Open 828 | The Brethren Coalition | Game Over!
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- ssbm_Kyouko
- ssbm_Kyouko
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ssbm_Kyouko
- Jack of All Trades
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- Location: Middle Tennessee
If someone does not vote themselves into the coalition in this game it is against the town wincon and serves the scum wincon.
Consider the numbers - there are 9 of us, it is 7-2. Vote yourself into the coalition. There are 3 scenarios:
0 scum: Town wins. Yay!
1-2 scum: from each town player's POV, there is at least 1 scum inside a pool of 4 where town has 3 muslims available. If there is only 1 scum, you get 3 shots to hit scum where eliminating randomly you have a 75% chance of hitting scum in those 3 eliminations (probability is 1 minus the chance of hitting town 3 times in a row, so 1 - (3/4 * 2/3 * 1/2), cancel out the fractions you get 1 - 1/4, or 3/4, or 75%.
And that's the worst case. There's a chance there are 2 scum in the coalition which makes it a 100% chance to hit 1 scum in the first 3 eliminations from a town POV.
Players avoiding the coalition are avoiding the thunderdome and are playing to the scum wincon, which is to send a sacrificial goat to the coalition and have a deepwolf outside to close the game.
Consider the numbers - there are 9 of us, it is 7-2. Vote yourself into the coalition. There are 3 scenarios:
0 scum: Town wins. Yay!
1-2 scum: from each town player's POV, there is at least 1 scum inside a pool of 4 where town has 3 muslims available. If there is only 1 scum, you get 3 shots to hit scum where eliminating randomly you have a 75% chance of hitting scum in those 3 eliminations (probability is 1 minus the chance of hitting town 3 times in a row, so 1 - (3/4 * 2/3 * 1/2), cancel out the fractions you get 1 - 1/4, or 3/4, or 75%.
And that's the worst case. There's a chance there are 2 scum in the coalition which makes it a 100% chance to hit 1 scum in the first 3 eliminations from a town POV.
Players avoiding the coalition are avoiding the thunderdome and are playing to the scum wincon, which is to send a sacrificial goat to the coalition and have a deepwolf outside to close the game.
She/They
"No ssbm is not grudging me. She's one of my favorites on the website, and i wanna say vice versa." - Transcend
The day senpai noticed me^
"No ssbm is not grudging me. She's one of my favorites on the website, and i wanna say vice versa." - Transcend
The day senpai noticed me^
- ssbm_Kyouko
- ssbm_Kyouko
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ssbm_Kyouko
- Jack of All Trades
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- Posts: 5683
- Joined: November 3, 2016
- Location: Middle Tennessee
The way I see it is scum want to be in the five. Town will not worry so much about them selfs being in it simply becuse they can still win with out them selfs . I'm healing 4 at this point of time becuse save the dragons is in my Poe which stands to state scum are useing him to throw are win on day1 as for my self I hate being town read and I despise being in the core town . It limits my unpredictabley. Your also trying to use my thoughts to make your self sound better. I will now prove how you are copying me.In post 200, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:If someone does not vote themselves into the coalition in this game it is against the town wincon and serves the scum wincon.
Consider the numbers - there are 9 of us, it is 7-2. Vote yourself into the coalition. There are 3 scenarios:
0 scum: Town wins. Yay!
1-2 scum: from each town player's POV, there is at least 1 scum inside a pool of 4 where town has 3 muslims available. If there is only 1 scum, you get 3 shots to hit scum where eliminating randomly you have a 75% chance of hitting scum in those 3 eliminations (probability is 1 minus the chance of hitting town 3 times in a row, so 1 - (3/4 * 2/3 * 1/2), cancel out the fractions you get 1 - 1/4, or 3/4, or 75%.
And that's the worst case. There's a chance there are 2 scum in the coalition which makes it a 100% chance to hit 1 scum in the first 3 eliminations from a town POV.
Players avoiding the coalition are avoiding the thunderdome and are playing to the scum wincon, which is to send a sacrificial goat to the coalition and have a deepwolf outside to close the game.
This is what I said your really reaching here. Scum would be the 1st to heal them selfs. Town would be more reluctant simplely because they want in the five but need to be town read to get in it. Now you have me hoping my 5 is right.In post 150, cyrus62 wrote:See I already know how I would play this as scum. I would try to get my partner town read put in the 5 then hide in the shadows hoping every one elmanateed the 5 .
Imagine removing self from Coalition just to say "I would't do that as scum, even if it lowers my chances to win, townread pls". It's... No really. Too blatant. Too dumb.
