A uPick of Ice & Fire - Day 12 - #REKT?

[SafetyDance]

MC took the dive because that's what his role stipulates him to do, because wifoming and keeping the real scum alive is his reason for existing. Not because the scum team chose him to fall on his sword.

And if there is only 2 left in the scum-team left (ie 1 third party in game) then it makes sense because of self-preservation that there would be no sacrificing.

Of course the MC wifom applies to AB, but it also applies to Magua too. Which is why I'm putting less stock in what MC was saying D9 because they knew they were gone and in hindsight their posting reflects that.

[Cephrir]

We find it highly unlikely that there would be no N1 deaths in a multiball setup.

I don't want to lynch SD anymore.

Did Syry get replaced by Alchemist or is that mechanical?

@ Garruk: It's D2. Drop some towntells so I can decide if I need to tell Fish to back off or not.

@ Nautilius: Why did you end up on Thor and why did you quote Tammy's post when you did?

Vote: Cephrir

PEdit: PNJ's 1824 is really yucky. Why are Amrun and Ooba scum?

- Des

A) Noting that MC basically followed the crowd on the initial run up of SD.
B) Hey look it's them voting me, I guess Magua is blind?
B2) By the way at least 30% of this iso is them arguing with me but I'll refrain from quoting the entire thing at you, you're welcome.

Except meta doesn't work that way -- you're implicitly making the argument that his meta is irrelevant because it is easily manipulable which is just wrong for a variety of reasons I don't have the time to get into now, not the least of which is Safety's competency (or lack thereof).

You don't have "meta" on SD, you have one game where he did this thing once.

SafetyDance is a human being who is obviously capable of adapting his persona on the internet. If you have a single game where he was pressured as scum and clammed up that JUST finished, you cannot definitively say "he will always clam up to pressure as scum unless he's REALLY improved." #1 it wouldn't require any improvement to identify this situation as similar to one in which he just failed and to react oppositely. #2 one game isn't a sample size. Maybe he had a bad day and couldn't handle it that game. Maybe maybe maybe.

In this game, he came back into a 60 page thread with a bullshit policy vote and then referred to himself as a policy lynch in an attempt to diffuse pressure on him, had to be goaded into claiming, refused to give reads even though he's resigned himself to death, and left with a promise not to return before deadline. He's scum.

- Des

I can hardly talk because I was in a similar place at this point but this push is pretty hard, and in hindsight perhaps a little too gleeful.

I don't want to lynch SD anymore.

What changed your mind?

He sent a rabbit to us and I don't think a scum JOAT would use the fruit vendor ability N1.

- Des

MC proceeds to get really really stuck on this point and continually insists SD literally cannot possibly be scum because of this night action. I've flipped back and forth several times on what this actually means- was MC trying to gain towncred from this, to simulate the expressions of others (there has been a lot of 'I think X is town because he used X beneficial action on me" which btw I think is bullshit overall), or to fake confirm SD for having an ability he actually did not have (highly unlikely)- but it still bears comment. ATM I think this works in SD's favor so long as we assume the rabbit is indeed real (very very likely either way).

@ PNJ: If that's all you think I'm doing, why don't you just leave me alone and let me dig myself a hole?

@ Quadz et al: I already said that I would expect a scum JOAT to hang on to his fruit vend to at least pretend like he might try to use it to confirm himself as town, which is the only positive benefit of a fruit. Yelling at me and calling it "bad" because that's null and not townie without actually engaging my reasons for why I think what I think is pretty scummy

@ mollie: Can you talk to me about Goat people?

Unvote
Vote: Nautilis

Really don't like how you've had us in your potential scum pool all game but have made almost 0 effort to sort us.

Why is Amrun scummy? What's changed from your lynch pool list from yesterday?

- Des

MC does this quite a few times where they'll slip a vote onto someone they have expressed zero suspicion of before the post in question. In this case Naut is nowhere near getting lynched ever ever ever yet so probably just a play to fake townie paranoia.

You are saying he would not use his fruit N1 because town wouldn't use their fruit N1. You are literally saying "he is town for making a suboptimal town play, because scum would make the optimal town play." Do you not see where the logic falls apart?

Yes, that is literally what I am saying. There is more town motivation to using the fruit N1 than scum. What aren't you getting about this?

I think you're town now.
I was sort of hoping we could Walking Dead this game and keeping you in the pool was my hint to you. I know that people can be lurky as town though, so I've just been waiting for you to be cool and town it up for me.

Amrun is scum because she's lurking like hell and doesn't know why I find that suspicious.

I think Walking Dead was a unique situation that isn't likely to replicate itself--if you look back our D1 townblock is almost entirely the group of people that were most active during the 4 hour D1--maybe it was just circumstances or coincidence, but the town was really, REALLY ready to start playing that game and all of the scum got left out completely (sans Thor). I don't see that sort of situation happening here, do you?

