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[Smoke and Mirrors]

marcis town
like
always town
dont bother pushing her ill treat that as a scumclaim

I don’t see why Marci kills Distance here and it’s worrying me you won’t townlock her. You are the only one who isn’t and you’re the first one to point it out iirc?

[Something_Smart]

Oh nm, I misread this. If Distance is town and got a cop inno on Marci, he was clearly softing it. Did you not interpret it that way?

I mean, I was the first to point out that IF Distance had the cop, they were clearly softing an inno on marci. I certainly agree with that.

As I said before, I'm not willing to accept that Distance had the cop 100%, but I do agree that they're the most likely person to have had it. I do also agree that marci probably wouldn't kill her biggest cheerleader and I haven't forgotten that mastina also locked her as town and also died.

In fact, marci probably wasn't getting tracked by mastina, and it was public that mastina had won the tracker, so it makes a lot more sense for marci to carry out the kill on me and if Gamma gets tracked then it looks good for him.

[Something_Smart]

(Also, why does it worry you that I'm trying to do this my due diligence? If I were scum I could just go "yup marci is town let's kill ssbm and go home".)

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Maybe it wasn't clear that if I vote ssbm and then disappear for the rest of the day, that basically kills her, as long as marci also votes her and doesn't unvote. So if I were to put down a vote early in the day, I'd effectively be robbing you of any say at all in the decision.

Obviously the extension is the best of both worlds because now we can talk it through together. But if you are having doubts on my slot then you should put those to rest first because right now I can't tell if you're interrogating me or trying to work with me.

I’m town and I’m extremely confident Marci is as well, so it’s between you and Kyouku. I’m clearly trying to figure out which of you/Kyouku is scum because I was initially convinced on Kyouku!scum but now I’m having doubts obviously.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Oh nm, I misread this. If Distance is town and got a cop inno on Marci, he was clearly softing it. Did you not interpret it that way?

I mean, I was the first to point out that IF Distance had the cop, they were clearly softing an inno on marci. I certainly agree with that.

As I said before, I'm not willing to accept that Distance had the cop 100%, but I do agree that they're the most likely person to have had it. I do also agree that marci probably wouldn't kill her biggest cheerleader and I haven't forgotten that mastina also locked her as town and also died.

In fact, marci probably wasn't getting tracked by mastina, and it was public that mastina had won the tracker, so it makes a lot more sense for marci to carry out the kill on me and if Gamma gets tracked then it looks good for him.

But there obviously was no kill on you or you would have died instead of Mastina.

[Something_Smart]

Well yeah, my point is that it's further evidence in favor of marci being town.

But if you're really 100% convinced that she's town already, then I guess I'll take your word for it.

VOTE: ssbm

[Something_Smart]

And for me to be scum here would require me to do some really dumb things and get lucky. I'd have to be planning a swap with Gamma from very early on, with multiple auction detectives going on and no tangible benefit unless very specific things happen on D3 and D4.

If you're still not sure about me, this is the right track to look at. I can elaborate on this if need be, but for me to be scum would require me to do a lot of suboptimal and unnecessary things and also get lucky with the PR's.

And I mean, I would have no reason to fake a guilty on Gamma and complicate things when I could probably just fake one on ssbm and win.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Well yeah, my point is that it's further evidence in favor of marci being town.

But if you're really 100% convinced that she's town already, then I guess I'll take your word for it.

VOTE: ssbm

It’s not my word, I’m looking at the facts. No one ever claimed cop but Distance looked like he softed an inno on her.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

And for me to be scum here would require me to do some really dumb things and get lucky. I'd have to be planning a swap with Gamma from very early on, with multiple auction detectives going on and no tangible benefit unless very specific things happen on D3 and D4.

If you're still not sure about me, this is the right track to look at. I can elaborate on this if need be, but for me to be scum would require me to do a lot of suboptimal and unnecessary things and also get lucky with the PR's.

And I mean, I would have no reason to fake a guilty on Gamma and complicate things when I could probably just fake one on ssbm and win.

But the gulity on Gamma obviously wasn’t faked.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

And for me to be scum here would require me to do some really dumb things and get lucky. I'd have to be planning a swap with Gamma from very early on, with multiple auction detectives going on and no tangible benefit unless very specific things happen on D3 and D4.

If you're still not sure about me, this is the right track to look at. I can elaborate on this if need be, but for me to be scum would require me to do a lot of suboptimal and unnecessary things and also get lucky with the PR's.

And I mean, I would have no reason to fake a guilty on Gamma and complicate things when I could probably just fake one on ssbm and win.

But the gulity on Gamma obviously wasn’t faked.

