Mini 1398 - Game Over!

[Mirhawk]

Doctors and bodyguards may be able to be in the same game. It depends on whether the mod came up with a way for their roles to function in case they cross protect each other. My information on this is completely from the wiki article on bodyguards.

So maybe, but alduskkal would have had to sort out some way for the roles to work together first.

[ICEninja]

Jabber just spent an extensive amount of effort buddying up to me. This feels sketchy as hell, as since there was no pressure on me what-so-ever, the only reason I can think of someone would want to do this is to continue to get me to follow along with their reads.

For the first time in the game, I'm actually considering the possibility of Jabberscum.

Doctors and bodyguards may be able to be in the same game. It depends on whether the mod came up with a way for their roles to function in case they cross protect each other.

Interesting. I don't have the care to spend a whole lot of time investigating the subject (unless we have a doctor flip, of course) to see how common it is for a mini normal to have both a bodyguard and a doctor, but knowing this makes me feel a little better about lynching Shamrock before Bacde.

All the same, there is very good reason to lynch Bacde today.

[Jabberwock]

Jabber just spent an extensive amount of effort buddying up to me. This feels sketchy as hell, as since there was no pressure on me what-so-ever, the only reason I can think of someone would want to do this is to continue to get me to follow along with their reads.

For the first time in the game, I'm actually considering the possibility of Jabberscum.

If extensively explaining Townreads is something scummy for you, you're in for a wild ride. That was Empire, champion of meta analysis--but I do much the same (though he tends to have prettier links). Look at my Konowa Townread in Dresden Mafia.

What Empire is doing is rereading the game (he was rather busy through most of D1, and Today it's my turn), with a special focus on the Shamrock wagon for potential bussers. I had that Townread from your reaction to our entrance (it has similarities to what Konowa expected of the Vi/Tierce hydra in Dresdenafia--he had Reverse Mafia-Dresdenafia, you had Dresdenafia-Mini 1398 Without A Cool Name), and while I couldn't mention it in-game with a good, thorough explanation because Dresden was still ongoing, I shared it with Empire and pointed to the similarities in belligerent behavior in early game between the two games. Today that Townread is relevant for analysis of the Shamrock wagon, so it's coming out.

(Besides, you can't tell me you wouldn't like to pet this cuddly avatar. (ºwº))

[Jabberwock]

Doctors and bodyguards together make no sense in a Mini Normal. No sane review team is going to let that pass. That results in a string of several days of "whyyyy can't I kill these people" for scum.

Bodyguards are replacements for doctors that don't gain the Town a half lynch. (It takes two successful saves for a doctor to gain the Town another lynch, and bodyguards just shift the kill target). Bodyguard + doctor pretty much defeats the purpose altogether.

The Disturbed_One kill makes sense regardless of Bacde's alignment. Bacde-Town would have caused the scumteam to deviate from obvious protection targets to avoid hitting Bacde instead, since he's a juicy mislynch waiting to happen. Bacde-scum would have caused the scumteam to deviate from obvious protection targets because they don't want to kill someone it would make sense for Bacde to protect.

Nevertheless, Bacde is not the lynch for Today--while he is alive, any claimed PR's death will mean forfeiting Bacde's own. With one dead scum out of likely three, we can afford that risk for a while.

[Alduskkel]

Vote Count #16

Bacde (2) - Rob13, ICEninja
Melmond (1) - Jabberwock

Not Voting (8) - Melmond, Bacde, Mirhawk, Cheery Dog, Nachomamma8, absta101, jmo16mla, iamausername

Deadline is in: (expired on 2013-01-01 16:30:00)

11 alive, 6 to lynch.

[Nachomamma8]

Will not read Rob13's post now, but I plan to in the future when I have more patience.

I explain why I disagree and feel his claim is fake in post 260.

Even if you think his claim is fake, he is still not the lynch for today. Even him being scum would the scum's NK options, and considering we haven't mislynched yet, there's no reason to worry about LyLo, so we can still hunt for partners today. He is an incredibly bad lynch for today and I would rather people stop bringing him up and trying to lynch him.

What is scum Bacde going to do? Claim VT and eat the lynch?

