Partition Mafia Scum Topic

[zMuffinMan]

whether or not to kill eddie or DV is the question

kind of depends on what the consequences of leaving eddie alive will be

hmm

[zMuffinMan]

hmm

i suppose we have the option of not killing anyone tonight?

would be funny to split groups like

wisdom+DV+NSG+eddie
fitz+buj+realman
kok+me

[zMuffinMan]

too... many... possibilities

ugh

[zMuffinMan]

im sleepy and this is prob bad idea but

what if

group 1: buj

group 2: wisdom

group 3: everyone else

this would be pretty funny - it would require killing eddie though

[zMuffinMan]

the problem with saving the kill is that there exists a variety of ways we don't get to use it as a result

eg eddie shifting groups around in such a way that either 2 town die or 3 town+1 scum die...

then even if somehow someone were cleared, we couldn't use it because we'd be either 3:2 or 4:3

that's why im inclined to say use it... but i suppose we can keep it as a just-in-case thing...

[zMuffinMan]

come up with a suggested split we each like best i suppose then go from there

ill have a bit more a think and propose one soon

[zMuffinMan]

one thing about that grouping - the 1-1-1 split kind of relies on eddie swapping say buj into G1 to make it work...

gonna think while i get dinner ready

[zMuffinMan]

moving fitz to another group might work
i think i still like the original group idea i had too

[zMuffinMan]

if so many people didnt think fitz was scum, itd be fine...

hmm

[zMuffinMan]

im just worried people ignore the guilty again and lynch the group with fitz in it...

[zMuffinMan]

pretty much got to gamble on eddie's swap benefiting us lol

[zMuffinMan]

let's see

who's suspicious of who?

we have...

DV thinks fitz is scum and POE will probably lead him to two of { me, kokichi, realman } unless he changes his mind about wisdom but i dunno if that's a safe assumption so he's a decent kill

eddie when last he gave reads thought wisdom/buj were more likely scum than kok and said i'm town but that may have changed by now, it's hard to tell - i'm not sure where he stood on fitz but i think he thought fitz was most likely to be scum out of G1

NSG hasn't been in the game for like 40 pages so she's an enigma - i think it's a safe assumption that she thought kok was most likely town in G2 though and was wary of buj given her "be sure of buj before going through with the plan" comment

wisdom obv will prob still think im scum tomorrow and prob still think fitz was scum from G1. he might be suspicious of eddie too. not sure where he'll land on buj+kok but i guess it's safe to say he'll also be suspicious of kok too... ironically, he probably has the best reads in the game apart from DV D1 but it's based on an entirely faulty assumption about where scum was in his group rofl. not too worried about where he'll land tomorrow, his credibility will have been shot after D1

realman probably will still fall in line with wisdom but that one is hard to predict

buj i dunno - i think he's more likely to think kok is scum than wisdom... but outside of that, anyone's guess. he called me town at the end of D1 though! that's promising!

[zMuffinMan]

i suppose the game is going to be decided on two factors:
- eddie's current reads, since his role is going to be a major factor in how the day ends up playing out
- whether buj and NSG still believe wisdom is scum and whether i can undermine that belief if it still exists (i'm probably going to rail pretty hard against wisdom tomorrow fyi)

hmm... i think i can maybe talk buj down but i just have zero experience with NSG so im not sure how that will pan out

[zMuffinMan]

i was thinking it would be funny to kill eddie and do a lolgroup of kokichi+wisdom+buj+realman

or kokichi+wisdom+buj+me

l o l

probably too risky

[zMuffinMan]

or it might work?

e.g. kill eddie, G1: kokichi, wisdom, buj, realman G2: me NSG G3: DV fitz

rofl

[zMuffinMan]

nah might be too obvious bait...

anywho, i guess my final suggestion would be either my initial suggestion
(kill DV, G1: wisdom NSG, G2: me kokichi eddie, G3: fitz realman buj) <- gambling on how eddie decides to use his role (though so is anything that doesn't involve killing eddie)

or possibly just the one that's currently submitted with maybe some tweaks maybe?

