Mini 1555 Board Game UPick Mafia--Game Over!
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So here's the plan:
Hadrian will be cleared for not hammering me (he posted while I was at L-1; scum-Hadrian wins today by hammering town).
So the scum are morph and Quill (let's ignore SpyreX; it's pretty unlikely he's scum).
morph redirects Hadrian onto Quill (I was wrong, it has to be that way because Porkens knows Hadrian can't interfere).
SpyreX follows morph (to verify he does what he's supposed to and to check whether morph makes a kill).
If Quill dies, we can lynch morph and Hadrian (again, SpyreX probably isn't scum).
If Quill survives and someone else dies, Hadrian is cleared and we can lynch morph and Quill. (SpyreX can tell us which one.)
If nobody dies, we can no-lynch and try again tomorrow night. If scum continues to no-kill and we need to break the cycle, lynch Quill before morph and Hadrian since repeating these actions doesn't work as well without morph or Hadrian (because we know Hadrian can't interfere), and stick Porkens in Quill's old spot.
If I'm town:
Hadrian will be cleared for not hammering me (he posted while I was at L-1; scum-Hadrian wins today by hammering town).
So the scum are morph and Quill (let's ignore SpyreX; it's pretty unlikely he's scum).
If I'm scum:
morph redirects Hadrian onto Quill (I was wrong, it has to be that way because Porkens knows Hadrian can't interfere).
SpyreX follows morph (to verify he does what he's supposed to and to check whether morph makes a kill).
If Quill dies, we can lynch morph and Hadrian (again, SpyreX probably isn't scum).
If Quill survives and someone else dies, Hadrian is cleared and we can lynch morph and Quill. (SpyreX can tell us which one.)
If nobody dies, we can no-lynch and try again tomorrow night. If scum continues to no-kill and we need to break the cycle, lynch Quill before morph and Hadrian since repeating these actions doesn't work as well without morph or Hadrian (because we know Hadrian can't interfere), and stick Porkens in Quill's old spot.
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Well, I think username is right that he has to be the lynch now. Unless there's a flaw in the plan I proposed in 1511, anyway (and possibly even if there
(We're definitely not going to be gladiating username; that wouldn't help at all that I can see.)
is
one, at this point). Would still like feedback on that plan from other people. I don't think we should hammer username until everyone's had a chance to chime in on that and we've all decided whether or not that that's the right way to go. In particular, Morph obviously has to agree to redirect me to Quill tonight if AUN flips scum.(We're definitely not going to be gladiating username; that wouldn't help at all that I can see.)
I thought he was too -- don't think the post really makes much sense otherwise.In post 1520, Porkens wrote:In post 1515, Quill wrote:Aren't you talking to Hadrian in that post?In post 1513, Porkens wrote:Because he targeted you and didn't lose his vote, which he says would have happened if you were scum. I thought we'd established this.In post 1512, Quill wrote:my one objection was that it doesn't work if Awesome is town, butif he's town then you're confirmed townalready
Let's try again:
And since 1512 was a reply to my 1511, I think "you"In post 1520, Porkens wrote:Aren't you talking to Hadrian in that post?In post 1515, Quill wrote:Because he targeted you and didn't lose his vote, which he says would have happened if you were scum. I thought we'd established this.In post 1513, Porkens wrote:How does that work?In post 1512, Quill wrote:This plan seems to make sense...my one objection was that it doesn't work if Awesome is town, butif he's town then you're confirmed townalready
has
to mean "Hadrian".Because if you target someone who hasn't claimed flavor, you can prove you actually target them tonight (if you aren't lynched today) by stating the flavor names of their roles.In post 1514, awesomeusername wrote:Yeah. Still awaiting mod's response to my question as to whether I'm allowed to say them. Why do you ask if you already believe my role?
Not hammering yet, I need some time later to think about the last page or so.
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The hole is that if you are scum and AUN is town, it's game over.In post 1511, Hadrian wrote:There's a pretty obvious reason why this plan doesn't work, isn't there? (Otherwise I'd have agreed with SpyreX that town wins if we hit scum today.)In post 1510, Kdub wrote:OK, let's say we lynch morph. Maybe we have SpyreX follow Quill to make sure he doesn't perform the kill?
