Mini 1555 Board Game UPick Mafia--Game Over!


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Post Post #1550 (ISO) » Tue Apr 08, 2014 3:18 pm

Post by morph the cat »

this is from day 3, but I wanted to revisit it, mostly because I didn't really address the obvtown/town-as-fuck stuff at the time.
In post 967, Hadrian wrote:Buh. At first I was like yay all that thought I put into Morph was for nothing, then, buh.

I know that Pless is still really suspicious of Morph, but I've been thinking and there are a couple of things that ffery has said that I think are less likely to come from her as scum. One of them being the "town as fuck" thing, though I still think that's odd coming from either of them. They both hate when I talk about how obvtown I am in games, so it's a bit shocking to see them using that.
We have never said we're obvtown. I doubt we would short of being confirmed town, though I will probably go to my grave a little perplexed that people didn't find me pretty transparent back in the good old days when I used to stay up all night playing forum mafia. I said we're town as fuck, which is more about our motivation and intentions than about our appearances.

The execution is what it is, or was. I think my activity level, involvement and effort are going to be back to normal after I get some sleep tonight.

Anyway, for me, the concept of being town as fuck kind of crystalized in this game: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=34263, where we (a hydra of bulbazak, cabd and me) were being scumread in the latter part of day 1 and much of day 2 because we came to a different conclusion from some other town players about an L-1 PR claim. We were called scum because our vote was characterized as "scum motivated". I refuted it very flatly simply because we were town and therefore any decision we made with any deliberation at all was necessarily town motivated whether other town agreed or not.

That's kinda how I feel about this game. We have this role. We're living with it. We're trying to find scum with it and we're trying to hurt scum with it. and whether our decisions make sense to someone who doesn't have this role or not, we know that we're making our decisions in an effort to further a town win.
Though as I said before ffery doesn't really speak in her tone when she hydras with cabd and it's hard to tell them apart. A couple times I thought cabd was intentionally posting and saying it was ffery to get around her scum tell of hiding behind cabd when they hydra being a thing. And in the respect of that hydra doing rather well together in scum games, I can see being in a hydra with cabd boosting some of her confidence where she might sound a bit more arrogant than I would typically expect of her.


I'm pretty sure you called me out for arrogance in vesperia. I'm actually a pretty arrogant player in general, but I try to keep it in check, mostly because it's unearned arrogance in this milieu, and likely to stay that way for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately my arrogance is easily punctured and I sometimes go through phases of oh my god I suck during games that aren't going well.

Let's see, who is this game not going well for atm? oh right.
So I don't know and I don't think they're town as fuck though. And, it pings me that it pings her about a lack of uncertainty? She's certainly seen me in games being very certain about someone both town and scum reads. And I wouldn't actually consider me certain of anything this game. I mean I vote parked kdub for the entirety of yesterday based on a gut suspicion and didn't push it. And I typically don't characterize games driving me insane when I feel like I have a good pulse on who the scum and town are, unless people are driving me insane.
I don't remember why I said that about uncertainty, but it was in reference to your read on us. And it was probably inaccurate both because you apparently still were uncertain at the start of day 3 (and beyond) and becausee I was mis-attributing posts to your other head. Hopefully I'm getting better at figuring out who posts what.
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Post Post #1551 (ISO) » Tue Apr 08, 2014 5:51 pm

Post by Porkens »

I guess you convinced me.

Unvote; Vote: Morph
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Post Post #1552 (ISO) » Tue Apr 08, 2014 6:06 pm

Post by SpyreX »

This game is cats and dogs.

I have a super hard time seeing the AUN-scum motivation for the last few pages unless its balls-to-the wall gambit (kudos) but he's 100% right that AUN-town means Hadrian-town or the slow play for no reason which is right out. If thats the case morph and quil? But then quil motivated town last night which is ~moonbeams~ in and of itself.

Kdub where the shit are you I need this to make sense.

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Post Post #1553 (ISO) » Tue Apr 08, 2014 6:16 pm

Post by Porkens »

I know, I'm fucking confused. Only 1 scum left? THREE scum left? 1 scum and 1 sk? I could see that.

Oh, though
AUN and Hadrian can be scum together, still.
That makes sense, doesn't it?
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Post Post #1554 (ISO) » Tue Apr 08, 2014 6:17 pm

Post by Porkens »

Yeah, no, we still do this I think.

unvote; Vote: AUN
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Post Post #1555 (ISO) » Tue Apr 08, 2014 6:19 pm

Post by Kdub »

I have a little bit of time now. Rereading the last couple pages.
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Post Post #1556 (ISO) » Tue Apr 08, 2014 6:25 pm

Post by awesomeusername »

Wait, this is silly.