see what fitz wants i guess

i'm easy and i'll go with whatever you guys feel most comfortable with i guess

[zMuffinMan]

i'm gonna sleep in the next couple hours and i probably wont be around before the deadline after i fall asleep (deadline is 4am my time)

so

go with whatever you guys feel comfortable with, as long as you've weighed up the pros and cons

i'll roll with the punches and make whatever needs to work work

[zMuffinMan]

urgh, im just worried with the current submission that it'll be too obvious to anyone paying attention that fitz+wisdom in a group together is a setup

whatever

you two decide but just know that IF i see bussing as the optimal route tomorrow, i'll do it

though it would be nice to win D2 if possible

[zMuffinMan]

woke up... going back to sleep soon but... don't put wisdom and realman in the same group preferably - it'll breed paranoia about them splitting themselves up i think

i don't think eddie is guaranteed to site-flake - though i do know he said he's taking a break from mafia for a few days so something probably happened to him - not sure we should play around the possibility of him getting replaced or not. hmm

deadline is in about 3 hours

night

[zMuffinMan]

decide among the two of you what you wanna do anyway. night

[zMuffinMan]

1-1-1 is fine because leaving eddie alive almost guarantees he swaps someone and if he stays in the game he's likely to do a beneficial swap. 2-1-0 i guess is also fine but requires something like the initial group i suggested...

leaving DV alive is probably not a good idea; you die in every scenario DV is alive, so may as well make it 1-1-1 if you aren't killing eddie btw

anyway actually night for real this time

[zMuffinMan]

one last thing while i lay awake in bed and stare at my screen

DV will not move his vote off you tomorrow if you leave him alive so if you want to kill eddie youre either gonna need a 1-1-1 split... otherwise itll pretty much lose us the game i think...

[zMuffinMan]

anyway read #329 for a summary of where town's reads are...

also dont be so averse to the idea of bussing if need be - it's less than desirable but in some cases it's the best choice (eg if youre gonna leave DV alive please realise how that will play out for you)

[zMuffinMan]

mmm... i liked this grouping when i suggested it but it kind of relies on eddie being active and swapping in a certain way... if he gets replaced or is just generally inactive/doesnt use his role, this grouping is worse than the original one submitted

that said, i dont think it's the end of the world or anything... the purpose of this G2 is to aid in paranoia about wisdom who conveniently is in a group people are going to be scared to lynch

jusy need to use the right words to sway people

[zMuffinMan]

eddie (or his replacement should he be replaced) is the key to this day phase tbh

[zMuffinMan]

oh well, just started reading through eddie's recent site posts

i don't really know who eddie is but hopefully he's doing ok

today might not work out so well for us if he gets replaced! guess we'll have to wait and see

[zMuffinMan]

ah, well, i think if eddie's slot doesn't show up this might be bad news but eh we'll see

see what we can make of the day now i guess!

gonna take a nap then post stuff

[zMuffinMan]

i think im fine with this

if they lynch g2 now, play off the fact that i put myself in a group with you

if they lynch g3 now, i can play off that

[zMuffinMan]

eddie's switch was one of the ones i predicted but not the one i wanted

[zMuffinMan]

because of how eddie did that switch. it looks really bad with the timing

[zMuffinMan]

i suppose it's possible to turn it around and say "eddie's just dumb not scum" but i think eddie might even self-vote here rofl

[zMuffinMan]

it's possible to swing a lynch on G1 maybe

i wouldn't count on it though

i think eddie self-votes if at all here

[zMuffinMan]

lol wait i just realised eddie swapped kokichi into G3 to get G3 lynched

i suppose that means he thinks wisdom is town?

[zMuffinMan]

hmm i think any group getting lynched today is a real possibility

but i didn't think buj would be so set on his kokichi read!

[zMuffinMan]

er... his wisdom read rather...

[zMuffinMan]

gonna need to subtly sow seeds of doubt about that somehow... hm

gonna sleep for another hour or so, might think about thisa bit more after waking up

[zMuffinMan]

if G3 gets lynched i might have a hard time winning but it's still possible

if G2 gets lynched ill at least try to spend a significant portion of today making it seem like i am fine with a G3 lynch and want to avoid NSG being lynched

if G1 is lynched then yay but i doubt NSG self votes and that's an uphill battle convincing both buj and eddie to vote there (not to mention REAL MAN who is probably the most unpredictable element atm)

game is hard

[zMuffinMan]

ugh if id known buj would be this headstrong about wisdom being town id have suggested an entirely different strategy today

oh well

[zMuffinMan]

in retrospect, with so many unpredictable factors, it would have been much smarter to play a safer strategy today...

sorry!

