Open 708: Pick Your Poison - Game Over

[Beefster]

Thus why I eliminated that possibility as soon as I read his ISO. I was also wrong about him pushing all 3 current wagons, so that theory is completely wrong.

[CultOfAthena]

@Thor, can I hear more from you on your Max read?

Like what?
I've explained it already and am not hiding deeper/better evidence for a surprise reveal later.

I suppose I just lost track of your original reasoning for it – I understand that you were looking at the votecounts but I felt like there was something I was missing. Mind repeating the concise version of it?

Are we getting cold feet on the Athena lynch?
She did nothing but double down on EP earlier in the day and now she just pretended to engage with Thor about a read on me because the Errant push has lost steam.
She should of been analysing my play at the start of the day like everyone else.

What about what I've done has been "pretending"?

Nope staying on Athena.
If Errant was scum Moz would of been lynched yesterday
He had an easy chance to push that through but decided to bus hid buddy instead?
Nah

I'll say the exact same thing that I've been saying to Beef – EP voted tex at a point in the day yesterday when RC was hard tunnelling moz and it was an almost certainty that the moz wagon was going to go through. It was a play for distancing that backfired when the wagon actually switched to tex – moz describes it pretty well in 1934.

[CultOfAthena]

Beef – fairly confident the game ends when EP is lynched. He's not even making any pretense towards a defense anymore.

[Errantparabola]

VOTE: CultOfAthena

Anyone who has an inkling of a scumread outside of Athena, me, Maxous:
1) explain why you have that scumread (which I assume is on mozamis, the most likely scum outside of those three)
2) explain why you aren't willing to hop on whatever wagon finishes the day already, lynch down the line, and win, instead of draining town energy.

let's. do. something.
lynch me for all i care. I've been begging for death since day 2. I'll be the first to say that the bussing logic holds no weight. I don't think it clears me (and in a vacuum doesn't clear anyone else for that matter). The answer to "why would scum make a losing move" can be "because people will ask that question."
do it. just someone hammer someone.

Let's face it, Flubber and Klick and I are basically active lurking. Beefster has openly said that he wants this game to end. Thor, I appreciate you and you trying to make discussion here but look at how many people have already said they're going to stay on their votes.

Maxous: "nope staying on athena."
Beef: "what do i have to do to convince you to vote coa?"
CoA: "fairly confident the game ends when EP is lynched."
mozamis: "i don't understand people's resistance to EP."
Flubber: "my desired lynch is going through."

Thor, I'm sure you'll get peeved at me for having this opinion and for constantly being that annoying wet blanket who says we're not getting anywhere. But I really do think that. We're just going in circles and since the wagons are sitting there we're just talking about the same old associatives. everyone has expressed opinions on everyone. end the day. end the god damn day.

[TesXX]

Official Vote Count

CultOfAthena

(4): Flubbernugget, Maxous, Beefster, Errantparabola

Errantparabola

(3): CultOfAthena, Klick, mozamis

Maxous

(1): Thor665

Not Voting

(0):

None.

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2018-02-22 18:44:22)

[Thor665]

I need to finish this game before Earthbound Mafia starts so that I'm not in too many games...

I hope I never have to play with you again if you're town.

A little harsh, don't you think? I've just overextended myself a bit is all. I'm sure I'll get better before you have to play with me again. I'm effectively a newbie because I took a 6 year hiatus.

No, I don't think it's harsh.
You're literally saying you want to derp rush this game because you have another game coming up.
You should replace out of this game, or not join the new game if that's the case - derp rushing is insulting to everyone in this game that shares your alignment because you're straight up telling us that we're not worth your time.

I think saying that to someone is pretty harsh, and if you're the type to say that I NEVER want to play with you again until you learn proper game etiquette.

@Thor, can I hear more from you on your Max read?

Like what?
I've explained it already and am not hiding deeper/better evidence for a surprise reveal later.

I suppose I just lost track of your original reasoning for it – I understand that you were looking at the votecounts but I felt like there was something I was missing. Mind repeating the concise version of it?

I already did and we were already in a discussion about it;
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 5#p9953605
Feel free to pick back up the thread.


@EP - allow me to boil down your glorious and noble stance into how I read it;
"Dear Thor, if I'm scum I'm appealing to emotions and you should ignore me, if I'm town then I'm arguing that everyone is playing very poorly except for you - therefore *you* are the one who should change and come down to the low level of play others are using, like lurking and tunneling, rather than pointing out that we are lurking and tunneling and you should stop trying to encourage scumhunting because...well, it's *hard*"

To that, my response is this;
Feel free to offer a rebuttal or clarification of your stance.
I anticipate not being sold.

[Errantparabola]

1) At least do me the courtesy of not brushing off the first two questions, then. Or don't, I don't anticipate this discussion being particularly productive, and apparently neither do you.
2) I think it's a little ridiculous that you would call this tunneling or bad play. Both wagons have some plausible sense of going through (except for the one you're on!) and have been discussed by all parties on said wagons. I guess you could call it tunneling. Organized mass tunneling. A wagon, if you will.