Personally I appreciate humongous note dumps. Just make it better than Messiah's if you're going to do that.

Keep beating that drum.

@ Ooba: How is you scumreading me for "overjustifying a townread" where a town would just say "gut/vibe" any different from what you're accusing me of? We are both re-purposing a subjective conclusion (Town/Scum would/wouldn't do X) in order to produce an objective determination in pursuit of read clarity. Are you basically saying that it's scummy that I have townreads?

Unvote
Vote: Displaced

- Des

Now, this displaced vote in a void appears to have nothing to do with anything. I can surmise there was probably a minicase on him at this point, but MC does not comment on it whatsoever. This proves to be something of a trend.

This is just wrong - They don't have to interact so there to be links between them. Messiah's "Oh no! Peace is also voting SM - I'm off this wagon" was strange. Messiah's future posts generally suspicious\questions others (like Cephrir) but not Peace's slot - in fact it's not mentioned at all.
Note: Messiah's D2 vote on displaced after I point this out is kinda dodgy too.

Let's look at what actually happened:

@ macmollie: the safetydance wagon is totally whack, I agree. What're you seeing with Stup? Is it because the wagon's been a little too easy? Because I feel like Nautilus, Cephrir, and Goat all basically just sheeped it and it's making me uneasy. And who are you looking at if not them?

mebbe he comes off as forced cos he is newbtown worried about getting lynched.

or you mebbe right and he is scum and his scummates are trying to bus him.

there are actually a lot of reasons why he may across as "forced" but it may have nothing to do with his alignment.

he seems new. he seems like he is trying to find his way. <-----no way I am voting that, if he did something outstandingly scummy then yeah but he hasn't.that is why if he flips scum I will think it is a bus and if he flips town we know where to look.

Yeah, Peace being the 4th one who seemingly divined that Stup was scum upon reread is enough for me to go elsewhere.

Unvote
Vote: Zdenek

- Des

And Peace had already replaced out by the time this exchance occurred, followed by displaced doing approximately nothing until he got replaced himself, so what exactly should I have been mentioning about the slot that you think I was missing?

What did you point out and what was dodgy about the vote?

Vote: Elle

- Des

In post 1000, we hop onto Zdenek without really ever mentioning him before this post. And in this post we vote elle for no discernible reason at all (this is not the early early elle wagon). Incidentally it's worth noting ooba pretty much just slam dunked MC and their response doesn't address the point.

I'm trying to figure out what MC's MO is in terms of how they vote for town versus scumbuddies. Their votes come in two varieties; the vote for no reason at all, and the vote for reasons they don't really give until the vote post. I guess I'm probably trying too hard to find a pattern. In fact their general lack of trajectory on anyone makes it difficult to figure out when they are/aren't bussing. At least, that's what I would say if I was actually good at this scumhunting thing. Seeing as I actually did read Messiah correctly though, I figure maybe I can further divine their motivations as well?

Is enough. It takes a particularly ticklish brand of stones to call out the hammer even if it was fast. Someone with more time: I'd love to see if there was activity from anyone on the wagon after Garruk posted and BEFORE I hammered.

And as for yesterdays hammer. Yea, I was only on 12. Now that I'm all caught up the only thing that would have given me pause is that there is no flips.

And I say pause. Because I would have still done it. Amrun was in my notes (which if someone reaaaaaaly wants to see and laugh at I guess I can post) from post 1 and that never changed. Riding the lurking dragon doesn't change that.

More importantly though: I have role-reasons for wanting that hammer. I also want this one.

I am struggling to find the words to describe how I feel about your comment on someone having the "balls" to call out your hammer. I guess the best way to put it is that you must have a brass set yourself to try and make someone out to be the reactionary one when your action was questionable at best and a pure scum move at worst. You admit that you were 12 pages deep when you flipped over to the last page to see Amrun at L-1 and, lucky day, hammered.

I also like the fact that you ask someone with more time to investigate what activity happened in thread after Garruk gave intent to hammer and your hammer, like there was so much activity that it would be impossible for you to wade through. Two posts were made in between his intent and your hammer. Two. One of them was a vote count update from the Mod, the other was a quick question from Cephrir. Then you pop in and hammer. And what excuse do you have for this action? A Monday Morning QB read on Amrun that you made postmortem and a vague reference to hammers relating to your role. We think that the reason that you are unable to adequately explain yourself is because there was no town motivation behind what you did. You cut short a townies ability to post when they had said they were going to, and someone else had already called them out and put a deadline on their activity. Hell, if you wanted to hammer you still could have after giving Amrun some time to complete the post she said she was doing. Does your role say anything about not being able to declare intent, or preventing them from claiming. The only reason we can figure you hammering the way you did was to prevent Amrun from being able to reveal any information that could be beneficial to the rest of us.