[zMuffinMan]

the initial groups we submitted with a 1-1-1 split probably would have worked best actually but no point dwelling on that now!

[zMuffinMan]

UNVOTE:

damn

maybe lynching g1 is best after all

whether its eddie or realmen the other scum has to be nsg here

yes, wisdom, come to the dark side

[zMuffinMan]

dead thread right now must be having a ball

[zMuffinMan]

i really want to know what got wisdom paranoid of NSG

whether it was something she said, something i said or some combination of both

anyway, brb work

it goes without saying if there's another vote on G1 we should CO-ORDINATE THE QUICK HAMMER IN HERE, do not just vote willy nilly and scare people off. i'll check in periodically (or sporadically, depending on my schedule)

[zMuffinMan]

i think with a slight push i could see buj voting group 1 maybe?

hard to say what REAL MAN is going to do when he comes in

[zMuffinMan]

buj reminds me a bit of titus

[zMuffinMan]

hmm

buj is a lost cause so i'm not gonna bother trying to convince him

i honestly cant think of words that would make him reconsider the eddie read because he's so set on it being a scum move!

and because of that he's drawing incorrect assumptions that happen to benefit him!

goddammit

[zMuffinMan]

i think IF you can subtly nudge the idea that eddie might be dumb (antitown) town into buj's head, you could try that fitz? i think he town reads you apart from the eddie thing anyway

but i dont think i have a hope given his suspicion of eddie+me

pretty dumb to even try at this point so i'm largely gonna ignore buj and focus on the others (it's gonna be hard to get 5 votes on G1 before eddie gets back though and i don't even really know where eddie votes today so *sigh*)

[zMuffinMan]

i need to stress *SUBTLY* there because if you make it too overt, wisdom might go "oh fuck G1 im moving back to G3"

[zMuffinMan]

fitz... we need to have a talk about your future in this company... if you keep letting wisdom do your job for you, you might need to find a job elsewhere

[zMuffinMan]

GIVE HIM A LITTLE BIT MORE OF A PUSH WISDOM

HE'S ALMOST READY TO VOTE G1

[zMuffinMan]

dead thread is hoping wisdom is gambiting now im betting

[zMuffinMan]

if you do post now fitz, try not to shake up the status quo too much! i like where it is right now, i wouldn't want wisdom to get shaky about his vote!

[zMuffinMan]

out of interest, do you keep trying to fake town slips with the group confusion or is that unintentional?

[zMuffinMan]

you did it some time last night

[zMuffinMan]

I JUST WANT REAL MAN TO POST SO I KNOW WHERE HE STANDS lol

[zMuffinMan]

if G2 gets lynched im not _too_ worried but ideally either REAL MAN or buj switches votes G1 and we just end it today

we'll see what happens i suppose

[zMuffinMan]

@implosion

some clarification on this rule please:

Don't try to get tricky; if it looks like a vote and is bolded, I will count it as a vote. Any attempt to abuse voting with trick votes or fake votes will be punished harshly.

does something like

Vote: Group 2

count as a vote?

[zMuffinMan]

hmm

i feel like someone hurt you with a fake vote gambit in the past

im sorry if i brought up painful memories

[zMuffinMan]

i don't think they're more against the spirit of the game than any other gambit that involves an event happening and people reacting to that event

it's all part of the game and figuring out the puzzle, as far as i'm concerned

e.g. i don't particularly like fake-hammers (e.g. from someone who was already voting or from someone who's pretending the person is closer to a lynch than they are) but they're along the same lines and perfectly within the game IMO - it's all about figuring out motivations and who's being genuine in the end

(not trying to convince you of anything here, just stating why i disagree)

[zMuffinMan]

48 hour prod timers with a 24 hour grace period in 8-day deadlines seems silly to me

[zMuffinMan]

this game is incredibly boring now because literally more than half the town isn't in the game

NSG is posting next to nothing, REAL MAN hasn't even been on site in 3 days and eddie is AFK for at least another 2 days or some shit

even if we win this, it's going to be a fucking sad win

[zMuffinMan]

well REAL MAN probably has been on site on his main but not on this alt

[zMuffinMan]

i feel like buj is SOOOO close to voting G1...

SOOOOOO close

[zMuffinMan]

just needs a gentle push over the edge

where's wisdom when you need him?

[zMuffinMan]

oh looks like eddie might be posting soon

either a shit storm is incoming or a good thing is incoming

[zMuffinMan]

will hurricane eddie leave us relatively unscathed or will it ruin our lives?

