Mini Theme 2116 - Undertale S Open

[Chara]

And then tell me what demolished your confidence today, because the only relevant difference that i can see is Psyche's death, which has nothing to do with me or Hectic since he voted for sparing both.

this is a reminder that i have a question for you after Replica has answered this.

Do you think Replica answered?

If so, what was your question to me?

Also, what do you think of the current gamestate?

i don't think Replica answered in response to this, but i didn't want to affect the interaction right then. given his followups i believe Replica is of the opinion he did already answer, and i have to agree. the answer being that his confidence was not "demolished today" given he did not have that confidence day 2, either.

my question to you was this: your post here implies a belief that concrete flips are the only source of information worth changing opinions over. is this a fair statement?

current gamestate: i don't have the best sense of it honestly. i currently think we're sitting on two town spares and that both scum are in Nacho/Farkran/Chemist. if Amrun is scum she isn't trying to be spared and if Bingle is scum then i don't think Replica would be having quite as tough a time making that happen.
i'm aware going for mislynches is as valid a strategy, so no need to bring that up. reexamining Amrun is lower priority than Nacho but probably easier. Bingle and Amrun are never aligned but i imagine that's really obvious.

[Chara]

first pass on Nacho is there's a lot of Farkran interaction and i don't know how to get a conclusion out of it.
but out of time.
before i go: Nacho, i asked about your Replica townread not because i want a Replica towncase but because i want you to tell me why you strongly believe he's town.

[Chara]

haven't read the rest of that post Farkran but please check my ISO for Nacho. i remember saying a few times that i want to concentrate on him because i don't have a read.

[Chara]

universally scumread =/= slot that has a wagon

also, one does not really consider the ramifications of a 24h all-inclusive bar until one is staring it in the face.

[Chara]

hola.
as said above i'm indeed v/la. so for now... chilling.

pedit: how dramatic. not that i disagree.

[Chara]

Bingle: why is Chemist your favourite out of those three?

[Chara]

Okay

I don't really know where to start so I guess I'll just read random stuff again

Chara, Bingle, Nacho? i'd be interested in how you feel about your bottom three, if you want someplace to start.

[Chara]

Somewhere Nacho is sitting in a Nashville bar, sipping on a whiskey highball, listening to a Hank Williams cover band, not staring at a computer screen for hours at a time. I hate him for it.

you make a good point about how i could be spending the remainder of my evening....

but i like you people too.

[Chara]

...y-you wanna watch Cats (2019) together?

...kind of. yes.

Farkran: the listed deadline seems accurate based on what i told pops about my V/LA and the added 48 hours.

meaning i should do something if i have the time. which i do have, currently.

[Chara]

HEAL: Replica
i'm disappointed that my preference is still what i started the day with except i'm not. this is objectively the right thing to do. Replica's town, nothing i've looked at has really changed that and my

only

problem with the slot is he goes for a Bingle spare every time before one on himself. but i understand why. also if he is scum then the whole frustration bit would i think have to be faked.

re: Farkran's last post i really don't think Replica has been anything near unpleasant. he just scumreads you. he's also been analyzing, you just disagree. and you're wrong too, given you have Hectic scum still and i find it really pointless to argue about that further either.

HURT: Chemist
i want to spare Replica, but if for some reason that's not happening this is the only hurt vote i'm making today. and i'm sorry but while he probably is town if this is right i'm not comfortable sparing Bingle. i'm actually not sure if a Bingle mispare or a Chemist mislynch is worse. probably a flip is better than no flip. Bingle is a vague townread based on his posting today which i've liked, and Chemist is poe + i think a struggle to produce genuine content.

Chemist/Farkran does seem extremely obvious. i didn't manage to really get a read on Nacho i'm happy with, but i think he could be badly absent scum with Chemist (though i feel like scum Nacho woud make more of an effort? but this is a guess i don't know him well, based on my impressions from this game and what other players have said). i could see absent scum Chemist a little better, and especially his last few posts feel like an attempt at content that is just... there, and leads to a Bingle/Nacho solve.
and if Farkran is scum i find it unlikely it's with Nacho. as for Farkran himself, i'd compromise on that if it's literally the only option but i would absolutely prefer just sparing Replica. a Farkran townflip is probably good information too, scumflip's obviously good, but this consistent choice to double down on Hectic being scum as a scum strategy seems like a ridiculous amount of effort and i don't really understand it. also players i clash with this heavily do tend to be town more often than scum, though that feels anecdotal.
if Amrun

is

scum i haven't really checked who it would be with.

i'm going back home today but i have mafia time this evening. i wish i'd had the thought earlier of scum being absolutely unable to hard bus today because someone did mention it much earlier, and i knew it, and for whatever reason only now did the thought occur to me that scum who cannot bus means you wagon the hell out of the game.

