Not Quite Normal Multiball II (Game Over)

[MathBlade]

Other than genuinely having the worst attitude I've ever seen you have, you've been using subtle manipulations all game long.
And no, nothing does prevent me from gladiating you tomorrow - I said I'm going for FL though, and thats where I'm going. I'm sticking to what I've said.

And while I live, you're on Death's List - and I plan to take you down in due course.

Can I ask you to vote FL today and then after he flips mafia you still scumread me do it tomorrow?

Like if you scumread FL he should absolutely go first to save the mafia kill.

[Nero Cain]

keeper already hammered u lol

[Cephrir]

votecount 5.F

MathBlade (6) | Sword of Ducks, Flavor Leaf, Nashville Dreams, Save The Dragons, Nero Cain, The Keeper

Flavor Leaf (4) | MathBlade, tictac, Menalque, bnuuy

bnuuy (1) | Klick

Not Voting |

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to politely ask someone to leave.

Deadline: (expired on 2022-06-20 21:29:00).

[Cephrir]

MathBlade has been politely asked to leave. He was a...

Spoiler:

Town Modified Jack of all Trades (gunsmith, occultist, doctor, cleric)

Modified: 2 shots of each ability

It is now Night 5. 48 hours.

[Cephrir]

Save The Dragons has fled town. He was a...

Spoiler:

Town Monk

The Keeper has fled town. They were a...

Spoiler:

Town 1-shot Gladiator

It is now Day 6. With 8 alive, it takes 5 to politely ask to leave.

[bnuuy]

VOTE: Flavor Leaf
This is probably the only one that gets direct benefit from killing Keeper

[Klick]

We are obviously not voting the Monk with 3 wolves alive

[Klick]

Town has to work directly with Mafia today and Mafia has to aim for a wolf at night if we miss

[Klick]

I'm very glad that we did not vote Mafia yesterday because I don't actually have much faith in this town to all come together at this point

Sword of Ducks, can I ask that you please sheep Flavor Leaf's vote today? He is guaranteed to not be a wolf, who we absolutely need to aim for today.

[Nashville Dreams]

Town has to work directly with Mafia today and Mafia has to aim for a wolf at night if we miss

Disagree but I was wrong on setup spec.

Both sides likely cannot kill tonight. (Kills on nights 4 and 5).
Flipping a mafia puts us at 3 scum 7 alive.
We could shoot for a wolf today, but we'd have to flip mafia tomorrow unless I am wrong somewhere.

~Titus

[Klick]

Ah yes, the kill reduction thing

We don't particularly need to aim for Mafia at all when Mafia has incentive to shoot Wolves
Also, Mafia probably recognises that they need to basically townie at the moment because this town is not getting it done during the day

[Klick]

I STRONGLY suggest that we go with the strategy I suggested yesterday, where we have our own opinions but ultimately sheep the confirmed not-wolves (FL and myself).
The four town and one wolf are not going to individually agree on voting a wolf today.

[Nashville Dreams]

Ah yes, the kill reduction thing

We don't particularly need to aim for Mafia at all when Mafia has incentive to shoot Wolves
Also, Mafia probably recognises that they need to basically townie at the moment because this town is not getting it done during the day

Hard disagree. Mafia have their kills dictated. You're confirmed not wolf.

[Klick]

Four town and one mafia*

[Nashville Dreams]

I think we should follow your opinion on who the wolves are. However, FL is just going to say tictac. That's in his interest. Tictac may be a wolf, but his position is telegraphed.

[bnuuy]

Unless we’re confident we can hit 2 scum in a row going for the last mafia seems more sensible

We’re at 4:3:1 rn
Hitting a wolf and a town leaves us at 3:2:1
If the kills go poorly n7 we lose that night with those numbers going in

Meanwhile if we hit mafia today tomorrow is 7p ELo, which while still tense is more skill-dependent of an outcome

[Klick]

I think we should follow your opinion on who the wolves are. However, FL is just going to say tictac. That's in his interest. Tictac may be a wolf, but his position is telegraphed.

This is valid reasoning and I'm fine with this. I just don't have confidence in people listening to me so I might need your help to sway people to this way of thinking.

[Klick]

Unless we’re confident we can hit 2 scum in a row going for the last mafia seems more sensible

We’re at 4:3:1 rn
Hitting a wolf and a town leaves us at 3:2:1
If the kills go poorly n7 we lose that night with those numbers going in

Meanwhile if we hit mafia today tomorrow is 7p ELo, which while still tense is more skill-dependent of an outcome

Skill-dependent doesn't trump the odds being strictly lower for town winning.