[zMuffinMan]

why eddie...?


why...?

things were going so well, eddie...

[zMuffinMan]

if eddie is the town MVP by unintentionally getting me lynched today... im going to fucking lol

[zMuffinMan]

Could I have self voted and taken the 1 or possibly 2 sacrifices? yes. could muffin be scum? yes, and i think putting Kokichi with me resulted in the end goal of forcing me to use my action OR getting me lynched. Muffin could be scum very well sure, but I don't scumread him and I don't think scum would put a second scum with a player highly likely to get lynched. Regardless, I don't think its optimal to self vote and take down a scum for myself and a potentially town great player.

this is interesting. i actually predicted the direct opposite when i suggested this grouping/split (i.e. that eddie would get paranoid of ME, not kokichi)

hmm

[zMuffinMan]

eddie specifically wanted me to move kokichi out of g2 and lynch g2, which would actually have a worse result than what we got

this is why i thought he'd hard defend kokichi today!

didn't count on the DV flip changing that!

[zMuffinMan]

i think im gonna be pretty exhausted by the time i get home tonight so ill prob nap, wake up later in the night and see if anything has changed in thread when i do

hopefully REAL MAN just comes in and makes a REAL MAN vote on G1

[zMuffinMan]

no it doesnt, because realistically a 3p blitz is hard to do (without day talk of course - but town doesnt know we have that, i think...)

bbl

[zMuffinMan]

i feel if i don't vote G3 here i'm going to look infinitely worse if G3 is lynched

but if i do vote G3 here it's possible wisdom (and/or buj) just go "fuck it" and vote G3 too

[zMuffinMan]

i realllllllllllllly just want REAL MAN to come online and go "VOTE G1" orrrrrrrrrrr wisdom to convince buj to just vote G1 or something. sigh

[zMuffinMan]

muffin/Kokichi/fitz
muffin/Kokichi/Realmen
Eddie/Bu/muffin

Slightly more probable than muffin/Kokichi/Eddie but still, it's unlikely muffin chooses to group himself with Kokichi and Eddie. It's a group that gets lynched most of the time and losing two scum is not a good idea.

the flaw in the logic, of course, is that we were counting on eddie's swap shaking things up a bit

though i guess it's reasonable to assume i wouldn't risk eddie swapping another likely-scum player into our group?

hmm

i'll be honest, any groupings today had different risks associated with them - ruling any out is not something i would do as town

[zMuffinMan]

i THINK g1 can be hammered now but don't make any rash moves yet

the status quo is fine atm actually

let me do a quick rehash of where votes are (i think fitz, wisdom, buj are on G1 atm)

[zMuffinMan]

wisdom's last vote was 1937

fitz voted G1

buj last voted in 2078

i would suggest not doing anything now while everyone is still active, though; better not to risk us fucking up a hammer - we can co-ordinate it a bit later

[zMuffinMan]

my god i can barely see hyperlinks on the purple background, fuck these PT colours are shit

[zMuffinMan]

at least make hyperlinks pink or something in PTs

[zMuffinMan]

the green was awful, too

just a different kind of awful

[zMuffinMan]

QTs were good. why couldn't they just make PTs look like QTs?

[zMuffinMan]

green was better than purple though

[zMuffinMan]

i guess they wanted a theme that wouldn't conflict with any of the current skins and mafsilver/mobile are too similar to the QT white/grey schema? even though mafsilver is blue/white...

personally, i think a pure white/light grey schema is fine for PTs but eh, whatever

[zMuffinMan]

it's honestly refreshing to see someone actually care about dead people's reads

most of the time, people just forget or disregard anything dead players said

i know i do. my rationale is simply: dead players had even less information than i do (if im still alive), so any reads they had were less informed than any living player's reads, ergo they're (if anything) less likely to be correct (though really they're probably correct about the same as average)

it's nice to see someone who doesn't think like this though

[zMuffinMan]

i do feel really bad for NSG today

and part of me is rooting for her to turn it around and get a scum lynch on G3

[zMuffinMan]

sorrynotsorry to my buddies

but i think a part of me wants to see that sort of "justice prevails" story of a downtrodden townie turning things around in a miraculous comeback sort of thing

also i just feel really bad for the way wisdom has completely disregarded her on somewhat faulty assumptions

she could be playing it better than she has (e.g. it probably doesnt help her case that she antagonised wisdom a bit and has played the ATE card a lot), but she's putting a fair bit of effort in now and it would almost make me feel bad if she were hammered here

[zMuffinMan]

i'm scum and i didn't even know daytalk was confirmed. how the fuck does wisdom know? where was this announced?

