Datisi's Café [game over!]

[mastina]

I read some stuff. I think scum bussed ircher and I think titus vote looks like a bus

that being said her refrain of "it's not a slip but ircher is frozen obvscum!!" gets really weird if ircher is scum, imo

I agree with this

Scum certainly did bus Ircher, but don't make the surface-level conclusion that all scum did.

In fact, I'd wager it's far less than you think.
Everyone even yesterday was saying, "Oh, Ircher is being bussed."

That everyone included scum.
What I mean by that is, scum knew that there would be zero towncred from bussing Ircher.
Yet Ircher deliberately let himself die.

Basic logic dictates that if Ircher knew that he was going to die, then he believed that his scumbuddies wouldn't be found easily.

But everyone yesterday said that they felt scum were bussing.

So that means that the scum could be found if on the Ircher wagon.

What does all of this mean, then?

Well, I agree that scum bussed Ircher.
I just don't think that it's all the scum bussing Ircher. I would instead wager 1-2 scum on, and 1-3 scum off. (I know that we're going to run with the assumption that there's 4 scum due to Ircher scumslipping, but I wouldn't discount that he was caught scum for the wrong reason and there's actually 5. It's PROBABLY 4, but not CERTAINLY 4, so I will always have an asterisk next to 4.)

If I had to guess, actually, my first assumption would be only 1 scum on, and the rest off.

Which is another reason why I think that Roden is scum.

[fireisredsir]

VOTE: titus

[mastina]

vote count 1.final

with 21 votes in play, it took 11 to make a decision. day 1 ended.

firing

Ircher [11]:

mastina, Lukewarm, Titus, furtiveglance, Ausuka, RCEnigma, Klick, BlueBloodedToffee, Vivax, PenguinPower, petapan

[HAMMER]

Titus [2]:

Malakittens, fireisredsir

Ydrasse [2]:

Roden, Nero Cain

Vivax [2]:

Andresvmb, Ircher

petapan [1]:

Something_Smart

Roden [1]:

Uncrowned

Malakittens [1]:

jjh927

not voting [1]:

Ydrasse

mod notes

~ i am using a vote counter, let me know if there are any mistakes.
~ this is a mod note.

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Magazin - Oko moje sanjivo

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▶ ❚❚ ──────────────────────────●───  2:53 / 3:04

Oh, this is easy!

Roden is scum.
Fireisredsir COULD be scum.
Those are the only 2 who can be scum off-wagon, so there's 1-2 scum on. 1 if Fire is scum, 2 if Fire is town.

[Vivax]

As long as we achieve 1,275 points out of 1,700 points each day, we will be fine. If mastina is setting hers to 0%, then we need to average 80 points per player to avoid the extra night kills.

Is this just you guessing that this game is a 17:4, or did I miss that info somewhere, or?

Ircher hasn't been on since this. It totally assumes 17/4 whereas I assumed 16/5 like other large games I've seen.

@Vivax would you argue Scum makes this post? Like why the vote there?

Why shouldn't scum make that post or vote Ircher?
Titus argued that Ircher was frozen, FG said Ircher wasn't on, then voted him anyway.

Ausuka said her standard assumption was 16/5

I shot the jailkeeper who sandbagged to the point of doing nothing because my ideal vig kills coinflips, and calling it weird is a big scum tell

[fireisredsir]

i think i believe that claim

[fireisredsir]

earlier i thought vivax could be scum TMIing that the BBT kill was a vig kill, since he didnt seem to understand that me/furtive were talking from the perspective of thinking "this is a weird kill for mafia to make"

but in addition to thinking his play just feels like his towngame, i think its more likely that he is actually just a vig TMIing that BBT kill was a vig kill

[Vivax]

earlier i thought vivax could be scum TMIing that the BBT kill was a vig kill, since he didnt seem to understand that me/furtive were talking from the perspective of thinking "this is a weird kill for mafia to make"

but in addition to thinking his play just feels like his towngame, i think its more likely that he is actually just a vig TMIing that BBT kill was a vig kill

Hard disagree, to me both Peta and Nero were weird kills. Peta makes sense off the info Lukewarm gave, and Nero...idk, maybe him hinting he had some kind of scavenger role?
But scum seeing BBT play like that could assume he was hiding a good PR, and so he did. So why should it be weird, unless you knew the kills?

Kinda surprised Uncrowned isn't dead tbh, gave you quite a bit of fire

[Lukewarm]

(i mean i kkkkkkiiiiiind ooofffff think vivax posts like he knows ircher's alignment but i'm not gonna harp on it right now)

(i mean i kkkkkkiiiiiind ooofffff think vivax posts like he knows ircher's alignment but i'm not gonna harp on it right now)

to touch on this more, if that's the case and theoretically scum!vivax is close to a ML, why do you think he jumps to vote you for that reads list you did or whatever and then switch back to Ircher? i feel like scum would be a little wearier of moving around votes like that, especially for reasons that may seem 'inadequate' to the other players

unless you're suggesting they're both scum in this scenario?

i'm working from the assumption ircher is scum who came back to the thread, saw the massive wagon on him, and probably went into antispew, yes, that's why i said i'm okay with him getting hammered soon

i could explain it more or i could tell you to ctrl + F ircher in vivax's iso and see for yourself

I don't think that Peta was obviously an investigative. I also don't think that he was so widely town read as to be seen as unelimable. I feel like in a town!Vivax, the scum team leave Peta alive night 1 to lead the miselim on Vivax day 2, and then gauge if he looked bad enough on the Vivax flip to be a miselim down the line.