Morph
has
to be scum, unless it's SpyreX-Quill. If we lynch morph and he turns out to be scum (and he will), Porkens and Hadrian are still cleared unless there's more than 3 scum. Once morph flips, there's one other scum left, and Porkens and Hadrian can each only be scum if I'm also scum.

If he flips town, then we'll have 6 people left (one will be nightkilled): me, Porkens, Hadrian, Quill, SpyreX, and Kdub. It would be silly to lynch among {Hadrian, Porkens, Kdub} since Kdub is confirmed town, and Porkens and Hadrian are only scum if I am (making me a strictly better lynch). Since we've decided SpyreX is town, that means the people left are me and Quill. It's impossible not for me to be in one of the scum teams, so lynch me.

Basically, I think we can get the same amount of information from morph's lynch as we can from mine, and he has the added bonus of actually being scum. Lynching me works, too, I guess, but it just seems kinda silly to offer myself up when scum has done the same.
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Post Post #1557 (ISO) » Tue Apr 08, 2014 6:28 pm

Post by awesomeusername »

Wait, Porkens is right. If we lynch morph than a me-Hadrian scum team could win.

Carry on then.
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Post Post #1558 (ISO) » Tue Apr 08, 2014 6:42 pm

Post by Kdub »

In post 1511, Hadrian wrote:On the other hand ... say username is lynched today and he flips scum. Then have Morph agree to redirect us to target Quill tonight. Porkens has confirmed our role is what we've claimed it to be, so it would be impossible for us to block or otherwise redirect Morph tonight if we were scum. So if Morph redirects us to Quill and somebody other than Quill dies, we're confirmed to be town (if Morph lies about redirecting us, they're scum). On the other hand, if Quill
does
die, then we're
not
confirmed as town ... but that doesn't matter any more because we've already reduced the suspect pool to {Hadrian, morph} and (unless SpyreX or Porkens are scum, neither of whim seems at all credible) that means town wins anyway.

So I think that if we lynch username and he's scum, town actually
does
win. And if he's town, then (because we'd prove ourselves town by
not
gladiating anyone, as Tammy said earlier), we'd be confirmed town too. And scum would then
have
to be Quill/Morph. (Although, as it happens, I'd rank that as the least likely of the three possible pairings of {Morph, Quill, AUN} right now; Morph/AUN seems the most likely and Quill/AUN at least helps to explains the decision to motivate Porkens, as I said in my last post.)

In fact, I think I've persuaded myself that lynching AUN is actually the way to go today. Can somebody tell me if there's a hole in the above plan I'm not spotting? (I mean apart from the irritating 'but this might be lylo so let's vote for somebody we have a townread on!' paranoia, which I don't know what I can do to address at this point.)
OK, so if awesome flips scum, I agree that we've probably got this. If he flips town, it confirms Porkens as town. I'm not convinced that SpyreX is completely clear, but I can't envision a SpyreX/Quill scumteam with the evidence we have, so morph seems like a safe bet for tomorrow's lynch, then we figure out Spy/Quill on the last day.

Spy following morph tonight seems like a good idea. Quill should probably motivate either Porkens or SpyreX, though I'm not sure which.
In post 1533, Hadrian wrote:(We're definitely not going to be gladiating username; that wouldn't help at all that I can see.)
Wait, why not? If you are town and awesome is town, then town gets an extra vote (yours) tomorrow. If you are town and awesome is scum, same deal. If you are scum and awesome is town, you can win tomorrow no matter what (since scum will have half the available votes). If you are both scum, then it doesn't matter because tomorrow wouldn't be lylo even with your double vote.

Cabd, any response to your D2 non-reaction to SpyreX's claim?
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Post Post #1559 (ISO) » Tue Apr 08, 2014 6:46 pm

Post by Kdub »

Based on play alone, I definitely feel worst about Quill. He's hedging like crazy after attacking me yesterday for the same thing, and his votes yesterday onto me and then PV were very conveniently timed in terms of getting momentum on the wagons. However, my reads have been fairly bad this game, and objective evidence suggests he is town.
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Post Post #1560 (ISO) » Tue Apr 08, 2014 6:47 pm

Post by Porkens »

In post 1557, awesomeusername wrote:Wait, Porkens is right. If we lynch morph than a me-Hadrian scum team could win.