I also don't think Flavor Leaf or anyone else is confirmed Mafia enough for us to specifically aim at them. I can see this as reasoning to aim in people who could be either scum, but I'm not going to vote for Flavor Leaf today.

[Flavor Leaf]

VOTE: Flavor Leaf
This is probably the only one that gets direct benefit from killing Keeper

This is not true. A keeper kill was always gonna hard incriminate me.

I think that had Keeper stayed alive, there was a decent chance they were the ones that got faded instead of me. Their end of day, imo, was pretty scummy.

I wouldn’t be surprised if that was an attempted cross kill with the framing effect on me as well.

——

So here’s the thing, because Klick is Conf town, there’s only 2 town in Nero/Sword/Nashville/Bnuuy/Menalque/TicTac.

For me, that’s an easy 50% cut off with the back half being scum in my eyes.

That leaves me to finding the scum in Nero/Sword/Nashville.

[Nashville Dreams]

Unless we’re confident we can hit 2 scum in a row going for the last mafia seems more sensible

We’re at 4:3:1 rn
Hitting a wolf and a town leaves us at 3:2:1
If the kills go poorly n7 we lose that night with those numbers going in

Meanwhile if we hit mafia today tomorrow is 7p ELo, which while still tense is more skill-dependent of an outcome

Skill-dependent doesn't trump the odds being strictly lower for town winning.

I also don't think Flavor Leaf or anyone else is confirmed Mafia enough for us to specifically aim at them. I can see this as reasoning to aim in people who could be either scum, but I'm not going to vote for Flavor Leaf today.

I think FL is the default elimination if nothing else feels good today. Given how strongly Math felt, despite his inaccuracies previously, we have to at least consider Flavor but not lock it in.

[Flavor Leaf]

With no kills likely happening tonight, that means if we hit a wolf, then we’re at 7.

We hit another wolf Day 7, we at 6.

With a 4-1-1 split. Going into night 7, worst case scenario we get to a 2-1-1.

Crosskilling stops that, but it’s risky.

If we hit wolf today, then mafia tomorrow, we at 6 in a 4-2 split going into Night 7, and we end up in a 5p eylo.

[Nashville Dreams]

If we eliminate wolves, we go to 4:2:1.
Then, if we eliminate a wolf, 4:1:1.
Scum kill 2 town, kingmaker 2:1:1
Wolves kill mafia, mafia kill town or vice versa 3:1 mylo. [Mafia have no incentive to shoot a wolf unless they feel they win kingmaker AND scum won't shoot them.]
Wolves kill mafia, mafia kill wolves town win.

If we hit a town 3:3:1 this requires mafia to townside to win
Need mafia help to hit a wolf. 3:2:1
Then wolves shoot mafia, mafia hits wolf 2:1 elo

[Nashville Dreams]

Menalque probably Mafia.

I killed Catboi, I killed Mastina. I hard pushed and lead CSF on Day 2.

I have called out Math, TicTac, and Bnuuy as the rest of the wolves.

Other than Enchant and Butter, I am a leading factor pushing 7/9 scum.

You can dislike me and how I play, but out of 3 of the 4 group scum pushed, I was one of the, if not, the biggest ones pushing each of them.

You can check how my other town games where I am doing well on work, and in those games I am constantly under fire.


Keep in mind, CSF targeted Menalque Night 2, and Menalque is the one to come out and say "CSF is not a wolf!", and then the next night, I am the one who got the message, the one who was pushing CSF the most."

Why did Menalque get that?

Who got the message on Night 1?

Menalque is Mafia.

Mathblade, TicTac, and Bnuuy are wolves.

I can give you Math and Bnuuy.
I can give you Menalque and tictac.

I can't give you tictac and bnuuy.

Then one of them are the Mafia. Either way, fading in those 4 wins this game.

I don't see a setup in those four where anyone but Math or menalque is mafia and then that gives me a team that makes no sense according to my VCA. I can see both tictac and bnuuy as scum but not them both together. Particularly with their push jointly with Mathblade.

This is what I see Flavor. Am I right or wrong?

[Nashville Dreams]

Also Flavor, do you see any chance we accidentally eliminate a mafia today?

[Flavor Leaf]

Klick can’t be wolf.

I think both Nero and Nashville are not wild based on the pushing of Catboi.

The 3 wolves are within Bnuuy, Menalque, TicTac, Sword.

If the team is exactly Bnuuy, Menalque, TicTac, Mafia is within Nero/Sword/Titus.

If the Sword is a Wolf, then I think the last Mafia is whichever of Bnuuy/Menalque isn’t a wolf.

This does make TicTac a lock wolf in my eyes, however. Which kinda sucks on a macro level since that’s where ND said I’ll just push. i think it’s just correct, though.