We believe that there is credence to the theory that Peace replaces out as scum where he wouldn't as town, and see his reason for replacing out to be suspect. Adding that to the absolute void that was displaced, and the abomination of a hammer and subsequently shitty response to town reactions from Spy there is no dissidence when we

Unvote

Vote: Spy

So I guess this is what a bus looks like. In some ways I think the very last part is the most telling. They've just laid out some passable reasons for their vote, and then that little addendum is kind of awkward. Like, "let me throw in this tiny little point about the predecessor which is clearly not enough to mean anything on its lonesome". Then a bit more awkward in the final summary-esque sentence. I guess it reads to me like they are overjustifying the vote even though it's pretty clear that it's going to happen from the earlier parts of the post. I say this with no recollection of whether anything like this happens again, but shrug.

*passes through with a Spyrex For Scum picket sign*

Hey, this isn't doing jack shit for anyone. If you actually want to help me get him lynched you should start putting in the same kind of time you did pussy footing around with Thor D1.

.

"HEY ELLE YOU SHOULD BUS SPYREX"

Unvote

Vote: Alchemist

You've prod dodged your way through the past few days, or simply acknowledged that you'd been prodded. There has been plenty going on that you could comment on, but instead you choose to push an empty lynch on Agar. You have the ability to shed some light on what is going on with you but instead are just dumbfounded that anyone could be finding you scummy right now. Do you have anything legitimate to add or are you going yo continue with this shoddy play style?

Ah, here it is, more overjustification. Obviously I'm biased by my hindsight, but this didn't deserve the number of sentences it got and the last sentence reads to me like a buddy to buddy prod/coach.

Also, anyone who suggests MC wouldn't want to bus Alchemist will be stabbed with a rusty silver fork. However, scum bussing Alchemist up and down like I feel like they should have been would not explain why Alchemist is still alive. Shrug.

So this SD wagon has run its course, right? And we can all get back to finding scum?

I'm still in the process of putting together a Spyrex analysis that should be fruitful.

Looks like Ooba beat me to the punch a little bit, at least as far as Quadz was concerned, and his response was super, super weak. Yes, opinions change--why are you making Ooba chase you for the reasons why when he's already made it clear that your change of opinion was scummy?

Vote: Quadz

- Des

I'm still reading these out of context but this vote is clearly spurred by some ooba post. Note the being upset that they can't get as much towncred here as they would like because ooba said it first. (I say things like that in this post like I'm building up to some overarching picture but I'm actually not so don't get your hopes up)

@ Kanye: I've definitely said something similar as town before.

One thing I have to question is whether a macho cop ever, in a million years, actually claims "macho cop". Might as well paste a "kill me" sign on your forehead.

Brilliant.

hmmm...

He claimed his Machoness so that town PRs wouldn't target him.

Unvote
Vote: Garruk

- Fish's early case
- Don't like their interactions with Spyrex--their main D3 push was on AGar for the L-1 vote, with some innocuous questions thrown at Spyrex that aren't ever followed up on...2911 was also a really awkward unvote
- Really shitty vote on SD when several people collectively lost their minds and thought he wasn't being clear about his actions with flimsy meta justifications
- And...

The most egregious one is investigating SD and that certainly anyone with half a brain could have gotten a read on via dayplay with the 10-man wagon on him. Moreover it was a claimed JOAT. why waste a cop on it, 'falling off the map' a pitiful excuse. Not that the others also weren't bad.

VOTE: Quadz

Bad.

Also, Tierce, I really need you to stop clearing people based off roleclaims. I know this is slightly hypocritical because my clear is based off roleclaim.

^That reads like scum who has been cleared as town by their roleclaim and wants to make sure the pool people who has been cleared that way stays as small as possible so that they don't have to start killing from within it (thus revealing that there is scum there).

- Des

Bah, I guess this one sort of blows up my theory with all the summary of past points/lots of justification. On the other hand, they have a much more existent trajectory on Garruk than they did on either of the busses, it's not out of nowhere, and as such there is actually reason to provide summary.

-Empire's scumgame is very inconsistent; he can make one big post, but his consistency is absolute shit. During Day 1, Empire was around, he was posting, he was doing a lot of good things. Compare his D1 here with his D1 in that Mini Normal and you'll see a hell of a difference.
-Empire hates scum. Llamarble does not hate scum, and is competent at it. If that hydra drew scum, Llamarble would be the driving head and Empire would be in the background (see any morph the cat scum completed game for an example of that), but Empire was the primary driver the entire game and he's uncomfortable as fuck.
-See Empire's confidence in the mini normal scumgame, where his biggest meta threat was ffery versus his confidence here, where his biggest meta threats were Tammy/Tierce as part of the TET masonry. There's no way in hell he goes from awkward as hell as scum in a Mini Normal to god-tier town D1 here when there are more things he has to worry about here.

I don't think any of these points are valid at this juncture.

