Open 815: Forest Fire Redux [Endgame]

[Noraa]

Lukewarm is townnnn

I would be more than happy to vote them if you lay out some persuasive & specific reasoning for them.

Lukewarm as scum is laying out a Noraa lim then a T3 lim tomorrow. Assuming he didn't decide to prime skitter for some reason, the three primed targets blow up for a scum win.
Prism said that it would be better to scum read T3 or leave room to lim. If I were scum and I saw potential mislims for the future that ARENT VERY ACTIVE, plan of action would be to TR them and the next day be like "I want to TR them but its impossible with their activity levels" which leads a solid and steady path to that mislim. I don't think anything Lukewarm has done is locktown worthy. His whole play is SO towny that it's probably scum. Lukewarm's a newbie and in his last game with me, his town game was not this flawless and shiny. I find him very towny. But I don't think that says good things about his alignment.
Volunteering to be the lim if a read is wrong. Pretty towny. I've done that a couple times myself as town. These are all things that scum me could easily pull though. I don't think lukewarm has done anything that is locktown worthy and the more people keep saying his is locktown, the more paranoia is building up and I don't know what to do with this paranoia because no one agrees with it except for Hectic who is my other scum candidate. Lukewarm says his points that I am scum aren't around my play yesterday of trying to break up the town block but that is really the only reason that I see in his other posts. I mean, Lukewarm, if you're town, I would like to hear more specifics about what you are thinking. You say breaking up the town block isn't AI but then you say coming in with it the day before is scummy. Your recent post says you can't figure out why. Try to word it in words because I only find you more scummy for that. While you may be convinced I am scum, if I die today, I will still tunnel you tomorrow which could end up contributing to a scum win if you aren't scum.

I have a meta tell on Hectic. I don't want to drop it but his other actions are ok material to work off of also. I still think his read was fake. He admits it was confbiased which I don't like because I feel like I felt something wrong there but it was immediately covered up. I'm not a fan of how a lot of his reads feel like duplicates of my own reads. Every time I'm scum, people call me out for having reads that mirror theirs which feels like what I see here. Hectic is also good scum though so that makes me wonder if I'm just wrong because I'd never catch scum him. I don't know. My read on him has lessened because I really just think Lukewarm is scum now. I can say more on this read since its a read I've been on and off about all game and that probably looks bad but I don't know. I both believe in it and don't believe in it. I mean I also still just dislike his read on me. Ugh like he comes in and he's like skitter is scum Noraa. The game ends now. Pretty sure Noraa is town because controversial reads. Which really is just ... no. Like when have I ever really agreed with consensus reads regardless of alignment? It is "classic Noraa" but its not AI and the way that read was just so carelessly given was just. I don't know. I still don't like his slot ig.

[Prism]

I am for their interactions with HEM. The read around me is sketchy but Infinity voting is what actually sealed HEM. Infinity respects this table way, way too much to try to shut out all of us on her own.

P-Edit: Thanks Noraa, about to take a nap but will read later!

[Hectic]

Noraa you got better! No matter your alignment. I like this noraa

Thank you that means a lot to me. I recently was actually reading through some of my past games. I recently met a very toxic player(we are not naming names and I am not trying to attack anyone everyone goes through phases and I understand) but it really struck deep realizing what my play had evolved into. I looked through some past games. Prism might've reminded me of cabd because that was a game that I recently read actually. Reading that game hurt my soul. It hurt so bad realizing how bad my play was and just how terrible I could be. Ok this is a discussion for a different place but this does mean a lot to me. I'd like to think my play is no longer a toxic shitfest of the most useless garbage. AHH ok I need to stop. I kept doing this recently. but this means a lot. it really really does.

Nakata thought this post rung as very emotionally honest and thinks it would be very distasteful for Noraa to be using it to try to manipulate people into TRing her here. However, Nakata admits he doesn’t know Noraa that well or if she would share his opinion about this, and maybe Nakata is weighting it too heavily, especially as he supposes that Noraa isn’t actually pointing to this post or her different attitude here and trying to use that to get townreads from people.

Okay, Nakata must leave. Nakata will return later, tree friends!

This post came out of the depths of my heart. Toxicity in town games was a real issue for me for the longest time. No hectic, it is not NAI. I don't get toxic as scum or at least I very very rarely do. But my town game was a huge shitfest for months and months and it was painful for me and the people around me who knew I didn't like being an asshole. What infinity said meant a lot to me because of that. I don't want to go into this here honestly.

Nakata, I do use AtE when I am scum to get people to TR me. While I think it is probably near my scum range, I never quite go that deep as scum because that's when it starts hurting to see people believe me.

