TM2012: Scummies 2011.5 - Let the credits roll!

[MagnaofIllusion]

We're done

VOTE: KK

I'll be voting Magua the second he hits L-1.

Claim anything of note (including final thoughts) before I see that fact and hammer you if you aren't scum Magua.

[MagnaofIllusion]

For the record he is at 3 votes now.

I see 2 more in thread and

[]==========
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[Lost Butterfly]

Day 2, Votecount 7

Magua (3) - DeasVail, xRECKONERx, Quilford

Kublai Khan (1) - MagnaofIllusion

Not voting

(7): BBmolla, Magua, T-Bone, theamatuer, hitogoroshi, Zar, Kublai Khan

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch or no-lynch.

Deadline:

June 3rd at 4:01pm (EDT)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2012-06-03 16:01:00)

Countdown to the end of First Half Judging

: (expired on 2012-05-24 16:01:00)

[Zar]

VOTE MAGUA

[Magua]

MoI, Regfan says if you hammer before he can reread the game this weekend and give his reads, he'll eat your babies.

In case it matters: To Scummies Group 1B, I voted to give the scummy y'all decided on to the person y'all decided to give it to in the QT.

To my current Scummies Group, I'm voting to give the scummy to the person I said is my #1 choice in message #13 in the QT.

Will write longer reply now.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MoI, Regfan says if you hammer before he can reread the game this weekend and give his reads, he'll eat your babies.

Tell Regfan he's had 6 days to be reading the game. Why just now is he interested in re-reading?

[Magua]

Magua: I will have a decent townread on Reck if you flip town, yes. Zar is my weakest townread, so I guess I'd look at him. I'm not quite sure who else though. Why did you want to know?

Because I'm town, so incredibly uninterested in your "If Magua flips scum" opinions that I know are pointless, and incredibly interested in your "If Magua flips town" opinions. Figured this would be obvious. =P

I think that the dueling behavior by the slots (both calling each other Town / defending the other / trying to reduce their wagons) is more likely to come from partners in this game. Yes, it is possible that the Gaoth / Magua slot as Town just honestly made a poor choice of words in initial post, flaked, and Magua bit big-time on the WhiteKnighting Ajax did when he replaced in. But at a gut level I would put those odds at 80-20 in favor of partnership.

This is essentially what happened, though I didn't 'white-knight' Ajax so much as I thought that the reason some people were giving for voting him was stupid and, by extension, scummy.

Eg, I never questioned yours nor Quilford's reasons for voting him, because they weren't based on that one thing that I still don't consider to be a slip.

Other stuff: You don't like how I changed on hito. *shrugs* Had Ajax flipped town, I would've been all over hito today like something on something-that-it's-usually-on. But after his claim it was pretty obvious that Ajax wasn't going to flip town, so I re-evaluated. That is the be-all and end-all of the story. I could go on more about what I didn't like about what he did in the 1B judging QT, but as I don't think he's scum, it's not particularly helpful, so I won't.

@Magua - Why do you heavily rely on meta to both condemn other players and defend yourself? Are you suggesting with these arguments that players (including yourself) are incapable of changing their play style? Personally I'd like to think I change my playstyle from game to game. I refer to posts 460, 462, 464, 465, 503, etc. etc. Quite a bit talk of meta.

Because outside of inexperienced newbies, meta is the only reliable tell. Relatively certain I've posted this repeatedly in Mafia Discussion.

If you think that everyone can change their meta flawlessly, then I'm very eager to hear how you think any scumtells anywhere are valid since everyone can change their meta to not include them.

Tell Regfan he's had 6 days to be reading the game. Why just now is he interested in re-reading?

He has read the game. He wants to re-read to get his final words in.

----------------------------------

I think both scum are in (Zar, Kublai Khan, BBmolla). I know you (being MoI) are not a fan of BBmolla-scum, but I'm not seeing the reasons that you're seeing.

theamatuer has been creeping up my townreads for the last few days. I know that my "bad play is pro-town" metaread can be wrong (as seen on MaguaofIllusion), but still feel it strongly in this case. Quilford, MoI, hito are strong town from play, T-Bone I'm still going with Regfan's meta townread, Deas I feel is town, and Reckoner...mmmmeeeeeh....just continue to feel Reckoner would play stronger scum, I suppose.

Left to my own devices, I'd vote Zar, so I will.

VOTE: Zar

OMGIS.

[theamatuer]

vote: zar

I more or less agree Magua's analysis. I think theres only one scum among the three though

[MagnaofIllusion]

This is essentially what happened, though I didn't 'white-knight' Ajax so much as I thought that the reason some people were giving for voting him was stupid and, by extension, scummy.

