Mini Normal 2223 | Town Wins!

[Dwlee99]

I wasn't townreading DGB.

[Dwlee99]

I'm not doing this BS where you just brush over one part of your case that doesn't match up and come up with something new. It's exactly what Chaos did and if I didn't just push a mislim through in that game I'd be sure you're scum for this

[ssbm_Kyouko]

You're being deliberately avoidant because the more you engage with me the more you're slipping up. I still want to know what makes you think Salsa and Marci are not teamed, as your reasoning for PoEing to N_M is partially contingent on them not being teamed, at least that's what you've said. When pressed on it you say vibes dont match and when pressed on that it appears you're not actually talking about nebulous vibes, but something more concrete, which is partner equity. What about their posting indicates to you they cannot be partnered?

[Dwlee99]

Vibes don't match clearly meant teammate vibes, and no, vibes can't be quantified. They just don't seem to both be evil.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Individual reads:

Me
(for math)
Conftown people

Math/Kyo

Salsa/Marci

NM

Together reads: my gut is telling me NM + a deep wolf, but obviously this doesn't match with the individual reads in a quantifiable way. Might be as simple as NM + one of Marci/salsa.

I don't really think that Marci and salsa are scum together though? Based on what I've seen?

Individual reads indicate Salsa and Marci in the same tier as scumreads above N_M. Together reads says Marci and Salsa are no scum together, Based on

what Dwlee has seen

.

Unless deepwolf I feel okay about Kyo and Mathblade. My vibe tells me salsa and Marci aren't both scum at the very least.

That leaves you

This is the reason that N_M goes down to the bottom of the readslist - because Salsa and Marci are not scum together. It's not a good reason, so I questioned Dwlee about his reasoning, and he's dancing around giving a concrete reason to why they are not scum together. Just "vibes", but below we will see what "vibes" means in context.

Green is my inserts into the below

Why are Marci and Salsa not scum together? I thought you just pointed out at the start of this Day it makes sense for them to be scum together because when Salsa suspected either you or Marci she voted you?

There's some credibility to it, sure, but I don't really buy it. Vibes don't match

This is where he brings up Vibes. I quote reply to this post and ask if N_M's vibes match with anyone. It is clear we are talking about the same "vibes" from above

Do N_M's vibes match with anyone?

Given that he has hardly posted? Yea. I could see him teamed with you, Marci, or Salsa.

Dwlee says "yea", implying that the same type of vibes that make Marci and Salsa not teamed, are present between N_M and {myself, Marci, and Salsa}, because any of us can be his partner in Dwlee's eyes. "Vibes" can be translated to teammate equity here, and if we're talking about the same vibes as he was originally saying make Salsa and Marci unlikely partners, he's talking about negative equity. This is what I point out in the next reply.

So by "Vibes don't match", you aren't even talking about vibes... you're talking about teammate equity. That is something that can be quantified. Show me, with evidence, the posts that indicate negative equity between salsa and marci.

Kyo if you're gonna call me scummy for using a word/phrase that perfectly describes how you said I meta townread DGB, I don't care to have this conversation.

Titus did literally no solving. That is why she was my priority at that point in the game. I found DGB scummy only in a meta sense, and that is why I didn't vote there.

Vibes don't match clearly meant teammate vibes, and no, vibes can't be quantified

. They just don't seem to both be evil.

Now he is saying it meant teammate vibes which is somehow different from teammate equity in his eyes? And refusing to quantify what is negative equity between because they're just teammate "vibes", not teammate "equity" (which are clearly, in context of 1783, the same thing). Then he says "they just don't both seem to be evil." This isn't even on the topic of teammate equity anymore, as he doesn't mention "evil together." So now he's slipping he doesn't SR one of them, imo, which is not in line with either the reads he posted earlier today, or the reasoning for voting N_M.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

^so Dwlee has seen [something] that indicates they are not teamed, but they're "just vibes", and he can't point to anything specific. Sounds similar to his stances around DGB on D1. Nothing specific can be pointed to. He's just making up convenient reads to fit his wincon in this game

[Dwlee99]

When you said match I thought you meant does it seem like he has teammate vibes with anyone else. That's different from how Marci and Salsa I think have not teammate vibes. I don't know what you're trying to do here pointing out I don't have a "good" reason to think they're not teamed. I just don't.