------

Vivax also did that TMI thing.


------

I also felt like Vivax's engagement with me was structured specifically to imply that I was partnered with an Ircher that was getting ready to flip Scum. Like, even if he scum read me, it seems the more natural conclusion was that I was scum latching onto something to push a townie, instead

Pinging Ircher that early could be read as hedging considering the slot seems to act in a rather headstrong way about the reason he's being wagoned so quickly

If you really break this down, he is not saying that I am scum latching onto a townie making a mistake.

He is saying that I am scum "hedging" -- which reads to me like he is trying to set up the idea that after Ircher flips scum, I was also scum just asking to look good on the ircher flip.

He is positioning his read on my Ircher interaction, already with the basis that Ircher is flipping scum.

So you pointed out Ircher's mistake first? I think. But you only voted when Peta had to make you vote. Then it was a joke vote, but...

But you're still voting Ircher are you not? Occasionally popping in to question people who townread you.

Again, specifically trying to make me look worse on a scum!Ircher flip.

I understand Luke, but also that their position wasn‘t an independent one. Lots of pressure to act quickly, it seems.
Time will tell, but I feel there‘s a good roster of hesitating people around Ircher. A town flip would throw my perception around though.

This is scum.

[Lukewarm]

But scum seeing BBT play like that could assume he was hiding a good PR, and so he did. So why should it be weird, unless you knew the kills?

Are you claiming that you had the thought that his play might resemble a townie hiding because they have a good PR, and then you killed him anyways lmao

[Vivax]

I don't do hero shots, I kill those who refuse to play
It's a very obvious vig shot

[Lukewarm]

So why should it be weird, unless you knew the kills?

It's a very obvious vig shot

[fireisredsir]

Hard disagree, to me both Peta and Nero were weird kills. Peta makes sense off the info Lukewarm gave, and Nero...idk, maybe him hinting he had some kind of scavenger role?
But scum seeing BBT play like that could assume he was hiding a good PR, and so he did. So why should it be weird, unless you knew the kills?

peta and nero are both strong and sometimes loud players who often have good reads. they're p common nightkills for scum to make. i don't think either were especially townread but im not really surprised to see them killed, and could mean they were on the right track

[Lukewarm]

Anyways, I would like Vivax to die. He is my strongest scum read by miles.

Also, if you don't wanna sheep my reads, tell yourself you are sheeping Peta's.

[PenguinPower]

I don't do hero shots, I kill those who refuse to play
It's a very obvious vig shot

Maybe learn to holster. Especially in a large where you ability probably has increasing cost to use.

[PenguinPower]

And people tend to be more active later on.

[Vivax]

So why should it be weird, unless you knew the kills?

It's a very obvious vig shot

to townies*

Of course mafia knows it's from a town, but can't say it outright
they still have to make themselves useful, so they'll call it weird

My current take. Because it's the first information they are able to see, unlike the rest of town

P-edit: Always try to follow the guide of some fella called ace when vig. Kill coinflips early. Less wiggle room to push a mislim, and disencourage that type of play.

[Andresvmb]

@Vivax, how much productivity does a shot cost?

[Andresvmb]

Actually, maybe don’t tell me.

[PenguinPower]

P-edit: Always try to follow the guide of some fella called ace when vig. Kill coinflips early. Less wiggle room to push a mislim, and disencourage that type of play.

I think you don't understand how D1 went down.

How many larges how have you played?

[PenguinPower]

Actually, maybe don’t tell me.

Good catch - that was scummy.

[Andresvmb]

I need to think about whether it makes sense to kill a claimed Vig in these circumstances.

[PenguinPower]

Good, now all the PR's are dead, so we can stop giving scum extra kills.

...you really want me to scum read you don't you.

[Vivax]

P-edit: Always try to follow the guide of some fella called ace when vig. Kill coinflips early. Less wiggle room to push a mislim, and disencourage that type of play.

I think you don't understand how D1 went down.

How many larges how have you played?

Enough
But let's consider this: The ones who called it weird either don't reply (FG) or believe it (Fire)
While Luke goes on attack mode after not commenting, supposedly having no info whatsoever of how many extra kills scum had. At the very least, you'd have reason to assume Luke has an agenda or ulterior motive here.

[PenguinPower]

PenguinPower’s vote for Ydrasse I think on page 5

was literally to create equal competing wagons.

Hi - I'm penguin.

[mastina]

In the Titus/Vivax binary, then:

VOTE: Vivax

Titus COULD be scum, but Roden IS scum.

And Vivax is hard-town to me.

Everyone off the Ircher wagon except Roden, Fire, and Malakittens are hard-town to me. Malakittens is not locked, but still far more likely town than not.

Vivax is always town here, as are many members of the Ircher wagon.

While Titus is in the remainder which COULD be scum, it'd be a departure from her norm and thus is less likely.

Vivax v Titus as a dilemma thus has a high chance of being town-town and I therefore refuse to accept it.
IF there’s scum in there, it's Titus, but she's not the most likely to be scum.