Mafiascum.net

Anyway here's a fancy tier readslists. The order inside the tiers doesn't matter at all, just how they came to mind for me. Also heads up, (Wisdom especially you're gonna hate this but) most of these reads are grounded in an Axiomatic Galron Is Scum assumption.



- Mechanically cleared. If Galron is scum, there's almost no role I can think of where it makes sense for him to visit a scum partner on N1, unless he's a mafia doc. If Galron is town, he claimed an inno result on her slot. I trust y'all to only revisit this if Galron's scum with a role that would visit a teammate

- I think everyone mostly agrees Luke feels pretty obvtown by now? He radiates conviction in his beliefs and arguments, I haven't detected any real AgendaPosting or contrived reasoning - even when I didn't grok the nature of his DV scumread he was able to demonstrate to me that it was genuine - mixed with some solid towntells like completely mixing up CoF/StrangeMatter (I'm convinced scum would be too careful/paranoid to make such a mistake). Has consistent presence touching on the major through lines of the game, clear interest in proactively pushing his scumreads without backing down from pressure or scrutiny.

- Another slot that took me a little while to come around upon but now I see as strong town. My early point about truly subtle hydra dissonance (419) I think is still quite strong. I also liked 761 a lot, that's the kind of post that comes from town consistently evaluating new posts and information rather than scum pursuing an agenda. I also thought their continued pressure on Wheme in light of his claim, done in real time, felt genuine. Advocated for Galron lim before I outed my result (1112). And all of their engagement with my Galron result today I see as townie, the conviction in Galron elimination being the correct choice I don't think comes from scum here because a) if partners with Galron, there's a slight hope we lim elsewhere and b) if scum in town!Galron world, it's not necessary to champion his elimination as he's dead man walking at some point in this game. And they've been doggedly insistent on it in a way that forces the issue with themselves at the front of the conversation.

- I hear Bell only posts this much when he's town, and he's been posting this much. Also, will die when Galron dies, so not much need to sort even if he's fooled us all.

- Has got a self-resolving claim that feels completely believable, and I actually like their train of thought at points (628, 1080, 1426) even if it's rarely shared and a little sparse. I'd maybe reconsider if they claim the poison is removed without another town player backing it up, but for now seems fine to throw into a locktown bin.



- I really feel the 1248 / 1254 posts spew Dunn as town, assuming scum!Galron. Dunn was not making excuses for Galron at all, he criticized a singular point I made, the fact that Galron embellished this strongly suggests to me that Galron wants to make Dunn look bad. The particularly insidious thing about the "he's defending me too much" sort of shade is that it still could stick to Dunn even if Galron red flips, which is why I don't believe the intent is to distance but rather to throw dirt on a clean townie. He's also somewhat mysteriously the main point of focus right now at a time when I think scum want to lim outside of Galron, no matter what Galron's alignment is (as it would serve them to keep an easy miselim alive another day)

- Early vote/pressure on Galron and I think her arguments and play on D2 has also felt natural and genuine much like Bowser Jr's - I especially like that she calls him town and threatened Galron to not shade/vote obvious townies. My only worry here is if I'm a million percent wrong on Galron/many of my other reads, she strikes me as someone with a capable scum game, but in most universes I think she's town and I'd really only re-evaluate her if the situation was dire.

- I've waffled a fair amount on these two but I think most of the things I don't like from them are probably non-indicative. Marci has been a bit sassy/confrontational in a way I don't like, but I don't think it aligns with what I understand to be a timid scum meta. Gamma is unpleasantly angry at points, but I think the frustration at hydra dissonance / appeals to Luke and me are ultimately genuine. I think he's usually a bit more in control of his emotions as scum, and really the only way where his rage here makes sense as scum is if it's exactly Galron/OTH/JC team and he's fighting a desperate battle because they're screwed otherwise. I see that as somewhat unlikely even if Galron/JC are confscum. Also, the D4 IC claim doesn't feel fake to me either. The biggest thing I don't like from them honestly is the way they kinda disappeared over last weekend, but I could imagine that being laziness on either part when neither agree with each other's reads and haven't had time to fully sync yet. I also didn't like the Dunn vote but I think Gamma's conviction in it is Real.

- Titus is classically a difficult read for me, I almost never feel good about reading her and I don't have an intuitive sense of her town/scumtells, but I think the early interaction with Galron (405 and 427) doesn't strike me as theater - I think Titus from what I know of her is more inclined to distance/bus her buddies than give them early token townreads, and I think Galron's intent with 427 is to get Titus to give him more Public Towncred in the thread rather than to chit chat with a buddy. If they were S-S this dialogue would vibe a bit more self-conscious knowing that Galron is Actually Scum. I also thought her argument with JC late D1 looked quite good for her, especially if JC is scum, but even if she weren't.