[Chara]

Because literally nobody is listening to me, and i have been the most voted player since forever? If you were scum, who would you kill?

Amrun.

Amrun is the only person who has seriously expressed a desire to lynch me.

If Nacho was scum with Hectic, why does he shoot Psyche over the one person who is standing in his way? It just doesn't make sense. Psyche was townreading them both pretty vocally iirc.

Psyche was defending Farkran vocally as well.

Farkran: i haven't double-ISOed them and i still don't think Hectic is scum, but i will probably look because it feels only fair. what do you think of scum Nacho with town Hectic?

regardless i don't think Farkran is ever nightkilled in a town Farkran world anyway.

Amrun: how are you reading Nacho?
also: what did you get from Chemist's flip?

[Chara]

OK.

HURT: Farkran

I'll be flying out shortly which means that I'll spend my time catching up some time tomorrow - I see that I don't have a whole lot of catching up to do. I still don't think Hectic was scum and I can't see two scum in Amrun/Chara/Bingle so here we are!

i'd be interested in the process of eliminating teams within Amrun/Chara/Bingle. you might have done this yesterday, i don't remember.

[Chara]

Amrun and Bingle are still not scum together which leaves at least one for sure in Farkran/Nacho. actually when i think about that Farkran/Bingle makes the most sense.
Farkran iirc has been going for Nacho since yesterday, i don't remember where Nacho's reads were then right this second.

[Chara]

I think chemist flip added scum equity to nacho. It also adds credence to my Bingle/Farkran solve because Bingle went through quite a bit of effort to flip chemist “first.”

My read wavers on nacho quite a bit. If one of my scum picks is wrong, nacho probably fills in the gap.

Chara, same questions back to you.

my read on Nacho is still PoE but i think if scum Farkran is right he isn't my first pick for a partner. am i right to think that scum Nacho would have some more oomph? though even saying that i'd rather discard it because his activity has been compromised this game.

Nacho/Farkran doesn't fit because it feels weird for Nacho to spend the majority of his time interacting with his scumpartner last day. and if Farkran's town i'd lynch him before Bingle for sure.

how does Chemist flip add scum equity to Nacho besides removing one possibility for scum? i don't know if his townflip changes anything significant for me besides that.

i need to check what Farkran was at when i voted Chemist yesterday.

[Chara]

Amrun: why requote those? Bingle hasn't posted since 1am.

[Chara]

Farkran: i haven't double-ISOed them and i still don't think Hectic is scum, but i will probably look because it feels only fair. what do you think of scum Nacho with town Hectic?

Scum nacho does not spare town hectic, and you can read 2056 for full insight

Hectic is not town, there is no plausible reason to think he is town with this gamestate. The only slots who didn't endorse his spare were Farkran, Chemist and Bingle. Chemist flipped town (as expected), Farkran will flip town and Bingle too will likely flip town.

pedit: can you... stop for a second and tell me

why

hectic is town in your mind, besides social pressure (which is one of the most wrong premises to ever assume in a game of fm)?

i don't have the will to have this argument again. also i don't know why you bring up social pressure for Hectic being town when we've had enough arguments about my specific reasons for townreading Hectic.

like i was about to ask a question to further this but i just... really don't think it's worth the time? i don't think you'll change my mind and i doubt i'll change yours. sorry. i'd say we can talk about other reads but at this stage of the game i don't know if that helps either.
i'm sorry if you're town.

[Chara]

I think scum nacho would have more of an agenda/goal. He hasn’t had much of one, especially with Farkran. If he wanted to defend him, thats not the way to go about it, and vice verse.

Chemist added scum equity to Nacho because he was the primary pusher of that lynch, and simply by removal of PoE.

agree re Farkran/Nacho. and i know you know Nacho better but that does line up with my impression of him.