Oh no, this feels towny

Why are you sold on T3-town, Noraa?

[Prism]

Like there's T3, who may or may not have a ton of confidence in his scumgame and hesitates to bus in general, and then there's Infinity saying "Yeah I can totally swing 3 miselims single-handedly against Skitter, Prism, Hectic, and Ydrasse" and I find that soooooo unlikely

[Hectic]

It means Noraa!scum would have to be faking the emotion there for parts but I'm still not sure if it's

distasteful

[Noraa]

Why are you sold on T3-town, Noraa?

I'm not but I have too many scum reads as it is.

[Hectic]

Noraa has become lock scum for me as of this page. I am ready to 1v1 her to the death. If we kill her today, and she flips town, I will take the elim tomorrow.

Spoiler:

No, I cannot explain what happened on this page to lock her as scum for me, which I know is

really crappy

- but that is why I am willing to offer myself up as the miselim tomorrow, to make up for me not being able to explain my reasoning

My game plan for Day 4 was to ask everyone if we should kill a paranoia target (out of me, prism, infinity) anyways, because the 3 of us were all most likely going to be primed at that point, so there was little risk, but I am 100% down to be the paranoia vote tomorrow.

lol I don't know why but I find this hilarious

I kind of get a feeling of what you might be talking about though and thought and didn't want to mention the same thing

[Hectic]

Oh nvm, it wasn't on that page. I was thinking of Noraa discussing safe stumps on doused targets a day earlier than we should

[Hectic]

Why are you sold on T3-town, Noraa?

I'm not but I have too many scum reads as it is.

What's your read on him independent of everyone else?

[Lukewarm]

Lukewarm as scum is laying out a Noraa lim then a T3 lim tomorrow. Assuming he didn't decide to prime skitter for some reason, the three primed targets blow up for a scum win.
Prism said that it would be better to scum read T3 or leave room to lim. If I were scum and I saw potential mislims for the future that ARENT VERY ACTIVE, plan of action would be to TR them and the next day be like "I want to TR them but its impossible with their activity levels" which leads a solid and steady path to that mislim. I don't think anything Lukewarm has done is locktown worthy. His whole play is SO towny that it's probably scum. Lukewarm's a newbie and in his last game with me, his town game was not this flawless and shiny. I find him very towny. But I don't think that says good things about his alignment.

If you think this is scum me trying to push you though, are you willing to gladiate? Like if you are sure its me, and I am sure its you, then we can just both get eliminated.

I am confident enough in my scum read on you to even go first if you want.

[Prism]

I have so much to say but it is time to SLEEP

[Hectic]

I'm really curious on your secret reason to lockscum Noraa from last page, Lukewarm

I think you're allowed to say if it's influenced by ongoing games but have to leave it at that

[Hectic]

GOOD NIGHT PRISM

[Lukewarm]

Noraa has basically just scum claimed, in case anyone missed it.

Lukewarm is pretty eh. He's contributing a lot less to the game than when I last saw him.

In my last game with you, I felt deeper analysis than this extremely shallow surface level wagon analysis.

I don't think anything Lukewarm has done is locktown worthy. His whole play is SO towny that it's probably scum. Lukewarm's a newbie and in his last game with me, his town game was not this flawless and shiny. I find him very towny. But I don't think that says good things about his alignment.

Noraa looked at my play yesterday, and I was "pretty eh" "contributing less then our last game" and "last game I had deeper analysis"

Now, Noraa is saying "luke's game is too flawless" and "last game, I was not"

They scum read me first because I was not as good as last game, but now they are scum reading me because I am too much better then last game. Noraa's takes on me are contradictory, because they are not genuine.

[Hectic]

Noraa, your whole Lukewarm read feels extremely reachy to me. You say Lukewarm is a newbie and he wasn't this towny and shiny when you last played with him - it would be even MORE impressive then if he was scum and managed to pull this off

You say Lukewarm is once again lining up a T3 elim by townreading T3 - why are you seeing some ulterior motive to Lukewarm's townread on T3 rather than anyone else calling T3 town or slots calling T3 potential scum? I can't see why you've honed in with this moonlogic on Lukewarm over anyone else

You say everyone else is calling him locktown which just increases your paranoia of him - that's not a reason to think it's scum, it's a strong counterpoint

You say his gladiating is towny but could technically be faked - it feels like you're jumping hurdles to force this read

[Noraa]

I just think Lukewarm is scum here. I think he's too towny. I think he's too scummy. I think nearly every path of paranoia and wifom leads to him. I'm OMGUSing. I'm worried he'll get me killed. I think he's the deep wolf and I want to not lose to him.