1. It's D7. Has Borden looked town at ALL since D1? Neither you nor Tammy can point to anything Empire's done in the last 6 days to justify the townread he gave you D1. How is that anything but inconsistency?
2. OK. a) They are obviously aware of this and are certainly capable of playing on your expectations, and b) Llamarble is also a fucking awesome town player and so is Empire, and as a team they have accomplished exactly jack and shit despite being a universal townread since D1. How is that not ringing alarm bells for you???
3. There's no way in hell? Get real, Nacho. It's called effort. He gave it D1 and he towned it up. In Wingate his town energy never let up despite that game descending into total madness--here he's in an uber powerful D1 townblock with all of his best friends and he tapers off into total nothingness.

Vote: Alfred Borden

- Des

I guess this is sort of the big question; is there any way this post is a bus? Point 1 is certainly shitty and was dismantled in no time flat-- could it have been deliberately shitty? I guess I can imagine a world where MC has this great big plan to get themselves lynched and pseudoclear Alfred in the process, but there are some reasons I don't believe this. Scum were looking pretty good at this point IMO, depending on how you feel about third parties then perhaps very good. Alfred was looking like a pretty likely lynch at this point, so my first inclination if they were somehow scumbuddies is to say this would be more of a sincere bus (lol) than a great big master self immolation plan. Their reasoning for Spyre, on the other hand, was actually pretty good. Still inclined to say this isn't a bus, in no small part because of the way it turned out (that is, with everyone being farily passionately on one side or the other; if both wagons were scum I don't think we'd see that). Also, something about the fact that they sort of address what is ultimately a mass appeal/case directly to Nautilus makes me think Naut is town (not that I didn't already think this but you can never have too many town points).

The only thing I didnt like about their play was not voting SpyreX.

How about them completely avoiding Quadz too? After being present on virtually every major town wagon D1 and D2 (ooba, Thor, SafetyDance, Amrun), Borden was nowhere to be found on either of the two flipped scum.

Not only were they not lynching scum, they weren't doing anything at all. On D3, Borden's name appears under "Not Voting" in 10 of the 27 VCs--when they were voting, it was either AGar (the first Spyrex counterwagon) or Alchemist (the 2nd).

D4 is more of the same.

Borden didn't vote the entire fucking day four. Not once. How is that even possible?!?!

D5--12/13 Not voting! Only showed up to hammer PNJ.

D6 - Quickhammer.

I cannot emphasize enough how scummy Borden is.

- Des

That last sentence is awkward as all hell but I don't know what that means.

Interesting that MC built a case on the basis of notbussingness while bussing both flipped scum himself.

With that said, I'm now counting Nacho, Tierce, Tammy, Ooba, and Cephrir as staunch "no" votes on Borden. That lynch is DOA today as far as we are concerned.

Unvote
Vote: The Alchemist

As long as Nacho hammers

- Des

This post is disturbingly nonbuslike. No attempt at towncred if Alchemist flips scum. Although to be fair, there was no cred to be had there since Alchemist has been practically claiming scum for 7 days.

Note how Naut is beyond reproach here, and... (sorry looks like I don't get to finish these ellipses in the next quote stripe)

I was not informed of Garruk's motivate of me N5 because he was roleblocked by AGar.

Also hence no kill.
BOOM

Borden, Garruk, Alchemist, Elleheathen

- Des

Elle appears here for no reason.

Not to mention they haven't lurked. You currently have 10 more posts than them,

and you have only really started posting today

. What's your excuse for falling behind?

And the bold is a straight up lie.

Naut, Alch, Borden, Magua.

You're welcome.

- Des

...and now Naut is suddenly the top scumread 500 posts later for one thing. Obviously bullshit attempt to get town to doubt Naut's credibility now that he is looking remotely lynchable.

I'll stop here because not too long after this we get into MC-is-probably-being-lynched WIFOM territory. But Naut does become magically town again at the end of it.

This iso mentions Shadoweh roughly zero times. I actually think this is a good sign in terms of her alignment.

[The Alchemist]

Busy again

Back later

[Eddard Stark]

Day 10, Vc 3

Alfred Borden (2) -

Eddard Stark, Benmage

The Alchemist (3) -

Cephrir, Nautilius, Titus

Nautilius (1) -

The Alchemist

Not voting (4)

: Alfred Borden, Magua, SafetyDance, Shadoweh

With 9 alive it takes 5 votes to lynch

• Deadline Date: 7thh ofJanuary 22:40 EST
  
• Deadline Countdown: (expired on 2014-01-07 22:40:00)
  
• No one is V/la

[SafetyDance]

We're Jaime Lannister, X-Shot Self-Watching Roleblocker. X times at night we can choose to watch ourselves; if we're visited, we have the option of roleblocking them the next night.

N1 we saw SafetyDance visit us and were also informed that we received the fruit

and chose not to roleblock

N5 no one visited us

So I could block/track possible scum? Right...

