Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[Aristeia]

It is the sequence of assignments

[Tanner]

I don't think I said I town read imaginality, did I?

the readslist was +town because readslists early often grab attention and scum doesn't want that - that's what you said. i assumed that meant you're townreading him.

from memory, what were your reads if he was middle of the pack?

[Lukewarm]

Okay, got my laptop.

So, I see what you are saying, but it is hard to accept just based on my own reads. Scum Ari would have to be the most suicidal scum player ever, offering to vote you, then offering to vote me, then saying they wanted the vote, and then urging you to tell her who to vote. That last one is probably the strongest reason to think that she is town because you can argue that all the others are just talk. But if you, at any point, tell her that she should vote, that is a hard one to walk back from, so urging you to do that is wild.

So, just being up front, I am approaching this idea looking for the counter argument. Devil's advocate if you will.

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So lets play the game of, if darby were scum, would the scum of baltar/imaginiality suggest darby come to the same location as them.

Keep is locked in me+Ari, both others are open.

So, the options are:
-suggest Darby goes to the keep
-suggest Darby goes to the same location as them
-suggest Darby goes to the opposite location as them.

I don't know that there was ever a good argument to send Darby to the keep at the time, so I kinda want to throw that option away.

Having Scum!Darby go to the same location as them forces a 2-1-0 split. Sending Scum!Darby to the opposite location also forces a 2-1-0 split, unless they think that they can get their other partner into the keep.

So, could Scum!Toog or Scum!numberQ get into the keep, and would they want to? I don't think that scum!numberQ could have gotten themselves into the keep. Scum!Toog probably could have. So, if scum were prioritizing a 1-1-1 split in this scenario, then maybe this points to scum!numberQ.

But I also don't see Toog or numberQ winning the keep. So even if they get one of them there, then I think they end up swappng them out for Darby anyways?

If on the other hand, scum had already accepted a 2-1-0 split, then I don't think they care where DArby goes at that point? He goes to the wall, they swap him with implo to decide the wall, if he goes to the gate, they swap him with implo and make implo the IC.

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So, I think that your point is valid, if the scum team was prioritizing a 1-1-1 split, but falls apart if they had accepted a 2-1-0 split.

It does however even further clear implo I think? If implo is scum, then I think that they must have achieved a 1-1-1 split. I don't think that they would have accidentally achieved that, and if they were aiming for that, then I don't think they would have been out making suggestions that would have taken it away.

So, my conclusion is that them both suggesting DArby could go to either place implies that they accepted a 2-1-0 split and that implo is town.

[Tanner]

okay, i'm bored of discussing that. baltar, do you have any reactions to 724?

luke, will read the big post in a bit.

[Tanner]

to make clear, i don't think i'm gonna get much because my reaction is mostly "yeah i guess" and i don't think there's any slips there strong enough that i would bet my vote on so.

[VP Baltar]

I don't think I said I town read imaginality, did I?

the readslist was +town because readslists early often grab attention and scum doesn't want that - that's what you said. i assumed that meant you're townreading him.

from memory, what were your reads if he was middle of the pack?

I mean I definitely said that. I'm just saying it was not like I was simping for him in thread or something. That's why I said "potential" townbloc. I was not certain on him at all, but more in the null to potential town range. I still do think it's incredibly dumb for scum to post a reads list like that and it was the first thing I went back to now that I know he's scum.

[Aristeia]

VPB are you going to respond to Imag's case on you?

[Lukewarm]

The flip side being that if Ari is scum, I don't think that they would suggest scum!darby going to the same location as them because it would stop a 1-1-1 split - but this is a pointless thread, because ari can never be scum with darby at this point - Same applies to me obviously.

[VP Baltar]

okay, i'm bored of discussing that. baltar, do you have any reactions to 724?

luke, will read the big post in a bit.

I have not read that giant wall Luke posted, so I don't have any reactions yet. I'm trying to follow what yall are saying I reversed on, but I think I need to read the big post to understand what is even being referenced

[Lukewarm]

I don't think I said I town read imaginality, did I?

the readslist was +town because readslists early often grab attention and scum doesn't want that - that's what you said. i assumed that meant you're townreading him.

from memory, what were your reads if he was middle of the pack?

I mean I definitely said that. I'm just saying it was not like I was simping for him in thread or something. That's why I said "potential" townbloc. I was not certain on him at all, but more in the null to potential town range. I still do think it's incredibly dumb for scum to post a reads list like that and it was the first thing I went back to now that I know he's scum.

Calling someone a potential town block material if they were in the null town range feel weird.

But also, why would even say this is you are scum? Wouldn't it be easier to just say 'I thought he was town, but obviously I was wrong"

[VP Baltar]

VPB are you going to respond to Imag's case on you?

Yeah, when I get to it. I'm trying to answer questions people are asking me and do chores around my house and reread the 10-15 pages I didn't read when I was on vacation. What's the rush?

[Tanner]

It does however even further clear implo I think? If implo is scum, then I think that they must have achieved a 1-1-1 split. I don't think that they would have accidentally achieved that, and if they were aiming for that, then I don't think they would have been out making suggestions that would have taken it away.

can you dumb this down for me? x_x

[Lukewarm]

okay, i'm bored of discussing that. baltar, do you have any reactions to 724?

luke, will read the big post in a bit.