When the alternate wagon is on his lurking scumpartner, then claiming VT is probably the optimal play. Scumpartner gets replaced for lurking so hard, competent player takes his spot. If we're not arguing scumBacde would make optimal plays, then no, I don't think he would claim Bodyguard. Bodyguard is an uncommon role and an uncommon fakeclaim; it's much more of a gambit than claiming a more common role because you don't know how people will react. Weak scum players are not normally good at fakeclaims, and there's no reason to assume that Bacde would play how he has been playing for as long as he has and then bring out a good fakeclaim.

If he claimed VT he would have been hammered. Regardless if he was town or scum. Simple.

this also isn't so simple.
if you claim VT, it's not an instant lynch.

The nightkill is making me definity think jmo town though, he had his vote on disturbed the whole way through day 1, and if he would then go and nightkill him, it would be a waste of their cheif suspect.

Dangerous reasoning. It's called a scumteam for a reason, and a scumpartner choosing who to kill and jmo going along with it is not outside the realms of possibility.

@Hawk - Is it true that Bodyguards can't be with doctors?

They can be; they very rarely are. If there is a doctor in the setup that hasn't claimed yet, they should most definitely do so.

Jabber just spent an extensive amount of effort buddying up to me. This feels sketchy as hell, as since there was no pressure on me what-so-ever, the only reason I can think of someone would want to do this is to continue to get me to follow along with their reads.

still liking ICE for town.

It wouldn't be too shocking if Melmond flipped scum, but I would rather followup on this for now:

Vote: absta

[ICEninja]

Jabber I'm not saying it's suspicious that you've got good reasoning for having a town read on me, but Nacho's "still liking ICE for town" is pretty much all town needs to say. Scum on the other hand would want to make me feel good by really delving in to why I'm town. Now if I was on the chopping block, then yeah you'd need to convince people that I'm town, but I don't think very many people need much in the way of convincing.

Anyways, I'm at a bit of a crossroads here, metaphorically speaking. I feel pretty good about Bacde scum, and would like to see him lynched, but Jabber makes a good point saying that scum is going to be more careful who they chose to night kill and possibly hit suboptimal targets.

That actually worries me some, because the town PRs tend to not be the aggressive leaders.

I need to think on this some.

[ICEninja]

They can be; they very rarely are. If there is a doctor in the setup that hasn't claimed yet, they should most definitely do so.

I'm actually not so sure about this. If there is a doctor in town (which there usually seems to be), then so long as Bacde doesn't make it to lylo it doesn't matter. He WILL be lynched when the doctor later claims or is killed. I would prefer either lynching Bacde without the need for a counter claim, or just holding off on lynching him than sacrificing a town PR for it. Unless said doctor is one of our useless lurkers, in which case go for it. I wouldn't mind seeing, for example, Melmond draw the NK.

[Mirhawk]

I agree with this. As long as bacde is not alive in lylo we're fine. If there's a doc I don't want them coming out now.

[Rob14]

Sorry, guys, but I don't have time to look at this game today. I have some major revisions to do on three essays that I have to hand in as a writing portfolio tomorrow. All the time I do have for Mafia is being directed towards the other two games I'm in, both of which have deadlines very soon (one of them in like four hours). Again, sorry. Will catch up Thursday for sure. I'll have plenty of time then.

[Nachomamma8]

They can be; they very rarely are. If there is a doctor in the setup that hasn't claimed yet, they should most definitely do so.

I'm actually not so sure about this. If there is a doctor in town (which there usually seems to be), then so long as Bacde doesn't make it to lylo it doesn't matter. He WILL be lynched when the doctor later claims or is killed. I would prefer either lynching Bacde without the need for a counter claim, or just holding off on lynching him than sacrificing a town PR for it. Unless said doctor is one of our useless lurkers, in which case go for it. I wouldn't mind seeing, for example, Melmond draw the NK.

I would like Jabberwock's opinion on this. I will think on this a bit more when I'm not tired as hell, but I *think* it would be optimal for a doctor/alternative protective role to be outed now as opposed to later.