I have no idea if my Nacho block went through or not now. :/

Also surely

rabbit

would have been sent after N1 ended :S

I'm not avoiding Alfred. I just need to look at them again. If MC is scum I'm not going to be too worried about it, honestly. This day has made it clear they're not scumbuddies IMO.

Unfortunately, still a possibility. Though everything we're being made to believe now is pointing to AB-town.

Ooba, if that is you, please move your vote by the next vote count.

In what reality would a beyond-the-grave Ooba be voting for AB?

I neighborized Nacho and it worked. Ellibereth posted in the QT! Something interesting was revealed.

If I promised to neighborize you Shadoweh I totally forgot and am sorry.
Was my neighborize power really in any doubt anyway? How else would I have known the name Tierce submitted?
If it becomes necessary I can do a rundown of the posts in there, but it would be pretty boring for me.

Oh god I swear I am getting deja-vu here about scum neighbourizing themselves. Now what was that game?

I thought Elli was gone, so he has been active recently? Why turn up just for a QT?

My thought was that the mod vote is probably either ooba or MC. I imagine they can't change it, either way.

Here's my issue right now, before reviewing MC.

SD was insanely town around his claim and has the quadz thing in his favor.
Naut is trying really fucking hard and has been hyper town all damn game.
Alfred was the counterwagon to scum yesterday. And a counterwagon MC could not have pushed any harder; it nearly worked.
Benmage made a play that would just be retarded from scum. He could be scum, but he is definitely not my first pick.
I think Titus is town just on play and by comparison to my other game with her.

That leaves me Shadoweh, Alchemist, and Magua. If there aren't at least 2 scum in there I'll eat my detective hat. That's how I feel pre MC iso anyway, we'll see what happens.

God would this game be insanely easier if you and Nacho are both town. Your list is very close to mine which :paranoia: is scary, which is also there for Nacho if AB is town, heck if AB is scum then Nacho being the last of the fab four alive just reeks of scumbuddy protecting his weaker partner, which he's spent many a wall trying to do - which makes sense if there's only two of them left. Especially if after Quadz dying they had to bunker down (on the assumption there's only two left).

I think massclaiming, especially in this setup, doesn't help town and only helps scum, and that tends to be the case in all Faraday setups.

It's easy to say and it doesn't cement you to any reads. Similarly, "Slow the fuck down guys," is a useful but contentless sentiment (and I say this with the full knowledge I say this all the time myself).

Of course it doesn't cement people to reads because claiming isn't a substitute to reads. Especially in a U-Pick where roles where given out before alignment. It doesn't substitute for scumhunting it allows you to get on with it without having a bunch of half-claims out there, or part of the player list claiming and the rest not, scum using that to their advantage or having people with roles/abilities that they could use to clear each other...all which now, D10, is likely to be "used" up which may not have happened if a full claim was instigated days earlier instead of the charade that was D6-8.

It doesn't make sense to be completely in the dark until lylo when, as you admit, shenanigans can happen.

Magua - you really have to explain your thought process from "Alchemist claimed scum and there's no way we're lynching anybody else" to "Alfred's really the one I want to lynch today"

Alchemist claimed scum. There's no way we're not lynching him today unless someone else wants to claim scum.

But don't fucking put him at L-1 because I want to read Nautilus' magnum opus because Lord knows I do not feel Alfred can be town *at all*.

Messiah Complex: Weakest of my scumreads, mostly PoE.

The Alchemist: Meh, if your defense is "Yeah, I suck and lurk a lot," it's not really going to make me think any townier of you. A certain je ne sais quoi about the inevitability of his lynch is nice and registers as town, but not really enough to change my mind about anything. Big ol megapost boils down to "Nautilus says I'm scum, but I'm not scum, I just suck" which is so very meh.

Alfred Borden: Number one scumread, with a bullet. Really the one that I want to lynch today.

VOTE: Alfred Borden

I would be happy to start a Magua wagon if simply because of this. Not to mention Elliheathen's play wasn't great and she did literally ride on that claim of vanillerising Tierce being town.

[SafetyDance]

MC proceeds to get really really stuck on this point and continually insists SD literally cannot possibly be scum because of this night action. I've flipped back and forth several times on what this actually means- was MC trying to gain towncred from this, to simulate the expressions of others (there has been a lot of 'I think X is town because he used X beneficial action on me" which btw I think is bullshit overall), or to fake confirm SD for having an ability he actually did not have (highly unlikely)- but it still bears comment. ATM I think this works in SD's favor so long as we assume the rabbit is indeed real (very very likely either way).

I'm a bit...wary? now, 2 of my night actions (which

I

have never mixed up btw people) have actually hit scum and the other two are players still in the game. :/ That just adds to concerns I have that I'm not sure I can bring up properly (without invoking massive wifom etc).

