NY 160: Terrible Melodrama Mafia (Game Over)


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Post Post #475 (ISO) » Sat Nov 17, 2012 9:14 am

Post by DeasVail »

Vote Count 2.02


Nero Cain (3)- Plan B, N, Untrod Tripod
F-16_Fighting_Falcon (2)- JacobSavage, Gentlemen Bastards
Toon Fighter (1)- 4nxi3ty
Untrod Tripod (1)- Empking
N (1)- Toon Fighter
4nxi3ty (1)- RedCoyote

Not voting: Nero Cain, F-16_Fighting_Falcon, adorkable

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

V/LA


Nero Cain

Deadline


29th November, 6pm AEDT
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Post Post #476 (ISO) » Sat Nov 17, 2012 9:31 am

Post by Empking »

Unvote, Vote: ToonFighter
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Post Post #477 (ISO) » Sat Nov 17, 2012 5:51 pm

Post by RedCoyote »

I don't necessarily agree that 4nx is likely town because of that, but I also don't feel all that comfortable with my scumreads right now.

Unvote
;
vote: F-16_Fighting_Falcon
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Post Post #478 (ISO) » Sat Nov 17, 2012 8:02 pm

Post by F-16_Fighting_Falcon »

Starting off at the first few pages, Senjai reads town to me. His curt answers on the question of it being the first page and his blatant admission that he wanted to prolong the RVS stage definitely come from a town mindset. I'd expect scum to be a little more agreeable regarding RVS. Piggy's comes off as scummy because she doesn't seem to understand why Senjai is towntelling. Although we now know Piggy is town, so looking at it from that perspective, Nero Cain's comes off as even more scummy to me since he questions both Piggy and Senjai. While questioning is good, it is the motivation behind those questions that can come off as town or scum. In this case, the fact that Nero Cain isn't committing to a position but rather equivocating on which side to take is scummy. This leaves him flexible to choose whichever side the wind blows.

The following exchange between Piggy and Plan B makes Plan B look good and Piggy look bad, with Piggy's reasoning for a Senjai town-read relatively weak. Interesting that N popped up just at that moment to ask who is lurking. It was only page 3 but it struck me as somewhat self-conscious. I like Demon Care's vote on Nero Cain at that point especially as I was reading Nero as leaning scum at that point.

Nero's vote on Senjai was bad - voted just because Senjai asked for it. Toon Fighter's accusation of Piggy chainsaw defending Senjai was poorly thought out as well. JacobSavage's "Piggy is nervous town" seems like a lot of whiteknighting. How would JacobSavage know that Piggy is "nervous town" as opposed to "nervous scum." Looks more like an excuse to have a townread on a likely mislynch. My scumreads so far: ToonFighter, NeroCain, JacobSavage.

Coming to page 3, Plan B's questioning of JacobSavage was right on the mark. Add him to the list of townreads along with Senjai. Senjai's is very pro-town. His aggression in trying to figure out who scum is on his wagon reads completely as town. ToonFighter conitnues using bad arguments and JacobSavage isn't able to articulate what about Piggy he finds townish. He calls Piggy town because Piggy is jumpy - again bad reasoning. Plan B's , I agree with. Doom's post reads null.

The first thing that made me question my scumread on JacobSavage is DoomYoshi's questioning of him on page 4 - but I'll chalk it down to distancing at this point. JacobSavage's is terrible. A lot of manufactured reads that don't really make any sense. The fact that Nero Cain considers multi-posting a scumtell is hilarious.

Liking page 5 JacobSavage wagon. I find it funny that Nero Cain defends Jacob Savage and asks why he is scummy for calling someone "nervous town." The reason is that Jacob savage couldn't have known for a fact that Piggy is town and he also uses scumtells like being jumpy as towntells. Jacob should probably have been lynched last Day. Doom's seems like distancing. No vote for JacobSavage, just incredulity at his posts and a general air of pretend-antagonism. Jacob Savage was at L-3 and the Piggywagon on page came at a very opportune time and looks like a potential counterwagon to JacobSavage. If Jacob flips scum, some of the latecomers to the Piggywagon should be examined more closely.

I like catching up to long games half at a time. This is my analysis of the first 10 pages. I'll post analysis on the next 10 pages and probably vote then.