I’m so confused right now.

VOTE: no elimination

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I also still need your full bidding history, it's suspicious you still haven't shared it

I have but not in one post. It’s all in our ISO.

D1, we bid 365 on cop, didn’t get it.
D2, bid 300 on AD, we got the one shot.
D3, bid the remaining 200 on one shot tracker.

That’s it because we ran out of money.

Okay thanks, I was wondering if there were any other bids on D1 or D2 that you made, but did not win. I did have all that info already.

Why did you bid 365 on Cop though? The mid-day was 125, so I thought maybe you made a bid on a second power for 135, and put the rest on Cop, but that doesn't seem to be the case. Surely you also saw Imaginality's D1 post about bidding at least 400 on roles so that scum cannot outbid us later if they do it now. What bugs me about 365 on cop is 2 things:

1. scum!S&M bidding 365 is left with 435 for later days. 435 is approximately what the rest of town would be bidding on powers if following town!Imaginality's strategy, so it is a good amount to be left with if you're scum.
2. The leading mid-day bid on 2-shot AD was 365. I'm not sure who placed that bid, but knowing that you later claimed to have made a 365 bid on D1 makes me wonder if it was actually you that was leading mid-day with 365, which would not be possible with 500 dogecoin, because you won 1-shot for 300.

So, is there any reasoning you had for bidding 365? How did you and pooky arrive at that number?

I have no idea, he just posted that in our hydra PT.

It’s not us and it’s obviously not Marci, so maybe no elim is optimal?

You know that Imaginality confirmed our one shot AD and now you also know we did track you. I was just really confused by Gypyx’s answer. I’m now clear you didn’t go anywhere.

Pooky just clarified for me on Discord that jk was only 1 shot, so she was probably killed for tracker and she was likely tracking either SS or Gamma based on her reads.

She locktowned me and Marci and wasn’t suspicious of you.

If Pooky does recall where 365 came from, let me know

I think scum will no kill, maybe they kill Marci, but I do think no elim is good for the day phase extension for rereads

And yes I know your AD and tracker results are real, but technically, like S_S, your claims could have been swapped with Gamma's. I dont think that's the case though - if you are scum, Gamma died with Hitman

I do agree on tracker reasoning on Mastina, though I think it didnt really matter. Regardless of her reads she would die because it's a known PR and it was likely there was no protective around to save her. I think as of the night she died, only town player that could have had doctor was Marci. Maybe that's why Marci was aimed at? Scum maybe thought 225+250 is close to 500, maybe marci won doc and didnt want to give it away by bidding 250 on GD?

[Something_Smart]

But the gulity on Gamma obviously wasn’t faked.

Well yeah, that's my point. If I were scum, it would be faked, and I wouldn't do that.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

But if you are having doubts on my slot then you should put those to rest first because right now I can't tell if you're interrogating me or trying to work with me

It has to be both in limlo, otherwise the decision is already made with Marci being clear >_>

Also regarding 1744, you didnt replace in late at all, it was early D2, and I dont like that you seem to be backtracking on cop!Distance/conftown!Marci

[ssbm_Kyouko]

And for me to be scum here would require me to do some really dumb things and get lucky. I'd have to be planning a swap with Gamma from very early on, with multiple auction detectives going on and no tangible benefit unless very specific things happen on D3 and D4.

It’s not us, I believe Distance did get an inno on Marci, so it’s either you or Kyouku but certain things aren’t making sense to me. Gamma’s no dummy. In what world does scum think watcher wouldn’t watch Mastina but he visits her regardless. And based on her reads, Mastina was very like tracking either you or Gamma. She was never going track me or Marci and she wasn’t sr Kyouku.

Scum!you shoots S_S actually I think... gotta reread mastina to be sure I'm not confusing your read on her with her read on you, but I think you're right about that

[Something_Smart]

Also regarding 1744, you didnt replace in late at all, it was early D2, and I dont like that you seem to be backtracking on cop!Distance/conftown!Marci

To claim that I backtracked is simply to misrepresent how I felt before... I always said it was a possibility, I never said it was a certainty.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Except for the fact that we have a winning 1 shot cop bid unaccounted for and calling a push on Marci a “scumclaim” is extremely strong just based upon a read and add to that, that he was the NK - I think it likely scum killed him thinking he had cop.

and

he makes Gamma look more likely town because many people were saying Kitty wagon was all town. Me and CB were the only ones I remember considering the Kitty wagon could have been a bus.