And in your last paragraph, you say I'm slipping into not scumreading one of them... How is that not in line with what I've already said? My individual reads list has salsa and Marci on the same tier. The only person below them is NM. Unless you think I think there's only one scum left?

Restated, I've said I think one of them in town. In fact, my gut tells me you're a deepwolf and that neither of them are evil. I want a NM flip though.

[MathBlade]

So no, I haven’t read all the wordy words because 10 minute break but this is where my thought is at

Kyo + Salsa are pretty much gunning for Dwlee.
So if we elim not mafia and town or scum since Not mafia isn’t really being talked about in context of not mafia I don’t see that changing.

So Nm town flip a conf Townie dies
Then tomorrow we are either in MELO with two players set on Dwlee or we are in double elim two players set on Dwlee

I know it’s probably somewhere but what are your current reads Dwlee?

[Dwlee99]

Like, if I was scum, I'd just pull up their ISOs, point to some interaction, and say I think they aren't aligned. My vibe read is more of a game state read than it is a specific player read.

[Dwlee99]

@Math

Conftown people

Math

Salsa/Marci/Kyo

NM

But I am admittedly inclined to scumread anyone who pushes me so maybe I'm letting that color my read of Kyo here. I just find this push ridiculous. How many ways can you misinterpret and twist my words? And again, the only reason I'm not more sure is because a town player did this to me in 233.

[MathBlade]

So from your POV best case scenario NM is elimmed flips scum (I am not going to consider NM town here because the next question means we lose)

Then assume you are elimmed

Then me 1 conf town and kyo/salsa/Marci left.

Assume conf town dead and then the scum in that three kill in kyo/salsa/Marci as I am incredibly easy to buddy as evidenced by the townreads.

What do you think elo looks like and who kills whom?

And saying scum kill me is not an option. You’re not allowed to change the parameters of the hypothetical I am hunting this for a reason

[Dwlee99]

Okay so it's final 4 of you, Kyo, salsa, Marci. Then there's a no lim and you're off limits to kill for some reason.

I think Kyo would kill Marci because she could paint Salsa as DGB/NM's teammate pretty easily due to the lack of focus that I think Salsa has shown in sorting those slots.

I think Salsa would kill Kyo because Marci is an easier flip. But maybe she WIFOMs it and kills Marci now that I'm saying this.

I think Marci would kill Kyo for the same reasons Kyo would kill Marci. Salsa seems like an easy flip here.

That's what I think in that scenario, but I think you would be night killed if this actually played out because it gives way less info as to who is scum and keeps two townies able to be eliminated.

[MathBlade]

Okay so it's final 4 of you, Kyo, salsa, Marci. Then there's a no lim and you're off limits to kill for some reason.

I think Kyo would kill Marci because she could paint Salsa as DGB/NM's teammate pretty easily due to the lack of focus that I think Salsa has shown in sorting those slots.

I think Salsa would kill Kyo because Marci is an easier flip. But maybe she WIFOMs it and kills Marci now that I'm saying this.

I think Marci would kill Kyo for the same reasons Kyo would kill Marci. Salsa seems like an easy flip here.

That's what I think in that scenario, but I think you would be night killed if this actually played out because it gives way less info as to who is scum and keeps two townies able to be eliminated.

If I am right on who scum is this is exactly what will play out but I don’t want to tip my hand here. Because scum will change their play.

I might have said too much as it is.

Or it’s just you and Not Mafia and GG. Lol

[Dwlee99]

I don't want to die tyvm

[MathBlade]

Why not? If you die and town wins who cares?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So from your POV best case scenario NM is elimmed flips scum (I am not going to consider NM town here because the next question means we lose)

Then assume you are elimmed

Then me 1 conf town and kyo/salsa/Marci left.

Assume conf town dead and then the scum in that three kill in kyo/salsa/Marci as I am incredibly easy to buddy as evidenced by the townreads.

What do you think elo looks like and who kills whom?