No, basically I was saying he WhiteKnighted your slot when Gaoth accumulated some votes and you ate it up like a Newb.

Eg, I never questioned yours nor Quilford's reasons for voting him, because they weren't based on that one thing that I still don't consider to be a slip.

Meh, the fact that you don’t consider scum-slips valid matters little to me given I do think they tend to be valid (as evidenced by Ajax being Obv-scum due to said slip among other things).

Because outside of inexperienced newbies, meta is the only reliable tell. Relatively certain I've posted this repeatedly in Mafia Discussion.

And pretty clearly you are wrong. Yes, I know this is MD material but I just wanted to take the chance to gloat. Yes, I’m being a jack-ass!

He has read the game. He wants to re-read to get his final words in.

This ‘turn of events’ is hardly unexpected. You’ve pretty much been the default lynch based on yesterday since the Day started. Why hasn’t Regfan been spending the last 6 days preparing his ‘last words’?

I think both scum are in (Zar, Kublai Khan, BBmolla). I know you (being MoI) are not a fan of BBmolla-scum, but I'm not seeing the reasons that you're seeing.

Sooo … why not KK as opposed to Zar?

And if you’d like to point out why my ‘BB isn’t scum’ which I posted a summary of in my post to Deas re: Ajax / yourself feel free. Otherwise I really don’t see reconsidering my position if you do flip Town.

[BBmolla]

VOTE: Magua

L-1

[MagnaofIllusion]

I more or less agree Magua's analysis. I think theres only one scum among the three though

Stop skipping my questions to you TheAm.

You are starting to annoy me.

Why do you think there is only 1 scum among BB / KK / Zar?

Who is the other scum BESIDES that person?

What specifically did you want to 'check' with an Investigation role?

[MagnaofIllusion]

VOTE: Magua

L-1

Grade A content BB.

Who is Magua's partner?

[BBmolla]

VOTE: Magua

L-1

Grade A content BB.

Who is Magua's partner?

dontknowifsarcasm.jpg

KK probably. DV/Zar/theam are secondary options. The reason I don't want a KK lynch today is if Magua is town I need to COMPLETELY re-evaluate reads.

Basically town as I see it is Me, Reck, MoI, Quil, T-Bone, and Hito. I just have to figure out who amongst the lesser reads is also town.

[hitogoroshi]

To my current Scummies Group, I'm voting to give the scummy to the person I said is my #1 choice in message #13 in the QT.

I am also in this group, and I would like to say that while this isn't the worst idea you should instead do what I said in post 20. Just trust me when I say it's the best, even if it seems janky.

I don't really like KK as scum unless by some serious shenanigans Magua is town. Part of it is just this spat with MoI, which seems out of character for a scumbag looking at a long, long game, I guess. And part of it is this:

To elaborate on this quickly: I think it's very likely one of Magua and KK is scum. I really don't think both are, and that if the first of that pair we lynch flips scum, we should look off-wagon before looking at the other one.

We know Fonz was town; for all we know he might've even been killed for this thought. (Who's the one who brought it up? I think MoI but don't remember)

So if Magua flips scum, I'm feelin theam or zar. Gonna poke around which.

Hey, can I be hammerkeeper since I wanna do a bit more and Ajax --> Magua is my baby?

[BBmolla]

Magua Scum implies KK town hito?

[hitogoroshi]

That's what I'm feeling when I think about it. It's not the same tier of strength as some of my other reads, but it's there.

[hitogoroshi]

Hmm. If Magua is scum, then Zar 11 is a pretty bright mark on his record. Ajax/Gaoth-Magua/Zar would be pretty weird. Not impossible because Zar hopped on BBm later and called Gaoth a dead end, but still.

And theam called out BBmolla for 'shamelessly bandwagoning' Gaoth without a mention of Gaoth himself. Ajax's vote on theam doesn't have much blood or sweat in it; he wasn't seriously pushing it as a wagon. Even admits that he pitched a softball and only voted when theam didn't swing for it.

So I think on a Magua scumflip theam might actually be my top scumread. Need to check in to a couple of things, though.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I don't really like KK as scum unless by some serious shenanigans Magua is town. Part of it is just this spat with MoI, which seems out of character for a scumbag looking at a long, long game, I guess.

I understand your thinking on this but don’t necessarily agree. KK as scum isn’t really in position to do anything but go toe to toe with me. I called him scum Day 1 while lynching Ajax. Clearly appeasing me by calling me Town isn’t going to work so his only options are to

1. Ignore me (not a good idea as scum)
2. Fight with me

Now that being said – what about my ‘KK case’ as presented do you think isn’t good (independent of the whole Fonz / Magua element, of course)?

