post 1032, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:I'd pour you some tea and tell you a story about a Plumber and his favorite teddy bear and at the end of it you would be convinced I could do no harm.
Who do you think it is in the 6-group if this is a TvT? v:
I think its between Ydra and Vand if this is TvT, lean towards Vander - they're both very vehemently on your side, which is kinda how I think scum would play if they had a TvT fight in the thread to hide in.

Don't think Mena would WK me here cuz he's in the elim pool and it's just way easier for him to just lol-hammer me,
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"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."

-Norwee


"Please refrain from diverting our sleuths out there Pooky."
~Maple
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Post Post #1037 (ISO) » Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:49 pm

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

I kinda doubt this is TvT though cuz I think town!you would've reconsidered when the game state rushed towards an early elimination instead of continuing to push.
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"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."

-Norwee


"Please refrain from diverting our sleuths out there Pooky."
~Maple
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Post Post #1038 (ISO) » Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:53 pm

Post by No Face »

I don't think you were ever going to be early launched and I've seen my fair share of scum being run up quickly and then town thinking "no way, that was too easy for this to be scum" to put any stock into that.

Remember redtea/Sujimichi's wagon in Undertale and how close we were to just winning there? But people got cold feet because it was too quick or whatever 7_7
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Post Post #1039 (ISO) » Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:55 pm

Post by No Face »

Sometimes town are just right, or scum bus and hope town thinks the wagon was too easy a.z
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Post Post #1040 (ISO) » Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:57 pm

Post by Vanderscamp »

In post 1036, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:
In post 1034, No Face wrote:
In post 1032, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:I'd pour you some tea and tell you a story about a Plumber and his favorite teddy bear and at the end of it you would be convinced I could do no harm.
Who do you think it is in the 6-group if this is a TvT? v:
I think its between Ydra and Vand if this is TvT, lean towards Vander - they're both very vehemently on your side, which is kinda how I think scum would play if they had a TvT fight in the thread to hide in.

Don't think Mena would WK me here cuz he's in the elim pool and it's just way easier for him to just lol-hammer me,
In post 829, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:pretty sure van is just a wrong townie who is really sure he is right

What changed?
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Post Post #1041 (ISO) » Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:58 pm

Post by NorwegianboyEE »

In post 615, Infinity 324 wrote:
In post 608, Vanderscamp wrote:I would expect scum in that pool to try harder to appear town
I'm not sure I agree, I think trying to just be friendly with people is an approach scum!pooky could take. Tbh no face has been townier so I'm ok with voting pooky once we get a VC.

I have somewhat of a soul read on norwee and I don't think he ever flips scum here
From my limited experience with scum!Pooky he doesn’t tryhard as mafia. I don’t think it’s a good reason to townread Pooky from Vanders here.
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Post Post #1042 (ISO) » Wed Apr 07, 2021 6:59 pm

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

I think we just disagree about whether I was going to be early launched and I have the added benefit of knowing I'm town so the danger feels a lot more real to me
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"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."

-Norwee


"Please refrain from diverting our sleuths out there Pooky."
~Maple
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Post Post #1043 (ISO) » Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:00 pm

Post by NorwegianboyEE »

In post 621, Vanderscamp wrote:
In post 617, Ydrasse wrote:
In post 616, Vanderscamp wrote:
In post 610, Ydrasse wrote:im obvtown btw
Great, why?
read me iso
No, I want your take.

My take is that you're not at all obvtown.
And it’s not a very good take imo.
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Post Post #1044 (ISO) » Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:01 pm

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

In post 1040, Vanderscamp wrote:What changed?
your line about it being better to elim in the 6 pool made me remember your argument with me about the three pool in the beginning of the game and I think it's convenient that you changed your mind about what the best mech play is now that you have a target close to elim.
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"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."

-Norwee


"Please refrain from diverting our sleuths out there Pooky."
~Maple
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Post Post #1045 (ISO) » Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:03 pm

Post by No Face »

In post 1036, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:Don't think Mena would WK me here cuz he's in the elim pool and it's just way easier for him to just lol-hammer me,
I don't get this btw

Hasn't everyone townread Menalque? It's not a big concern for him, and lolhammering you would make him lose a lot of cred if he's scum and needs to survive long l.l
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Post Post #1046 (ISO) » Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:08 pm

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

In post 1045, No Face wrote:
In post 1036, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:Don't think Mena would WK me here cuz he's in the elim pool and it's just way easier for him to just lol-hammer me,
I don't get this btw

Hasn't everyone townread Menalque? It's not a big concern for him, and lolhammering you would make him lose a lot of cred if he's scum and needs to survive long l.l


Mena is a very high energy player.

It is exhausting to keep up that level of town energy if he is scum, it's much better for him that the days are shorter and he swims forward rather than drawing things out.

Also kinda doubt he gets any blowback from a lol-hammer since you're the one being the primary pusher.
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"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."

-Norwee


"Please refrain from diverting our sleuths out there Pooky."
~Maple
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Post Post #1047 (ISO) » Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:08 pm

Post by No Face »

In post 1036, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:I think its between Ydra and Vand if this is TvT, lean towards Vander - they're both very vehemently on your side, which is kinda how I think scum would play if they had a TvT fight in the thread to hide in.
I do agree with this and the way Vanders has agreed with me has given me Farkran-pocketing-Day-vibes all over again but I'm unsure st this moment if that's paranoia or reasonable

I'm pretty sure Ydrasse is town for other reasons

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Post Post #1048 (ISO) » Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:18 pm

Post by Vanderscamp »

In post 1044, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:
In post 1040, Vanderscamp wrote:What changed?
your line about it being better to elim in the 6 pool made me remember your argument with me about the three pool in the beginning of the game and I think it's convenient that you changed your mind about what the best mech play is now that you have a target close to elim.
I really, REALLY don't believe you think this, especially since in my 2000 word explanation to you about it I've never once said that it's better to kill into the big pool.
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Post Post #1049 (ISO) » Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:20 pm

Post by Vanderscamp »

In post 203, Vanderscamp wrote:
In post 197, Infinity 324 wrote:You're talking in a way that's like "if the day ended now", when I don't think that's a useful mindset to have, a lot is going to happen on this day 1. You don't have to believe me
In post 198, Bingle wrote:
In post 187, Vanderscamp wrote:But I think it's very conceivable that we never get confirmed towns or scum NKs in the smaller group before losing the game, why do you expect this to happen if we initially kill into the large pool?
If we correctly elim in the small pool (1/3), we're looking at scum needing to miseliminate 3 times in the big pool to win. This is 5/6*4/5*2/3 for optimal play, or about 44%. Yes, scum wins a little bit less than half the time if we correctly eliminate in the small pool. 6:1 with a single IC is not a very strong position for town.

In any other case, scum should be shooting into the bigger pool tonight. As Pooky pointed out, the interactions are more telling when the big pool scum player is on the line than when the little pool scum player is on the line. Therefore, hitting the big pool scum player inevitably gives more information than hitting the small pool scum player.
I agree hitting the big pool scum player is much better, I don't think anyone is arguing that.
But it's also half as likely.

I personally think ensuring that we can kill one scum before we lose the game is more valuable than the other strategies, which is not the case if we aim into the big pool first.
But I mostly agree with whoever said earlier that we should probably just aim to kill the most suspicious player.


I REALLY don't like the idea of leaving the big pool lynch up to the small pool, I'll fight hard against that one.
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