[zMuffinMan]

HEY KOKICHI

when you see this, current plan is don't immediately hammer (don't want to make any mistakes with someone ninja unvoting somehow)

just post around when i post so people eliminate us as a team in the event G3 is somehow lynched

once we're confirmed as not being a team, can do whatever

i'd say we should co-ordinate a quick-hammer but i cannot make any guarantees while i'm at work so for now just posting around when i'm posting is good enough

sorry

[zMuffinMan]

honestly, even if you do put down a vote, i probably won't hammer without double- and triple-checking the current votes

so

just post while i post so people think we're not a team if G3 is somehow lynched, that's enough for now

[zMuffinMan]

i still think we can win this. i don't want to give up.

truly admirable

i feel so sorry

[zMuffinMan]

i think the fact that i care so much about winning this should be more convincing. i haven't lost a game as town in a while. to lose this one because of my own lynch would eat me up.

i feel really, really bad

[zMuffinMan]

it almost makes me not want to win

kinda feel like doing a "well i could hammer here and win but... i'm scum and i feel bad for NSG so i'm letting her have this win" post when G1 gets put to L-1...

but i think that's against the rules?

*shrug*

i still feel really bad for NSG here

[zMuffinMan]

Play to your win condition.

yeah, it is

too bad :/

don't particular feel a ban is worth relieving the guilt

[zMuffinMan]

go eddie! be the hero that town needs!

before that evil bastard kokichi comes online and lets scum win!

[zMuffinMan]

you have a small window of time to convince wisdom to unvote, eddie

do your best!

i'm not going to help, but i'm rooting for you!

[zMuffinMan]

REMINDER, KOKICHI!

when you post, don't vote G1 immediately. i'm pretty worried about wisdom ninja'ing a quick unvote before we can properly co-ordinate

just post whatever you'd normally post then i post then you post etc for now - no votes, no scaring people off

when i'm guaranteed not busy we can hammer

[zMuffinMan]

if i weren't literally about to head out the door i'd say hammer now but hold on

better to do it in around an hour and a half or two when im not busy. brb

[zMuffinMan]

can still post nonsense though just cant guaranteed co-ordination with a hammer atm

brb

[zMuffinMan]

k sorry prob wont be around for the next half hour but this should be good enough bbl

[zMuffinMan]

oh, uh... we shouldn't need to coordinate a hammer now anyway

[zMuffinMan]

ill do a last minute vote count check when I get back to my computer

but I think there's prob nothing wrong with voting separately now instead of together

[zMuffinMan]

anyway, i'll be here intermittently until i go home later. feel free to vote whenever

[zMuffinMan]

we don't need to co-ordinate a quick-hammer...

since we're technically confirmed "not scum" together after the string of posts. and there's no need to do something like that anymore...

just casually place down a vote (give a proper reason for it just as a failsafe - e.g. that you've read the recent stuff and think G1 is best lynch for whatever bullshit reason)

and then i'll do a quick recount to make sure mod didn't screw up the last vote count and hammer

[zMuffinMan]

yeah but we dont need to, really.

there's no point

i'm not going to drag this out. i just want to make absolutely sure there are no errors

ive fail quick-hammered before

never... again...

[zMuffinMan]

ok

so

wisdom is 100% voting G1: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10203561

cannot see any other vote shifts after that

havingfitz is 100% voting G1: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10205651

ok

and...

buj is 100% voting G1: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10207195

and...

With 8 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.

we're good to go, but we don't need to do anything stupid, so just keep the act up until the end

(never assume it's over until it's over!)

[zMuffinMan]

PLEASE NO VENGEFUL, IMPLOSION

PLEASE

[zMuffinMan]

i am really, really sorry for taking so long to hammer

[zMuffinMan]

i should have done it immediately, there were just so many fucking p-edits that i wanted to be sure. sorry

[zMuffinMan]

please don't think worse of me for it, i wasn't trying to mess with town or anything and PLEASE NSG IF YOU READ THIS DON'T FEEL BAD ABOUT WHAT HAPPENED IN THIS GAME