mini theme 2229: MBOS 13 schweppes' pulpy potions daya 5

[Dwlee99]

Everyone should claim pain potions cause I'm sitting on info

[Dwlee99]

I'll share once everyone claims their target

[Bingle]

I don't trust pain potions to serve as guaranteed eliminations here given that:
-Scum players can lie about having pain potion'd a player and thus a player we think we could kill, could end up surviving
-Scum players can, if they have them, doctor/jailkeep players and thus negate pain potions on them and thus a player we think we could kill, could end up surviving
-Town players can be roleblocked by a jailkeeper and thus a player we think we could kill, could end up surviving
-There are multiple players that are good eliminations who have been pain potioned; we can't remove all of them from the elimination pool just because all of them have been targeted by a pain potion.

Oh, you mean Bingle was right and pain potions are negative utility that should not have been used N1? Cool.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Look at the resistance bingle got

Yup. Resistance. Like when I hit E-1 because mastina said I scumclaimed and then didn’t explain why for literally days. You know, the scum claim that literally no one but mastina thinks was a scum claim. Like the continued unwillingness to eliminate me on the basis of “he’s too town to be town” that everyone clearly sees. Like dwlee calling out something he thinks is a town slip from me and then immediately blindsheeping mastina to vote me.

But there was absolutely no resistance when a wagon sprang up on you, despite the sun total of your first five days of thread contribution being “Momcinda has these reads but she’s also unavailable and I can’t explain her reads.” That’s why we ended yesterday with a plurality lim on Titus.

Ok Bingle is town.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Idk maybe I'm fourth scumming here cause I also pushed Titus but I feel like RCE is a good lim here probably.

VOTE: RCEnigma

[NorwegianboyEE]

Hear me out on this one.
It's a bit tinfoily but i seriously think it's good.

Ok so yesterday was Town!Titus shitting up the thread and me shitting on them in return. I now know this 100% to be the case.

So RCE posts this:

I don't remember norwee being toxic before I left Ms. This must be the darkest timeline.

This seems to be an mindset of RCE knowing the alignment of both me and Titus. Because he thinks i'm being toxic. This is an stance i typically see from scum when two town are tunneling. Scum wants to take the middle ground and look reasonable and also chastise the slots that are being "toxic" instead of taking an actual stance.
If he really though me and Titus was TvT yesterday why didn't he do something to stop the tunneling? Instead of doing something to solve the game he was just doing this and letting everything take it's course. Which is an scum mindset.

i guess there is a third line where Scum!Titus goes this hard on town as an anti associative link for the wifom but that feels super low yield and it has already stretched far too long to make it like a fallback fingers crossed option.

Here you can see RCE just keeping the current momentum going despite having an official stance of voting Fairy and "thinking Titus is likely town"

only time ive ever been scum with Titus was Boon Wars I think. Well I was informed traitor and Titus shot me n1...which is as good a buss as you can get I think.

This is also subtly encouraging and Titus wagon by lightly scumreading them despite the contradictory "Norwegian is being toxic" stance earlier that suggests he knows me and Titus town.

[NorwegianboyEE]

RCE was "townreading" Titus. But not in reality and he felt just fine seeing an Titus wagon go through. Which fits my image of how scum would play in yesterdays atmosphere.

[NorwegianboyEE]

This makes me trust Dwlee more for treating Titus like how i'd expect town too. Where Titus blatantly lied and looked very scummy despite being town. But town wouldn't know they was town, however scum would.
So scum was being a lot more malicious and creepy yesterday like RCE. While town like Dwlee just acted with justice and righteousness and smited Titus to oblivion with no regrets.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Limit probably scum too. Not sure about third yet but i'll think about it.

[NorwegianboyEE]

It could maybe be T3. Titus could be right about least 1 scum in their solve.
If i remove Dwlee from the PoE that seems to be the natural next conclusion, unless if i were to reconcider Mastina or something. But that seems very unlikely.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I've given Fairy Circle a fair thought and their hydra dissonance seems pretty genuine so i wanna lift them to like, light townread. So that leaves: RCE/Limit/T3 for the solve?
If i'm wrong about someone it could be Fairy Circle and they were the towndriven wagon yesterday. But something tells me this was more likely TvT competing wagons and scum either chose and picked between two whatever wagons or stayed out alltogether.