[Chara]

so i started looking at deadlines and vote patterns wondering why Amrun didn't insist on a Farkran flip after i voted Chemist (thus making the wagons 2/2), and instead went along and voted Chemist.

then reread my own post and realized i said Chemist was the only hurt vote i was making that day. so. i'm the fool.

[Chara]

1) so... the original point about him delaying his own spare? that was extremely significant for me. it's not really a

one

reason thing, the combination of reasons is what makes him town. reason two is paranoia of me followed by a rethinking, the only reason to do that as scum is to convincingly fake a progression (ie there's no agenda) and he felt consistently genuine. he's not townlocked, because that'd be like a clear. but he's really towny.

2) sure. if you're town as well it only means scum decided to let Hectic's spare through/actively support it for towncred and play the longer game.

if you say you disagree with my reasons and the discussion continues i'm still really not going to want to discuss it anymore. i'm not going to say "if Hectic's scum we're boned anyways" because the phrase is a pet peeve of mine, and i'm not going to say it's impossible for him to be scum either. but pursuing either of those options for me is where madness lay.

if you're town i do think it's extremely likely Nacho is scum.

[Chara]

Nacho: i took a look at his wiki a while ago but i lacked the patience to do a useful dive. his play this game didn't really seem similar to either the scumgame or the towngame i looked at.

and yes, it's PoE. i don't think Bingle/Amrun is a team and Hectic's town.

[Chara]

not

cool

with it, but i've been burned enough by "player A isn't posting, suspicious" to not really factor it in anymore.

but taking a break from this game today to deal with some things. Farkran's still my preference here i think. Nacho wanting to lynch in him/Farkran over Bingle is kind of interesting though, but i understand wanting to flip Fark first. then again Fark also agrees so i'll consider it later.
Bingle has some townlean points that make me want to prioritize Nacho/Farkran first as well. and i guess i don't find early game alimdia content to be really convincing, at the same time i know it's not like just ignoring things that happened earlier on is a

good

idea.

[Chara]

Bingle greenflip doesn't pseudoclear Farkran for me because i can see a world where Amrun/Farkran is a thing. in fact the only team i think i'm comfortable not considering outright is Bingle/Amrun, and then i worry about doing so with 100% certainty.

i don't think Farkran being a plausible partner to a lot of players is a reason against lynching him, if that was indeed the argument Bingle was making. his townflip would also make me look at Nacho next as most likely scum so i don't think a greenflip is low info at all.

actually given that a Nacho lynch is pretty much the same situation in reverse.

reading 2140 i actually do agree with the logic here, it sounds right to my memory, though i have no idea how Farkran (or Bingle for that matter) manages to keep this straight in his head.

but Bingle's right about yesterday being the best scenario for partner examination.

Bingle/Amrun is least likely as a team to me followed by Farkran/Nacho. i could see the latter as a team but it'd mean a really weird strategy from Nacho.

[Chara]

2) Any non-Hectic (and non-Nacho, because he was absent) solve would have powerlynched me d3 with everyone's blessing, don't you agree?

assuming you're correct given it lines up with what i remember, from a town! you pov i do understand where you get this from. i really didn't like any of your arguments for Hectic scum themself.

but from a town Hectic pov is does make me think the reason you haven't been lynched yet is because you're scum. though Bingle makes a good point about day 2 and you being townread by Psyche/Chemist/Nacho, so i don't think the narrative that you've always been easy to lynch is correct.

i know Amrun has gotten some scumreads but i don't remember her ever being seriously considered for a lynch. that might also be because i remember my reads better than others' and she's always been a townread. and i was pushing for a spare for most of the game to begin with.

i really really hesitate to say this

now

with hindsight but the lack of lynch -> flips looking back hurts. i don't know if we'd be better off today having spared Replica given i would still be scumreading Chemist. i also don't consider sparing Sujimichi or Hectic a mistake, so.

[Chara]

Amrun/Nacho?

i don't think Nacho has any significant associations with the living playerlist as a whole besides Farkran. similar to Bingle but the besides is Amrun. and these are reverse associations now that i think about it.

is saying "these players aren't a team" the townhunting equivalent of teamhunting?

