TM2012: White Flag Mafia (Game Over)

[Equinox]

Vote Count 1.18

Amrun (4) - Johhog, Captain Haddock, Regfan, Llamarble
Thestatusquo (3) - singersigner, Cogito Ergo Sum, Zachrulez
Captain Haddock (2) - Amrun, Bub Bidderskins
Cogito Ergo Sum (1) - Benmage
Johhog (1) - SocioPath

Not Voting (2) - Thestatusquo, Matias

With 13 alive, it's 7 to lynch.

The deadline is Monday, May 21, 2012, at 12:00 AM EDT (UTC-4).

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Why do you think that TSQ is scum?

Shea lurks as scum + I think him picking White Flag is suspect + he's pretty much responding to the continued pressure as I'd expect lurkerscum to respond.

Pet theory: he's less motivated because benmage pushed for benmage-Llamarble crossdefending pre-game clearly implying (or quite possibly outright stating) that shea was the weak link in the scum team.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

P.S. shea-benmage-llamarble 2012

[Llamarble]

Hey Bub, why would your team send you out as town?

I'm stuck in a massive town losing streak. Due to the tigerpocalypse it's hard to tell how large exactly, but I think it's 6-8 town losses in a row. I just can't seem to figure out how to hunt for scum. I don't get lynched, because I've learned how play "townie" (hence my much higher scum win percentage), but I just can't find scum.

Right now I'm on a mafia break, and when I get back into a mafia game, I want my town game to be better than it is now. Is there any hope for me?

[Llamarble]

Blah, my reads keep changing every time I read through.
My time for this game is about to dropoff a lot, and I haven't found somebody who I'm confident WILL flip scum yet.
I'll do my best to check in and reread one person a day though / comment on what's topical.

[Llamarble]

Note: I'll be back to normal early D2.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Confess and/or sheep me?

[Amrun]

But there is a good point in there about Matias somewhere? If so, I'd like you to point it out, because I dont' see it.

The point about him fueling suspicion about Haddock without committing to it. I see it as a valid point.

I still have a town read on Matias for overall play, but I can see Haddock's position coming from a pro-town POV.

How is that a valid point? How do you see what he said as being accurate?

Fanning suspicion without it being noticed actually has some scum motivation. It's weighed against the probability that Matias' attempt to analyze me was genuine. (For this specific instance I find the latter the more likely possibility.)

I agree that fanning suspicion etc. is a scumtell, but not that Matias actually did that.

Why do you think that TSQ is scum?

Shea lurks as scum + I think him picking White Flag is suspect + he's pretty much responding to the continued pressure as I'd expect lurkerscum to respond.

Pet theory: he's less motivated because benmage pushed for benmage-Llamarble crossdefending pre-game clearly implying (or quite possibly outright stating) that shea was the weak link in the scum team.

I'm interested in a lot of this. Can you provide meta of shea lurking as scum (and any countermeta), for reference? Why do you think him picking White Flag is suspect?

And as for your pet theory, why do you think benmage and llamarble's behavior backs that up? Can you show me?

[Llamarble]

If I sheep anybody it'll be my teammates and maybe Regfan, but when I say sheep I mean read the person they want me to off and vote if it seems reasonable.

CES' pet theory is pretty wat.
I know TSQ in real life, so I doubt he'd lurk this much if we were scumbuddies.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm interested in a lot of this. Can you provide meta of shea lurking as scum (and any countermeta), for reference? Why do you think him picking White Flag is suspect?

See this post + Glrok told me he does. Him picking White Flag is suspect because I wouldn't really expect him to play in this one (also not to the extent that they'd pick it #2 at the draft) whereas it does seem to fit Ellibereth and Porochaz to a lesser extent. Ellibereth definitely prefers town, Poro I think does too and shea, if he doesn't prefer scum, at least is better at scum, so it would make sense for shea to grab this game if it had a scum PM.

And as for your pet theory, why do you think benmage and llamarble's behavior backs that up? Can you show me?

They have each other in their probtown lists, mostly.

CES' pet theory is pretty wat.
I know TSQ in real life, so I doubt he'd lurk this much if we were scumbuddies.

Then you'd also know he can be kind of an ass.

P.S. if this lurking is by choice, he's scum anyway, so I don't know why you're making that type of argument.

[Bub Bidderskins]

How did you get to that conclusion? I see a lot of points brought up against Amrun.

Yes, and most of them are about that comment she made. Here's the problem I have with the Amrun wagon. Amrun has been fairly scummy all game long. Not nearly as scummy as Johhog or Haddock IMO, but still on the scum side of the spectrum. She was like the third or fourth suspect for a lot of people, but she sort of flew under the radar a little bit. Then, all of a sudden, she makes what I find to be a legitimate comment about not wanting to reveal some info from her QT. There are several legit reasons to do this, but all of a sudden, people are jumping on that as if its scummy in some way.

It's not that Amrun is scummy, its just that the wagon is even scummier. I mean, look:

Amrun (1) - Johhog

24 hours later...