Titus (4): Dwlee99, Fairy Circle, NorwegianboyEE, Green Cap Boys
Fairy Circle (3): RCEnigma, mastina, Bingle
The Limit Does Not Exist (1): The Emperor
T3 (1): Titus

not voting (2): The Limit Does Not Exist, T3

So maybe all 3 scum had competing opinions to distance? T3 chose to scumread Titus, RCE chose to scumread Fairy Circle, Limit chose to vote nobody.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I feel like RCE is an better vote today than Bingle.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Another note of curiousity that's impacting my current reads. Why was the Lillith head in the Limit hydra townreading me early day 1? Lillith is a slot that has scumread town!me in every single game i've played with them and seemed really adamant about not trusting me too.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Yet here they just quickly townread me with no hassle whatsoever. I find it odd.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Think that's all that was on my mind.

[mastina]

Point is, she dug her own grave.

For the record, blaming the town that you played a large part in eliminating for being the sole cause of their elimination is fucking disgusting and all of you doing this (it's not just you, T3; Norwee and Dwlee ALSO did it) should be ashamed. YOU fucked up by not reading her right. Is Titus blameless? No. She, objectively, made some bad plays, with her reads, reasons, and roleclaim, and that mishandling of things means she wasn't above reproach altogether. But she wasn't unreadable and she wasn't posting as scum by virtue of her having flipped town so taking zero accountability for it and blaming her exclusively for it is fucking disgusting.

But, while I have very strong feelings on this, I acknowledge this is neither the time nor place for it beyond this post; it doesn't do any good and could actually do harm by making more toxicity, even this much is a risk towards toxicity increasing so I really shouldn't say more, but I couldn't in good faith say nothing at all.

I threw down a bingle vote when I came back, we even threw him a potion at night. What dp you think pf that

I'll tell you if I am alive on D3. (If you/Mom are really REALLY smart between you two you might be able to figure it out on your own but if you can't, wait until D3.)

I feel like the biggest thing on lilith is lack of presence

It's more than lack of presence.

I haven't read most (any) of the long posts. I won't have time to catch up fully until next week probably

Oh? Then why did you put so much time/effort into reading MY long posts on Bingle all of a sudden?

Could it be because you felt the need to protect him?

It's what they've done while present. For a player who had said they hadn't read the long posts, TLDNE seemed strangely knowledgeable about my push on Bingle and had a lot to say there, showing them to be weirdly informed on the subject beyond what they said.

Beyond that,

Mastina, sell me on LimitScum.

Don't really need to. It's mostly POE. I have townreads on most players in the game. I don't have a townread on TheLimitDoesNotExist. This, in spite of both heads being heads that I would expect to be able to generate townreads on. They're too reserved, too passive, too not-making-wavesey. They're doing basically nothing, and certainly nothing which looks town.

Does that make them lockscum? Where an absence of doing much of anything makes them be definitely scum? No, not on its own. But when you combine it with a combination of expecting them to radiate town + everyone else looking town + their defense of slots I am suspicious of + their lackluster content + other players I'd expect to be able to read them not having lock-solid townreads on them (basically, I would expect other players who're town to be able to locktown them if they were town and yet as far as I can tell that hasn't happened) all adds up to a lean scum read.

I have townreads on most players to reasonable strengths--TLDNE is not among them. While POE is not damning on its own in of itself, there's also the fact that in the entirety of their content, there is nothing that I can townread. Something_Smart is a slot that I would expect to be able to get a read on one way or another but his lack of content here makes it basically impossible to get a read on him one way or another, which is a red flag.

lilith is not a slot that I know much about, lacking much history there but for some reason I seem to recall hearing that lilith is very very easily obvtown when she is town, that she has a very easy time displaying herself to be town, and that is utterly absent from this game. Both to me, and largely, to others who can read her.

While being busy with other stuff can be understandable, it's not what they're not doing which bothers me; it's what they're doing when they're around. Which is to say, a lot of this:

but if you wanna go that route, fine. you feel flat as fuck and for someone who's supposed to be very easy to obvtown, it's a horrible look. i don't care you had the other game where you were in f3. i don't care about who has more or fewer posts, when most of your posts were either screaming at mastina, throwing a fit at anyone looking at you for acting scummy, or s_s throwing out unmemorable comments. the way that you're latching onto things like this and spewing ate while not actually offering content to solve looks bad.

but you're free to actually offer some content and lay out how this is apparently not all that different from us last game.