Carry on then.
God damn it. Mad props if this isn't a town-post.
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Post Post #1561 (ISO) » Tue Apr 08, 2014 6:49 pm

Post by Porkens »

I guess if you are town though the game is solved FMPOV so, yeah, I think this has to happen.
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Post Post #1562 (ISO) » Tue Apr 08, 2014 6:53 pm

Post by Kdub »

Wait, if awesome flipping town already implies Hadrian is confirmed town, why not have Quill motivate one of me/Porkens/Hadrian, Spy follow morph, and morph redirect Quill to SpyreX? If Spy dies, that means the three confirmed town in that case (me, Porkens, Hadrian) are alive tomorrow and we have the numbers to beat a morph/Quill scumteam. If Spy lives, he can say whether Quill's motivate reached him or not, as well as give his follow result. Based on that information, we can probably figure out who the two scum are among morph/Quill/Spy.
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Post Post #1563 (ISO) » Tue Apr 08, 2014 6:56 pm

Post by Porkens »

Oh but then who else will claim to be/have a role blocking power
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Post Post #1564 (ISO) » Tue Apr 08, 2014 7:02 pm

Post by Kdub »

Random speculation: what if Quill is scum and is actually a full roleblocker + 1-shot motivator instead of the opposite? It would explain Spy being blocked on N2 (assuming Spy is town), and there's no way to confirm HS receiving the motivate on N1/N2.

Porkens, since you know what the motivate did to you, would the same benefit applied to HS on N1/N2 explain anything that we don't currently know?
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Post Post #1565 (ISO) » Tue Apr 08, 2014 7:07 pm

Post by SpyreX »

The only thing is either there is a scum blocker or morph is Aesthetic.

Which in theory could explain the motivate if its quill/morph
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Post Post #1566 (ISO) » Tue Apr 08, 2014 7:08 pm

Post by Porkens »

It seemed tailored to my role. I assume it would do different things for everyone. I guess it could have lifted the "double-restricted" (whatever that means)?

why would that explain it SpY?
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Post Post #1567 (ISO) » Tue Apr 08, 2014 7:11 pm

Post by Porkens »

We are talking Morph/Quill here, right?

Night 1 - Quill sends in the kill, Morph gets jailed, Mado neighborizes
Night 2 - Morph sends in the kill, Quill role blocks SpyreX
Night 3 - Morph sends in the kill, Quill claims to have role blocked him but actually motivated me?

Maybe Quill HAS to motivate someone to recharge their role block?
That team still seems weak to me.
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Post Post #1568 (ISO) » Tue Apr 08, 2014 7:12 pm

Post by SpyreX »

Aesthetics normally can't be targetted by anything. So instead of wasting it tying to bank cred makes sense.
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Post Post #1569 (ISO) » Tue Apr 08, 2014 7:16 pm

Post by Porkens »

AUN is voting morph right now. We could do this before the rest of them wake up ;)
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Post Post #1570 (ISO) » Tue Apr 08, 2014 9:46 pm

Post by Hadrian »

In post 1558, Kdub wrote:Spy following morph tonight seems like a good idea. Quill should probably motivate either Porkens or SpyreX, though I'm not sure which.
Porkens if aun flips town, SpyreX otherwise, I guess?
In post 1558, Kdub wrote:
In post 1533, Hadrian wrote:(We're definitely not going to be gladiating username; that wouldn't help at all that I can see.)
Wait, why not?
I don't want to use my role simply for the sake of using a role. If we stick to the plan, then me having an extra vote tomorrow doesn't do anything to improve town's chances, does it?
In post 1562, Kdub wrote:Wait, if awesome flipping town already implies Hadrian is confirmed town, why not have Quill motivate one of me/Porkens/Hadrian, Spy follow morph, and morph redirect Quill to SpyreX? If Spy dies, that means the three confirmed town in that case (me, Porkens, Hadrian) are alive tomorrow and we have the numbers to beat a morph/Quill scumteam. If Spy lives, he can say whether Quill's motivate reached him or not, as well as give his follow result. Based on that information, we can probably figure out who the two scum are among morph/Quill/Spy.
Quill should motivate Porkens in this case, I think. Simply because Porkens is the only of us three to have a night action
to
motivate. (And would people with only a day action and no night action even get the notification that they were motivated? It's not at all clear to me after reading the wiki. Best to avoid the uncertainty, surely.)

Otherwise I agree that this is a good refinement of the plan (though the important thing, from my perspective, is that Morph agrees to redirect us to Quill tonight if username flips scum.)
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Post Post #1571 (ISO) » Tue Apr 08, 2014 9:52 pm

Post by morph the cat »

In post 1559, Kdub wrote:Based on play alone, I definitely feel worst about Quill. He's hedging like crazy after attacking me yesterday for the same thing, and his votes yesterday onto me and then PV were very conveniently timed in terms of getting momentum on the wagons. However, my reads have been fairly bad this game, and objective evidence suggests he is town.
This is where we're at.

