Open 493 - Jungle Republic. (Game Over - Werewolf Victory)

[Syryana]

Frankly I think that's pretty fucking ludicrous.

You are entitled to your opinion. Even if it's wrong. You have to admit that wouldn't be the first time someone at L-1 fake bussed their partner in order to steer suspicion clear of them. So to call that "fucking ludicrous" is fucking ludicrous.

What's fucking ludicrous is that your all of your scumreads since you replaced in are based off WIFOM. Klick, Egg, me. All based off WIFOM fuzzy stuff.

WIFOM link from Bacde? I didn't see this. Link?

There were two entire posts you missed, then. All of post 1073. And post 1074.

More recently post 1081 and post 1082.

His assertion that you killed DBK because he was a vocal advocate of your lynch is WIFOM, yes. However, the major difference between Bacde's case on you and your case on me/Egg is that Bacde actually has some non-WIFOM points against you. His use of WIFOM is shit, but I don't really care since that's not his case against you.

In very short terms, this is the difference:
Bacde: "Hey, princess is scum because Autti and reasons! In fact, now I look at the DBK kill, that seems like a reasonably good lynch for today; it makes sense!"
Princess: "Let's lynch Syr or Egg because [WIFOM]. I thought Klick was the werewolf because [WIFOM]".

VOTE: Princess

Pedit: I'll read Bulbs thing later

[goodmorning]

Princess is mafia, because her vote yesterday was an obvious bus. She was under a considerable amount of suspicion yesterday, and bussing Klick was on opportunity to gain towncred, which she is going after with a vengeance:

I don't know why you had Autti as scum. I don't care. I'm not Autti and I'm Town. Also, I helped lynch a non Town as my very first vote. That buys me at least one opportunity to be wrong.

Because of this, it doesn't make sense for her to be the last wolf. The only way this would work was if she knew for sure that Klick was mafia, and the only way she'd know that was if she was his partner. Therefore, Princess is the last mafia.

So a quote from after the flip is supposed to tell us something about gamestate before the flip? Riiiiiight.

Bulb, tell me why I would have shot bo if I was werewolf.

Bo was in the null/scummy area of everybody's reads, essentially putting him in the gray area.

In which universe?

I lynched him thinking he was the other werewolf. My goal was to take out one killing faction if at all possible. He was anti-Town so it didn't really matter to me as Town.

And you made that decision, analyzing all of the possible interactions of 40+ pages after only 17 minutes? I don't think so. Let's be honest, you were under extreme suspicion and you needed an out, so you bussed your buddy for towncred. Heck, you even congratulated him on his self-vote.

Regardless of whether it's bussing (she's maf) or just luck (she's wolf), the really scummy thing about her vote was its opportunism.

Bulba, I know you can do waaaaaaaaaay better than this. Like a lot.


@Princess Proton: I asked you this:

Please stop trying to fake towntells, it's right in the ruleset that the wolf faction gets a kill and the mafia faction doesn't. You came in apparently knowing the setup, how would you not know the modifications?

Please respond.

@Bacde: Look, I posted. It's a pooooost

@Syr: Don't bother reading Bulba's thing, unless you like bad arguments.

[Bacde]

So you agree w/ bulbazak and you think its egg?

I'm looking at Egg and Syr.

lol

its clearly not Syr

[Bacde]

Now that Klick flipped mafia, Mac is no longer a suspect, so you 2 can go over and make out in a corner for all I care. Now are you done misrepping me, or do you want to continue to be butthurt about this?

I'm not butthurt about anything

I'm just pushing my reads

[Bacde]

Seriously. Princess, stop. I want to lynch the wolf, which means giving you a free pass today. Don't scum up the thread so much that I change my mind.

Translation: Dude Princess I know you are the other scum we can win this we just have to work together

[Bulbazak]

Princess is mafia, because her vote yesterday was an obvious bus. She was under a considerable amount of suspicion yesterday, and bussing Klick was on opportunity to gain towncred, which she is going after with a vengeance:

I don't know why you had Autti as scum. I don't care. I'm not Autti and I'm Town. Also, I helped lynch a non Town as my very first vote. That buys me at least one opportunity to be wrong.

Because of this, it doesn't make sense for her to be the last wolf. The only way this would work was if she knew for sure that Klick was mafia, and the only way she'd know that was if she was his partner. Therefore, Princess is the last mafia.

So a quote from after the flip is supposed to tell us something about gamestate before the flip? Riiiiiight.

That wasn't the crux of the argument at all GM, and you know it. Princess's vote on Klick yesterday was a play to get town cred, which she affirms with each post that she makes. The only way for her to get towncred from the lynch was if she knew that Klick would flip scum, and the only way to know that for certain would be if she was his partner. It's basic deductive reasoning.

Bo was in the null/scummy area of everybody's reads, essentially putting him in the gray area.