The little content they HAVE shown DOES have a huge amount of focus in areas that simply put: don't look like town areas for them to have focused on. There's very little in the way of gamesolving or trying to further the gamestate. There's a decent amount of defense of Bingle, which is mutual, as Bingle has also been defending TLDNE somewhat.

It's a bunch of things adding up.
POE and them being outside of it.
A lack of them looking town at all.
The content they post being lackluster when it is posted.
The content they post focusing on areas that don't look like areas town would focus on.
Associatives with Bingle.

Nothing on its own is damning, but it adds up to a pretty damn high likelihood that they're just scum.

No kill tonight makes me think scum either has low pain potions

Hmm, I wonder which slot claimed to have no potions?
Could the slot having claimed that, perhaps, have been scum?

Food for thought.

Why would scum not target Mastina?

Well scum didn't target GCP the second most obvtown player behind myself so the question isn't why did scum not target me but rather "why did scum not target the towniest most likely to be watched/protected slots in the game", and the answer to that I think can be found here:

Scum should not actually kill a player tonight

. Arsonist >> Goon. It's a pretty trivial understanding, but putting their shots into three separate players is better for scum because it denies us information right now and doesn't negatively impact their turns to win. Obviously, this may be different because of the composition of the scum team and whether a specific player is scary, but what this REALLY means is that scum is likely to spread out their kills tonight, regardless of what we do. We want to use harmography specifically tonight because of this.

My suggestion, for N1

we use the No Pain option

and for N2 we use the Limited pool option. This gives us more information when targeting the vig shot (possibly even a guilty) and gives us optimal usage of the harmography potions on the night when it's most likely for them to be useful.

If scum goes wide on kills, they increase the chances we hit one of them with a watcher result

. If scum goes for a kill, they risk being caught as MULTIPLE BAD ACTORS by one investigation.

Tell me, Norwee: if Bingle is scum here, what sort of kill strategy do you think the scumteam would be going for?

'Cause I actually think the lack of the two most widely townread players being targeted by pain potions is pretty damn condemning for Bingle being scum, because it means EITHER: Bingle is scum and had huge input on the scumteam's actions OR: the scumteam in spite of not having Bingle among them still followed his plan anyway and took advantage of it.

The latter is not impossible but the former is far more likely.

[RCEnigma]

I've got some time for personal reasons and that may make it's way into the thread but I'm on one so bear with me.

I'll read up the other pages in a bit.

Running me up next would be a compound dumb move considering the dumb elim on Titus yesterday. Norwee/dwlee/ T3 can argue till you're blue in the face but the push on Titus was ONLY based on OMGUS. Not a single one of the three pushed suspicion on Titus until the 3 were brought up in Titus' solve. On top of that the 4th vote to secure the elim on Titus was FC who was townreading Titus.... All the way to an elim. Who needs enemies right?

The backwards casing on Titus being confrontational or in the case of T3 ( That Titus case on them was unbelievable and not based on logic but they were scum because they weren't using "moonlogic") is bullshit and to push me for not buying into it yesterday, also bullshit.

I'm no mechanical player or master manipulator or anything but I understand people (mostly).FL can attest to this when it took me all of like 2 games to nail his meta and force him to switch his entire style. I think my first game with Titus was Magical girl upick (norwee might have been there idk) but my first interaction with Titus was confrontational and it took me a bit of prodding to understand that Titus as a PERSON is very steadfast in their beliefs (whether the logic holds up or not and it's probably why she gets tagged with the moonlogic label all the time). So she's vocal about it and you have to PROVE her wrong not just tell her and figure it goes away.

This line from Titus was completely town, in like the first 2-300 posts she threw down like 4 votes (not piling on wagons) to see who jumped on what and where. Titus was fishing for information to draw some conclusions from and I didn't see it until diving into her iso (which is where I committed to Town!Titus which strongly resembled Titus from magical girl upick).

That was a lot to explain that I can identify a town Titus when I see it but whatever. Why didn't I try to stop Titus elim? The most likely scum in the pool of Titus opposers is dwlee and the resistance was strong enough that Titus and I couldn't get an elim there. T3 and Norwee both plugged their ears so there isn't much to sway the scale there and I realized that when you norwee were purposely antagonizing Titus instead of engaging with her in good faith. You thought she was scum so why interact in good faith, sure whatever. I don't remember you ever playing like that though so my toxic comment stands as is.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Point is, she dug her own grave.

