Micro 1058: Is This Thing Loaded? -- Game Over!

[GuiltyLion]

I don't think analyzing Galron kill is likely to help much. With a short D1 there's not a ton of insight we can glean from Galrons reads, but even in longer D1 games I don't really think NKA is useful until you have a pattern of several kills to look at. Scum could have killed him for any number of reasons (thought he wasnt miselimmable, thought he had townreads on other players that blocked a path to victory, thought he was definitively not a bomb, thought other players were more likely to be vigged, thought he might be most likely to catch them, etc) and those reasons may vary based on who it is. I think any guesses as to why he was killed would just be guesses and not useful information

[Frogsterking]

UNVOTE: alex 232 is bad enough to make me reconsider.

This is not a useful response, what specifically do you dislike about my post

You're jumping to a lot of conclusions and seem biased against reasons to trust me and vote Alex. For example you're greatly overvaluing Dunn's meta case which doesn't use a sufficiently large sample size to support its conclusion. You also made a couple concrete errors in your assessments of this game. For example you said I implied all Alex has done is fence sit and I think you'll have trouble quoting where I actually implied that.

[Frogsterking]

UNVOTE: GuiltyLion

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Guilty Lion

[ceejayvinoya]

Hiiii

[Pavowski]

ceejayvinoya replaces Ph0enix.

[GuiltyLion]

You're jumping to a lot of conclusions and seem biased against reasons to trust me and vote Alex. For example you're greatly overvaluing Dunn's meta case which doesn't use a sufficiently large sample size to support its conclusion. You also made a couple concrete errors in your assessments of this game. For example you said I implied all Alex has done is fence sit and I think you'll have trouble quoting where I actually implied that.

a) what are the reasons to trust you? I reread the game and really didn't find any

b) I agree from like a Logical Completeness perspective, Dunn's meta case doesn't have enough of a sample size, that's why I didn't initially immediately sheep it. However from what was presented, it does look like in your most recent town games you had a more broad focus on the entire playerlist whereas in two recent scumgames you were more tunnel-focused in nature. As someone who was in KTANE, this also matches up with my experience where you were giving several scumreads and readlist on almost the entire PL super early into the game, something you didn't do here. Can you provide any examples of town games where you tunneled a player immediately / didn't focus on a broad perspective? Or scum games where you presented a wide variety of reads? That would refute the case a lot better than simply saying the sample size is too small

c) first off, this feels like a semantic nitpick moreso than something you really think is alignment indicative, but my retort would be that you actually

did

imply that. The thing about implying things is that the implication isn't in the form of you saying "All Alexcellent has done is be cagey" - that would not be an implication, that would be explicit - but rather the implication occurs when you

don't

give any mention to times where he wasn't cagey or non-committal.

here's what you said:

I switched onto Alex instead of GL because

I read Alex's D1 iso and realized it's much worse than I expected.

These posts caught my attention by showing Alex fence-sitting and being noncommittal and cagey. Like wtf is he even stating in any of these posts. These posts are a superficial illusion of sharing thoughts.

here's what I said:

I can definitely talk myself into scumreading him because there are certainly moments of waffle/fence-sitting as Frogster also pointed out, but within the overall context of the ISO and the game I think

it's slightly uncharitable to imply that's all he's done

, he was pretty forward with his Bambi vote/reasoning and his D2 evaluation of me as well as 208 don't feel like fence sitting either.

I didn't say "Frogster said that all Alex has done has fence sit", what I said was "it's uncharitable to imply that's all he's done", which is IMO a fair assessment of the two posts I quoted. You said Alexcellent's ISO was "much worse than expected" and then highlighted fence-sitting, noncommittal posts. In doing so, you omit posts where Alexcellent was

not

fence-sitting, and you also didn't comment on anything in his ISO that could be evidence for town!Alexcellent.

Hence I described your treatment as "uncharitable" because in my mind you did imply that there weren't any reasons to townread him, by not bringing them up at all. Especially since in 220 you're talking about the overall ISO being "much worse" than expected. You didn't present it as "there were a few things I don't like" or something similar, you spoke of the ISO in entirety.

[Frogsterking]

a) what are the reasons to trust you? I reread the game and really didn't find any

Because I'm statistically more likely to be telling you the truth.

[GuiltyLion]

Because I'm statistically more likely to be telling you the truth.

that argument applies to literally every player in the game, yet somebody has to be scum. Like yes this is true a priori you're probably town in a vacuum, but then when I look for evidence of you being town vs evidence for each other player being town, and find comparatively less for you than for other players, that's meaningful.

[Frogsterking]

, it does look like in your most recent town games you had a more broad focus on the entire playerlist

The problem is that this observation isn't AI. You're jumping to the conclusion that it must be AI even though you're clearly aware of the dangers of drawing conclusions based off a small sample size.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Alex

Whatever. I can recognize a confbiased Townie when I see one.

[Frogsterking]

Let me know if you feel like listening at some point.