- I don't know how to read Wisdom. He definitely took a backseat D1, I haven't felt any burning town conviction from him in his reads at any point this game though I don't think that's necessarily a slam dunk scumtell. The fact that he's been consistent kinda pushing me away from Galron and suspecting Dunn even before I outed my result (1066) makes it feel more genuine to me? I don't like his Dunn suspicion nor his Galron townread, but my main hesitation is that I don't know if I can convince myself that scum!Wis with scum!Galron says that he thinks Galron is likely town (1433)?? I dunno, I don't have great reasons to read him either way, if Galron's scum he's probably town, but I'd love to get some mechanical info to help with this one.

- Very similar to Wisdom, I don't know if I've felt strong beliefs from him about anything and he's just treading water, and I think he's competent enough as a player to do this as either alignment. I don't think I've disliked any of his posts and if I had to put money on it I'd bet town, I just don't trust him as much as everyone in the tiers above. The latest bit of role PM questioning is probably the towniest thing he's done so far, I'd give him some decent towncred for that, but you gotta take a real hard look at him if he's still kicking it lategame and the main suspects have all flipped town.

- I liked a ton of DV's early game posts and reads, at times I felt very mind-meldy with him, but hard for me to shake the feeling that he's been coasting on D2. I feel he's doing enough to avoid being strongly pressured and not a lot to push or sort players today, watching from the sidelines. I could imagine him being a skilled player emulating Reasonable and Relaxed Town Thought Processes, or he might just be a real Town Player With Reasonable Thought Processes. He doesn't have a lot by way of Galron interactions which I see as a fairly substantive point against him. 1244 especially is a notably bad read IMO, but again I have doubts over whether he actually feels comfortable enough posting that when he knows I'm tunneling his partner. I want to townread him more than I do, but I don't have a lot of other suspects.



- Can we revisit Pavowski, cause I see a lot of "obvtown" reads flying around and I had kinda shelved him there myself earlier, but now on closer inspection I don't know why I think he's town?? His ISO is filled with a lot more jokes and casual riffing than actual Playing and Sorting, I def feel vibes that he wants to fit in. He has early game chit chat with Galron, then shades him a bit in 458 and 464 but it doesn't go anywhere, even after he unvotes COF in 497 which would be a natural time to chase a new suspect. I thought his engagement with Wheme was kinda the worst of all the major Wheme wagon voters. There's the bad VCA positioning I called out in 1521 - Ceph and OTH especially I'd like you paying attention to this. Also, I was thinking at early D2 that scum might be worried about me death tunneling Galron (and may even suspect I have a guilty given Galron potentially performed the NK), and so I see a post as 1238 as definitely in that mold - votes Galron but not with a ton of conviction, and buddies up to me in the process. I'm scum and I want to vote my partner and get towncred, this is exactly the post I think I'd be incentivized to make. 1245 is interesting - one of those posts where if I knew Pav was town for sure I'd say he's exactly right and it's a good point against DV, but given that a scum!Pav would know that Galron is scum, could be jumping at a chance to make a townie look bad after Galron redflips. 1518 is a bit of a purposeless post unless he thinks Luke might be scum. 1664 is alarmingly thoughtless to try to tie flavor to alignment.

Idk, I see a lot of yellow-to-red flags with Pav and I think he makes sense as a Galron buddy. Galron also suddenly suspecting Pav could easily be distancing, and it seems to have worked looking at Gamma's reaction to it.



- Just wanted him here for completeness sake. I can kinda get the mechanical argument for leaving him alive, but I think you're wildin' if you think he actually might be town. I tracked him to two players. One of those players died. The other one has already confirmed a negative utility effect happening to them. He's been loverized with an obvtown. His claimed night action doesn't really make a ton of sense and his justification for it doesn't either. His claimed ability to upgrade to rolecop doesn't make sense because parity cop is equal to if not a stronger role. I said I would track him again tonight to check him and he tried to imply he might upgrade to a rolecop (which he claimed would cost gold), despite also claiming to be robbed at the start of the day. His reads are inscrutable and all over the place. He's been absent for large stretches of the game. I was able to write what I think is a fairly decent case on him even not considering any of these role factors (1231). He's scum.