In which universe?

Who besides you had a town read on Bo? From what I remember, he was either seen as scum, leaning scum, or null.

Bulba, I know you can do waaaaaaaaaay better than this. Like a lot.

Is it possible that you learned from Donner Party, and I'm just misreading you?

Seriously. Princess, stop. I want to lynch the wolf, which means giving you a free pass today. Don't scum up the thread so much that I change my mind.

Translation: Dude Princess I know you are the other scum we can win this we just have to work together

I think that is the dumbest thing I've ever read...

[Bacde]

I think that is the dumbest thing I've ever read...

Really?

Is that really the "dumbest" thing you've ever read?

As in... you've never seen a single thing in YOUR ENTIRE LIFE that is dumber than that?

What if I'm just a townie who is trying to figure stuff out?

Couldn't I be wrong about you, and also possibly not dumb?

Your overdefensiveness is noted

[Bacde]

Here's why princess is scum:

She thought that Klick was a werewolf for "associative reasons"

yet never found a single reason that Klick was independently scum

even after reading the thread when many people explicitly posted why Klick was independently scummy

whether she did it for town cred, or opportunistically to avoid being lynched doesn't matter

she clearly wanted to not get read as the scum she is (I'm of the mind that she was trying to force a not-werewolf tell as opposed to bussing, but hey)

[Bulbazak]

Is that really the "dumbest" thing you've ever read?

Probably not, but I try not to think too hard about my Newbie games.

What if I'm just a townie who is trying to figure stuff out?

I believe you, but you need to get over your confirmation bias first before you can proceed.

Couldn't I be wrong about you, and also possibly not dumb?

Depends if you continue to say things like the above quote.

Here's why princess is scum:

She thought that Klick was a werewolf for "associative reasons"

yet never found a single reason that Klick was independently scum

even after reading the thread when many people explicitly posted why Klick was independently scummy

whether she did it for town cred, or opportunistically to avoid being lynched doesn't matter

she clearly wanted to not get read as the scum she is (I'm of the mind that she was trying to force a not-werewolf tell as opposed to bussing, but hey)

Bacde, I'm not doubting Princess is scum, but I do disagree with your assertion that she's the werewolf, as it doesn't make sense given her actions. It is imperative that we lynch the wolf today, rather than scum, so that we don't lose any of the town. Therefore, while we have identified Princess as scum, and since she is more likely to be mafia given the vote and attempt to gain towncred, it is better to leave her for tomorrow and lynch the bigger threat. And in the event we can't find that threat before deadline, we can just lynch her anyway. She's not getting away, so calm down.

[Bacde]

well imo she's the werewolf and your argument for her bussing isn't as solid as you seem to think it is

[Bulbazak]

And what is your reasons? Because you say so? I'll present a fuller case later tonight. It looks like I have to spell everything out in finger paint for you.

[Bacde]

Dude are you seriously acting like I'm the stupid one here?

I'm 3 for 3 right now, and you have been actively arguing against lynching scum this game

[Bacde]

seriously, a "my bad bacde it turns out klick actually was mafia I'll listen to you more"

would have been nice

and might have even made me question my scumread on you

[Bacde]

And what is your reasons? Because you say so?

yeah I guess all those posts where I had all of my reasoning laid out for everyone was really just a convoluted way to say "because I say so"

[zabriel]

Vote Count 3.0

Bulba (Egg) - L-4
Egg (Bulba) - L-4
Princess Proton (Goodmorning, Syryana) - L-3

Day 3 will end in (expired on 2013-05-30 23:00:00). With 8 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.

[Bulbazak]

seriously, a "my bad bacde it turns out klick actually was mafia I'll listen to you more"

would have been nice

and might have even made me question my scumread on you

I try not to be apologetic and instead just amend my reads when I'm wrong. I find that I'm suspicious of people who end up being too apologetic in games, as it is impossible to always be right. You do the best that you can, and when you were mistaken, you reevaluate and go from there. I was wrong about Klick. Big whoop. Because of that, I have Mac as confirmed town via PoE. I have one more person that I can trust as town, and I narrowed down the list of scum to a pool of 3. At no point did bowing down to you as the almighty scumhunter enter into my to-do list.

And what is your reasons? Because you say so?

yeah I guess all those posts where I had all of my reasoning laid out for everyone was really just a convoluted way to say "because I say so"

At least have the decency to lay the case out again so that I can see them. I'm doing the same for you. We can actually review and, you know, discuss the merits of both cases.

I don't know, maybe I'm being too whatever today...

[Bacde]

I try not to be apologetic and instead just amend my reads when I'm wrong. I find that I'm suspicious of people who end up being too apologetic in games, as it is impossible to always be right. You do the best that you can, and when you were mistaken, you reevaluate and go from there. I was wrong about Klick. Big whoop. Because of that, I have Mac as confirmed town via PoE. I have one more person that I can trust as town, and I narrowed down the list of scum to a pool of 3. At no point did bowing down to you as the almighty scumhunter enter into my to-do list.