[Thor665]

1) At least do me the courtesy of not brushing off the first two questions, then. Or don't, I don't anticipate this discussion being particularly productive, and apparently neither do you.
2) I think it's a little ridiculous that you would call this tunneling or bad play. Both wagons have some plausible sense of going through (except for the one you're on!) and have been discussed by all parties on said wagons. I guess you could call it tunneling. Organized mass tunneling. A wagon, if you will.

1. The first two questions don't apply to me because they're based around a concept of scumreads I have not advanced. So it's not a matter of disrespect for me not to answer them.

2. Tunneling is seeing a scumread to the exclusion of others. I think that does apply to the CoA wagon (and to a lesser extent the EP one) and the number of people tunneling does not actually affect the ability to identify it as tunneling.

I will also note that there have been a handful of people I've asked to explain their reads - and gotten nothing out of in exchange. Which is very supportive of my core claim that bad play is happening. Even a bad logic based wagon should be able to be explained. When the explanation is that I'm being over emotional for not being able to understand the wagon then...well, there's probably an issue with the core wagon.

[Thor665]

Like, let's break down a couple of the people I've asked and their answers;

I asked Mozamis, his answer;
Thor is so emotional in his hatred of Moz that he can't support lynching CoA (even though I just agreed with Thor that Moz's push on EP and Klick was pretty iffy, but *this* time it's due to emotions!)

I asked CoA, her answer;
Dropped the subject entirely and then asked me to restart it at square one because she forgot we had already been discussing it apparently.

I have pointed out that Beef is changing his opinion every three posts.
He hasn't denied this, and it's objectively true - thereby suggesting his work is empty.

You are currently advocating for a wagon, any wagon, even yourself, due to town "strain"
So, if you're town, basically you're giving up on the game, don't care about your wincon, and are pretty near to the line for game throwing, or you're scum. So that's swell.

Klick is a lurksack.
Flubb is a confirmed town lurksack, which is even worse.

So, very sorry if you find me asking for people's reads to be stressful.
I find other things in this game more stressful - such is life.

[Errantparabola]

What do you mean by not advanced?
Also, I would say believing the game is almost certainly won for town already and throwing the game are two different things. I dont mind getting lynched because its in the pool of people that will get us there. But whatever.

[Errantparabola]

Are you no longer willing to flip Max and Athena in either order then?

[Thor665]

What do you mean by not advanced?

I mean your question was prefaced by "anyone who doesn't think the last scum is in EP, CoA, Max answer these two questions"
I've advanced the idea that last scum is CoA or Max.
So why would I answer those questions?

Also, I would say believing the game is almost certainly won for town already and throwing the game are two different things. I dont mind getting lynched because its in the pool of people that will get us there. But whatever.

Anyone claiming the game is almost certainly won is lying to me or to themselves.
We don't know gak.
For all you know I'm aggressive bussing scum - then where's your "win so close we might as well shut off our brains"?

[Thor665]

Here's another hint - to yourself you're confirmed town.
So you SHOULD mind being lynched unless you're trying to help scum's wincon.

[Errantparabola]

I've advanced the idea that last scum is CoA or Max.
So why would I answer those questions?

Are you reluctant to hammer Athena because Flubber will have some good content to contribute today before dying?

[Thor665]

I'm reluctant to hammer Athena because I've town read her most of the game and don't like to vote people I'm unsure of.
I gave up on Flubber helping this game on Day 1.

[Klick]

I agree with the stance EP is taking that this day is basically stagnant until a lynch is achieved.
The reason I haven't done so much is because my stance has failed to change significantly. Nothing is changing, and I have the possibly pessimistic opinion that nothing will change for some time. And contrary to what Thor is implying, it's okay to end a day if things are getting stagnant and not many people are posting.
With that in mind:

I'm willing to hammer COA. I'm continually flip-flopping on my read of her, and despite my reasons to townread her I would not be

surprised

if she flipped scum. But the main reason I'm fine with this is because she's been the only person today who has been playing totally survivalist. Reading over today, I have trouble seeing the scum motivation in EP and Max's posts - but COA's is crystal clear.

VOTE: CultOfAthena

Here's hoping.

[Maxous]

Max: CoA is scum because look how easily she swayed off of EP to suspect me suddenly!
Thor: How is that scummy?

I think CoA is scum because
1) Lack of a reason to townread her other than maybe one texcat post
2) Barely interacted with either flipped scum which is common
3) Texcat was soft-scum reading Athena but never actually voted. Which is consistent with how little i think he scum really bussed.
4) I've explained reasons why i think every other player in the game is town.
5) I thought her doubling down on EP at the start of today and not properly considering other options was poor.

But fine, i'll quote it.

[Maxous]

and i've just seen the hammer

still, fuck it though

Spoiler: Athena's Start of day 3 posts

If COA is scum, she hasn't bussed, though this sticks out to me as possible buddying/IIOA:

You're saying that I was buddying my scum buddy?