We know Fonz was town; for all we know he might've even been killed for this thought. (Who's the one who brought it up? I think MoI but don't remember)

I was the one who originally theorized this. I’ve thought about this and honestly don’t think it is probably true.

Here’s what I’ve concluded.

1. Scum have some way of monkeying with the process.
2. The process ends BEFORE a lynch occurs.
3. Scum have to be able to do said monkeying BEFORE a lynch occurs.
4. The only way this can happen is if scum have daytalk.

So I’m really more of the mind Fonz was killed to kill off the Best Newbie Award (which scum obviously know what it did).

Hey, can I be hammerkeeper since I wanna do a bit more and Ajax --> Magua is my baby?

I’m fine with that. I’ll keep my vote parked on KK-scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hmm. If Magua is scum, then Zar 11 is a pretty bright mark on his record. Ajax/Gaoth-Magua/Zar would be pretty weird. Not impossible because Zar hopped on BBm later and called Gaoth a dead end, but still.

Yeah, I tend to agree.

That said that post makes Zar far more likely to be scum if Magua does flip Town since Zar is attacking someone preemptively for making a 'bad vote' on the wagon Zar was also on.

[theamatuer]

I more or less agree Magua's analysis. I think theres only one scum among the three though

Stop skipping my questions to you TheAm.

You are starting to annoy me.

Why do you think there is only 1 scum among BB / KK / Zar?

Who is the other scum BESIDES that person?

What specifically did you want to 'check' with an Investigation role?

Because I think theres scum somewhere else.

I have an idea, but I'd need to check to be certain.
Hence I want the investigation. I believe I've found a certain scum, but problem is theres not much evidence, and the person is good enough to discredit and ignore any accusations or cases I make against him.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Because I think theres scum somewhere else.

I have an idea, but I'd need to check to be certain.
Hence I want the investigation. I believe I've found a certain scum, but problem is theres not much evidence, and the person is good enough to discredit and ignore any accusations or cases I make against him.

Well maybe you should voice your suspect. Who knows, scum might Nightkill you tonight to silence your epic levels of scum-hunting.

Yes, engage full on sarcasm blasters for that statement.

[hitogoroshi]

Now that being said – what about my ‘KK case’ as presented do you think isn’t good (independent of the whole Fonz / Magua element, of course)?

Well, being honest, it's mostly just that I'm really confident in Magua and I'm not really happy with the KK/Magua/Ajax buddy matrix. It's something to look at but not my top.

Looking at your case, I agree that KK<-->Ajax is wonky, I disagree in that I don't think his interactions with you are that scummy (seems a bit like a repeat of you v Fonz, to be honest), and re: his “There is no benefit to giving reads from your Teammates” stance, I was really skeevy about it at first but I think I understand why town-KK would be mad if he thought you were 'hiding behind your teammates reads'.

[Magua]

Scumslips aren't valid. Town slip just as much as scum do, if not moreso. If someone "scumslips" and actually flips scum, that doesn't imply anything unless there's a statistical significance, which to the best of my knowledge there's not.

(For the same reason that you can't say, "Ajax was logged into mafiascum.net, Ajax flipped scum, therefore logging into mafiascum.net is a scumtell")

Blah blah blah MD territory though.

This ‘turn of events’ is hardly unexpected. You’ve pretty much been the default lynch based on yesterday since the Day started. Why hasn’t Regfan been spending the last 6 days preparing his ‘last words’?

His weekend drinking binge had something to do with that. Know you're impatient to hammer me, but for the love of Christ keep your britches on.

Sooo … why not KK as opposed to Zar?

Because I think Zar is simply more likely to be scum (see also: me voting theamatuer over Ajax yesterday). He has the motivation to want to be scum on a team of people who do not seem to want to be scum. His posting has been voluminous but not particularly analytic. Of everyone, he seems the one that is most trying to blend in and not rock the boat, aside from T-Bone who I think is town because Regfan thinks he's town.

As for BB: You are so free to not flip your position on BB when I flip town. Fuck, I thought you were town in NY145, so look how accurate I am. If I was sure BB was scum, I'd be voting him. I'm not sure. It's PoE that's saying that he's one of the likely scum, but I would definitely lynch Zar before him, and would probably lynch KK before him.

Incredibly dislike the setup by BBmolla and hito that one of (Magua, Kublai Khan) has to be scum. In hito's case, it just seems lazy (hito has read me as scum in every game we've been in together where he's been town (which is I think, now, 2)) and he's got too many blinders on him already being right. BB's case I'm less sure on, though I agree with the town list in 537 with the exception of himself.

I am also in this group, and I would like to say that while this isn't the worst idea you should instead do what I said in post 20. Just trust me when I say it's the best, even if it seems janky.

I believe I am now seeing the undertone of what you're saying, which I had not seen before. I have switched my vote to the person you suggested.