[Jabberwock]

They can be; they very rarely are. If there is a doctor in the setup that hasn't claimed yet, they should most definitely do so.

I'm actually not so sure about this. If there is a doctor in town (which there usually seems to be), then so long as Bacde doesn't make it to lylo it doesn't matter. He WILL be lynched when the doctor later claims or is killed. I would prefer either lynching Bacde without the need for a counter claim, or just holding off on lynching him than sacrificing a town PR for it. Unless said doctor is one of our useless lurkers, in which case go for it. I wouldn't mind seeing, for example, Melmond draw the NK.

I would like Jabberwock's opinion on this. I will think on this a bit more when I'm not tired as hell, but I *think* it would be optimal for a doctor/alternative protective role to be outed now as opposed to later.

Both heads are in agreement that if there is another protective role, Today would be a good time for claiming--especially if not under duress.

[iamausername]

Anyways I still want to know where I lied iam.

it's here:

When I said Nacho was ripping your posts to shreds I meant his later ones, after you started arguing with him.

if you changed your mind after making post 185, then that wasn't what you meant in post 185. it's what you decided you meant afterwards, when you realised Nacho's case wasn't so strong as you thought.

but anyway, Shamrock trying to undermine Jabberwock's townread on Mirhawk in post 215 makes it highly unlikely that they were scum together, so i'm not going to keep harping on about this. i still don't follow Mirhawk's thought process, but it's not like this would be the first time i've ever been unable to follow someone else's thought process. fine. you somehow changed your mind both before and after post 185. sure.

Post #52 - And the scum gives himself away. JMO says the following:

1.I'm not sure what would have happened if I wasn't drunk. But I probably would have made sure I wasn't voting the guy that was already voting for me.

-snip-

3. I didn't lie about it. Being drunk doesn't make it look worse. Like I said, I voted randomly. If I hadn't been drunk I would have made sure that I wouldn't have voted disturbed one because he was already voting me and I know people regard that as a scum tell/newb move. Simple.

If you're town, why would you care so much to carefully avoid giving off scum tells? Scum, in general, are far more aware of being sure not to give off scum-tells than town. I find this super-scummy.

this is an excellent catch and i can't believe i didn't notice this myself.

VOTE: jmo16mla

[Mirhawk]

@iam
Well you're completely wrong for the record but if you don't want to discuss it anymore that's fine.

Also Robs "catch" on Jmo is terrible. Any town player who acts scummy and gets lynched is regarded as a bad player, but somehow mentioning that you're trying to avid this is a scumtell.

[ICEninja]

I don't feel like it's particularly solid grounds to vote for someone, but you're taking it too far. Town's win condition is to find and lynch scum, whereas scum's win condition is to survive. As Rob said, scum are therefore more aware of trying to not give off scum slips. When I'm town, I'll once in a while change my wording and ideas in preview so I don't come off as scummy, but not NEARLY as much as I do when scum, for example.

Anyways, while I feel pretty confident about Bacde scum, I'm starting to feel like lynching him tomorrow would be a better idea. Especially if we have a vig, who should aim a bullet in his direction. If Bacde were to die through course of a night action, it would essentially be giving town an extra lynch which would be lovely. This also gives another day for any possible doctor we have to die, which would probably 99% prove Bacde's guilt.

Plus I came in to day 2 feeling like I was just going to push Bacde's lynch and got some tunnel vision so I should take a little bit of time to step back and come up with some more reads. So for now I'll:

unvote

and pursue some new possibilities.

[Melmond]

I've reread most of the game. And I'm thinking absta or mirhawk might be scum, but neither of these are very strong, I was suprised to see the disturbed flip town.
I think we should hold off on lynching bacde for now because if a pr does claim today, he could come in handy if he was indeed a bodyguard.

Cheery Dog seems a little wierd in this game too, in the last game i was in with him, he was a lot more aggressive.

@rob: Why do you think absta is so town?

[jmo16mla]

this is an excellent catch and i can't believe i didn't notice this myself.

I feel like this is a fabricated reaction.

And also rob, your case against me about voting, tell me you have NEVER in RVS, even as town, tried to not vote someone who was already voted. Same theory.

