Newbie 1436 ~ Game Over

[Sakura Hana]

So Bert, you think there's a chance ffery could be scum? otherwise scum for you should be obvious.

[Sakura Hana]

And if the answer to that question is yes, i'd like to know why.

[Bert]

So Bert, you think there's a chance ffery could be scum? otherwise scum for you should be obvious.

I have not ruled it out.

She's a competent scumplayer. Period.

She seems town, and I don't see how she has been scummy, but we are in LYLO now, and notscience has seemed townie too. Something has to give. Something's wrong.

I would like to know particularly what to look for with her.

My biggest worry on N2 was that if we ever get to a 3 person LYLO, then figuring out who between ns/ffery is scum, and also trying to avoid myself getting lynched, that is a steep mountain to climb.

[Sakura Hana]

So she seems town, but you're letting your paranoia eat your gut? WHat happened yesterday because of that?

[Malakittens]

3.01

With 5 alive it's 3 votes to lynch.

Voting for:

*Fferyllt -
*Bert -
*Wisdom -
*Sakura Hana -
*notscience -

Not voting: Fferyllt, notscience, Wisdom, Bert, Sakura Hana [5]

Day 3 ends in (expired on 2013-11-02 00:02:00)

[fferyllt]

Have you reread F16's meta analysis on me from the newbie game we recently played? He meta'd me to within an inch of my life in that game.

Here's a recent newbie scum game: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=29870

The rest of my recent scum games are hydra games, including all the completed Morph the Cat games.

[Bert]

So she seems town, but you're letting your paranoia eat your gut? WHat happened yesterday because of that?

If you really want to know, yesterday I REALLY REALLY at times wanted to flip flop on Cabd.

I really did, but Wisdom was really convincing. And it was a big disconnect with me and Cabd. Like I expected him to read me better, much like Ffery expected me to read her better in 1415.

I had so much paranoia built up because Cabd and I have talked outside this game prior to this game, and he talked about Castle after following it because his girlfriend Lynx was in 1482. And he followed 1489, said he knew my towngame, he followed Popcorn 243 Micro, came in and said that he could tell I was town there...rather easily that I was being genuine. He said my Castle fake paranoia was juts fake, although he was confbiased because Mala let it slip that I was scum in a Skype chat during D2.

But he was so boastful about that, that I believed his notebook on me would give him the insights on me, and then he went after me d1, and then that gambit when he is known for gambits as both alignments...him saying he was conftown.

I could not shake that paranoia off. I expected Cabd to flip scum until twilight

[Sakura Hana]

Did you not trust my read on him?

[Bert]

So she seems town, but you're letting your paranoia eat your gut? WHat happened yesterday because of that?

Cabd flipped town, that's what happened. And now there are only 3 people other than you and two scum in them.

I'm wrong on notscience who seems JUST like his old town meta, or I'm wrong on Ffery, or I'm wrong on both.

Plus Wisdom claimed doctor which I don't buy at this point. Before that, I thought it couldn't be them, but now TSO died, agi is clear and died, GM died, Cabd died.

My 4 scumspects from d1, 3 are dead and flipped town, except Kaze. That's really really bad.

[Bert]

Did you not trust my read on him?

No because I was feeling really arrogant after what happened in 501 Stacking the Deck and you got manipulated by Tammy and Tierce.

And when Wisdom told us "don't let Cabd convince all of you to change your mind," a lot of paranoia built up in me when Wisdom kept telling you that yo uwere being easily manipulated.

[Bert]

Have you reread F16's meta analysis on me from the newbie game we recently played? He meta'd me to within an inch of my life in that game.

Here's a recent newbie scum game: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=29870

The rest of my recent scum games are hydra games, including all the completed Morph the Cat games.

I'll go skim F16's meta of you again, but I'm a meta-dodger myself so...sorry paranoid, but yes I will go look at that now.

And @Sakura, I'm so clueless today, make me sheep you because I have no idea in hell who's scum. Tomorrow I'll probably tell you I wanna make my own decision and block everyone else out, but that's my arrogant prick part of me speaking, make me remember this post and quote it if I think otherwise.

[Sakura Hana]

Bert, why dont you use your head and stop your paranoia just because someone is a good player and actually try to read them? We all saw with Cabd's flip what paranoia can do to a game.

P-Edit: Yeah but when i got manipulated by Tammy and Tierce i was still kind of a newbie to mafia you know.

[Bert]

Bert, why dont you use your head and stop your paranoia just because someone is a good player and actually try to read them? We all saw with Cabd's flip what paranoia can do to a game.

P-Edit: Yeah but when i got manipulated by Tammy and Tierce i was still kind of a newbie to mafia you know.

My head? I'll go read the game, but I think it's notscience and Wisdom, from notscience's really tunnely play D1 where he juts avoided interactino other than CABD IS SCUM, HERE'S A CASE, TSO IS SCUM, HERE"S A CASE.