I never asked you to "bow down to the almighty scumhunter"

but when you talk as though you need to "fingerpaint me through" your reads it implies that you think I'm stupid and have horrible reasoning

and its an attitude that has carried over since the last dayphase

when there is more than enough evidence for you now to reevaluate my abilities as a scumhunter and to stop with your farce of "omg bacde is so bad at this game"

Basically, you are talking to me as though you have awesome reasoning and your reads are awesome when really you should have taken a slice of humble pie by now and realize that my reasoning is actually damn good and that you are in no position to criticize my play

There's a weird disconnect between the game going on in the thread and the game going on in your head

[Syryana]

Spoiler: spoilered for page sanity

Why is Egg wolf and Princess mafia?

Egg is wolf for all the reasons I've previously mentioned. He has been tackling this game with wolf intent, and that extends to this post:

I've been wrestling with this a bit in my head all morning. I'm more sure thene is scum than I am with bulb. However, as much as I didn't want to deal with "which scum group should we lynch?", I'm confident in thene being mafia rather than werewolf. And yes, werewolves can and should shoot mafia. And yes, they did so last night. However, with one mafia left, their odds of doing so are much less now. Also, we don't know if the Bo shot was an attempt at mafia or not because some people had him as town. I think it's better to try to eliminate the NK now.

Seriously! Why is no one seeing this?!

Egg does seem to be unusually sure TNE is mafia. I'm interested to hear his reasoning. Other than that though, I'm not seeing anything overtly wolfish here. Spell it out for me in nice simple words, Bulb?

Princess is mafia, because her vote yesterday was an obvious bus. She was under a considerable amount of suspicion yesterday, and bussing Klick was on opportunity to gain towncred, which she is going after with a vengeance:

Princess pops into the game, doesn't read(no way she read ~40 pages in 15 minutes), and votes Klick. While it is entirely possible it was a bus, the only thing you can say for certain is that her vote was opportunistic. She could be mafia bussing a buddy for cred, or a wolf voting the top wagon that isn't her slot and using the resulting flip for town cred. Opportunistic as fuck, yes. Scum team indicative, no.

I don't know why you had Autti as scum. I don't care. I'm not Autti and I'm Town. Also, I helped lynch a non Town as my very first vote. That buys me at least one opportunity to be wrong.

Because of this, it doesn't make sense for her to be the last wolf. The only way this would work was if she knew for sure that Klick was mafia, and the only way she'd know that was if she was his partner. Therefore, Princess is the last mafia.

See previous point.

Bulb, tell me why I would have shot bo if I was werewolf.

Bo was in the null/scummy area of everybody's reads, essentially putting him in the gray area. If he was scum, you got rid of one more member of the mafia faction, and if he was town, he had the potential to be extremely influential as the game progressed, as he was one of the stronger players. Essentially, it's a win-win.

I lynched him thinking he was the other werewolf. My goal was to take out one killing faction if at all possible. He was anti-Town so it didn't really matter to me as Town.

And you made that decision, analyzing all of the possible interactions of 40+ pages after only 17 minutes? I don't think so. Let's be honest, you were under extreme suspicion and you needed an out, so you bussed your buddy for towncred. Heck, you even congratulated him on his self-vote.

bulb because he kept trying to keep me from lynching klick yesterday

I was like "we should lynch klick and here's the reason why"

and he was all like "thats not a good reason, why not lynch mac?"

and I'm like "no mac is town, we lynch klick"

and he goes "why not mac? or why not anyone else who isn't klick? Also DBK is a townread of mine"

I don't lynch town reads. As for everything else, I was asked who my scumreads were. I was then asked why I thought Mac was mafia. Then you kept badgering me about that read, even though I said that I was not interested in a Mac lynch that day.

Now that Klick flipped mafia, Mac is no longer a suspect, so you 2 can go over and make out in a corner for all I care. Now are you done misrepping me, or do you want to continue to be butthurt about this?

Why is Mac no longer a suspect?

why is it that the mafia for some reason keep ending up on the townier side of his reads?

Because I had a town read on them. Although to be honest, I wasn't quite sure how I felt about Bo, and I was starting to lean scum on him d2.

he has two wolves in the scum pile

why is it that the mafia for some reason keep ending up on the townier side of his reads?

So I see one wolf in his pile. Unless you have information on Egg being the other wolf?

Also, you are in his Town pile. Are you saying you are mafia? That would make things easy.

Seriously. Princess, stop. I want to lynch the wolf, which means giving you a free pass today. Don't scum up the thread so much that I change my mind.

I don't even....

Regardless of whether it's bussing (she's maf) or just luck (she's wolf), the really scummy thing about her vote was its opportunism.