Pedit: I think it's weird to point it out as town if you don't put stock into it originally. I remember feeling on rereading you that it felt like you wanted to contribute something by pointing it out, but at the same time didnt want Marci absolutely cleared by it.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Oh nm, I misread this. If Distance is town and got a cop inno on Marci, he was clearly softing it. Did you not interpret it that way?

I mean, I was the first to point out that IF Distance had the cop, they were clearly softing an inno on marci. I certainly agree with that.

As I said before, I'm not willing to accept that Distance had the cop 100%, but I do agree that they're the most likely person to have had it. I do also agree that marci probably wouldn't kill her biggest cheerleader and I haven't forgotten that mastina also locked her as town and also died.

In fact, marci probably wasn't getting tracked by mastina, and it was public that mastina had won the tracker, so it makes a lot more sense for marci to carry out the kill on me and if Gamma gets tracked then it looks good for him.

Numbers say unless S&M is scum that won both ADs that cop was in Distance, Flea, CB, iirc. I can double check my notes in the morning. At this point I think Cyrus won 2-shot AD the day he was limmed, or CB won it and then flaked

[Something_Smart]

Pedit: I think it's weird to point it out as town if you don't put stock into it originally. I remember feeling on rereading you that it felt like you wanted to contribute something by pointing it out, but at the same time didnt want Marci absolutely cleared by it.

You don't remember the context under which I brought it up? We were talking about marci gravedigging Distance, so it was a highly relevant conditional. I always put 100% stock into the statement "If Distance had the cop, then they had an inno on marci" but there was no reason then to believe that Distance had the cop.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Actually I feel quite strongly that scum bought 2-shot AD and as I wrote it out, only mastina and marci can afford that.

I'll let you in on a secret: the $200 mid-day bid on tracker?

That's me.

I spent less than 301 on the jailkeep yesterday so I have at least 200 available today. I spent more than 200 but less than 301 so have at least 200 left, somewhere in the range of 201-299.

Reading mastina now to check her reads, but this post here tells me that scum tried to outbid mastina on tracker using 300 because they believed all she had was 299. Scum could have obscured tracker if they had the money to spend a lot on it to guarantee it. Imo gamma had watcher and 300 left and S_S had 499 in GF already and needed to have the 301 left for the plan to frame Gamma as having Hitman.

Imagine this: Gamma buys Watcher, just to takeaway from town, maybe to claim towncred with it later. But then they find out that Imaginality has and has holstered roleblocker. Suddenly, it becomes a viable option to swap claims on us and fake the inno on yourself by secretly acquiring hitman and getting roleblocked. Scum wanted us to think Gamma won Hitman. If S_S is scum, we didnt need to know that, as S_S was going to guilty his partner anyways. If S&M was scum, they could have killed watcher!S_S and likely not gotten tracked by mastina.

Idk if the timeline is right as I dont remember when Imaginality claimed to still have a holstered shot - I know it came out on D3 that he had won roleblocker.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also ftr I read some of Marci's old games that Distance claims he read, and I think his read on her was forged. I draw the opposite conclusion he did by reading, so I think it was just an excuse to inno her because he got the cop inno and maybe expected to die, or wanted to crumb early so he could claim with a crumb in xlo situation. Or have a crumb to cc with if scum tried to fakeclaim cop in late game.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also the only other town player that spent all their nuggies in one place was VFP and possibly Distance, and publicly buying Ninja is a huge takeaway from scum, because it makes Tracker and Watcher infallible. I think 500 on watcher was done to look town, but that most of town didnt want to blow their load in one place. Just look at the auction history that we know of. Scum still has 300 more to use on a scum power in secret later on though.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So they dont mind using everything, but town spends over 400 and tries to save scraps for another power later on down the line

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I don’t have the kinds of interactions with a buddy that I had with Kitty. I don’t understand how anyone in the playerlist reading those interactions could possibly think they’re SvS.

I mean, yes, that too--it's not just the Pooky half the townread comes from. You're very obviously town by play here, too, Nancy, but in my opinion a 100% guaranteed to be accurate to the point of being a borderline trust tell (it's technically not one but is very close to being one with how damn strong a tell it is) for Pooky's meta is better, harder evidence of your slot being town than you being town.

But yes, it's both heads being town for separate reasons, rather than just one.

If she were lost or had little input, why are so many slots conftown to her?

Again, the two are not mutually exclusive as you have said them to be.

Why would she focus on a scumread that is already universally suspected (VFP) without really being in contact with VFP to deduce an alignment directly?

I'll be blunt.

I didn't read the end of D1.

I didn't even look at the end of D1 wagon aside from seeing the four votes on scum--I legit didn't know there were votes on VFP at all until well after D2 had started and people asked me about VFP vs the scum.

I had zero awareness of VFP suspicion.