I have not read that giant wall Luke posted, so I don't have any reactions yet. I'm trying to follow what yall are saying I reversed on, but I think I need to read the big post to understand what is even being referenced

The big post I opened up with is sectioned off by the player I was talking about. You can just read your section, and you will have all of the context for this discussion with Tanner

[VP Baltar]

Calling someone a potential town block material if they were in the null town range feel weird.

But also, why would even say this is you are scum? Wouldn't it be easier to just say 'I thought he was town, but obviously I was wrong"

Just saying what I was honestly thinking at the time. I don't even know what scum motivation you think exists.

[Lukewarm]

It does however even further clear implo I think? If implo is scum, then I think that they must have achieved a 1-1-1 split. I don't think that they would have accidentally achieved that, and if they were aiming for that, then I don't think they would have been out making suggestions that would have taken it away.

can you dumb this down for me? x_x

I don't know how without making another massive wall post, and apparently those are not getting read x.x

But basically, I am discounting the Scum implo + scum darby + gate scum option. Because suggesting that you and Darby are interchangeable does not make sense in that option, because scum were so close to the 1-1-1 split, I think that they would be going for it.

So from my pov, scum implo only works with scum ari, and that also feels bad because that would be my top two town reads both being wrong, and both ended up in a 2-1-0 split when I think they could have avoided it.

[VP Baltar]

okay, i'm bored of discussing that. baltar, do you have any reactions to 724?

luke, will read the big post in a bit.

I have not read that giant wall Luke posted, so I don't have any reactions yet. I'm trying to follow what yall are saying I reversed on, but I think I need to read the big post to understand what is even being referenced

I think 1) you are mistaken that I couldn't agree with what ari was saying and also be suspicious that she could be scum early voting, and 2) I don't think you're right that I "180ed" on that stance. I pointed out to implo that facts from his other game showed scum moved second, ie they were among the first movers.

The big post I opened up with is sectioned off by the player I was talking about. You can just read your section, and you will have all of the context for this discussion with Tanner

[VP Baltar]

Agfkcubbs phone posting

[VP Baltar]

okay, i'm bored of discussing that. baltar, do you have any reactions to 724?

luke, will read the big post in a bit.

I have not read that giant wall Luke posted, so I don't have any reactions yet. I'm trying to follow what yall are saying I reversed on, but I think I need to read the big post to understand what is even being referenced

I think 1) you are mistaken that I couldn't agree with what ari was saying and also be suspicious that she could be scum early voting, and 2) I don't think you're right that I "180ed" on that stance. I pointed out to implo that facts from his other game showed scum moved second, ie they were among the first movers.

The big post I opened up with is sectioned off by the player I was talking about. You can just read your section, and you will have all of the context for this discussion with Tanner

Implo was talking about literal first movers and I was talking about early voters in general. The fact ari said that doesn't make her +town and it's silly you'd make that assumption.

[Lukewarm]

Calling someone a potential town block material if they were in the null town range feel weird.

But also, why would even say this is you are scum? Wouldn't it be easier to just say 'I thought he was town, but obviously I was wrong"

Just saying what I was honestly thinking at the time. I don't even know what scum motivation you think exists.

This is a post where I am considering you being town, so makes sense that you are not seeing a scum motivation here lol.

The way you are dancing around the "potential town block" not meaning you actually thought he was town at the time, feels weird. And my gut reaction to that was that your day 1 reads were manufactured. BUT I don't understand why scum!you would go down this path instead of just saying that you discovered that you were wrong the moment Tanner was made an IC

[Lukewarm]

Implo was talking about literal first movers and I was talking about early voters in general. The fact ari said that doesn't make her +town and it's silly you'd make that assumption.

I am not sure what you are saying here?

Spoiler: The posts I'm talking about

I kind of agree with Aris that first movers probably have +scum

due to the simple fact scum have more direct incentive to move first.

My point is there is more likely to be a scum among the first movers due to the desire to prevent a lockout.

I agree first first mover is probably slightly +town.

Of course, now that we have talked about it, it feels like it all means nothing, so...

From my pov it just looks like you called me +scum in 120 and then turned around and called me +town in 138 for the exact same action, both times being agreeable with who ever made the original argument.

Are you saying that you were calling ari +scum in 120? if so, why lead it with "I agree with ari"

[Lukewarm]

Or were you talking completely in the abstract both times, despite there already being early voters?

[VP Baltar]

Are you saying that you were calling ari +scum in 120? if so, why lead it with "I agree with ari"

Why not? Scum can say things that are true and I did agree with it.

I don't there is any guarantee scum had to be among first movers, but I do think they have motivation to do so. It is risky of course because scum are also likely concerned with looking like they are trying to control too much.

To me this feels like you thinking about something in black and white, and what I'm saying is "here is what I think is generally likely, but there areany ways this can play out".

I think it was fairly obvious I was more suspicious of ari than you on d1 given I put a lot more questions to her that she kept avoiding.

Pedit: yes, to some degree I am talking through what I think optimal scum strategy would be. Doesn't fully mean that's what happened

[Lukewarm]

Then I guess that brings me back to

it does not feel like he was actually trying to sort me because he was not applying these thoughts to me, the actual first voter, he seemed to be talking about it in the abstract

What is your read on me?

[Lukewarm]

It is the sequence of assignments

Did you have any enlightening thoughts looking at it?

[Aristeia]

Not really

it fits the worldview that I have and it also fits other worlds where I am wrong