I believe I have the town motivation for why you would do this. I'm lacking the scum motivation, because if the person you are suggesting dies with the award, there's enough people in the group to make it bad for you, so I'm going to trust that my town motivation read of what you're suggesting is right.

Also, you should really be doing your analysis of when I flip town, not scum.

~ Fixed

[Magua]

@Mod:

If you could fix the broken quote tags, that'd be great.

[Magua]

Alright, so I've got Regfan's reads.

Now, the

modkilling

paraphrasing begins.

- Reckoner
* RVS interaction between Reckoner and Ajax doesn't seem like partners. Asking for what Ajax claimed doesn't read like partner.
* Reck's push on Quilford without commenting on Ajax in 65 is scummy
* 137 points against Reckoner/Zar partnership

- theamatuer
* 151 points against theamatuer/BBmolla partnership
* Reg hates the "he's the counterwagon to a scum lynch, he must be town" line of thought; still thinks theamatuer is town.
* theamateur's post about wanting the investigation, because he has someone he thinks is scum and needs the evidence is TOWN, in all upper case letters even.

- DeasVail
* DV's vote on Hito does not read as scum-motivated. Regfan is specific to say that he doesn't agree with DV's vote on Hito, but that it's specifically an angle-of-attack that he doesn't think DV-scum would attempt.
* Regfan's got a sentence here I'm trying to translate, but it's taking me a bit. I think the essence of it is, "Hito overexplains why he's inactive; DV calls it a scumtell." Regfan calls this -- DV calling that a scumtell -- a towntell. Regfan also goes on to say that it's a very common scumtell on Westeroes, and he finds Zar not mentioning it to be very odd.
* DV's "Scum try to mislynch me" reads town, especially in comparison to NY145.

- BBmolla
* BBmolla defends Zar's thing as being a joke (Regfan notes that Zar's thing *was* a joke, apparently a meta-joke from Westeros, the other board where he and Zar have played); however, he doesn't comment on anything else. This reads as possible partner-defense or assistance.
* 66 looks like a preface for being able to take a variety of positions later (T-Bone being scummy, Gaoth being scummy, Ajax being just dumb, etc), and he keeps his vote on Quilford while the wagon forms on Ajax.
* #65/66 point against a BBmolla/Reckoner partnership; too blatant
* Jumping onto Gaoth in 97[/url] when Reckoner unvotes Quilford is super scummy.
* Starting with [post]155, the back and forth of posts between BBmolla and Kublai Khan is a point against them being partners
* BBmolla's reaction to being voted by Zar in 189 is town.

- Hito
* Ajax links Hito to read a specific game as a point of self-meta; Regfan reads this as Hito-town because scum don't try to appease their partner, or get them to unvote in that way.
* Ajax's votes on Hito also is a towntell
* Repeating over and over that "If I die, hang Magua" is apparently a towntell in Reg's mind.

- T-Bone
* Just overall reads T-Bone as genuine and town, finds his play here similar to his overall town meta
* 242, and specifically MoS pointing out that thing that I (Magua) still think is stupid, screams town.

- Quilford
* Super detailed case on Ajax => super town.
* Ajax's votes on Quilford also is a towntell

- Zar
* Fishes around for a possible Gaoth counterwagon in 90. Regfan notes that this also points against a Zar-BBmolla partnership.
* There's another part of Regfan's post here that I'm trying to translate. It's in regards to Zar's 189, and seems to center around Zar attacks BBmolla for a contradiction between a comment BBmolla made about scum *bussing other scum*, and then a comment BBmolla made in response to theamatuer about *buddying town*.
* Also in 189, he attacks BBmolla for a vote on Gaoth when he himself was voting Gaoth.
* 191 also points against Zar/BBmolla partnership. In addition, part of Zar's attack on BBmolla is for lurking, though Regfan has a distinct memory of looking at the activity overview at the time and BBmolla was, or was near, to top poster.
* 241 points away from a Zar/theamatuer partnership.
* 480/481 is terrible. Westeros has enough scum bussing on it that for Zar to clear everyone who got attacked by Ajax is completely out of meta and terrible to boot.
* 519 reads like the very stereotypical FoS partner, vote town. There's no conclusion on Kublai Khan like there was on other people, he pulls all the scummy stuff that Kublai Khan has done, but then votes me.

Things Regfan wants:

@T-Bone:

Why did you have a townread on Zar in 110?

@Reckoner:

Why did you hate it when MoI called you town without an explanation, but not when Hito did it?

@Kublai Khan:

Why did you vote for theamatuer in 153 when Quilford was "scum" and theamatuer was possibly just really bad town?

@DeasVail:

You say you have a reason that Zar is town. Why?