[Chara]

Amrun/Nacho where Amrun is humming over a Nacho lynch doesn't exactly seem likely either, though then you can say the same thing about Amrun/Farkran. and that's without considering that distancing is obviously a thing so i shouldn't be reading into the offhand comments Amrun has just made as much as her big pushes throughout the game.

or i could just trust my toneread on her and be done with it.

in a vacuum i think Nacho and Farkran still have the best likelihood of being scum according to my reads. that Amrun has managed to stay a TR for this long while i've ended up reexamining her throughout the game counts for something for me. falling to lategame paranoia is a shitty way to go out. i wouldn't lynch her before whoever her partner is either so it's all moot.

all of that only to go back to Nacho or Farkran being the only lynches i'm considering today. it'd be nice if they were scum together, but a lot of things would be nice.

[Chara]

Amrun: what are your reads independent of team analysis?

[Chara]

Chara have you read Farkran's other town games at all whether by skim or by something else?

i meant to ask, did you get anything meaningful out of reading them?

[Chara]

looking again at Nacho's reasoning for eliminating teams in Bingle/Amrun/Chara i feel like the only one with a lot of strength is Bingle/Amrun. it seems like an easy way to vote Farkran.

Farkran/Nacho is actually probably as unlikely as Amrun/Bingle, not less. taking into account the whole game.

[Chara]

Nacho: why are Amrun and i your best TRs going into this day?

scum Nacho and town Farkran... does scum Nacho spend what time he has day 3 focused on Farkran? and i hope i'm remembering right and this was day 3 and not day 2. if someone could confirm or deny that would be nice. i'll look in a bit though.
i should really reread Farkran's day 3 posting because i feel like i'm in a better headspace to properly parse it this time.

[Chara]

Bingle... does scum Bingle enter the game and immediately sheep his partner without reading his case? maybe, though i'd have to laugh at it a little.
also just realized i've been on my phone for three hours straight and i need to go home. this is a bad habit. at least i'm motivated.

[Chara]

i keep arguing myself out of pairings. Bingle/Farkran is so obvious and Bingle says so in the thread and i'm thinking about it too hard. Amrun/Nacho means Amrun's been playing really really well and Nacho's been irl busy, which he has regardless of alignment. i feel like it's a not-obvious pairing but i'm going in circles at this point and don't really have a good way to back that up.

my thinking is Farkran is better given Nacho has zero defenders, but Farkran

also

has no defenders besides Bingle himself, who is then sticking his neck out to keep Farkran alive. does it actually make more sense to lynch Bingle first? the fact that Bingle is the one who presented that argument, though.

[Chara]

Actually, while the above is all true and part of my read, I picked Alimdia/asriel as having buddy equity on day 1 because it felt like alimdia was scumplaining that her buddy was getting pressured but Pine-town was also lurking and not catching flak.

And then the game keeps making sense for that team, day after day.

it took my brain way too long to translate alimdia/Asriel into Bingle/Farkran.

[Chara]

2154 and then Nacho at the bottom of Bingle's list feels weird. like he's arguing for an Amrun/Chara team to Farkran as part of the discussion but he's not actually committed to it.

[Chara]

Amrun's town. going from there. it's true she and Nacho make sense as a team but i can't ignore my Amrun read just for that, there's a reason i was confident. Bingle isn't the type of player i can be confident on and i think Farkran is the same. it's interesting to me that i could be so confident on Replica, but i don't think it's accurate to call Replica a 100% logical player, in spite of the mathematical arguments.
Nacho's logic from today feels weak, and i could definitely see a world with Nacho scum. Farkran/Nacho seems unlikely given today and yesterday, but i won't discount it entirely if they did just decide to bus.
that would also track with Farkran's Hectic/Nacho scum narrative, since Nacho flipping scum gives reason for Farkran to push for Hectic. and Farkran flipping scum after Nacho opens up with the strong bus vote looks good for Nacho. it does feel weak but i also don't want to BoP myself out've scum Nacho because he's having an off game/busy.

i'll reread tomorrow with that in mind i think, but if it can be discounted entirely as an option that's also helpful.

another reason for Amrun to be town is that she's seeing things from Farkran to townlean. sure she still ultimately thinks he's scum but there's something to be said for picking up on those. i also agree, tonally Fark has reasons to be town and though i feel none of it now, there was definitely a point i was frustrated interacting with him and that rarely happens with scum for me. like to the point i have to fight myself on autoscumreading anyone who is very agreeable.

if we do mislynch today then that makes the remaining pair the scumteam if i'm right on Amrun (and i really do think i'm right). that's partially comforting but it's not the same thing as convincing everyone else i'm both town and also correct. former thing i'm confident about at least. what worries me then is the vig shot.