But, I really thought the way they claimed to have roleblocked us last night looked town. I'm afraid that we're potentially losing the game on the impression that one post has made.
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Post Post #1572 (ISO) » Tue Apr 08, 2014 10:03 pm

Post by Hadrian »

In post 1547, morph the cat wrote:Hadrian, I hope you'll be around tonight. We want to do some gamesolving.
Thoughts on the plan I describe in , please?

Do you think that the remaining scum are username+Porkens? Do you think that SpyreX is scum? Assuming the answer to both those questions is "no", can you see anything wrong with the plan described in ? If we lynch username and he flips scum, will you agree to redirect us to Quill tonight?
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Post Post #1573 (ISO) » Tue Apr 08, 2014 10:04 pm

Post by fferyllt »

In post 1570, Hadrian wrote:
In post 1558, Kdub wrote:Spy following morph tonight seems like a good idea. Quill should probably motivate either Porkens or SpyreX, though I'm not sure which.
Porkens if aun flips town, SpyreX otherwise, I guess?
In post 1558, Kdub wrote:
In post 1533, Hadrian wrote:(We're definitely not going to be gladiating username; that wouldn't help at all that I can see.)
Wait, why not?
I don't want to use my role simply for the sake of using a role. If we stick to the plan, then me having an extra vote tomorrow doesn't do anything to improve town's chances, does it?
In post 1562, Kdub wrote:Wait, if awesome flipping town already implies Hadrian is confirmed town, why not have Quill motivate one of me/Porkens/Hadrian, Spy follow morph, and morph redirect Quill to SpyreX? If Spy dies, that means the three confirmed town in that case (me, Porkens, Hadrian) are alive tomorrow and we have the numbers to beat a morph/Quill scumteam. If Spy lives, he can say whether Quill's motivate reached him or not, as well as give his follow result. Based on that information, we can probably figure out who the two scum are among morph/Quill/Spy.
Quill should motivate Porkens in this case, I think. Simply because Porkens is the only of us three to have a night action
to
motivate. (And would people with only a day action and no night action even get the notification that they were motivated? It's not at all clear to me after reading the wiki. Best to avoid the uncertainty, surely.)

Otherwise I agree that this is a good refinement of the plan (though the important thing, from my perspective, is that Morph agrees to redirect us to Quill tonight if username flips scum.)
I think this sounds good, but won't agree to it until tomorrow at the earliest because sleep is good and I need more of it before I commit to shit in this game.
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Post Post #1574 (ISO) » Tue Apr 08, 2014 10:05 pm

Post by morph the cat »

In post 1573, fferyllt wrote:
In post 1570, Hadrian wrote:
In post 1558, Kdub wrote:Spy following morph tonight seems like a good idea. Quill should probably motivate either Porkens or SpyreX, though I'm not sure which.
Porkens if aun flips town, SpyreX otherwise, I guess?
In post 1558, Kdub wrote:
In post 1533, Hadrian wrote:(We're definitely not going to be gladiating username; that wouldn't help at all that I can see.)
Wait, why not?
I don't want to use my role simply for the sake of using a role. If we stick to the plan, then me having an extra vote tomorrow doesn't do anything to improve town's chances, does it?
In post 1562, Kdub wrote:Wait, if awesome flipping town already implies Hadrian is confirmed town, why not have Quill motivate one of me/Porkens/Hadrian, Spy follow morph, and morph redirect Quill to SpyreX? If Spy dies, that means the three confirmed town in that case (me, Porkens, Hadrian) are alive tomorrow and we have the numbers to beat a morph/Quill scumteam. If Spy lives, he can say whether Quill's motivate reached him or not, as well as give his follow result. Based on that information, we can probably figure out who the two scum are among morph/Quill/Spy.
Quill should motivate Porkens in this case, I think. Simply because Porkens is the only of us three to have a night action
to
motivate. (And would people with only a day action and no night action even get the notification that they were motivated? It's not at all clear to me after reading the wiki. Best to avoid the uncertainty, surely.)

Otherwise I agree that this is a good refinement of the plan (though the important thing, from my perspective, is that Morph agrees to redirect us to Quill tonight if username flips scum.)
I think this sounds good, but won't agree to it until tomorrow at the earliest because sleep is good and I need more of it before I commit to shit in this game.
sigh.

2 am posting.

more in a sec.
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