NY 164: Maniacal Street Mafia (Anticlimatically finished.)

[mastin2]

Bulbazak is at L-1!

<<< Seanald and Bacde have been prodded. Four additional warnings for activity have been sent. You guys need to pick up the pace. >>>

One-Hundred-Thirty-First Votecount

:

(Thirteenth Votecount of Day Four,

AKA, the "Perfectly timed for a votecount." votecount.

)

Bulbazak - 7 (Nero Cain, ThAdmiral, Seanald, CrashTextDummie, Desperado, Human Destroyer, Rena)

Rena - 3 (ffullisade, Cephrir, Nachomamma8)

ThAdmiral - 1 (Bacde)
Nero Cain - 1 (Bulbazak)
Cephrir - 1 (PeregrineV)

Not Voting - 2 (Amethyst Kitty, penguin_alien)

With

15

alive, it's

8

to lynch.

Day Four's deadline is Wednesday, July 31st, @ 12:30 PM PST, which is in (expired on 2013-07-31 12:30:00).

Spoiler: Changes from last votecount

Bulbazak - 7 (Nero Cain, ThAdmiral, Seanald, CrashTextDummie, Desperado, Human Destroyer, Rena)
Rena - 3 (ffullisade, Cephrir,

Nachomamma8

)
PeregrineV - 0 (

Nachomamma8

)
ThAdmiral - 1 (Bacde)
Nero Cain - 1 (Bulbazak)
Cephrir - 1 (PeregrineV)

Not Voting - 2 (Amethyst Kitty, penguin_alien)

Last votecount was page 207, post 5154.

Spoiler: Player Vote History D4

CrashTextDummie: Nero Cain->Bulbazak
Cephrir: Rena->PeregrineV->Rena
Nachomamma8: PeregrineV->Rena
PeregrineV: Nachomamma8->Cephrir
Nero Cain: Bulbazak
Bacde: Nachomamma8->ThAdmiral
Bulbazak: Nero Cain
Desperado: Amethyst Kitty->PeregrineV->Bulbazak
penguin_alien: Rena->Unvote
Seanald: Bulbazak
ThAdmiral: Bulbazak
Rena: Bulbazak
Amethyst Kitty:
ffullisade: PeregrineV->Rena
Human Destroyer: Bulbazak->ThAdmiral->Bulbazak

Spoiler: Vote History D4

On Wed, Jul 7/10/13 @ 07:28a,

Human Destroyer

votes

Nachomamma8

in post 4831.
On Wed, Jul 7/10/13 @ 10:11a,

Nero Cain

votes

Bulbazak

in post 4832.
On Wed, Jul 7/10/13 @ 10:15a,

Bacde

votes

Nachomamma8

in post 4833.
On Wed, Jul 7/10/13 @ 02:24p,

Bulbazak

votes

Nero Cain

in post 4836.
On Wed, Jul 7/10/13 @ 02:33p,

Cephrir

votes

Rena

in post 4838.
On Thu, Jul 7/11/13 @ 02:26p,

PeregrineV

votes

Nachomamma8

in post 4867.
On Thu, Jul 7/11/13 @ 05:18p,

Nachomamma8

votes

PeregrineV

in post 4870.
On Thu, Jul 7/11/13 @ 06:04p,

CrashTextDummie

votes

Nero Cain

in post 4871.
On Fri, Jul 7/12/13 @ 08:38a,

Desperado

votes

Amethyst Kitty

in post 4879.
On Fri, Jul 7/12/13 @ 08:10p,

ThAdmiral

votes

Bulbazak

in post 4899.
On Sun, Jul 7/14/13 @ 04:25p,

Seanald

votes

Bulbazak

in post 4937.
On Mon, Jul 7/15/13 @ 00:12a,

penguin_alien

votes

Rena

in post 4942.
On Mon, Jul 7/15/13 @ 04:10p,

ffullisade

votes

PeregrineV

in post 4960.
On Mon, Jul 7/15/13 @ 04:15p,

Cephrir

votes

PeregrineV

in post 4961.
On Mon, Jul 7/15/13 @ 05:05p,

Desperado

votes

PeregrineV

in post 4965.
On Mon, Jul 7/15/13 @ 07:22p,

CrashTextDummie

votes

Bulbazak

in post 4966.
On Wed, Jul 7/17/13 @ 09:30a,

penguin_alien

unvotes

Rena

in post 4998.
On Wed, Jul 7/17/13 @ 04:18p,

Desperado

unvotes

PeregrineV

and votes

Bulbazak

in post 5018.
On Thu, Jul 7/18/13 @ 09:10a,

Human Destroyer

unvotes

Bulbazak

and votes

ThAdmiral

in post 5029.
On Thu, Jul 7/18/13 @ 12:57p,

Bacde

votes

ThAdmiral

in post 5044.
On Thu, Jul 7/18/13 @ 01:20p,

ffullisade

votes

Rena

in post 5046.
On Thu, Jul 7/18/13 @ 02:41p,

PeregrineV

votes

Cephrir

in post 5051.
On Sat, Jul 7/20/13 @ 07:48a,

Human Destroyer

unvotes

ThAdmiral

and votes

Bulbazak

in post 5129.
On Sun, Jul 7/21/13 @ 00:46a,

Cephrir

votes

Rena

in post 5136.
On Mon, Jul 7/22/13 @ 11:34a,

Rena

votes

Bulbazak

in post 5142.
On Mon, Jul 7/22/13 @ 01:12p,

Nachomamma8

votes

Rena

in post 5159.