[Nachomamma8]

this is an excellent catch and i can't believe i didn't notice this myself.

why else do you think jmo is scum?

Cheery Dog seems a little wierd in this game too, in the last game i was in with him, he was a lot more aggressive.

this isn't a good basis for a scumread. dig deeper.

[Melmond]

He isn't exactly a scumread at the moment, but I'm definitely going to keep an eye on him.

[iamausername]

why else do you think jmo is scum?

total lack of scumhunting, mostly. also post 252 is pretty bad in light of Shamrock's flip.

[Cheery Dog]

The nightkill is making me definity think jmo town though, he had his vote on disturbed the whole way through day 1, and if he would then go and nightkill him, it would be a waste of their cheif suspect.

Dangerous reasoning. It's called a scumteam for a reason, and a scumpartner choosing who to kill and jmo going along with it is not outside the realms of possibility.

That could be the case, I just don't see it when jmo had been on him all day yesterday. (unless it was to get him to move onto someone else I guess)

I'm actually not so sure about this. If there is a doctor in town (which there usually seems to be), then so long as Bacde doesn't make it to lylo it doesn't matter. He WILL be lynched when the doctor later claims or is killed. I would prefer either lynching Bacde without the need for a counter claim, or just holding off on lynching him than sacrificing a town PR for it. Unless said doctor is one of our useless lurkers, in which case go for it. I wouldn't mind seeing, for example, Melmond draw the NK.

Two dead scum after two days would be worth a doctor sacrifice, we would have more than one PR anyway.

Also Robs "catch" on Jmo is terrible. Any town player who acts scummy and gets lynched is regarded as a bad player, but somehow mentioning that you're trying to avid this is a scumtell.

I agree with this, while scum are in fact afraid of being scummy, they don't outright claim that they would have done something else had they been paying attention. There are many (mostly new) town players who also don't like to seem scummy, these are also people who have probably not actually played a scum game yet.

Cheery Dog seems a little wierd in this game too, in the last game i was in with him, he was a lot more aggressive.

Was I? (mini 1368 right?) I abandoned my day 1 approach after I was put to L-1 and nothing was happening in that game. Are you saying I should be going out hard against a random vote's reasoning as a reaction test? (because I'm never doing that again, it just fails epically every time, and I've seen other people do the same thing and have the same thing happen to them)

[jmo16mla]

why else do you think jmo is scum?

total lack of scumhunting, mostly. also post 252 is pretty bad in light of Shamrock's flip.

That's an even worse reasoning.

[ICEninja]

Alright so after looking things over, I actually do feel like Cheery is scum. It's going to be a little difficult to explain in detail why I feel this way, but looking over his posts in ISO really showed me reaction based play. A VAST majority of his content is simply responding to what other players have said recently, and adding a very small amount to the discussion that way.

In exactly one post, his 315, he makes a few really weak points suggesting absta as scum, and places a vote. Everything else he's posted was either discussing things that weren't particularly relevant to him and not relevant to finding scum, or basically saying that he has nothing to say.

Look at Cheery's day 2 posts in particular. He's made quite a few posts, typed quite a lot of words, and yet I literally can not find a

single

piece of scum hunting whatsoever. There just isn't a shred of any actual ambition in finding scum. Even his day 1 vote was just parking it somewhere useless.

Also, again in his 315 he said this:

I was just about to come and hammer him though

And it just feels really faked to me. It's the only emoticon I've seen him use all game, and reading the context of everything, it just doesn't make sense. ESPECIALLY considering how the rest of the post is his little "case" against absta, and he hardly mentions Shamrock from that point on. It reads very much as a fake reaction to me.

Bacde can die tomorrow, I really think Cheery is a good way to go today.

Vote Cheery Dog

.

[Rob14]

Going to write up my case on Bacde now and then catch-up on what's been said so far today. Expect my Bacde-related post in ~30 mins or less.

[Rob14]

Here's a few posts that I thought were scummy by themselves, but my read on Bacde is mostly the product of his interactions with JMO. Will go into that later:

Sticking on iam for still not seeming genuine. 2nd fos = iceninja

I don't like how iam thinks iceninja is a good wagon.