And saying scum kill me is not an option. You’re not allowed to change the parameters of the hypothetical I am hunting this for a reason

You're counting down wrong.
In this hypothetical, after N_M flips scum, 1 conftown dies.
Then dwlee is eliminated the next day - and 1 more conftown dies.

There is no question of who is nightkilled unless you're assuming scum is not going to kill the conftowns b2b. In this scenario, MELO is me, you, salsa, and Marci.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Okay so it's final 4 of you, Kyo, salsa, Marci. Then there's a no lim and you're off limits to kill for some reason.

I think Kyo would kill Marci because she could paint Salsa as DGB/NM's teammate pretty easily due to the lack of focus that I think Salsa has shown in sorting those slots.

I think Salsa would kill Kyo because Marci is an easier flip. But maybe she WIFOMs it and kills Marci now that I'm saying this.

I think Marci would kill Kyo for the same reasons Kyo would kill Marci. Salsa seems like an easy flip here.

That's what I think in that scenario, but I think you would be night killed if this actually played out because it gives way less info as to who is scum and keeps two townies able to be eliminated.

This is the final 4 after the second conftown is killed, so the day phase of D5 is 4player MELO of Math, Me, Salsa, and Marci. There is no additional NK before this final 4

[MathBlade]

So from your POV best case scenario NM is elimmed flips scum (I am not going to consider NM town here because the next question means we lose)

Then assume you are elimmed

Then me 1 conf town and kyo/salsa/Marci left.

Assume conf town dead and then the scum in that three kill in kyo/salsa/Marci as I am incredibly easy to buddy as evidenced by the townreads.

What do you think elo looks like and who kills whom?

And saying scum kill me is not an option. You’re not allowed to change the parameters of the hypothetical I am hunting this for a reason

You're counting down wrong.
In this hypothetical, after N_M flips scum, 1 conftown dies.
Then dwlee is eliminated the next day - and 1 more conftown dies.

There is no question of who is nightkilled unless you're assuming scum is not going to kill the conftowns b2b. In this scenario, MELO is me, you, salsa, and Marci.

Proper procedure is a no elim at some point.

So another kill is needed unless everyone just agrees I would die then we just have it out at 4

[Dwlee99]

Why not? If you die and town wins who cares?

It's a waste of an elimination

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think the most likely pair is Dwlee,Salsa as I read Marci in ISO and feel that the points made against her DGB vote by me were actually wrong. My point looked at a couple of specific interactions with Roden, but in ISO the thought process on DGB/Looker is consistent. While those posts on their own looked like poor reasons, there are other explanations that look believable to me.

I see a lot of reasons for why Dwlee is scum, I see reasons why Marci is not partnered with Dwlee, I believe town!Marci is capable of hammering accidentally, and I see individual reasons for Salsa to be scum with the AtE and self-voting during DGB's wagon. I also see the N_M softs as scummy, but take those away and I'm left with one post I TRed him for, so it's hard to say he is scum with Dwlee over Salsa with Dwlee, because individually Salsa is scummier and she has been distancing with Dwlee today.

Unless a non-Dwlee vigilante exists, in which case a scum protective makes sense, and I would lim N_M first in this situation.

Pedit: We could try no elim but I feel like scum just no kills? There is no investigative to flush them out if they delay, so I would think scum would prefer to be in MELO than ELO so there are more suspects?

I always feel this though and it seems like scum always kill in this situation so idk. It just seems suboptimal.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So if geraint or Manatee are sold on Marci or Mathblade, let me know your case, because I feel like Dwlee>Salsa>N_M wins the game

[MathBlade]

Why not? If you die and town wins who cares?

It's a waste of an elimination

Not to me it’s not.

I think it’s likely because no one is defending Not Mafia he flips scum.

We elim you, either the game is over or we go to 4P elo.

At this point we decide to no elim or just play it out.

I think this gives us the best chance at winning. I think Dwlee is town here but I am not confident enough to stake the game on it but I think this is what we do.

[Dwlee99]

You're staking the game on at least two people being town.

[Dwlee99]

I think NM > Salsa > Kyo wins right now (assuming NM flips scum)

[Dwlee99]

When I wrote the "who people would kill" post I think salsa has a decent chance of being teamed with NM.