mini theme 2229: MBOS 13 schweppes' pulpy potions daya 5

[NorwegianboyEE]

Or maybe Bingle said something intentionally scummy so he could become the 1st elimination to set up his teammates to win and get rid of an negative utility role.

:bigbrain:

[Fairy Circle]

Maths is not my strong suit. Neither is English apparently.

Mafia are aware of who to target, their pool is 8, I will not discuss scum tactics here.
Each one of us are only aware of ourselves. Our pool is 10.

2 people need to successfully target any one person to obtain a kill.

Town still has 1-in-10 (2:20) of hitting that kill in a single night. Over two nights it's a lot greater chance of hitting the kill and cannot be estimated without long calculations which frankly I do not have the time nor patience for.

I suspect there will be as much town invoked death as scum invoked. Greatest difficulty in this game is that NKA cannot feasibly happen.

-Malefleacent.

[Fairy Circle]

Correction, any 2 two have 1-in-10 approximately of killing tonight.
I will not detail due to scum considerations.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Help, i'm being assaulted by numbers and mechanics talk.

[The Limit Does Not Exist]

I have read it and I still think that Bingle is scumclaiming for a very specific reason that I shall not elaborate on until Bingle elaborates on the details of his role PM.

Again, i'm not wanting to share the info yet. But i feel like Bingle said something that's very ++scum.

This is getting out of hand. Now there are two of them!

-S

[NorwegianboyEE]

Divide and Conquer!Bingle still triggers me.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I keep refreshing the page looking for new content to engage with now that i'm finished with work but nothing is happening.

[The Limit Does Not Exist]

I'm still tapping my foot waiting for people to explain what the hell they have against Bingle.

But I'm sure we could find something to talk about.

-S

[Titus]

Need today off all games. Mental health.

[Fairy Circle]

Much love titus <3

Norwee, perhaps you may give me a brief overview of what the hell I just read from your side of things?

-Malefleacent

[NorwegianboyEE]

Norwee, perhaps you may give me a brief overview of what the hell I just read from your side of things?

What do you mean? I've solved Datisi's hydra slot as likely town, and also the S_S hydra.
My main suspicions right now are on Bingle and i'm nullscum on Titus.
I've kinda liked Emperor one second and thought they was scummy the next but overall i get the impression they are most likely town. I also feel like they've put a lot of effort into solving the game and i liked their analyzis of me and Datisi's shitfight earlier.

[Fairy Circle]

Could you elaborate on Bingle and Titus? I haven't really felt strongly either way on Bingle, but I do quite like Titus thus far.

-Malefleacent

[Green Cap Boys]

Sometimes it easier to ask forgiveness than permission.
I will do neither.


8 town, 3 mafia.

Approximately 11 pain potions.
Mafia have additional 1.2 pain potions approximately, giving them an average of 4 pain potions. This could be more, this could be less. This accounts for 2 kills over 4 days.

That is a total of 12-13 HP damage assuming that each potion deals a single point of damage.
11 players, that will create approximately 6 kills in this game assuming all pain potions are able to be used.

As learned from Yggdrasil, town can and will use their abilities and will not hold them.
As learned from Yggdrasil, mafia do not have the option of an outright kill, forcing them to use their potions.
I will not say what I consider their optimal potion play to be. I don't want to give them ideas.

As for optimal day play, they are required to absolutely stir the pot more than the King and Queen did when they invited the other courts, but not myself to their little celebration.

-Malefleacent.

Okay, that helps. I think this is

probably

an explanation that comes from town. Had a gut lean that way from the momrangal posts but I think the response here solidifies that.


I had put basically 0 care into actually looking at the potential number of pain potions available to scum, I had been considering a worst case scenario of 3 scum kills by night 2 but the probability for that even being possible after setup generation is small-ish

Still, hero shots as town are almost always going to be bad here. That was the subject I had wanted to get into earlier but didn't want to drag things down into mechanics right away. People shooting at their own whim is unlikely to produce a flip (which is at least usable information), but is likely to produce an extra target for scum to kill on subsequent nights.

That was why Bingle's 105 bothered me, there was clearly an idea here of how to play around pain potion usage but he left it as an unfinished shower thought and moved on without exploring it any further. It had a hint of possibly not wanting to go too in-depth because he knows it's more favorable for scum if he doesn't outline a real strategy and lets people do dumb things and fling around pain potions wildly.

-R

[Green Cap Boys]

Could you elaborate on Bingle and Titus? I haven't really felt strongly either way on Bingle, but I do quite like Titus thus far.

-Malefleacent

...why do you like

Titus

?

[NorwegianboyEE]

I just went from 100 to feeling dead tired and yawning a lot...

[NorwegianboyEE]

Could you elaborate on Bingle and Titus? I haven't really felt strongly either way on Bingle, but I do quite like Titus thus far.

-Malefleacent

No i don’t want to elaborate on Bingle yet.
Titus, just really meh so far.
Also what do you make of them saying you need votes? They don’t seem to underline much of any of their votes so far with much reasoning.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Dwlee why won’t you be more active.

I’m expecting an report on my desk by five that outlines every scum in the game with solid reasoning.

[Green Cap Boys]

So, anyway, my thoughts on the acceptable strategy for Pain potion usage is that we should have a vig pool of at most 2 names for people to shoot at.

This has the benefit of:

1. Concentrating town's firepower such that it's actually possible to flip a suspect. It doesn't matter if scum chooses to shoot there because it's on town, it's still a town-directed kill and is clearing out someone who otherwise would have been an elimination candidate.
2. It makes it scarier for scum to shoot in people outside the pool - in addition to the possibility of having a shot blocked by a doctor/jailkeeper potion, any result from a harmography potion is a hard guilty - they cannot get away with an excuse of "Oh I used my pain on [insert obvtown player here] because I scumread them"

If people want no vig shots at all, I think that's also an acceptable strategy, I just flat-out Do Not Want people shooting on a whim because that is likely to end badly and affords scum too much in the way of wiggle room

-R

[Dwlee99]

No

@norwee

[Dwlee99]

I will be shooting who I want to

[Bingle]

Maths is not my strong suit. Neither is English apparently.

Mafia are aware of who to target, their pool is 8, I will not discuss scum tactics here.
Each one of us are only aware of ourselves. Our pool is 10.

2 people need to successfully target any one person to obtain a kill.

Town still has 1-in-10 (2:20) of hitting that kill in a single night. Over two nights it's a lot greater chance of hitting the kill and cannot be estimated without long calculations which frankly I do not have the time nor patience for.

I suspect there will be as much town invoked death as scum invoked. Greatest difficulty in this game is that NKA cannot feasibly happen.

-Malefleacent.

Not only is this math completely wrong, it’s also completely irrelevant.

We need to either mass holster like we should have done in Ygg or turn the pain potions mechanic into additional eliminations, like we did after morph was confirmed.

[Green Cap Boys]

I will be shooting who I want to

This is >rand town, unfortunately, but does dovetail nicely with the inclination I had toward "bored town".

-R

[NorwegianboyEE]

Bingle turning to talk about only mech to appear solvy?

[Bingle]

2 names for people to shoot at.

These names should be leashed. First five can shoot at one, second five can shoot at the other. Additional benefit of mafia risking having to justify why they didn’t shoot.

[Bingle]

Bingle turning to talk about only mech to appear solvy?

No? I never do mech to appear solvey. I do mech because it’s a universal trait of my games. Anyone townreading me on protown mech who has played with me even once is a dumbass.