Newbie 2096 | Nathan For You | Endgame

[BlueBloodedToffee]

There is no risk, right. I agree.

Again, it literally makes 0 difference.

[Rad]

In fact the only risk is that bella votes rad and changes her mind before town!bbt can come in to vote. It's riskier for town!bbt to have his vote off me right now.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Nah, it isn't.

Bella isn't the impulsive type.

[Rad]

This thought process is objectively correct. Town!bbt is taking an unnecessary risk leaving his vote off me. He should worry that bella votes and unvotes before he has a chance to hammer scum!rad. Bella is town without perfect knowledge and town!bbt knows I'm scum. The risk is in Bella making the wrong choice.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Was a good effort though trying to spin it though , good effort.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

That sentence is a complete mess

[Rad]

It's called thinking through something and deriving a conclusion that was different than your initial thought. It's how reasoning works. Do you disagree with my final conclusion? Do you not feel it's the risky play for town!bbt to have his vote off confirmed scum right now?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I think it's riskier for scum!BBT to miss a potentially game winning vote on town!Rad, no?

Where is the risk in town!BBT not voting? I have to wait for Bella

[Rad]

Scum's move here is calculated. You believe the best bet for bella voting me is to not pressure her. Sure she could vote and unvote, but that scenario is after what you're going for here, which is the initial vote. Like you said, her likelihood of unvoting may be low. That's scum's calculated risk. You lower her chance more if you pressure her here and that outweighs the scenario where she votes and unvotes.

Those calculations don't matter for town!bbt. It's just riskier to not have your vote on confirmed scum. You plant to your vote and give Bella space to breathe, or you scum hunt my iso.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I could scum hunt your ISO, but essentially, my vote doesn't matter.

Bella's does. I could try and influence Bella's vote, sure. I probably should be doing that. I'd rather let her try to figure it out from everything that has gone before though

[Somnus]

My play gained town winning knowledge for me but not you. That's a losing move that I didn't realize when I was making it. I was just seeing town clears happening which should be objectively good for town right? Well it cleared into a scenario where rad is the most unknown to 1 of the remaining towns and gives both scum a way to show why they believe in scum!rad. Bbt didn't capitalize on that so that should be a huge red flag but corwin did have a reply to somnus that suggested he realized it. Not sure if he realized before or after somnus question but it's easy for him to suggest he did. I think the play here even if you flip bbt red today is nk somnus and let corwin push you to lim me d4. I'll put together a corwin scum case if we reach that point but tell me now Bella, are you convinced in me scum over corwin or are you still on the fence? If convinced, ok no worries, I don't blame you, but please put us out of our misery after you and somnus have had a chance to talk.

I disagree. It only looks like that because you were the one whose vote has been out there, so yes it would mostly clear non-Rad teams. If it had been Bella or I dangling our votes out there, it would have cleared most, if not all of the Rad-Teams.

[Rad]

My play gained town winning knowledge for me but not you. That's a losing move that I didn't realize when I was making it. I was just seeing town clears happening which should be objectively good for town right? Well it cleared into a scenario where rad is the most unknown to 1 of the remaining towns and gives both scum a way to show why they believe in scum!rad. Bbt didn't capitalize on that so that should be a huge red flag but corwin did have a reply to somnus that suggested he realized it. Not sure if he realized before or after somnus question but it's easy for him to suggest he did. I think the play here even if you flip bbt red today is nk somnus and let corwin push you to lim me d4. I'll put together a corwin scum case if we reach that point but tell me now Bella, are you convinced in me scum over corwin or are you still on the fence? If convinced, ok no worries, I don't blame you, but please put us out of our misery after you and somnus have had a chance to talk.

I disagree. It only looks like that because you were the one whose vote has been out there, so yes it would mostly clear non-Rad teams. If it had been Bella or I dangling our votes out there, it would have cleared most, if not all of the Rad-Teams.

Yeah somnus. I mean I think the play is solid but I should have discussed it first. "Who's up for seeing how good dead town's reads were??". That's actually a decent ice breaker given how heavily town read BBT scum. Instead I just went for it which came across scummy.

Again I don't see why the hell I make this move as scum but that's up for town to decide.