I originally thought Lukewarm was scum because he felt more empty than he did last game. Once he started posting more, his play evolved into a whole different thing that was very towny and scummy all in one. Flawless was the wrong word choice but every post was made with a purpose. This feeling that he was constantly thinking of what he should do what he could do. And it felt like experienced scum.

A gladiator offer does nothing truly. I do think Lukewarm is scum but that gladiate offer is just dumb. This is a vanilla setup and saying something like that only makes people townread you more. I am so so paranoia of Lukewarm. I truly think Lukewarm is deepwolf here and that town is about to lose because every time I feel like I've caught onto something, he says something extremely towny that makes me rethink my read and I always do this when I catch deep wolves. Every single time they just slip out of my grasp because I move elsewhere but I just think that Lukewarm is deep wolf here. Sure it could be hectic but siding with Lukewarm here doesn't help hectic for tomorrow.

[Lukewarm]

Noraa is getting desperate. Earlier she said this

If I cannot get at least half of this game to believe I am town, I should die today because tomorrow is lylo

and

Seeing the gamestate, I will much rather die today than tomorrow.

But now that that their earlier posts did not get them town read, they are becoming more survivalistic. Refusing my 1v1, and saying things like ,

I'm worried he'll get me killed.

which makes less sense if they were being genuine before.

Spoiler: @Hectic

my "secret reason" as you put it is in fact due to ongoing games. In general, I do not like saying that line, and would much rather push them over them being contradictory/ingenuine over their read on me and how they feel about being the elim today

[Lukewarm]

Just so everyone knows where I am at, I don't think I have ever been more sure of a read in my entire life lol

[Lukewarm]

Okay, I just searched through the mokey's iso, and this is literally every single time that child of faries was mentioned (spoiler for the spoiler, its not much)

Spoiler:

As of now, I'm willing to elim between Infinity 324, Fidget, Child of Fairies and maybe maybe maybe Prism.

Willing to elim between Fidget, Child, Hectic

Let's talk about who I won't elim. I won't elim you and Prism. I'll be cool with Child or Fidget. I'll hesitate with T3 and Hectic (I think Hectic looked good when he came back from V/LA). I'll deeply hesitate with Ydrasse and Lukewarm.

Child is listed in his PoE every time, but he never votes there, he never tries to steer the town that direction, he never even makes a single post where he points out anything that he found scummy from Child. Child is litterally mentioned in three of his posts. Exactly the posts where he lists his poe.

Compare that to how he handles the other people in his PoE lists

Spoiler: Infinity

Page 6. From the get go, I don't believe that Infinity's reads are genuine. She makes these reads but I don't believe her process. First example is her read on Prism as town, but it's barely obvious what's town about Prism at the time she made that read and I don't buy her current explanation when I asked her. Another example is in #125 - reads Ydrasse as scum because she expects deeper out of Ydrasse but it's page 6 and we've only begun to escape RVS at this point. Oh, and then she votes Hectic even though it's also not apparent that Ydrasse has stopped doing what she thought was scummy.

VOTE: Infinity Let's see if I don't change my mind after Page 6

see here: Prism is talking about her reads and Infinity jumps on this with an agreement — but they're talking about different games. It doesn't seem like an actual evaluation happened here, just an opportunity to piggyback a read.

Either I'm not understanding Infinity's process at all or she doesn't have one because this does not follow. Maybe she can explain?

EBWOP

see here: Prism is talking about her reads and Infinity jumps on this with an agreement — but they're talking about different games. It doesn't seem like an actual evaluation happened here, just an opportunity to piggyback a read.

I don't understand how this is AI at all since I didn't agree with prism's original assessment of luke's meta, just the conclusion

in this example, as well as my other examples, it appears to me that you don't really have your own reads/you're faking them because it's not obvious to me that there's a process there

Infinity, I feel like you really can't say that I'm not trying to engage you because my entrance involved a direct quote and a question for you.

Spoiler: Fidget

Fidget's reads in #484 and #485 gives a lot of leeway on herself to flip her reads on some slots. Like she'd call a slot town, and then give a scenario that they're scum. It just doesn't seem like an actual stance to me.

even #486 and #487.

Actually I'll just re-quote it so it's fresh for your memory.

Sure being an object of focus is kinda "nyeh" but I also am unsure I've exhibited too much I couldn't do as scum. The aforementioned not just sitting on you is fair though. I'm more referring to Hectic, T3, whoever else having me as decent town early. I would kill to know why although it's partially my curiosity asking as I'm not certain it will be productive or not.