On the other hand ... say username is lynched today and he flips scum. Then have Morph agree to redirect us to target Quill tonight. Porkens has confirmed our role is what we've claimed it to be, so it would be impossible for us to block or otherwise redirect Morph tonight if we were scum. So if Morph redirects us to Quill and somebody other than Quill dies, we're confirmed to be town (if Morph lies about redirecting us, they're scum). On the other hand, if Quilldoesdie, then we'renotconfirmed as town ... but that doesn't matter any more because we've already reduced the suspect pool to {Hadrian, morph} and (unless SpyreX or Porkens are scum, neither of whim seems at all credible) that means town wins anyway.
So I think that if we lynch username and he's scum, town actuallydoeswin. And if he's town, then (because we'd prove ourselves town bynotgladiating anyone, as Tammy said earlier), we'd be confirmed town too. And scum would thenhaveto be Quill/Morph. (Although, as it happens, I'd rank that as the least likely of the three possible pairings of {Morph, Quill, AUN} right now; Morph/AUN seems the most likely and Quill/AUN at least helps to explains the decision to motivate Porkens, as I said in my last post.)
In fact, I think I've persuaded myself that lynching AUN is actually the way to go today. Can somebody tell me if there's a hole in the above plan I'm not spotting? (I mean apart from the irritating 'but this might be lylo so let's vote for somebody we have a townread on!' paranoia, which I don't know what I can do to address at this point.)
worse than random
Have you read his posts? He explains why he believes we're confirmed town based on him being town. We could have easily mislynched him today if we were scum. Gone into the night phase and then gladiated tomorrow for the win.
If the big paranoia today is a mislynch gives us the win if we're scum, we didn't lynch AUN, so if he's town we're confirmed town.
I also think that AUN's posts today look really town.
If the big paranoia today is a mislynch gives us the win if we're scum, we didn't lynch AUN, so if he's town we're confirmed town.
I also think that AUN's posts today look really town.
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Vote Count 4.06:
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch!
morph the cat (L-3): awesomeusername
Porkens (L-4):
Quill (L-4):
SpyreX (L-4):
awesomeusername (L-2): SpyreX, Quill
Kdub (L-4):
Hadrian (L-3): Porkens
Not Voting: morph the cat, Kdub, Hadrian
V/LA:
Deadline is in (expired on 2014-04-17 20:17:36)
I don't know about Penguin but I kind of feel this way...
With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch!
morph the cat (L-3): awesomeusername
Porkens (L-4):
Quill (L-4):
SpyreX (L-4):
awesomeusername (L-2): SpyreX, Quill
Kdub (L-4):
Hadrian (L-3): Porkens
Not Voting: morph the cat, Kdub, Hadrian
V/LA:
Deadline is in (expired on 2014-04-17 20:17:36)
I don't know about Penguin but I kind of feel this way...
Huh?
In post 1526, morph the cat wrote:aren't conf town for not hammering.
pretty sure aun is scum. I wish we had a good idea who is with him. phoneposting on a plane. we'll discuss the plan s and give or thoughts after I get home and catch up.
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Ok I'm home and not posting in an oxygen deprived state on a tablet with shitty airplane wifi.
That's the good news.
The other good news is that I've opened a bottle of cab.
speaking of cab, cabd disagrees with oxygen-deprived me about AUN and in the wonderful more or less pollen free and very humidity free air of home I kinda think he's making sense and I've been untowardly freaked over how anxious aun for us to be lynched even though in the long dark tea times of my soul I think our lynch would help solve the game, too. I'm rereading this game day for starters.
Hadrian, I hope you'll be around tonight. We want to do some gamesolving.
porkens, plz unvote. tia.
That's the good news.
The other good news is that I've opened a bottle of cab.
speaking of cab, cabd disagrees with oxygen-deprived me about AUN and in the wonderful more or less pollen free and very humidity free air of home I kinda think he's making sense and I've been untowardly freaked over how anxious aun for us to be lynched even though in the long dark tea times of my soul I think our lynch would help solve the game, too. I'm rereading this game day for starters.
Hadrian, I hope you'll be around tonight. We want to do some gamesolving.
porkens, plz unvote. tia.
This head probably won't be. I've been buried under grading and have a terrible headache; I think I need new glasses!
Anyway, I hope not to be because I hope to be asleep soon. I should be in a place tomorrow where I start seeing the top of this mountain though.
Pless might be around, though he's in the UK, he's probably already asleep.
Anyway, I hope not to be because I hope to be asleep soon. I should be in a place tomorrow where I start seeing the top of this mountain though.
Pless might be around, though he's in the UK, he's probably already asleep.