Does that make sense to you?

---

VOTE: Errantparabola

Seems like RC had it right come the end of the day, and this is where I'd like to begin for today. I'll try to make a more detailed case when I get the chance. Sincerely doubt that town loses this one at this point.

Errant has terrible associatives with texcat and I'm not sure how you all aren't seeing it. I'll go through them.

texcat: That line thing looks like a smart way to format posts. In fact, I’m doing it right now. Thanks texcat. I'll give it a test run, see if I like it.

If you read 178, he gives some kind of read on literally every single other player that he mentions except for texcat, who he simply makes a comment to regarding using lines for formatting. Even further, there were multiple people he didn't mention at all in his readslist, so it's not even as if he was going and commenting on everyone – it seems to me like he felt the need to mention his scumbuddy but didn't have a meaningful comment to make.

That is the only mention of tex for day one.

Flubber:

Your sudden focus on texcat doesn't make sense to me. What about her catchup that you reference in 179 is weird? Is it just lack of content?

Defends tex where HWS was doing the same thing, possibly coordinated in daychat:

1261 is large to the point where I don't want to quote it but it's basically the classic oblique angle that scum take when talking about a scummy partner, the "willing to vote there but I have other avenues I'd rather pursue", same thing in 1492.

---

RC's gonna hate me if he ends up being right, but I'll go here for now, I think I vastly prefer it.
VOTE: texcat

His vote on tex in 1627 comes at a time when it looked almost certain that moz was going to get lynched and despite EP expressing willingness to vote moz beforehand – that's a play for looking good on VCA and doesn't come from someone who had a real scumread on mozamis.

Around 1700 RC switches off moz and begins considering the possibility of an EP/tex scumteam, and then EP enters the thread with this:

think scum just wins this game. It doesn't seem plausible that all remaining scum is in {Maxous / tex / Klick / moz} just from basic scumteam theory. I'm also really surprised that RC scumreads me, the distance from my scumgame here is extremely easy to identify

And RC notices the exact same thing that I did:

why did you suddenly get super demoralized when I expressed support for the same lynch that you did and stopped voting someone you thought was town?

EP's explanation in 1710 speaks to the

content

of what he was saying, but I don't think he can conceal the emotional reaction contained within 705 initially.

---

It seems like nobody else shares my opinion on this, and I'm not sure why. If it's just for the tex vote yesterday, I think it's very realistic that scum!EP feels like it's necessary to bus tex in the situation that he was in, and the context surrounding his vote makes me think that it's very likely.

Remember when Texcat and Hewho were the big wagons?
Cult was on the Beef "wagon" which was going nowhere.
Then she sat on EP ALL day yesterday. Never moved her vote. And came in today voting EP again. Shes not gamesolving.
She's scum.

The beef wagon was the largest wagon of day one at one point. I voted Klick initially day two before moving to EP, and just because I never moved my vote doesn't mean that I wasn't gamesolving – see my questioning of max, klick, and my trying to convince RC that you're town.

I feel like you're making the same mistake with regards to me that you did in 702.

I'm going to walk through a series of questions with you, CoA. Please answer them to the best of your ability.

1) How confident are you that I am 3rd scum?

Reasonably so, and more than the other potential candidates.

By the way, another thought for those of you who think that I'm the last scum: quite clearly I'm comfortable hard defending people I townread, as I did with mozamis. If I were scum with HWS and texcat, why just let both of them get lynched when I could have defended them the same way and not had it be suspicious or uncharacteristic?

that's a distinct difference from the likes of

Spoiler:

has cult been on any relevant wagons all game?

Klick too, methinks.

mozamis
CultOfAthena
Maxous
Errantparabola

The above is pretty much my current lynch pool.
I personally softly am leaning town on Cult and Moz, so am kind of interested to see the Cult case.
Feels like Max or EP are the smart money bets.

and

Spoiler:

i susopect it is cult. she's agood palyer, and yet she's been l;ike a fartin the wind all game. I cant remember ever PUSHING anyone all game.
And the vote on Ep...how original lol She's vote parking.
However, I'm not completley sure yet.

Look at Beef, Thor, Max - they are all putting reads, a bit unsure, THINKING about the game, different options.
Cult comes in and says "EP."
She's shows no ignorance.

So P.O.E Moz, Thor, Beef, Max, Flubb = town.
scum must be in Cult, Klick, Ep.

Who considered all the other players in the game, knocked them off and THEN tunneled or honed in whatever.

[TesXX]

I'll be back tomorrow to post the flip.

[TesXX]

jk

Final Vote Count

CultOfAthena

(5): Flubbernugget, Maxous, Beefster, Errantparabola, Klick

Errantparabola

(2): CultOfAthena, mozamis

Maxous

(1): Thor665

Not Voting

(0):

None.

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2018-02-22 18:44:22)

[TesXX]

3

[TesXX]

2

[TesXX]

1

[TesXX]

0

[TesXX]

she was a VT