Bulba, I know you can do waaaaaaaaaay better than this. Like a lot.

So much this.

That wasn't the crux of the argument at all GM, and you know it. Princess's vote on Klick yesterday was a play to get town cred, which she affirms with each post that she makes. The only way for her to get towncred from the lynch was if she knew that Klick would flip scum, and the only way to know that for certain would be if she was his partner. It's basic deductive reasoning.

Your basic deductive reasoning is still ignoring the fact that none of the "this should gain me towncred" posts she made came until after the flip.

Who besides you had a town read on Bo? From what I remember, he was either seen as scum, leaning scum, or null.

As many people had Bo as town yesterday compared to those that had him as scum. E.g. me, GM, Bacde had townreads, Bulba, Mac, TNE had him as a scumread. No idea what Egg thought of him.

What if I'm just a townie who is trying to figure stuff out?

I believe you, but you need to get over your confirmation bias first before you can proceed.

What confirmation bias?

Long story short, Bulba's reasoning Princess is mafia is shit. For that matter, so is Bacde's reasoning she's wolf. We need to spend less time WIFOM'ing about which scummy person belongs to what team and spend more time lining up scumreads to send to the gallows. Would it be great to kill the wolf today and eliminate the NK? Yep. I just don't think there's a good way to find scum from a specific team(if anyone has an idea that doesn't involve more WIFOM feel free to correct me). The best we can do is just get scumbutts and rope em.

Bacde, Bulba, stop being snarky and bitching at each other over stupid shit.

Bulba, why does Klick's flip make Mac conf-town?

[thenewearth]

Did you guys lynch klick as a werewolf lynch or as an actual scum lynch?

I lynched him thinking he was the other werewolf. My goal was to take out one killing faction if at all possible. He was anti-Town so it didn't really matter to me as Town. I knew there was a chance of cross kill but figured the kill was more likely to land on Town. So I was hunting the other wolf. At this point my understanding is that there is one wolf and one mafia in the game. So, as long as we lynch anti-Town today we reduce the number of night kills by one tonight thus lowering the chance of another Town dying.

Why does it matter, TNE? For reads?

Actually... Yes

[thenewearth]

Why do you want to get rid of the mafia over the wolf?

No Not that. I would lynch bulba as mafia. Just that.

[Bacde]

VOTE: Princess Photon

[zabriel]

Vote Count 3.0

Bulba (Egg) - L-4
Egg (Bulba) - L-4
Princess Proton (Goodmorning, Syryana, Bacde) - L-2

Day 3 will end in (expired on 2013-05-30 23:00:00). With 8 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.

[Egg]

Thene, I voted klick thinking mafia. I didn't think he was aligned with fuzzy so process of elimination as far as what team he'd be on.

Syryana, yes, I think thene iis mafia. It's a combination of Day 1 scumminess and relational tells to Bo. Can you quote your "bulb isn't wolf" case for me?

I'm pretty positive that princess isn't mafia. I can see the wolf case there, but I think there are scummier players (bulb, goodmorning) who are more likely wolf.

[Princess Proton]

Princess is mafia, because her vote yesterday was an obvious bus. She was under a considerable amount of suspicion yesterday

There's no such thing as an obvious bus. Also, I didn't see all that much suspicion outside of my "welcome" post which was taken as snarky and not legit. There were no votes on the slot so it's not like there was any pressure there. The lack of pressure makes your theory really bad.

And you made that decision, analyzing all of the possible interactions of 40+ pages after only 17 minutes?

Don't be ridiculous. I didn't even read the 1st page. I looked at the current vote count and wanted to see if Klick was scum or an easy target. In ISO it was glaringly clear Klick was scum [I assumed wolf. I was wrong. So sue me.] and that the wagon was a good one so I voted. No further reading required.

However, the major difference between Bacde's case on you and your case on me/Egg is that Bacde actually has some non-WIFOM points against you.

Really? What non-WIFOM points?

@Princess Proton: I asked you this:

See response to Bulb above. Did not read.

She thought that Klick was a werewolf for "associative reasons"

yet never found a single reason that Klick was independently scum

Don't be silly. I had independent reasons. I just didn't need to build a case because the day was over like an hour later.

[Egg]

Princess, two things about 1077. One, Bo's scum read on your slot was probably legitimate. I don't think he was just looking for big wagons, especially now knowing that klick was his buddy. I think he wanted you lynched, but was setting up a bus in case he needed it. He had autti as scum late in Day 1. That's why you aren't mafia in my eyes. He'd look for another option Day 2. Two, mafia have NO NK. Werewolves can kill EVERY night. That is why everyone wants werewolves dead today and that is why I'm not voting thene who I am confident is mafia. Now where did you come up with the even/odd night thing? It looks so specific it could be fake.

1090 by princess is a massive twist of bacde's words.