Sorry for the giant wall but please read it through at least once and consider it my Last Will and refer back to it after I am dead. Unless Galron is town, in which case disregard it completely and form your own reads cause I'll have thoroughly borked the gamestate.

oh siiiick didn't even realize that was a page top, beautiful

In post 1638, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:Ceph/Dunn/??? are my like, scum concepts rn.

DV? Maybe pav

In post 1642, Lukewarm wrote:

In post 1638, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:OTH/Galron/???

Oh look, my current solve

Both town, fix your reads

In post 1644, Galron wrote:The only quote I have is "be not afraid the island is full of noises"

That cant be true, ffery even asked us to confirm our role pms using the text of our third ability if I remember correctly
So you should have at least three

In post 1675, Pavowski wrote:I am being dumb again, what I mean is I do not know if a uPick means the names and flavors and inputs from players have anything to do with alignments when they shake out in role assignments.

They don't
I only picked villains and I'm town

In post 1749, Wisdom wrote:

In post 1624, Lukewarm wrote:lurk Dunn = town Dunn.

No. Dunn lurks as scum.

This

Note to self: Look at the VCs tomorrow

We only have like 21 hours left as of this post.

Move your votes to Dunn.

In post 1749, Wisdom wrote:

In post 1624, Lukewarm wrote:lurk Dunn = town Dunn.

No. Dunn lurks as scum.

I literally just did an analysis comparing like 8 Dunn games. He posted less then the average player in absolutely every game that I compared. So he "lurks" in all games lol. But her lurked harder in his town games then his scum games.

Like, by enough that a simple Google spreadsheet conditional formatting spit out his correct alignment 6 times and inconclusive twice. With zero mistakes (once I corrected Gamma misremembering his alignment in one)

So, I am not saying that scum Dunn does not lurk. He is always below average in posts. But town Dunn lurks harder.

Feel free to link me more games you would like ran into my spreadsheet. More data points is always good, but so far every game I have been linked to for Dunn has held up this pattern.

And like, I am not using that spreadsheet to sort him (and don't expect anyone to town bin him for it) , but I think it pretty handedly shuts down the idea that lurking is scum indicative for him, so that is definitely not an angle that I find at all persuasive.

In post 1760, Lukewarm wrote:

In post 1624, Lukewarm wrote:

In post 1580, Off The Hook wrote:it's hard to verify how his posting rate measures to each game without doing some fancy shit I lack the time for

I did fancy shit because why not?

Spoiler:

So, I ran all three games that you linked as well as every game that I can remember playing with Dunn through the spread sheet. Calculated Dunn's percentage of all posts made day 1 compared to how many players were in the game, then did conditional formatting to color his higher post rate games green. (because you are positing that lurk dunn = scum dunn) to then see if there is any corrolation.

The conditional formatting guessed incorrectly 4 times, got it right 1 time, and then it did not give a result on his middle of the road game.

If anything, this is wrong more then it is right, and lurk Dunn = town Dunn.

@titus

Also I was informed that he was actually town in forest fire (so that is not updated in the image)


(Ebwop)

In post 1750, GuiltyLion wrote:His claimed ability to upgrade to rolecop doesn't make sense because parity cop is equal to if not a stronger role.

Pretty sure he said the upgrade is he gets the role of one of the players on top of the parity cop

GL I like your reads. Ceph, DV, Pav are down there for me too, and I similarly had written Pav off too for some reason. I'm sure if it weren't for your wrong take on Galron we'd agree on Dunn too.

Glad to see we have a bit more time. I panicked this morning when I saw the thread locked.

I don't want to kill Dunn. If we are taking galron off the table, and I need to compromise I could possibly do cephir.

Wisdom, and lld, how do you guys feel about cephir?

Also, gl. Your reads list is like exactly mine, but with pav and oth flipped lol

Ok, I was looking back on stuff that happened last night and I don't think Galron was the person who robbed me. I got my wages at the end of day 1. It appears that I wasn't robbed until the dawn actions. My notice about the missing gold didn't come until start of day . Did it happen like this for anyone else?

I also received a piece of paper that had 4 lines of dialog that was there when I woke up.

In post 1771, Skybird wrote:Ok, I was looking back on stuff that happened last night and I don't think Galron was the person who robbed me. I got my wages at the end of day 1. It appears that I wasn't robbed until the dawn actions. My notice about the missing gold didn't come until start of day . Did it happen like this for anyone else?

Is there a reason you think this didn’t occur as a night action though?

It might be helpful to know if GL received his result at beginning of dawn or beginning of day