[CrashTextDummie]

CTD, it's like you're purposely being obtuse. Scum wouldn't want to NK me. I never said that they wouldn't want to get me lynched, especially since that'd be the only reason to leave me alone during the night phase. Any actual research into any game I've ever played in will tell you that this is the case (except for Newbie 1337, where I apparently JK slipped and was killed n1). And my reads have nothing to do with who is or isn't on my wagon, especially since I've been clear about my reads since the beginning, and have been calling the same people scum all game.

Your wording was unclear then. "Keep around as long as possible" is pretty much the opposite of "try to lynch at the earliest opportunity". I think it's believable enough that you were talking about NK though, so I'll drop this point.

I have literally no idea why Rena is not being instantly lynched at the moment, though. ThAd was blocked and Rena was blocked last night. ThAd's power is easily confirmable once he actually uses it (AKA he's not going to live if he keeps getting blocked OR Rena flips town), Rena's power is not. There's absolutely no reason for KK to protect Bulbazak last night, no reason for him to be antitown as fuck and block ThAd. Meaning Rena is lying about being blocked and needs to be lynched pretty badly.

Hate this post a lot. I disagree that there's no reason for KK to protect Bulba, but that's not why I hate it.

Nacho suggests that ThAd should be lynched if he keeps getting blocked, but his entire point here is that ThAd was blocked and Rena was not, so there should be no reason to assume that he won't be blocked in the future (unless Rena flips roleblocker herself). If we lynch Rena and she flips town, we actually make it easier for scum to block ThAd because they have one PR less to juggle. Nacho also suggests that ThAd should be lynched if Rena flips town, which is convenient as fuck if my suspicions are true that scum blocked Rena last night.

Even if you can't fathom that KK had a hand in this, there are possibilities for both claimed PRs to fail that don't involve two scum roleblocks (mafia doc on Bulba, ThAd lying about his target, etc.).

Nacho is basically setting up lynches on both our claimed power roles.

[CrashTextDummie]

Ffullisade, I'm quoting this again because I'd actually like a response.

Ffullisade, I'm quoting this because I think you might have missed it:

Ffullisade, it seems to me like your case against PV largely depends on Bulba flipping scum. At least your primary reason for suspecting him (herding votes onto Slandaar) does in my opinion. Please consider moving your vote there.

Even if you think Rena is scum, why does her being on the Bulba wagon make you dislike it? Multiball, etc.

[Nachomamma8]

CTD, what are your reads?

[Nachomamma8]

mafia doc on Bulba, ThAd lying about his target, etc.

i don't really think mafia doc would protect bulba-town and i think bulba is town.
i don't think ThAd is lying about his target.

[Human Destroyer]

HD, if you don't think that ThAd is the vig., are you saying that he's lying about targetting me, and if so, for what purpose? What does that tell you about my alignment?

1. Yes.
2. To pretend he's a vig. Duh.
3. Nothing.

[Nachomamma8]

Nacho suggests that ThAd should be lynched if he keeps getting blocked, but his entire point here is that ThAd was blocked and Rena was not, so there should be no reason to assume that he won't be blocked in the future (unless Rena flips roleblocker herself). If we lynch Rena and she flips town, we actually make it easier for scum to block ThAd because they have one PR less to juggle. Nacho also suggests that ThAd should be lynched if Rena flips town, which is convenient as fuck if my suspicions are true that scum blocked Rena last night.

Any power role should be lynched if they "keep getting blocked". You understand the reasoning for that, don't you? I also believe that Rena and ThAd didn't just happen to both get blocked last night because that doesn't make any sense at all; you can say "oh, maybe KK protected Bulbazak or mafia doc protected Bulbazak" but I believe that those situations are unlikely; I don't think that KK would target Rena or Bulbazak or ThAd last night, and I find it unlikely that there is an additional blocking role to one scum roleblocker, and I don't find it likely that scumdoc would be targetting bulbazak over their own buddies (since I find it highly unlikely bulbazak is scum) when there is a vig and an opposing scumteam to worry about.

[Rena]

Isn't it a bit risky for hypo-scum (unlike to be lynched) to keep claiming no result on claimed town PRs?