I just looked back and realized that GentlemenBastards replaced Senjai. So far:

1) GentlemenBastards - Town
2) Plan B - Town

3) N - Null
4) 4nxi3ty - Null
5) Empking - Null
6) RedCoyote - Null
7) Untrod Tripod - Null
8) adorkable - Null

9) Toon Fighter - Scum
10) Nero Cain - Scum
11) JacobSavage - Scum

I'll fill in the null reads after I finish the next 10 pages.
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Post Post #479 (ISO) » Sat Nov 17, 2012 8:45 pm

Post by F-16_Fighting_Falcon »

The fact that Doom chose to vote Piggy on Page 11 as opposed to JacobSavage is telling especially since Doom made a show arguing with JacobSavage in the previous pages before it seemed like JacobSavage was going to get lynched.

DoomYoshi's is awesome.

DoomYoshi wrote:Ok, Plan B, but
if JS flips scum, I'm going to fos you hardcore.
[
Emphasis mine
]

So I reread N and Nero Cain again. I know I just said NC was the better wagon, but I've changed my mind. N hasn't really said much of anything, except for the awkward call out of Cletus. I am still watching NC though, I want to see how he reacts now that he has time to calm down.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: N


So, here DoomYoshi is trying to link Plan B to his scumbuddy JacobSavage by saying that conditional upon JacobSavage's flip, he will FOS PlanB. So, this is bussing/distancing combined with making someone else look guilty if the scumbuddy flips scum.

JacobSavage is scum. He needs rope.

PlanB's response is absolutely spot on:

Plan B wrote:
DoomYoshi wrote:Ok, Plan B, but if JS flips scum, I'm going to fos you hardcore.

Alright?

I feel like I just got threatened that if something I don't believe will happen happens, you'll pummel me with a pillow.

Why not just advocate for a JacobSavage lynch if you feel so strongly about him and the potential connection to me?


Seriously, why is JacobSavage still alive?

Long quote-stripe walls from RedCoyote - hate reading such posts while catching up. But let's see: Lot of agreement betwen PlanB and RedC though nothing suspicious. RedC is still null, plan B is still town.

No idea why Empking has JacobSavage as very town. I still doubt Emp-scum would so blatantly buddy his buddy - but then again, that may be what he wants us to think. And he votes obvtown Senjai - yeah, I am not liking Empking. Could be a chainsaw defense.

Why is N worried about quickhammers on Day 1? (Post ) - Slightly scummy.

GentlemenBastards wall post looks good and re-inforces my townread on Senjai. It seems to have come from a town motivation. I disagree with the read on Jacob though. I hate making reads based on the timing of posts so we'll just have to agree to disagree there.

That's it for Day 1. Day 2, going over GB's post:

GB, you say that Doom's makes Jacob looks town but it could just as well be a distancing tactic. Same with . Overall, I get the opposite feeling - that DoomYoshi didn't really want Jacob lynched but was trying to distace himself.

Pages 18, 19, GB worries about me posting in other games but not here. The key point here is that it takes much more time to catch up when you replace in to a game and need to read huge masses of text. However, if you were playing a game from the start, it is a lot easier to respond to a few new posts that crop up after your last post which is why I've been active elsewhere. This game was always on the back of my mind. I simply tend to procrastinate on large tasks. It feels great to finally have caught up and be able to talk to people in the present rather than go back into the past.

Anyways, I think scum are between JacobSavage, ToonFighter, and NeroCain for reasons already mentioned.

VOTE: JacobSavage
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Post Post #480 (ISO) » Sat Nov 17, 2012 9:06 pm

Post by N »

F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:Interesting that N popped up just at that moment to ask who is lurking. It was only page 3 but it struck me as somewhat self-conscious.

That's not what I was trying to get at. I was trying to point out that it was only page 3 and it was a bit early to be calling everybody lurkers. Also, I don't like to way you phrased this; it makes it look like that was all I had to say, which isn't true at all.

F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:1) GentlemenBastards - Town
2) Plan B - Town

3) N - Null
4) 4nxi3ty - Null
5) Empking - Null
6) RedCoyote - Null
7) Untrod Tripod - Null
8) adorkable - Null

9) Toon Fighter - Scum
10) Nero Cain - Scum
11) JacobSavage - Scum

Are these in order of towniest to scummiest, or are they just three groups?

F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:Why is N worried about quickhammers on Day 1? (Post ) - Slightly scummy.