...and now Naut is suddenly the top scumread 500 posts later for one thing. Obviously bullshit attempt to get town to doubt Naut's credibility now that he is looking remotely lynchable.

I'll stop here because not too long after this we get into MC-is-probably-being-lynched WIFOM territory. But Naut does become magically town again at the end of it.

This iso mentions Shadoweh roughly zero times. I actually think this is a good sign in terms of her alignment.

Easier to truncate to here...so what was the point of the massive wall then? You're more suspicious of Magua, less of TA who you're still voting? Shadow is clear? But then who goes into your scum list now?

I really don't think Shadoweh should be cleared at all here. Breezy jokey play from the start which hasn't really changed as the games gone on, with only self-depreciation as an excuse...the same shit we got from MC ("I tried to be town leader, waaaaaah") and getting from Bill. I liked Shadoweh's early start, she appeared comfortable, but for someone who was killed night one in Wire (yeah I had to re-check that) because of the strength of their play and threat I'm seeing absolutely nothing of that here.

Holy shit, scum had daytalk in Wire, Ben. Wow, probably should have known that beforehand :/. And I was confused, there's one extra scum in this game compared to that one. Not sure what difference that makes now.

I'm probably going to vote Magua. I haven't dived into MC yet but it appears he was trying to protect one of AB or Mag and Elle's play was not strong town. Although I don't think his replace in or refusal to read from the start is alignment-indicative. I mean if I had a choice from someone who dived straight in as he did over Titus' whole "I've got notes muthafucker, stop picking on me" show then I'd definitely choose the former.

A "Kill me now if Tierce is town" plea + claim, riding on that, not really helping the discussion there, then coming in day 5 with wishy-washy shit like this:

Up in the air about this whole SD thing. Thought he was for sure town up until this recent "I claimed this but did this" as if he's only

claiming

to have done something that he didn't actually do. 3178's especially, with "Therefore day 3 IS yesterday and yesterday was when I claimed to have blocked Naut D2."

I'd like to see this particular phrase uttered and I don't really know what to think between Quadz and SD, as I had them both as tentative town. So I'll keep my vote where it is for now and see if this 'V' (Varys? ) has anything to add.

If she was more suspicious of me before pre-Quadz shit then why not vote later on (which now looks like not wanting to get too close to a potential ML with having to make a choice). It looks like breezy fence-sitting scum waffle.

I know TA has been a strong read from the start but I think now Mag has more chance of flipping scum at this moment, if that makes sense, and is someone I'd probably push tomorrow regardless of a TA flip today...I mean this third "X"-scum could be anyone from the semi-town reads which applies to TA, heck been grouping him with Titus too, they're both not scum right?

Actually on Titus - From His POV if town!Titus how can Magua be town? Vanillizer, RBer, OS-Ablity RBer AND Global RBer = Self-watching RBer is somehow balanced?

Anyway that's enough rambling, I have nfi if any of this makes sense. See you next year.

Vote: Magua

[SafetyDance]

ANd Just because I said town has 0 chance to win this game, doesn't mean I've given up. I just know the outcome.

So why does someone town who's

not

given up push the game one mislynch closer to loss? Doesn't add up.

[Benmage]

ANd Just because I said town has 0 chance to win this game, doesn't mean I've given up. I just know the outcome.

So why does someone town who's

not

given up push the game one mislynch closer to loss? Doesn't add up.

This doesn't make sense.. I only be voting scumz

[Benmage]

Of course the MC wifom applies to AB, but it also applies to Magua too. Which is why I'm putting less stock in what MC was saying D9 because they knew they were gone and in hindsight their posting reflects that

They knew they were gone.. yet stamped their feet about AB.

Hence AB be scum.

[Benmage]

unvote vote Magua

[Cephrir]

...and now Naut is suddenly the top scumread 500 posts later for one thing. Obviously bullshit attempt to get town to doubt Naut's credibility now that he is looking remotely lynchable.

I'll stop here because not too long after this we get into MC-is-probably-being-lynched WIFOM territory. But Naut does become magically town again at the end of it.

This iso mentions Shadoweh roughly zero times. I actually think this is a good sign in terms of her alignment.

Easier to truncate to here...so what was the point of the massive wall then? You're more suspicious of Magua, less of TA who you're still voting? Shadow is clear? But then who goes into your scum list now?

I often start walls like that one without knowing where they'll end and without especially having a point when I set out. I'm not clearing Shadow at all, but I'm more interested in the other two right now. If I'm right on those two I don't know who the last scum is, but Shadow would still be by guess. Shadow also makes sense as a potential third party, both for some of her early stuff you mentioned below this which would seem to indicate non-mafia and MC not mentioning her. But I don't really think we need to worry about her immediately.

On my vote; I'm conflicted. Is Magua more likely to flip scum than Alchemist, maaaaaaybe. But the idea of seeing Alchemist survive yet another day causes me tremendous internal pain, and it is close.