[Somnus]

What do you want to talk to me about, somnus? Think I'm delaying the inevitable here.

Hadn't fully thought it through, but regardless of what you think of the risks that Rad committed today, everything he is saying here today in Day 3 makes sense, and most of it is objectively true. From his end, the game is solved, and I'm on-board at this point. I'm willing to go as far as to say that from my end, the game is now solved too.

If Rad is scum, he took the absolute dumbest path to win a game that scum was in a very good position to win heading into Day 3. He completely cleared you as town, which is incredibly stupid as scum, considering my skepticism of BlueBlood/Bella. He cleared me of being paired with anyone but himself, and the only reason that team isn't a 100% clear is because I wasn't able to pop in while BlueBlood was at E-1 early in Day 3. Rad/Somnus scum team means I didn't give enough of a shit to coordinate with Rad or show up to hammer the player I've been scum-reading the majority of the game and end a game that I clearly wanted out of for more of it than not.

That makes sense. You understand I feel a bit...rail roaded though? But railroading me is your winning move as town and scum.

I'm not even sure what somnus wants to talk about, so I'm waiting til our times align.

You are I suppose in an unfortunate situation. I can think of more stuff to add to try and convince you later on, but by then I imagine our schedules won't line up due to my weird hours + timezone differences. I can still try to later anyway though. If you go back and look at even just the last 24-48 hours through the lens of Town!Rad, pretty much everything he has said is objectively true. I didn't exactly expect to be lock-towning Rad going into Day 3.

[Somnus]

There's no guarantee on how someone will react to this knowledge regardless of alignment. But we do know that town!bbt places his vote on confirmed scum rad. There's absolutely no reason not to and bbt is not at all afraid to use his most powerful town tool except when there's a major risk. There's no risk here so scum!bbt scum slipped by not following what we know town!bbt should be doing. He's doubling down here still not voting me to attempt to justify his original lack of vote.

This is correct. From the perspective of a Town!BlueBlood (which doesn't exist in this game), he has the equivalent of a cop guilty on Rad at this point. The only scum-teams that could exist to a Town!BlueBlood are Rad/Somnus and Rad/Corwin. And yet, he's pretending that it's a risk for him to vote for Rad at this point. This isn't town.

[Bellaphant]

Hey bbt, it kind of feels like you gave up a bit the minute I realised you were the counter to every dead town wagon.

I honestly think town bbt should just be voting rad here, I can't work out why you aren't?

P-edit, what somnus said. I'll let bbt answer

[Bellaphant]

Like, corwin should be and is voting rad.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I never said there was any risk

I said there was no difference in whether I vote or not

[Bellaphant]

Town corwin, anyway.

It sucks I am most confirmed but have the most options!

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Hey bbt, it kind of feels like you gave up a bit the minute I realised you were the counter to every dead town wagon.

I honestly think town bbt should just be voting rad here, I can't work out why you aren't?

P-edit, what somnus said. I'll let bbt answer

Yeah, I can't lie. Seeing that in the VCA kind of killed me because I couldn't use it for anything useful.

It's usually my to go to in ELo so it kind of stumped me.

[Bellaphant]

There is no risk, right. I agree.

Again, it literally makes 0 difference.

? Can you rephrase?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

The only thing I got from it was my wagon being the counter to Corwin.

And even that was tipped in my favour through conf town.

Rad's unvote from Corwin and onto you (Bella) stood out and I still don't think he explained that very well.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

There is no risk, right. I agree.

Again, it literally makes 0 difference.

? Can you rephrase?

There is no risk for me to vote.

It makes 0 difference to the game state whether I am voting or not.

[Rad]

Hey somnus, mind clearing me and corwin now by voting bbt?

[Rad]

This would not only clear me and corwin but it would pressure him to come back to the thread and respond to why he won't clear me and somnus. Or he can clear me and somnus too

[Somnus]

Give me like 20 minutes. I'm pretty damn certain of this solve too, but I need to prepare myself for the unlikely scenario that scum!Rad just took the absolute dumbest path to victory here and that I could end up being the donkey that loses the game. I don't think that's what's going to happen though.