So dumb it's really briliant. I don't think Cyrus is briliant genius as mafia.
If Cyrus really town and we not having him and me in Coalition, we probably can forget about win 1d, because i very doubt in our ability to snipe 5 townies in 7 people, 2 of whose is mafia. So i will try to go with second plan and try to catch both mafias in Coalition. I need time to consider though.
So dumb it's really briliant. I don't think Cyrus is briliant genius as mafia.
If Cyrus really town and we not having him and me in Coalition, we probably can forget about win 1d, because i very doubt in our ability to snipe 5 townies in 7 people, 2 of whose is mafia. So i will try to go with second plan and try to catch both mafias in Coalition. I need time to consider though.
- Farren
- Farren
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Farren He/Him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1420
- Joined: September 24, 2018
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Washington State, USA.
Interesting argument. Could be a positive.In post 194, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:Because when I'm town it is obvious so I'm a good candidate for the coalition regardless of my.alignment.easy to catch if scum, easy to clear if town.
Why are both the underlined true?
- Farren
- Farren
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Farren He/Him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1420
- Joined: September 24, 2018
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: Washington State, USA.
I think it could be a Town response. I'm having a hard time coming up with a type of scum player that would make that sort of claim.In post 197, cyrus62 wrote:Scum response. I'm aiming to win day1 not have scum in my 5.In post 194, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:Because when I'm town it is obvious so I'm a good candidate for the coalition regardless of my.alignment. easy to catch if scum, easy to clear if town.
- ssbm_Kyouko
- ssbm_Kyouko
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ssbm_Kyouko
- Jack of All Trades
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- Posts: 5683
- Joined: November 3, 2016
- Location: Middle Tennessee
If you think Cyrus is town you can put him in the coalition. If 5 people that arent Cyrus agree on a group of 5 that includes him, he still ends up in the coalitionIn post 205, Enchant wrote:Imagine removing self from Coalition just to say "I would't do that as scum, even if it lowers my chances to win, townread pls". It's... No really. Too blatant. Too dumb.
So dumb it's really briliant. I don't think Cyrus is briliant genius as mafia.
If Cyrus really town and we not having him and me in Coalition, we probably can forget about win 1d, because i very doubt in our ability to snipe 5 townies in 7 people, 2 of whose is mafia. So i will try to go with second plan and try to catch both mafias in Coalition. I need time to consider though.
She/They
"No ssbm is not grudging me. She's one of my favorites on the website, and i wanna say vice versa." - Transcend
The day senpai noticed me^
"No ssbm is not grudging me. She's one of my favorites on the website, and i wanna say vice versa." - Transcend
The day senpai noticed me^
- ssbm_Kyouko
- ssbm_Kyouko
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ssbm_Kyouko
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5683
- Joined: November 3, 2016
- Location: Middle Tennessee
I have difficulty emulating the full extent of my town play as scum, so it becomes apparent whether I am town or scum usually by D2 at the latest.In post 206, Farren wrote:Interesting argument. Could be a positive.In post 194, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:Because when I'm town it is obvious so I'm a good candidate for the coalition regardless of my.alignment.easy to catch if scum, easy to clear if town.
Why are both the underlined true?
She/They
"No ssbm is not grudging me. She's one of my favorites on the website, and i wanna say vice versa." - Transcend
The day senpai noticed me^
"No ssbm is not grudging me. She's one of my favorites on the website, and i wanna say vice versa." - Transcend
The day senpai noticed me^
Already did.In post 209, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:If you think Cyrus is town you can put him in the coalition. If 5 people that arent Cyrus agree on a group of 5 that includes him, he still ends up in the coalitionIn post 205, Enchant wrote:Imagine removing self from Coalition just to say "I would't do that as scum, even if it lowers my chances to win, townread pls". It's... No really. Too blatant. Too dumb.
So dumb it's really briliant. I don't think Cyrus is briliant genius as mafia.
If Cyrus really town and we not having him and me in Coalition, we probably can forget about win 1d, because i very doubt in our ability to snipe 5 townies in 7 people, 2 of whose is mafia. So i will try to go with second plan and try to catch both mafias in Coalition. I need time to consider though.
Issue is. HE DOESH'T WANT IT.