[Nautilius]

Nacho, can you verify where Alfred was last night? He implied you'd be doing something dragony and Garruk got a message about how our power was charging that night.

I did something dragony alright

[Nautilius]

If you're talking about Empire because of Alfred, I'll point out my previous posts where I already think Alfred is town.

I am wondering why you didn't see Empire-town before based on how he played in our game. The longest posts Empire made were responding to Tammy for her tunneling on LB (genuine because he believed her reasons for tunneling were stupid). You will also notice he made two of these long posts directed at Tammy, a bunch of one-liners, a wall on game strategy, and... nothing else. The fact he was so active early game and so obviously scumhunting while that game was going on (despite the fact he could legitimately scumhunt here but can't do the same here) should be a large screaming red flag of Empire-town that you saw the whole time, but you apparently didn't see it. My appeals to you yesterday were "Magua magua magua, I am currently hydraing with Empire-scum I know how he works why the fuck aren't you seeing it?" but you just went "oh i have no idea what Empire as scum looks like".

In the meantime, you could stop sadfacing to my post and actually say which of my townreads you disagree with.

It wasn't a sadface, it was a "holy shit Magua is actually saying these words" face. I guess I'll respond since you asked me to: My scumteam that doesn't include you is: The Alchemist/Titus. Guess which townreads I disagree with?

In what reality would a beyond-the-grave Ooba be voting for AB?

It was a reality that was brought up by others. I made an effort to confirm/deny that reality.

I thought Elli was gone, so he has been active recently? Why turn up just for a QT?

He hasn't been reading at all. His posts in the QT reflect that perfectly.

[Nautilius]

As for pushing reads, since you mentioned HunterxHunter: Show me who I pushed in HunterxHunter before Syryana on Day 5 or something (and was the only town lynch in that entire game).

It's Day 10.

I get it, you're annoyed I'm calling you scum. Fucking boo hoo.

Let me see if I understand your case on me:

Magua: .....

Did I do that one right?

[Shadoweh]

-.- That doesn't actually answer my question you know.
I imagine MC didn't mention me because I said he sounded like not his scum self. When we were scum together he was one of the first people talking about how horrible I was >_> I suspect Fish was posting under Des's name considering the tone though.

[Titus]

SD, my role would have bought us another day. Magua could paralyze the scums. I see no problem with balance SD.

[Alfred Borden]

VOTE: The Alchemist

I have significant reservations about lynching everyone else, so I'd prefer to do this one today.
I don't expect I'll ever want to lynch Nacho or SD.
I don't think Magua is scum; Elleheathen was town for claim and townposts and Magua's play so far (particularly the coldfeet episode) hasn't hurt that.
Benmage, much as I want him to be scum, will probably flip town.
Titus, Cephrir, Shadoweh all have very solidly townbelievable dayplay as well.

[Nautilius]

-.- That doesn't actually answer my question you know.

i was on top of him last night so he was probably where he was supposed to be?

[Nautilius]

[Shadoweh]

VOTE: The Alchemist
I have significant reservations about lynching everyone else, so I'd prefer to do this one today.
I don't expect I'll ever want to lynch Nacho or SD.
I don't think Magua is scum; Elleheathen was town for claim and townposts and Magua's play so far (particularly the coldfeet episode) hasn't hurt that.
Benmage, much as I want him to be scum, will probably flip town.
Titus, Cephrir, Shadoweh all have very solidly townbelievable dayplay as well.

So everyone except The Alchemist is town? :V Guess we can go home then!

I'm not sure if I'm understanding you Nacho, can you draw me some diagrams? I want to know where exactly on top of Alfred you were last night and how long.

[The Alchemist]

It seems I'm at L-1. Cards on the table, then.

The scumteam as I see it consists of: Nautilius, Cephrir, and 1 of {Alfred Borden, Titus}. (Interesting side note: all four of these people are currently voting me. But back to that in a moment.)

Obviously, I am assuming there were 6 scum; 5 scum on the team and MC, the traitor. Obviously if there are 7 scum total; we're in LyLo and it's gg. I believe, however, if there are in fact four scum remaining, you've to look no farther than the 4 on my wagon, as I'd be dead already (even one town vote on me means a quickhammer in that case).

Why those four, then? Well, Nautilius is obvious. I'm not about to repeat myself.