Head: Wisdom's claim was fake and last-minute he claimed while not even being at lynch -1, because he wants us to join the Cabd wagon and end the day ASAP. He literally went "IM THE DOC, GO LYNCH CABD NOW OR YOURE STUPID" It was lacking that passion that I usually see in him, that's an intuitive thing

P-edit: I didn't know you were a newbie then. You seemed to play fine in 497 Tit for Tat

[Bert]

Like ns was SO confident about his scumreads

I rarely see that from him

and from people who aren't THAT easy to read, he started on page 3 or 4 and started tunneling like heck.

[fferyllt]

Did you not trust my read on him?

I didn't. I felt like I have way more experience with Cabd-scum both playing against him as town and playing with him in the morph hydra. I thought you were being naive, especially on day 1 when you offered to be lynched instead.

I dunno. Maybe he's right that I was bound to eventually get him mislynched.

[Sakura Hana]

Well anyway, what's done is done, so for now let's see who the scum of you guys are.

[Sakura Hana]

Suddenly the thread dies... oh well off to sleep.

[Bert]

Yeah sorry I'm back, but I got distracted cuz I just got asked to the homecoming formal tomorrow night. *sigh* never danced before ever or been to any dance of any kind, this is gonna be so disastrous LOL

Good night and sleep well!

[Bert]

Have you reread F16's meta analysis on me from the newbie game we recently played? He meta'd me to within an inch of my life in that game.

Found it:

Spoiler:

Analysis of ffery's meta

Town 1) BSG Mafia

Called passive by orcinus who says that she is less engaged with the game. Immediately put under pressure for most of the game with other players guessing that passiveness is caused due to being pressured. Posts lead up to suspicion on buldermar. In the end, voted buldermar while asking Orcinus who to lynch. Asks to be lynched that day rather than the following day since she is worried about buldermar setting her up to be an awesome townie and then FOSsing her next DP for not lynching scum day 1. As time goes on, starts to read Buldermar as town (despite the fact that he was scum). What is notable here is that she is already planning for the next day as to what will happen if she is lynched. She is also called extremely scummy for not fighting her lynch but this just seems to be the way she rolls. Her post 620 also tries to get town thinking about what will happen after she is lynched much as she is doing in this game.

Town 2) Newbie 1389

As IC. Gets accused of being defensive when she responds to an accusation to another player that giving townreads is scummy. Supports her meta style with links. Asks probing question about why a player feels that another is scum and comments a little when they provide their reasoning. When asked what her reads were, says that the person asking her is possible scum but that she needs more time to figure it out and that she could be rusty. Has a little uncertainty, likely because it is beginning of the game and reads haven’t developed yet. When a newbie prods her, she says “I am done waiting for reads” and starts posting ISOs. Does 3 ISOs and then votes her biggest scumread. Reads are not very well developed and there is no mention of trajectories. Explains how Bauss’s stance went from indirect to direct and that is what caused the change in her read. When Lynx votes for a player, ffery wants to chat with Lynx about that player and starts discussing reads. Parallels with her asking Mutt to talk to her. But in this game, her analysis is very detailed. With Mutt, not so much.

Town 3) Newbie 1364

Reads MsMarangal as scum for a “pretty bad looking” argument on dissonance. Asks very specific questions, says that she missed Nick’s lie. Gives her opinions about a case that nickthename made on Broseidon and says that MsMarangal was buddying him and not the other way around. Continues to FOS the same person that she had initially called scum. Disagrees with Marangal calling the progression of her scumreads’s posts “excellent.” The tone is slightly different and she is less wishy-washy. Uses strong words like “this is gold” or “left the case in shreds.” Also says that “these analyses look pretty damn town-motivated.” Shows a lot more conviction and less wishy-washyness. Continues asking very specific questions to a few players. Questions to MsMarangal are extremely detailed, specific, and probing. Is tonally very firm “I have no idea what your case on Nick was.” Does ISO’s on several players. Keeps pushing the lynch on MsM. Isn’t very uncertain or wishy-washy. Is reasonably certain of affiliation. Is suspicious of flexibility where the player unvotes and says he needs to do a re-read since scum want to be flexible to allow the town to chose a direction. 419 shows more specificity. Pro-actively scumhunts. Does a lot more than what was required of her. Picks up on too many dots and less connections when a player distinctly states that he forgot something and then explicitly mentions going after Nacho.
Note that the tediously exhaustive ISOs are not something she does as town. This could very well be a null tell.
A great tell: said she found conflict scummy. So, this is a null tell. However, the response to conflict was to do tons and tons of ISOs. A stark contrast from her scumgame where she merely states that she was confused and demands more cases from the town while being quite vague.
478 shows a lot of willingness to look for evidence. Wonders whether Chris invented those categories on the fly. Once she verifies it, she mentions that at least Dodgy was a technical term in Chris’s lexicon.

This is one game that undermines my townread because ffery in this game is nothing like what she was in that game. However, as a caveat, note that she seemed to be particularly hard-working and willing to dig into multiple ISOs in that game so it is a rather high standard to which to hold her now.

Scum 1) The popcorn mafia

Play is slightly different because she didn’t replace in but none of her initial posts had any content whatsoever. Says that she is bored and wants to gun. There is the general tendency to sit back and not be pro-active. 297 has a lot of very weak reads. No conviction in any of them. Posts very little content and is mostly very unsure. Barely ever justifies any of her reads. Never mentions anything about trajectory or anything else.