Amrun (4) - Johhog, Captain Haddock, Regfan, Llamarble

Within a day Amrun went from one vote to four. And yes, some of that is based off "a lack of stated scum reads", but she had "a lac of stated scum reads" before that. I really don't like how this wagon ballooned out of nowhere.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Hey Bub, why would your team send you out as town?

I'm stuck in a massive town losing streak. Due to the tigerpocalypse it's hard to tell how large exactly, but I think it's 6-8 town losses in a row. I just can't seem to figure out how to hunt for scum. I don't get lynched, because I've learned how play "townie" (hence my much higher scum win percentage), but I just can't find scum.

Right now I'm on a mafia break, and when I get back into a mafia game, I want my town game to be better than it is now. Is there any hope for me?

Because I hate theme shit.

[Llamarble]

Well as for the suddenness of the wagon, I for one definitely liked the idea of making it 3 votes in a row simply to help smash things up / push things forward. Had there not been any other votes on Amrun, I'd probably not have voted her at that exact point, but I've been wary of her for a while because she just hasn't been as aggressive/dynamic as usual.

[Benmage]

Whats the point of this question?

Are you really asking me why I'm quizzing about seemingly contradictory information? Especially when the original post wherein you explained why you picked White Flag was rambling and contradictory?

Contradiction?

Where does it list the order in which our requests were submitted?

[Benmage]

And as for your pet theory, why do you think benmage and llamarble's behavior backs that up? Can you show me?

They have each other in their probtown lists, mostly.

ScumCES fears the power of town voting bloc.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

ScumCES fears nothing*.

*except chamber

Where does it list the order in which our requests were submitted?

This is where I'm getting my info from.

[Regfan]

There are 13 players in this game, of which three are scum. The chance of TSQ being scum is completely random, since we have 0 reads on him at all. Do you consider a 23% chance to be reasonable?

This IS a good point.

I don't agree, the fact that he's active elsewhere but is lurking here increases the chances he's mafia and doesn't mean we have 0 reads on him.

Yes, and most of them are about that comment she made. Here's the problem I have with the Amrun wagon. Amrun has been fairly scummy all game long. Not nearly as scummy as Johhog or Haddock IMO, but still on the scum side of the spectrum. She was like the third or fourth suspect for a lot of people, but she sort of flew under the radar a little bit. Then, all of a sudden, she makes what I find to be a legitimate comment about not wanting to reveal some info from her QT. There are several legit reasons to do this, but all of a sudden, people are jumping on that as if its scummy in some way.

It's not that Amrun is scummy, its just that the wagon is even scummier. Within a day Amrun went from one vote to four. And yes, some of that is based off "a lack of stated scum reads", but she had "a lac of stated scum reads" before that. I really don't like how this wagon ballooned out of nowhere.

No, they're not about the comment she made at all. The only person that used that comment as part of their reasoning was Socio and he didn't even vote her for it. The whole bandwagon or votes on her are for her not-scumhunting given the massive amount of posts she has alongside with her not mentioning her primary or well only suspect at all since her vote on him at day start. That's the reasoning that Haddock presented.

[Benmage]

ScumCES fears nothing*.

*except chamber

Where does it list the order in which our requests were submitted?

This is where I'm getting my info from.

Like I said we got the message from zoraster. Everyone gave individual preference. Then bam TBone said we has 1,2,4,5. Never made a:
This
This
This

like list.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Oh bleh, that's true; a bunch of teams ended up not submitting lists.

[Captain Haddock]

I have lots of townreads, and several other reads that are leaning scummy in a more slight way,

but no one jumps out at me as much as Haddock. I have been observing Haddock and seen nothing to dissuade me

Well why have you let Bub push the lynch for you?

They're

semi-valid criticisms that apply much more strongly to about 5 other people in the game

. What's the difference between me and them? They're not attacking Haddock.

No they're not, no one has made as many posts as you and they have suspects even if they parked their vote. But try and back that up anyway.
375, 387

Answer this.

[Amrun]

What is there to answer? Those are stupid side snipes that mean nothing. I haven't allowed Bub to do anything. I commented on his comments about you, disagreed with part and agreed with another part. Until just now, you've continued to talk about the same thing that was just as terrible and dumb as when I first said it was terrible and dumb. I was observing you to see if you'd widen your net, and if so, where. You chose to widen it to your next biggest attacker. I'm happy with my vote.

Llamarble - you've seen me fake aggression and dynamism that fooled you. You know that I can. I have plenty of town games that don't start off as aggressive, especially when distracted as I have been with finals and moving across the country. The aggression will come with conviction. More interesting is why you attempt to use this as a scumtell when it isn't - you claim I can fake a lot, and have SEEN me fake this exact thing, so why would I NOT do it as scum now with all these eyes on me?

[Thestatusquo]

Wait, for real. Since when do I lurk as scum? Please post examples. You can't just say things in an attempt to get someone true that have no objective basis in reality.

Vote: Ces

[Matias]

...do you have NOTHING else to say?

[Matias]

Just give us a full read list, please.

[Thestatusquo]

Why in the fuck would I be at all obligated to do that?