Because, as I explained to someone else when they asked: I have bad previous experiences of day 1 quickhammers. (micro 18, newbiew 1272, judge jury executioner, open 450, etc).
GTKAS

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Post Post #481 (ISO) » Sat Nov 17, 2012 9:20 pm

Post by adorkable »

Gentlemen Bastards wrote:Adorkable: Can you explain to us the "Told you so" attitude from the clip given that we read through you and found little to no trace of you having a scum-read on Doom at all. Closest we found was you randomly voting him as a 'placeholder vote' stating you'll get to him in the morning in Post 373 and never actually following through on it at all. Also slightly unrelated question, went to do some meta'ing on you and apparently you're not a 'private hydra' but rather just Pie / Euso, is there any particular reason you've been refering to each other as 'that head' 'other head' ect. this game whereas calling yourself actual names in other games?


We were going to get around to ISOing everyone and sifting out town/null reads but never got around to it. I took a look at a few people when I wwas having trouble sleeping and decided to place our vote on DoomYoshi because his placement on two of the wagons for the day (I wanna say Piggy and JS? not sure and too lazy to check) stood out. None of his posts screamed town to me either.

Does the second part of your paragraph really matter? Besides, at this point, esurio's been way too far behind to fully catch up due to her schoolwork so it's been me doing most of the work with her chiming in occasionally, either skimming and commenting on occasion or playing devil's advocate or whatever.

Also, I was looking at your Empking/DY paragraph and noticed something: what do you think about Post 339 from DoomYoshi regarding UT? Does this post affect your read on UT at all?

Nero Cain wrote:So why respond with a bunch of crap about coffee?


Because it entertained me.

Nero Cain wrote:So this black and white thinkin’ that scum and only scum will only call their buddies scum and not call them town and not call town scum is a mildly retarded stance.


You're oversimplifying it. My point is that when many people tend to call someone scum without
anyone
pushing a wagon on them, it's usually done by scum to blend in or give them a bus-vote to fall back on.

Nero Cain wrote:So who were the scum that was “bussing” me?


Quick skim to find posts that threw suspicion on you without vote commitment:

PiggyGal15 wrote:
Nero Cain wrote:Was curious why TF’s early scum read on Senj was scummy but DC’s early scum read on me was not?


Because your scum. ^.^


Demon Core wrote:
DeasVail wrote:

N (3)- Demon Core, Toon Fighter, RedCoyote
Nero Cain (1)- Plan B


Cool kids vote these wagons^


DoomYoshi wrote:Nero's play does seem off (compared to our last game together). This is why getting invested in a game is a bad thing. I can't tell what Nero actually thinks about much.... Except that he doesn't like senjai on a personal level. Is that the same as waffling? This is the better of the two wagons.


Now, I'm not comfortable putting you at a scumread due to your townblocker claim, so it's really irrelevant at this point anyway.


Gonna take a look at N, Plan B, RC, and TF at some point. Complete nullread on Emp. May look into JS (I remember him being a townread early D1, haven't paid attention to him since).
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Post Post #482 (ISO) » Sun Nov 18, 2012 1:05 am

Post by Gentlemen Bastards »

Exhausted so will try and focus on this game tomorrow, think Empires just gone to bed so will be able to talk with him then too.
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Post Post #483 (ISO) » Sun Nov 18, 2012 3:46 am

Post by RedCoyote »

GB, what do y'all say to the fact that DY was pushing C+B suspicions pretty hard throughout the day? You don't think it was too hard?

I'm starting to think Toon might be the way to go today... but I feel like every player I look at leads to grasping at straws to find a solid connection to DY. The thing about Toon is that they had one little handshake early in the game and that was it. I'm also concerned about UT.

Unvote
;
vote: Toon Fighter


Having trouble with scumreads in this game, but I think Toon > NC > F-16 right now.

One more thing to note:

DC 425 wrote:Scummy people:
N (not acting like a townie being wagoned, is pretty much keeping his head down in response to pressure)
Piggy (already been over this)
UT (Law&Order tell)
Red Coyote (he just is)
adorkable (posting is too snipey for my liking; insists on sitting on and inconsequential wagon without really advancing it)
Toon Fighter (for GB's reasons)


There's likely a scum in the group of N, adorkable, UT, and Toon.
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Post Post #484 (ISO) » Sun Nov 18, 2012 4:25 am

Post by Untrod Tripod »

He named like 1/3 of the game. Staaaaaaaaatistics
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Post Post #485 (ISO) » Sun Nov 18, 2012 5:05 am

Post by RedCoyote »

It means more for both of us though. We're both on the list. Also Piggy is dead. Also I have reads on the remaining players on that list to influence which are more/less likely to be scum. Don't you?
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Post Post #486 (ISO) » Sun Nov 18, 2012 5:43 am

Post by Empking »

F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:No idea why Empking has JacobSavage as very town. I still doubt Emp-scum would so blatantly buddy his buddy - but then again, that may be what he wants us to think. And he votes obvtown Senjai - yeah, I am not liking Empking. Could be a chainsaw defense.