[Chara]

Meanwhile, in your pool of three people, two people are mutually townreading each other and have person #3 at the bottom. The solution of "oh they're defending each other because giving town the catharsis of a scum flip here if they don't have to is insanely dumb" seems obvious to me - do you really disagree?

it does seem obvious, i don't disagree there.


feel the same way about Amrun today as i did yesterday. so i do want to lynch in this three, but ideally it's hitting the scum and not hitting the town.

[Chara]

@Amrun and Farkran about the game: agree! about the solving and about enjoying a game free of toxicity so far, i think.

i do think there's a world where scum Nacho is being bussed, but in that world i don't know if Bingle or Farkran get the necessary towncred from it to get to the end, enough that they choose that.

there's something about voting Fark over Bingle or Nacho that i don't like given i think i have more reasons to townread Fark, at least in terms of enduring ones, where Bingle and Nacho are comparatively flimsy. and it's nice in theory to say "if Farkran flips town, then Psyche should shoot in Bingle/Nacho, preferably Bingle", but it's a different matter to actually vote with that in mind.

i hate when logically something seems right but it doesn't feel right, because it means either the logic or the intuition is off. in this case i'm leaning it's the intuition that's off.
Nacho makes good points about Farkran's towngame, and i believe he put in the effort with it.

[Chara]

Nacho: why are Amrun and i your best TRs going into this day?

Gut. Feel more of an emotional connection to you two than to either Bingle or Farkran.

this is really vague and i'd love if you could elaborate. the problem i have with it is mainly that Amrun and i are i believe more emotional players in a very general sense, while Farkran and Bingle are the logical type.

i do like your argument for scum Farkran. also i know gut is gut and you can't always explain it but it'd help me if you gave it a shot.

[Chara]

re: Psyche, the other reason i'd be really happy with a scum lynch today is because it better informs the shot.
i don't think it's worthwhile to worry about what Psyche's reads were earlier. i really doubt he's just checked out.

[Chara]

Night three begins. Please submit night actions, kills in the mafia PT, friendly neighbor visits by PM. (expired on 2020-02-25 20:00:00)
Modnote: Psyche gains spare PT access.

pretty sure there's no confusion about it, but still.

[Chara]

i like Farkran's attitude this day a lot more and i really do understand his frustration coming from a genuine place. i also recognize that it probably isn't AI and that there's bias in there.

Farkran/Nacho doesn't really seem as likely as it did to me last night.

definitely do get the sense of going in circles, though.

[Chara]

the takeaway is it's very probably Bingle/Farkran and i

know

i'm overthinking things on some level and so i don't need to worry about whether i'm doing it.

[Chara]

Farkran: i feel like you talked about this but i can't find it in your ISO, is English not your first language or am i thinking of someone else? sorry for the weird question.

[Chara]

it's nice in theory to say "if Farkran flips town, then Psyche should shoot in Bingle/Nacho, preferably Bingle"

Wait, what...? Like, seriously, what? How does my townflip aggravate Bingle's position and make Nacho look better?

i meant the reverse. if you flip town then i'd prefer a Nacho shot.

[Chara]

VOTE: Farkran
i'm too sick to agonize about this for another day. i have the best feeling about Farkran being scum here.
am willing to switch to Bingle if i have to. i probably will if Amrun asks because this is the second time i've avoided her preferred lynch in favour of mine and i feel kind of shitty about that.

[Chara]

bah.
HURT: Farkran

[Chara]

Nacho was a counterwagon and pushed by Farkran early yesterday, which gives him good towncred. Chara continues to be a townread, and it didn't need to vote Farkran there and give town!Amrun the opportunity to hammer him there. It could've easily waited it out and let Amrun hammer Nacho.

couldn't Amrun have avoided a Farkran lynch the same way? i said i was willing to move to Bingle but she chose to hammer.

[Chara]

Chara's always been a stronger townread than you.

this is news to me. when i pressed you yesterday you didn't indicate this.

[Chara]

scum Amrun means she decided to give in and vote her partner, when she could have stayed on Bingle. and it's fair to say Nacho would have hammered it. it's possible she decided to cut her losses, but in terms of having an agenda, i also liked Bingle's posting yesterday and i don't think it's strange Amrun was wavering on it with how they were interacting.

i do find it interesting that Nacho encouraged me to lynch in him/Bingle/Farkran and to trust my Amrun TR yesterday, and when i asked about his confidence in me and Amrun he didn't differentiate between us. but today Amrun isn't as good of a townread, and her wavering on Bingle is scummy.