Scum 2) Newbie 1403

Mentions that the player who was lynched Day1 wanted to scrutinize a few others, asks how this is going. Provides reads: "

Zebe looked townish. KBW terrible but lynchbait, proceed with caution. TheGargantula is an improvement over predecessor but did notice something that was an amished tell.

" Says that she found the game contentious and that she found some of the cases difficult to follow. Notes in her wiki that town had some serious confirmation bias. Asks each person to lay out their cases against each other and against her scumpartner (thor). Asks Thor to lay out his case as well. Scum motive: let the town fight amongst themselves. In 604, attacks KBW asking “so you are discounting that huge towntell made earlier.” The tone of the post is accusatory since it assumes that the towntell existed and was huge and asked whether KBW discounted it. Mentions that she is bothered by Valius which is a really weak scumread. Switches reads and says that she wants to lynch between Valius, Zebe, and Thor. Valius was the leading wagon. Zebe read was switched from the initial weak non-reason. Thor is her buddy. Weird that she wants to lynch Thor despite Thor and Valius going hard against each other. Asks for links to games to substantiate a claim. Discusses with Thor as to where to place her votes.

- Says “

Gah. So many contradictory stances in this game

.” Wants to stay back and allow town to lynch themselves. Does not want to take part in the conflict when it doesn’t concern her. Does not hesitate in throwing out scumteam pairs. Says she has to rethink everything.
- Tries to keep her head out of the major conflicts.
- Had weak reads that she switched over (Mutt read here parallels Zebe read in that game) but only a little since she elaborates on Mutt read a little.

Scum 3) Newbie 1319

In 232, she does her first ISO as scum. The first thing to note that it wasn’t very detailed and doesn’t really dig into the motivations of players. At least, it is nowhere near as detailed as her multiple ISOs tracking down trajectories of other players. Keeps a reads list detailing all of her reads. Won't say too much more about this since it is apparently not her usual playstyle.

General Notes

1) When she doesn’t understand a case, she tries to deconstruct it and question further as town. However, as scum, tries to stay on the sidelines and pick a case while fanning the flames. In this game, she definitely has attacked Jason upon replacing in and defended JKLM. As scum, I'd expect her to ask one of them to re-iterate their cases, ask clarification questions and as deadline approaches, settle for a lynch. However, she pretty much strong-armed the direction of the day phase and presented her reads very strongly. This aligns with her town meta much more than scum.
2) Has an incredible amount of attention to detail and is very specific about digging to the bottom of a player’s motivation. - This concerned me a little since she wasn't really paying attention to detail. But it is not enough to outweigh my townread.
3) Seems to be more sure and convicted as town but the game where she got lynched is evidence that this isn't a surefire tell and she can also be unsure and wishy-washy as town.

Thought process in this game:
Came in, thought bestwillcui was scummy with Jason a second scumread. A reread of bestwillcui’s ISO made her think he was town with Jason being scum. As she reads through Jason’s ISO, the read strengthened and she comments on every post that Jason has made. Townreads Muttley for not voting Jason since given ffery’s current stance, it ensures that Jason gets lynched today. Bert thinks Jason is town first. This point is important is another reason that undermines my townread. But overall, I won't lynch ffery today if I can help it and it is at all possible to convince any of you guys to lynch somebody else.

[Wisdom]

My head? I'll go read the game, but I think it's notscience and Wisdom, from notscience's really tunnely play D1 where he juts avoided interactino other than CABD IS SCUM, HERE'S A CASE, TSO IS SCUM, HERE"S A CASE.

This is bullshit, notscience does this tunnely play as town and you know it.

Head: Wisdom's claim was fake and last-minute he claimed while not even being at lynch -1, because he wants us to join the Cabd wagon and end the day ASAP. He literally went "IM THE DOC, GO LYNCH CABD NOW OR YOURE STUPID" It was lacking that passion that I usually see in him, that's an intuitive thing

wtf is this? I softclaimed from my first posts and I expected everyone to figure it out but Sakura and agi (and even you, who talked about Trackers) kept not understanding it and wanted me to spell it out. What choice did I have?

[Wisdom]

This looks like Bert/ffery. Sakura stated she thinks it's notscience and me so Bert also tries to suspect notscience and me. Unless it's actually Bert/ns and Bert hopes I'll be the mislynch over ns.

[Wisdom]

@ns
Who is scum now?

[Bert]

This is bullshit, notscience does this tunnely play as town and you know it.

Notsci did his usual town play in my mini normal. He was scum. Giving him a free meta pass is bad.

[Bert]

wtf is this? I softclaimed from my first posts and I expected everyone to figure it out but Sakura and agi (and even you, who talked about Trackers) kept not understanding it and wanted me to spell it out. What choice did I have?

You kept saying "possible Doctor slot"

I kept talking about Trackers because that's what I thought Sakura was when she was crumbing stuff before you replaced in

[Bert]

So Wisdom, why is Ffery scum?