What? How do you define chainsaw defense?
Plus, if you guys want to make a point, skip the walls, because everyone else in the game does as well. - Magister Ludi
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Post Post #487 (ISO) » Sun Nov 18, 2012 6:14 am

Post by 4nxi3ty »

RedCoyote wrote:Having trouble with scumreads in this game, but I think Toon > NC > F-16 right now.

After seeing F-16's latest post I would replace F-16 with adorkable, though I would only put adorkable at slightly leaning scummy.

I think UT is town.
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Post Post #488 (ISO) » Sun Nov 18, 2012 11:17 am

Post by adorkable »

We're probably going to work on some VCA in the next day or two, but in the meantime: anyone that has suspicion of us, could you point out specific "scummy" posts and provide reasoning? I've noticed a lot of fingers pointed in our direction lately, but few people have said why they suspect us. I think NC has given reasoning and I know DC gave a short description in his scumreads post. A good portion of it seems to be PoE as well, or that's what I'm getting out of all the "scum is in these X people" posts.

Discussion never hurts, after all.
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Post Post #489 (ISO) » Sun Nov 18, 2012 11:19 am

Post by adorkable »

RedCoyote wrote:There's likely a scum in the group of N, adorkable, UT, and Toon.


If we're going to assume scum took the very basic tactic of killing off people that suspect them, you should include yourself in that group.

Which, as UT pointed out, is about 42% of the game.
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Post Post #490 (ISO) » Sun Nov 18, 2012 12:54 pm

Post by Toon Fighter »

Has NC claimed his action yet? I didn't see anything

Anyway, I like F_16's case on JS. Will
unvote, vote: JacobSavage
~Toon fighter~
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Post Post #491 (ISO) » Sun Nov 18, 2012 1:10 pm

Post by Gentlemen Bastards »

F-16, your scum-read on Jacob is trash, it seems to pretty much be completely based around him 'whiteknighting' Piggy and then you're basing a lot of your other rads on your read on him. None of it is anything I can follow logically at all. Also while 'catching-up' into games as a replacement isn't the quickest thing in the world it doesn't take a week, especially if you claim that you were motivated to do it as well; and the games only 20 pages, that's relatively small.

Adorakable, don't think about UT is a tell either way.

RC, Doom didn't 'push C+B' hard throughout the day at all, in fact if anything he defended them and was very waffly about them.

Seems there's more support over here:

Unvote, Vote: Toon
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Post Post #492 (ISO) » Sun Nov 18, 2012 1:32 pm

Post by F-16_Fighting_Falcon »

The interactions between JacobSavage and doomyoshi read as scum-scum to me. The whiteknighting is just one part of the case. Piggy was legitimately scummy. 8 people voted for her. JS's initial defense seems like knowledge of Piggy's affiliation. Add to that that Doom was antagonistic toward JS while never really pushing the JS lynch makes JS our best shot based on associative tells. Based on Toon's vote, I think most likely they are not on the same team although at least one of them is likely scum.

Another important note is that Doom paired JS with other players like Plan B claiming that conditional upon JS's flip, he would FOS them. This looks to me like creating false association between his buddy and townies. This he did while at the same time pushing lynches other than JS.
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Post Post #493 (ISO) » Sun Nov 18, 2012 5:02 pm

Post by Untrod Tripod »

So I did a little ISOing and VC reading. The way DY interacted with the Senjai wagon was interesting, in how he defended Senjai.
DoomYoshi wrote:Senjai reminds me a lot of myself (outspoken on many fundamental mafia ideas).

-snip-

Why are you still voting Senjai? He is practically oozing town at this point. He may be an amazing scum player, but we will cross that bridge when we get to it.
I'm pretty willing to call GB town for the moment on this basis. DY strikes me as the kind of scum player who would defend the hell out of a town player for early cred.