I don't like this post because he identifies iam as being scummy because he likes a wagon on iceninja, who is Bacde's own #2 scum read according to the same post. There's a disconnect between the reason he gives for not liking iam and his own read on iceninja. It seems like he's trying to turn everything iam says into something that's scummy/anti-town.

I'm not really interested in defending me being town right now. I'm much more interested in lynching scum you.

Cop-out for not being able to defend himself.

-nacho is scum
-nachos posts are really scummy
-i want nacho to be lynched

I'll keep my vote here.

Refuses to defend his vote on Nacho. He can't point to any posts at all that Nacho has made that are scummy. He just repeats that he thinks Nacho is scummy.

If jmo and dunhamganger hop on this wagon too it practically proves that I'm town. Choo-choo

I see Nacho as a cautious player who is concerned with how other people see him. Thats scumplay in my book. I've already stated my points before so I don't know how I am supposed to reiterate them for you in a bullet-point format.

This is a big gut-read for me as well.

@Mirhawk, what about my logic is bad?

Don't like either of the bolded parts. Having a wagon on you does not prove that you're town. That's just flat-out false, and I don't like that you pushed that at all. It doesn't make sense. Second part, he basically admits that he has very little case on Nacho. Instead of re-evaluating his read on Nacho when he's unable to defend it, he just refuses to post his reasons or explain them and claims it's just a gut read (but still worthy of voting and getting a wagon going, as he called for earlier). He's not scum-hunting if he's unable to give any reasons for where his vote is.

Nacho, I like how you are finally addressing me as a threat to your scumship. I'm not someone to be "hahahaha'd" lightly away, and you are finally realizing this aren't you? I really like how you are concentrating on your read of me as town (as though that will affect you being scum in any way). You KNOW I have a good case on you, so you finally have to address my points. I KNEW I'd catch you.

I do not consider this to be genuine in any way. This reads to me like begging for town-points. I do not see the purpose that this portion of the post serves for town. I certainly see how it could try to emphasize Nacho's town read on Bacde and how good of a case Bacde has supposedly made if Bacde is scum.

These are some of the reasons I'm suspicious of Bacde, but another major one is that him and JMO are like Siamese twins. They're joined at the hip. Here's a few examples of this:

Sticking on iam for still not seeming genuine. 2nd fos = iceninja

I don't like how iam thinks iceninja is a good wagon.

Vote: ICENinja

absta seems town

@Bacde, what changed between these two posts? iceninja hadnt posted between the two.

Good question. iceninja didn't post but iamausername did.

I don't like the "good question" bit at the beginning. It sounds unusual. It seems like he's trying to encourage a good opinion on JMO. The interaction is just a tad "off." If anyone found an instance of Bacde doing this in a town game, this would be a null tell, though.

The fact that Disturbed thinkts Dire_Drenz is a good target for pressure makes me want to not pressure Dire_Drenz. Staying on Disturbed.

The fact that Disturbed thinkts Dire_Drenz is a good target for pressure makes me want to not pressure Dire_Drenz. Staying on Disturbed.

probably because he wants the pressure off of him.

JMO parroting Bacde.

I find that nacho getting off the wagon quite fishy also..
But. He has played enough games on site to know that people would suspect him about it. I'm pretty sure he's town. Why would he as scum do it like that if he knows it would attract attention?

^Good post, but you are using WIFOM logic. Why would scum do anything scummy if they know that it is scummy?

If you're going to dismiss everything JMO is saying, why is it a good post? Why put this qualifier in there that makes JMO's post seem more town-like and legitimate if you're going to dismiss the entire thing? This is similar to the "good question" from earlier, establishing a pattern. Notice he doesn't do this with anyone else in the game, as far as I noticed. JUST jmo.

These are some examples of a pattern I noticed throughout the game. Bacde also was attacking Disturbed whilst he was going after JMO. Note that Disturbed was also killed following a day full of pressure on JMO and to a lesser degree Bacde.

The Bacde/JMO interaction is just really, really strange and I don't think it comes from town. I do consider them a package deal based on this interaction. If one flips town, I doubt the other one is scum and vice versa.