Prism I believe I've seen you play scum a couple other times, I remember reading a couple of your posts from a recent normal and a newbie I think and wondering how scum could possibly post those things. Even just skimming the post you linked here I'm wondering about what your approach would be here to control the narrative, and I need a lot of evidence that you're trying and failing to control the narrative to satisfactorily answer the question of "what the hell happened for scum!prism to get into this situation?" I wouldn't call it a townread yet, but

It feels like you're arguing why Prism could be scum rather than why Prism is scum. You've mentioned this before that Prism has a wide scumrange, and that's certainly fair, although exactly why you find Prism scummy has been unclear to me. You've countered reasons for townreading Prism, but what's your suspicion? I suppose it's a gut level read and hard to articulate. My point is just that it seems like you're countering "Prism couldn't be scum" logic more than addressing why Prism is scum in the first place.

I don't totally get the case against Prism.

Johhny, Faries, and Prism are my top 3 scum after a reread.

What changed in this 14 min game here?

Like what did you see in the reread that you missed the first time?

Another thing that draws me to townreading T3. If you're scum keeping track of reads, I feel like one of your most prevalent forged reads would be the very last post you made 10 min ago.

I get that opportunism is a thing but so blatant and unnecessary seems like and odd move. Prism didn't need more attackers, especially when my stance and Infinity's are still unclear or leaning suspecting.

This is a pretty dumb take by me if T3 really is scum and genuinely just isn't keeping track of their faked reads and posts whatever on the fly. It's possible, I just find it less likely compared to inconsistent town thoughts at the moment. Cause I see (and feel that myself) as town all the time.

Oh I missed it since you quoted a bunch of stuff to me

I said I was waiting for fidget to townpost but she hasn't yet

fair

yeah i’m just waiting on some good takes

Out of curiosity, do you either of you two know who I am? I don't respond to guesses or anything but some people just know.

On one hand, waiting for me to show my true colours is a tried and true tactic since there is a distinct difference when I turn on. On the other, it doesn't typically happen on the first day. I just found it moderately interesting you're both taking an interest with me this way.

So who are you thinking about/wanting to look at right now? I imagine there are still thoughts about me swirling around, but curious as to where you go from here.

My feelings on Johnny are pretty much in stasis as I don't believe he's come back since then. He's.. probably my current guess. He got traction quite easily, but I can buy that from D1 in a game where he'd only have one partner. And there's been you as a counter, so whatever.

In my mind, Johnny TMIing you and Hectic as town is probably my favored view of the game, and his partner is just whoever. Don't really have an opinion there.

I could be falling into a trap of townreading the actives but I'm at least inclined to say I'm not, I felt decent about my Hectic lean and I don't really have an opinion on you outoide of gut but the threads relative ease towards killing you bolsters my confidence slightly.

Out of the rest of the cast I think Lukewarm and T3 are most town and I'm gray on Infinity, ydrasse, and Fairies. I had tiny points in favor of the first two earlier in the game but nothing that makes me feel fantastic.

Actually yeah there was more with Infinity with regards to her approach to your wagon that seemed genuine to me though, forgot abt that yesterday. I'd probably say she's a bit less likely, I don't think her stances towards you were *quite* necessary. After a town elim on you that seems like a lot of stress for relatively little gain. Feel more likely it's town that believes you're scum but without a good reason why. Not certain though

If Fairy and Johnny are my bottom players though that is really just less active players = scummier, sigh. Johnny suspicion still likely my best lead at the moment. Guess it falls apart if I'm reading you or Hectic wrong.

Spoiler: Hectic

Not sure how to read Hectic because he intimidates me as a player and I'm inclined to just assume he's scum, but his response to Prism's pressure Page 8 is towny

I will admit that the scum push on Hectic is a bit sparser, but this is still more then he gives Child.

Also, he mentions Hectic a lot more in general, outside of of scum pushing. Again, Child was mentioned in 3 posts. A control+f of hectic in HEM's iso has 27 results

[Prism]

Yo, T3, do you mind playing a bit of this game at all?

[Prism]

I am getting very frustrated by T3 playing every game but this one and am starting to consider policying him.

[Prism]

It has not just been today.

[MURDERCAT]

In my opinion, nothing has yet crossed the line in terms of discussing ongoing games, but let's keep it that way by not continuing to allude to them any further. Thanks!

[skitter30]

Fwiw i am someehat suspicous of t3

[Noraa]

If we are going to eliminate T3 today just to lim me tomorrow given worst case scenario, I'm going to say no to that because if anyone wants to lose the game for their team, its not me. I don't care if T3 loses the game for his team whether that be town or scum but I refuse to be the lim in lylo. So I'm either going today or I'm endgaming. I stand firmly by that. While I'd prefer to not have to be a mislim, I would rather anything than be the game losing mislim.