Why Cephrir? Touched on part of it way back when, in 1133. In short, it's heavily meta based, with an emphasis on tone, attitude and how he plays. Linked below are a few of his more recent games:

Town games:
Open 527
Mini 1496

Scum Games:
NY 165
NY 164

Anyroad, if you read his towngames vs. his scumgames you'll notice a few key differences. Notably, his scumgames feature:
1) A serious, just shy of mechanical demeanor. In his towngames, he's more relaxed, quirkier (some of those metaphors, whew) and his personality is much more evident. Scumgames he tends toward being mechanical (hasn't quite gone that far this game, but his quirkiness is certainly much less evident and he's rather toneless overall).
2) His scumhunting is more productive as town. Not saying he's right all the time as town or anything like that, but the key difference I'm speaking of is TownRir has a direction. He knows where he's going, how and why he thinks person X is town, he asks meaningful questions, etc. His play in this game is somewhat akin to a kitten unraveling a ball of yarn after he's dug into it with his claws. He's pursuing a lot of threads, but none of them seem to lead anywhere because they were cut off before he started looking. He's spent the whole game chasing a bunch of loose threads that don't really lead anywhere. TownRir doesn't do that.
3) I had a 3, but I've forgotten what it was. I still wanted a 3 though! Anyroad, that's the gist of why I'm pretty sure of scumRir here.

Alfred Borden and Titus. These are rather weaker reads than Naut/Cephrir. I'm getting tired, so here's the Larry King version:

Borden: Empire did townie things and I liked him. Then he stopped doing townie things, then quit. Llamarble hasn't done shit for townie things; and when the only thing you've done that I liked since your partner quit was yell nasty things at Benmage, I tend to find you a good scum candidate (that post Shadoweh pointed out was pure golden feces, for example). Plus PoE. (Side Note: To those of you mentioning the 1v1 with MC, if you were MC and your partner was a rival wagon, wouldn't you try really hard for his lynch? Looks pretty good for potential partner X, dunnit? Food for thought)

Titus: Oh, this. I do seem to keep coming back to Titus-scum, don't I? The complete lack of connection to this game is almost unreal. 6181 is an amazing example. If you've even casually glanced at the game in the last Day or two, you might have a clue as to why I'm voting Naut. Moreso, most of her ISO is busywork (anyone remember that fantastic nonsense with the coin?) and just about the only thing she's been regularly keeping up with has been slandering/discrediting people calling her scum. She's been calling pretty much everyone that's ever suspected her names, disregarding their opinions, etc. If you want to take a moment to do some meta, compare this game to some town games of hers:

Newbie 1372
Open 529
Mini 1485

A brief glance at any game will show you how different her townplay actually is from what's been happening here. Her towngame includes:
Effort
Scumhunting (or at least her version of it)
A lack of personal attacks
Effort
Attempts to work with others she perceives as town
Attempts to explain to/convince others of her towniness
Effort

That whole list is missing from this game.

Anyroad, that's all I got. On second thought, someone that ain't me might consider asking the four above people what they'd do after me townflip, assuming the game ain't over. Thar's a whole lot of Alchemist-associative scumreads bein predicated round these parts.

Recommended course of action: Lynch Naut, Cephrir, Titus. If game ain't over, lynch Borden. If all four really are scum, we're probably screwed anyways, but hell with it. Good luck!

Happy New Year, folks! Yarr! Darmok and Jalad on the ocean!

[Titus]

The Alchemist, your wall on me is lies. First, I am putting effort into this game, like I do in every game. I haven't personally attacked anyone. I rarely do that as it is counterproductive as either alignment. In fact, I tend to be den mother/know it all professor as scum. You also claim I am not working with townreads bullshit. I was trying to work with Magua. Lastly, how the hell are you even suggesting I don't scumhunt? Absurd. If you feel your wall is accurate, we will need to have a long talk after the game because you are not reading me right at all. If you really want meta analysis on me, check F-16's write up in BB mafia. Meta sucks though.

Oh, I am supposed to be psychic now? You don't get to herpalurk and then say your reasoning is obvious. Naked votes suck because a) you cannot be certain of the reasoning b) they are easily retconnable c) they do little towards helping a cohesive town group e) reads deriving from naked votes are impossible.

Marble has had some irl stuff that has cleared up since posting. So he couldn't really push anyone. That's done now, so he should be pushing people and now he is. Funny how you mention the could be partners thing when MC fosed most if not all of your scumreads. One or two mkes sense but not all, unless you are assuming an unknowing traitor. Yet if that's the case your reasoning on AB falls flat.

Cephir, nothing beyond meta. Meta sucks.

Also, your sudden posting at L minus 1 is a pretty big tip off that your wall is desperate OMGUS. Paranoid fears about lylo also don't work. 7 scum in a game this sized is horribly unbalanced. The lylo statements are AtE.

[Benmage]

Look what you did

Faraday.

How could you. How is town not suppose to lynch Alchemist... how? What a waste.... towns



dis game.

(disclaimer:hehasn'tbeenhammeredbecause?)

[Benmage]

Benmage, much as I want him to be scum, will probably flip town.

Do you say this in everyone of your little post blips... its like a broken record.

We get it.

You've put zero effort into the game because you're scum.

And this town thinks thats cool, cause you were active D1.

[Benmage]

uhhh Benmage:?

Good point.

unvote vote The Alchemist