- ssbm_Kyouko
- ssbm_Kyouko
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ssbm_Kyouko
- Jack of All Trades
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- Posts: 5683
- Joined: November 3, 2016
- Location: Middle Tennessee
Take Nathann out you probably have 4 town there. Big shocker when you already knew who was town though.In post 204, cyrus62 wrote:This is what I said your really reaching here. Scum would be the 1st to heal them selfs. Town would be more reluctant simplely because they want in the five but need to be town read to get in it. Now you have me hoping my 5 is right.In post 150, cyrus62 wrote:See I already know how I would play this as scum. I would try to get my partner town read put in the 5 then hide in the shadows hoping every one elmanateed the 5 .
She/They
"No ssbm is not grudging me. She's one of my favorites on the website, and i wanna say vice versa." - Transcend
The day senpai noticed me^
"No ssbm is not grudging me. She's one of my favorites on the website, and i wanna say vice versa." - Transcend
The day senpai noticed me^
Knew? I was asking for players to work with me my town read consistent of people willing to work with me. 5 I'm down to four.In post 213, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:Take Nathann out you probably have 4 town there. Big shocker when you already knew who was town though.In post 204, cyrus62 wrote:This is what I said your really reaching here. Scum would be the 1st to heal them selfs. Town would be more reluctant simplely because they want in the five but need to be town read to get in it. Now you have me hoping my 5 is right.In post 150, cyrus62 wrote:See I already know how I would play this as scum. I would try to get my partner town read put in the 5 then hide in the shadows hoping every one elmanateed the 5 .
- ssbm_Kyouko
- ssbm_Kyouko
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ssbm_Kyouko
- Jack of All Trades
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- Location: Middle Tennessee
- Save The Dragons
- Save The Dragons
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Save The Dragons He/Him
- Protection unnecessary
- Protection unnecessary
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- Pavowski
- Pavowski
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Pavowski He/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2044
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
That might be optimistic, but in an infinite universe anything is possibleIn post 195, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:Implying I will feel town later?In post 193, Pavowski wrote:Kinda sorta feel the same, but they're only a couple posts deep.In post 191, Save The Dragons wrote:something about ssbm's posts bother me
The good thing about this is round 1 isn't necessarily about finding scum, it's about finding town.
Ssbm doesn't feel town yet.
I agree with most of this, but I also tend to find people who dive deep into mechanics scummy.ssbm_Kyouko wrote:If someone does not vote themselves into the coalition in this game it is against the town wincon and serves the scum wincon.
Consider the numbers - there are 9 of us, it is 7-2. Vote yourself into the coalition. There are 3 scenarios:
0 scum: Town wins. Yay!
1-2 scum: from each town player's POV, there is at least 1 scum inside a pool of 4 where town has 3 muslims available. If there is only 1 scum, you get 3 shots to hit scum where eliminating randomly you have a 75% chance of hitting scum in those 3 eliminations (probability is 1 minus the chance of hitting town 3 times in a row, so 1 - (3/4 * 2/3 * 1/2), cancel out the fractions you get 1 - 1/4, or 3/4, or 75%.
And that's the worst case. There's a chance there are 2 scum in the coalition which makes it a 100% chance to hit 1 scum in the first 3 eliminations from a town POV.
Players avoiding the coalition are avoiding the thunderdome and are playing to the scum wincon, which is to send a sacrificial goat to the coalition and have a deepwolf outside to close the game.
Sorry SSBM, you sound townish, but you're not there.
Yet.
- Pavowski
- Pavowski
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Pavowski He/him
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2044
- Joined: May 25, 2021
- Pronoun: He/him
- Location: Bowling, probably
I heckin agree with this and it is upon reading this post I remind myself I only have so much stamina for decoding Cyrus in a day.In post 216, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:Just throwing townreads to whoever is willing to work with you is not going to find you 5 town.
Anyway I hurted myself to play Cyrus's game for a bit but I'm done with that now. HEAL: Pav
- Save The Dragons
- Save The Dragons
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Save The Dragons He/Him
- Protection unnecessary
- Protection unnecessary
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- ssbm_Kyouko
- ssbm_Kyouko
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ssbm_Kyouko
- Jack of All Trades
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- Joined: November 3, 2016
- Location: Middle Tennessee
Alright idk if scum jokes about this immediately after I call it out. I think Pav was scum in Dead Silence but that was a lolgame and I learned nothing. Leaning town here possibly.In post 218, Pavowski wrote:Yet
She/They
"No ssbm is not grudging me. She's one of my favorites on the website, and i wanna say vice versa." - Transcend
The day senpai noticed me^
"No ssbm is not grudging me. She's one of my favorites on the website, and i wanna say vice versa." - Transcend
The day senpai noticed me^