For the record, blaming the town that you played a large part in eliminating for being the sole cause of their elimination is fucking disgusting and all of you doing this (it's not just you, T3; Norwee and Dwlee ALSO did it) should be ashamed. YOU fucked up by not reading her right. Is Titus blameless? No. She, objectively, made some bad plays, with her reads, reasons, and roleclaim, and that mishandling of things means she wasn't above reproach altogether. But she wasn't unreadable and she wasn't posting as scum by virtue of her having flipped town so taking zero accountability for it and blaming her exclusively for it is fucking disgusting.

I don't see the need to apologize when that time can be better spent hunting the remaining scum. They played scummy and thus i saw them as more scummy than the actual scum. That's all there is to it. I even thought they might have been town at one point but they misplaced that trust i put in them by continuing to scumread me for dumb reasons. I refuse to take some kind of high responsibility for this.

[RCEnigma]

I took a shot at FC last night hoping that at least two others saw the major swing away from FCs elim yesterday. I was 100% when I said that a town!Titus flip would earn FC a bullet.

Mastina you are going to have to hardsell bingle as scum imo, if he is he'd have to be a far removed third from FC and whichever of Norwee/T3/dwlee is just scum and not derptowning this game.

[mastina]

Oh, you mean Bingle was right and pain potions are negative utility that should not have been used N1? Cool.

I mean just because I think you're scum doesn't mean I think your mechanical advice was wrong--quite the opposite, you'd never lie about the mechanical advice. As scum you'd develop counterplay to your mechanical play (and I think the night actions last night suggest that this is in fact what happened), but you'd still suggest the play you genuinely believed to be the optimal play.

843 is your genuine thoughts on the optimal strategy to use in the game. While I'm not 100% sure it's necessarily the actual optimal strategy, I am still,
1: 90+% sure it's the optimal strategy, and
2: Even in the 10% chance it isn't the optimal strategy, I 100% believe you

think

it is the optimal strategy.

So you were right, or even if you weren't right, you

believed

you were right.

I just think that you happen to be scum that was ignored by town who used their pain potions, and who developed a scum counterplay to your own strategy you proposed.

[mastina]

(Btw in case it was unclear; I used the watch potion on Green Cap Boys. Nobody used a pain potion on them last night.)

[RCEnigma]

Oh, you mean Bingle was right and pain potions are negative utility that should not have been used N1? Cool.

I mean just because I think you're scum doesn't mean I think your mechanical advice was wrong--quite the opposite, you'd never lie about the mechanical advice. As scum you'd develop counterplay to your mechanical play (and I think the night actions last night suggest that this is in fact what happened), but you'd still suggest the play you genuinely believed to be the optimal play.

843 is your genuine thoughts on the optimal strategy to use in the game. While I'm not 100% sure it's necessarily the actual optimal strategy, I am still,
1: 90+% sure it's the optimal strategy, and
2: Even in the 10% chance it isn't the optimal strategy, I 100% believe you

think

it is the optimal strategy.

So you were right, or even if you weren't right, you

believed

you were right.

I just think that you happen to be scum that was ignored by town who used their pain potions, and who developed a scum counterplay to your own strategy you proposed.

This reminds me I wanted to ask you yesterday independent of already scumreading bingle. Do you think Scum!Bingle makes his mechanical wall and intentionally has scum!Dwlee jump in to obfuscate his town plan proposal?

I guess more directly asking would be do you think the interactions between bingle and dwlee are genuine or fabricated?

[NorwegianboyEE]

T3 and Norwee both plugged their ears so there isn't much to sway the scale there and I realized that when you norwee were purposely antagonizing Titus instead of engaging with her in good faith.

All my toxicity is for what it's worth. In response to what i find unfair treatment.
Titus claimed me/T3/Dwlee were locktowning each other, that's when i stopped showing respect because it was such an blatant lie that i didn't see anything they said after that as anything but scum trolling.

[NorwegianboyEE]

(Btw in case it was unclear; I used the watch potion on Green Cap Boys. Nobody used a pain potion on them last night.)

Odd. So it appears either scum isn't trying to kill any of the most nightkill baity players at all or they aren't using pain potions.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Or they knew that those were likely targets.