I also didn't give a damn.

Because I have my own, individually generated, separate, reasons for believing VFP is scum, generated from basic premises and the logical conclusions to be reached from them.

The D1 wagon on scum went through with only four votes. That makes the players on the wagon much much much less likely to be scum. There's ways for the players on the wagon to be scum--intent to distance not realizing plurality blitz deadlines mean the distancing was lethal (first two votes), or deliberately deciding to bus for the towncred (last two votes). But more likely is just that the votes were town.

Mistyx is both a player whose contributions looked town to me, and whose replacement has also looked town to me, and whose slot has overall been highly town, with the players townreading the slot also being ones I by and large trust, with them townreading the slot for reasons either similar to mine or different but positively augmenting mine. Even were I to doubt my own read there, trusting their reads makes me trust them to be town.

ssbm is similarly a player whose contributions look town to me, their mechanical choice N1 was incredibly pro-town, and who others have thought to be town for fairly good, compelling reasons.

While I know that objectively I fit the profile for scum fairly well (I would consider Flea a threat and could make that kill N1; I did not realize this game had plurality and didn't remember it was a blitz game; I wasn't on the D1 scum wagon), I obviously know that I am town and that in spite of the objective reasons it could be me, know that it isn't me.

Which limits the pool down to, per cyrus's death, three names: {VFP, Cupcake Butterfly, marcistar}.

In those three names, VFP seems by far the most likely to be scum just by gamestate and by the N1 kill on Flea.

Given marcistar doesn't look like scum and that you do, that leads to the conclusion of VFP + Cupcake Butterfly.

Hot take: Smoke and Mirrors vs ssbm is tvt.

Doesn't seem like an especially hot take to me, but why?

Well Smoke and Mirrors is clearly town here because this is transparently Nancy's towngame through and through. It's painfully obviously Nancy's town meta, with every marker which that entails, beyond her ability to fake it as scum. Even were she having the scum performance of her life, I meant it when I said that the fact that the slot was voting scum on D1 and contains Pooky means that the slot is 100% guaranteed locktown. It IS literally a nearly 20-year-old tell for Pooky that is borderline trust tell. Pooky's relative absence from the game be damned, he's not letting a tell that old randomly be broken. He's not flaked from the hydra altogether, per Nancy and also per common sense. (If Pooky

were

100% completely and entirely out of the game I would expect Nancy to replace in solo or replace her hydra with a different hydra to get a different partner.)

ssbm is also someone there's a lot of reasons for me to think is town, but beyond those, ssbm vs Smoke+Mirrors just has literally every single classical marker of a TvT fight. It screams, bleeds, TvT to its very core at every stage.

He's town is why. He was the alternative to Kitty.

Why can't the two top wagons be S/S?

My thoughts exactly. There's nothing in how the game has played out which says that VFP was a scumdriven counterwagon to the towndriven wagon on scum. And for that matter, nothing but paranoia about VFP's L-1 wagon on D2 having scum there, when multiple members of the VFP wagon on D2 are town with a high degree of certainty. cyrus? Flipped town. Distance? Flipped town. Smoke and Mirrors? 100% conftown to me. me? Also conftown to me. marcistar? Highly highly likely to be town.

The L-1 wagon on VFP was in fact in high probablity? All town

.

The only possible scum there is marcistar who Distance, the nightkill, hard-vouched as being town, a read I am inclined to sheep.

I realize that others don't have the advantage of conftowning me so that objectively I could be scum on the VFP wagon--but from my point of view the wagon is as close to confirmed all-town as it can be without being confirmed as all town.

So yeah, mastina was hard hard locktowning S&M... I think if S&M and Gamma were scum, S&M would have just killed S_S and tried to mislim me in 6 player limlo. S_S fits with my.theory that scum coasted on the outskirts of 2 TvTs this game, and I expected town!S_S to vote S&M or no elim after reading our D6, but certainly not me. It feels the same as the Gamma votes on me - that they dont have their own case and is piggybacking off of TvT me vs S&M.

I'll stay on no lim for now so no shenanigans happen with tiebreakers, but my mind is made up I think. If Marci and S&M agree now, I'm down to vote him before deadline, otherwise we can continue discussion tomorrow.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think it's a coincidence that 365 appeared in 2 places, but I believe it because 365 is the number of days in a year, a number ingrained in everyone's head. I have had this opinion from the moment I noticed 365, but didnt want to hand scum!S&M the out

[Something_Smart]

I expected town!S_S to vote S&M or no elim after reading our D6, but certainly not me.

I've been calling S&M hard town all game. Why would you expect me to change my mind now?