To piggyback onto F16's points above, I checked for the relevant quotes in DY's ISO, I found two good quotes
This one:

DoomYoshi wrote:If Jacob flips scum, I will consider more seriously nero (not saying that's a scum or town read, just that I will think about it more).


and this one

DoomYoshi wrote:Ok, Plan B, but if JS flips scum, I'm going to fos you hardcore.
DEM LYNCH CHAINS, BRO

I'm cool with a JS lynch because of DY trying to set up lynches based on JS flipping scum
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Post Post #494 (ISO) » Sun Nov 18, 2012 5:02 pm

Post by Untrod Tripod »

unvote, vote JacobSavage
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Post Post #495 (ISO) » Sun Nov 18, 2012 6:15 pm

Post by Gentlemen Bastards »

What the actual fuck people? DY literally voted Jacob at #76 parking his vote there only switching when Piggy was getting run up (#262)and then immediately hopping back in #286. He also directed comments like #168's "Sorry, JS, but this is laughably horrendous. There are more problems but this is a trifecta of I can't understand how a goes to b." and #286's "I'm not sold on the towniness here." They're pretty blatantly not partners. To say he never actively pushed the JS lynch is complete bullshit. Vote Toon Fighter instead.
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Post Post #496 (ISO) » Sun Nov 18, 2012 6:33 pm

Post by Untrod Tripod »

he spent a lot more time with his vote on N than on JS
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Post Post #497 (ISO) » Sun Nov 18, 2012 6:35 pm

Post by Untrod Tripod »

well, not a lot more, but definitely an appreciable amount of time
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Post Post #498 (ISO) » Sun Nov 18, 2012 7:02 pm

Post by Gentlemen Bastards »

Uhhh no. Regfan calculated the amount of time DY had his vote on both players. DY had his vote on JS from Oct. 31st to Nov. 5th and then again from Nov. 6th to the 8th. DY had his vote on N from Nov. 8th to the 12th. By our count, that's 7 days on JS and 4 on N. Plus you're ignoring the fact that JS's play, on its own, is very very town.
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Post Post #499 (ISO) » Mon Nov 19, 2012 2:48 am

Post by Plan B »

Nero Cain wrote:lol. How is what he did different then your fence sitiing on piggy? Oh don't worry about replying with anything like "well piggy flipped town so she can't be my scum buddy" 'cause that not what I'm accusing you of.

Well, I don't get your point.

DoomYoshi is known scum. PiggyGal15 is known town. I'm accusing DoomYoshi of going with the flow while saying you were a better wagon than N, then preferentially voting N over you when your wagon was called into question.

I explained how the relative ease of the PiggyGal15 wagon and her claim at L-1 + hammer threat was enough to take her off my lynch list. Just how are these similar things?

Also, this is the second time you've thrown out an accusation and tried to shut down an answer before I could respond. I see that as you knowing the point is faulty, and not really wanting to find out where I'm coming from. Not scum hunting, just mud slinging.
Nero Cain wrote:+ There’s a lot of “I’d be ok with this lynch to” Keep your options open more.

Nero Cain wrote:It’s not the worlds best logic. I mean sure, scum sometimes will distance by calling their scumbuddies scum but they do that with town too and
town even does that ‘cause you can have more than one scum read at a time but aren’t able to vote them all at once.

Yeah, o.k., you just answered your own accusation against me in your previous post.
That's
cognitive dissonance. You're just throwing attacks at players who are attacking you as a defense mechanism.

adorkable wrote:Now, I'm not comfortable putting you at a scumread due to your townblocker claim, so it's really irrelevant at this point anyway.

This is different than PiggyGal15's claim. This wagon won't gain any traction and Nero Cain claimed out of the blue in a way that seemed specifically tailored to the game environment to dismantle the wagon.

Is there anything else about Nero Cain's claim that makes you think he's not likely scum?

Why would you use quotes from Demon Core and PiggyGal15 to support your point against Nero Cain? I believe your point is that Nero Cain was a general suspect who didn't get votes - making him likely scum because his buddies were distancing without voting him. So, how could known Town have been doing that? I'm confused what you're trying to convey, here. Please clarify.

Untrod Tripod wrote:I'm cool with a JS lynch because of DY trying to set up lynches based on JS flipping scum

I get this point. But, the flip side is that a JacobSavage Town flip let's DoomYoshi off the hook for suspicion on Nero Cain and me. Because it could mean either thing, I think the point is null. And, I think JacobSavage is likely to flip Town.

Come back to Nero Cain. He's scummy independant of DoomYoshi's posts, but JacobSavage is likely Town independant of DoomYoshi's posts.

Hmph, this resistance to Nero Cain getting run up means one of two things. Either he's scum and being protected, or I'm on the wrong track and other Town players are seeing reasons not to vote him.

@ Gentlemen Bastards and Empking

I'm comfortable with you guys in my Town reads pile. Could you explain how I might be wrong about Nero Cain?
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