[kutiplz]

Uhhhh what am I supposed to do

[Frogsterking]

Uhhhh what am I supposed to do

Alex is my best scum read so far by a mile. I also am optimistic because I think there is a lot of AI information being posted. If you can find it in your heart to trust me then I believe my vote is good enough to sheep.

[ceejayvinoya]

I'm finally more or less caught up, damn those walls. I wish sara posted more and I don't get the Galron kill either.

I may have skipped some of the longer posts but I got the gist.

VOTE: Frogster

I think GL is town and I tr Alex more than Frog.

[ceejayvinoya]

Arghh on second thoughts some of his posts ping me as towny.

UNVOTE:

Let me sleep on this. At the very least I think scum is in Frog/Alex.

[Alexcellent]

I'm going to be busy-ish over the weekend so may not be around heaps. I'll try and check in and phone post though when possible. In case I'm dead before then though, here's where my head is at with the game:

Kuti is confirmed town, everyone's had more than enough time to CC there and they haven't.

GL is highly likely to be town. There's way too much pro-town content coming from him today, if he's scum then he is very good at it. There are just posts and takes coming from him that are difficult seeing scum make. He was the first to point out that Kuti is mechanically confirmed, he's also willing to give them power over the hammer. Like, these are not things scum are usually comfortable with doing.

Ceejay/Phoenix slot is probably town but is a wildcard. D1 content from Phoenix suggests that he is probably town. There are minor things about his ISO that raise an eyebrow here and there, and there probably is a world where Phoenix and Sara are the scum team. Like I could see maaaybe Phoenix didn't want to kill GL because GL started to go back on his scum read of Phoenix by end of D1, yet Galron was still voting him so maybe he'd be pro-Galron kill. But that's just speculation and it's really hard to say he's scum when he's not the scummiest player here.

Simplest answer is Frogster is probably just scum. His D1 was bad, IMO. Dunn had a fair case against him that he's only just now been addressing, his votes are pretty all over the place and opportunistic. His initial vote on Dunn was weak, his sheep on Phoenix was what it was. I feel like his argument here with GL followed bad logic - the whole expecting him to trust him over statistics is weak, although bad logic isn't inherently scummy, but 201 is off to me because it seemed like GL

was

listening and trying to have a discussion. But it reads like Frog wasn't getting the result he wanted from that interaction so he exited the conversation and moved back to me. Frog's votes also tend to move at interesting times. When GL implied he's open to a Frog elim rather than me, Frog moved to GL, no one joined him on the GL wagon and GL wasn't really budging when they talked, and it looks like he's moved back to me now that there's a fresh face (ceejay) in the game. Everything about Frog's voting pattern smells opportunistic to me.

I obviously

can't

say with 100% certainty that Frog is scum because I straight up don't know, but based on play, he is the scummiest one here and most likely to flip red. If it isn't Frog then I guess Ceejay. If it's GL I'll be incredibly impressed but also very strongly doubt that's the case.

I think it's going to come down to me or Frog, obvs, and I'm highly unlikely to move my vote at this point. If you do elim me, probably just shoot Frog at night time

[Frogsterking]

More parallel communicating from Alex

[GuiltyLion]

Arghh on second thoughts some of his posts ping me as towny.

UNVOTE:

Let me sleep on this. At the very least I think scum is in Frog/Alex.

hey ceejay, good to see ya again

which posts ping you as townie?

[Frogsterking]

Parallel communication (information in clumps rather than serialized) and communicating like giving a monologue (instead of having a back and forth) are exactly what I'm accusing Alex of doing D2 by the way.

[Alexcellent]

That's ironic given you have not made any attempt to communicate with me at all - your entire D2 strat has been to tell everyone that I'm scum whilst handballing your vote between me and GL

[ceejayvinoya]

Arghh on second thoughts some of his posts ping me as towny.

UNVOTE:

Let me sleep on this. At the very least I think scum is in Frog/Alex.

hey ceejay, good to see ya again

which posts ping you as townie?

Hey GuiltyLion

It's not really correct that I called it towny, it's more that his thoughts aligned with mine on 226. I really dislike it when Alex posts in a way that is long but has little content and as Frogster mentioned there is hardly any commitment in it at all. It's so loose and he could just go either side depending on how the game plays out.

On the other hand, Frogster is playing how I would usually play scum: Very passive early on, try to get a handle of the game and then try to get away with it Day 2 onwards. It also annoyed me how he only started casing alex after singling him out via process of elimination on 203 and 204.

[Frogsterking]

It also annoyed me how he only started casing alex after singling him out via process of elimination on 203 and 204.

I don't see how this could possibly annoy you. Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you wrote.

[Frogsterking]

It also annoyed me how he only started casing alex after singling him out via process of elimination on 203 and 204.

I don't see how this could possibly annoy you. Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you wrote.

And on the same note (the rest of 271), it looks like your reasons for scum reading Alex are based directly on his play, whereas your reasons for scum reading me have more to do with you than they do with my play.

[ceejayvinoya]

Arghh this would have been so much easier if you were like this day 1.

I guess I just have to make do.

VOTE: Alex

I guess I shouldn't be too worried about this since kuti could just shoot the other if needed.