[Nachomamma8]

not if they have a watcher power

[Rena]

That would be a pointless role for scum, other than to confirm themselves as town.

[Nachomamma8]

or to hunt the other team
or to look for power roles

[Rena]

Brain fart. You get the name of person who targetted aswell. I can see how that would work.

[ffullisade]

Ffullisade, I'm quoting this again because I'd actually like a response.

Ffullisade, I'm quoting this because I think you might have missed it:

Ffullisade, it seems to me like your case against PV largely depends on Bulba flipping scum. At least your primary reason for suspecting him (herding votes onto Slandaar) does in my opinion. Please consider moving your vote there.

Even if you think Rena is scum, why does her being on the Bulba wagon make you dislike it? Multiball, etc.

I am actually not sure how much Mollie and I are in agreement about Bulba. She was scum-reading him on day 3. I wasn't. But, we are very much in agreement that Rena is scum.

I see two p much mutually exclusive reasons for Peregrine to try and get votes onto Slaandar

if he is scum

. He could have been other-team hunting. Or he could have been protecting Bulba.

I think it is the former because he's now pushing a theory that there are more scum among the neighbors in his recent posts. Though it could be an indirect effort to scare up some Seanald votes, I guess.

You are right that Rena could be other-team hunting. That doesn't mean she's correct. And a scum-read placing the L-1 vote sets off an alarm or 3.

[CrashTextDummie]

i don't think ThAd is lying about his target.

But you think ThAd should be lynched if he keeps getting blocked.

CTD, what are your reads?

Scum:
Nero
Bulba

Higher likelihood of being scum:
Seanald
PV
Nacho

Lower likelihood of being scum:
ThAd
Despo
Human Destroyer
Penguin Alien
Cephrir

Town:
Rena
Bacde
AK
Ffullisade

Based on interactions, I suspect the top end of this list to be populated mostly by red scum. Probably some blue scum in the lower likelihood pile. ThAd has been bumped down because his fake-out actually makes some sense as a town play. Cephrir has been bumped down because I think his play has looked rather town recently. Rest of those players I haven't really been paying a lot of attention to in while.

[Nachomamma8]

But you think ThAd should be lynched if he keeps getting blocked.

Yes. If ThAd doesn't manage to get off his shot off by the time we're getting down to the wire, he should probably be lynched. I don't think he'd be lying about his target as town.

[Nachomamma8]

Why do you find Rena town?

[CrashTextDummie]

Any power role should be lynched if they "keep getting blocked". You understand the reasoning for that, don't you?

Of course I do, that's how these things go.That's why I don't think it's a good idea to eliminate the only player who has the potential to stop scum from blocking ThAd indefinitely. If we have another night where both ThAd and Rena fail to produce results, then we can talk.

Talk me through it again why you don't find it feasible that KK targeted Bulba, a claimed VT and a strong town read for him (the two primary factors in JK targeting). Keep in mind that there was in fact an attempt to kill him.

[Nachomamma8]

Talk me through it again why you don't find it feasible that KK targeted Bulba, a claimed VT and a strong town read for him (the two primary factors in JK targeting). Keep in mind that there was in fact an attempt to kill him.

Because it would be unlikely that scum would shoot him and there's no reason he would attempt to protect Bulba against ThAd while ThAd was trying to prove himself.

[Nachomamma8]

If we have another night where both ThAd and Rena fail to produce results, then we can talk.

Would be happy with saving Rena for another day. Unfortunately, Rena is the only not-bad lynch with support right now and people have proven themselves to move very, very slowly in this game.

[ffullisade]

If we have another night where both ThAd and Rena fail to produce results, then we can talk.

Would be happy with saving Rena for another day. Unfortunately, Rena is the only not-bad lynch with support right now and people have proven themselves to move very, very slowly in this game.

Who would you rather see lynched?

[Nachomamma8]

PV. Seanald.

[Nachomamma8]

CTD also no longer makes me happy like he used to.

[Desperado]

PV.

Seanald.

^That makes me angry.

[Nachomamma8]

yeah i'm sorry babe.
don't get mad at me and lynch a townie for no reason because of your anger.

[CrashTextDummie]

not if they have a watcher power

What's your theory here exactly? Rena is a watcher who's scumbuddies with a roleblocker who targetted ThAd, and she claims to have targeted him as well with no result?

Why do you find Rena town?

I thought fuzzy's play was consistent with having a power role and reasonable enough for a player who seemed to be under time constraints/unable to keep up with the game. I don't remember any action of his that strongly indicated scum, though admittedly I haven't looked at his ISO in a long time. To my knowledge, Rena hasn't done anything heinous either (except under-contribute, which in her case is more likely the result of her never really getting into the game but sticking around because she drew a PR, than of her being scum, in my opinion). And although it's been a long time ago that I remember playing with her and her meta has changed considerably, her thought-processes and mannerisms still remind me of her town play.

Bottom line though, I trust her claim.