[Chara]

Like there's too much overthinking going on at this point in time. You trust your townread on Amrun. There's not a good reason for you to distrust a townread you've had on Amrun all game.

From there, Farkran is still peddling the same line of garbage that he's been peddling the entire game. There is a clear scum agenda to peddling this particular line of garbage if he is scum.
Either he is an insane off-the-wall player ("scum wouldn't spare town D2, that's wild!!! is still a central point of the worldview he's held all day), or he's scum. His other completed towngames show a reasonable and thoughtful and very good player - a player who hasn't been present in this game with us.

Meanwhile, in your pool of three people, two people are mutually townreading each other and have person #3 at the bottom. The solution of "oh they're defending each other because giving town the catharsis of a scum flip here if they don't have to is insanely dumb" seems obvious to me - do you really disagree?

the problem i have with it is mainly that Amrun and i are i believe more emotional players in a very general sense, while Farkran and Bingle are the logical type.

I don't believe this generalization is worth much at all. The reason why I feel an emotional connection with the two of you is deeper than "these are emotional players versus the logical players in the corner", this is not my first rodeo. You feel similarly wrt Amrun, she feels the same wrt you - me weaving lies to put words to the emotion that we both feel isn't particularly useful at this point.

I have thoughts and we will go into them, trust. But I’d like nacho to answer me first.

Chara's always been a stronger townread than you.

I don't like your sudden almost change of heart on Bingle yesterday when you were scumreading him the whole game, felt fake. I didn't like your "spicy take - let's lynch Nacho" for obvious reasons.

If Farkran maintained the same scum habits from when he was a wee newbie (aka first newbie game) then he treated you like how he detailed he treated his scum partners (to a T).

the fact he's using my Amrun TR to push a lynch on his partner hurts this thought a bit, but that he goes from that to this case today based on Amrun's actions yesterday does feel prepared.

why was i a stronger townread, and when did you realize you didn't like these things from Amrun?

[Chara]

would appreciate input from Hectic and Suji on that. i'm usually inclined to trust my hard townreads more than my gameplay logic, though i'm trying to improve on the latter. i understand Suji holding off for the beginning though.

if Amrun was bussing, she didn't commit to it and basically gave up in a bid for towncred, and presumably due to confidence i would continue to TR her. she had mislynch opportunities on both Nacho and Bingle that would have made sense.

if Nacho was bussing he and Farkran committed hard to it, which is a big gamble, especially given the likelihood of one of them being lynched day 3.

and i TR Hectic as well. and again, Farkran tried to get him lynched and continue to question TRs on him all game. Amrun makes the most sense in a straightforward way from that so i understand the read there. also i could be wrong in TRing her.

also, if Hectic was scum, i don't think Farkran fights against further sparing so hard.

[Chara]

Amrun: it made sense to me at the time for some reason, but i don't think i understand what you mean by giving you that opening on Bingle. why wouldn't scum Chara have done that? (referring to 2274)

[Chara]

If your primary way to understand my play in endgame is suddenly digging through progressions post-Chemist lynch then you will end up voting me 100% of the time and might as well save yourself the anguish now and vote for me. I've spent my time studying the game and spending actual time thinking about things - my play from here on out is more of a "heart of the cards" type scenario.

i like to think i'm capable of figuring out if you're town here or not, so give me a little credit before you say i need to vote you right now if i'm even considering it.

the games still going on, the fact that i have reasons for everyone to be town means one of those is wrong, i know that well enough.
i asked when you started to feel suspicious about Amrun because it seemed like you had the case ready to go.
you didn't expect the game to continue, so i'd want to know when in between Bingle's flip and now you realized that your townread on me was better or that you didn't like Amrun's positioning yesterday or today.

[Chara]

for the record, i am all about intuitive play and tonereading, and i am definitely planning on calling upon the heart of the cards the next time i need to.

[Chara]

Why would you have? It would have looked quite bad for you I think, once Bingle flipped town?

Idk thinking about it more maybe that’s not the most sane reasoning actually. Bleh. Then you’re the one who pointed it out.

I still think you’re town anyway.

to be fair, i didn't actually notice until Nacho brought it up.

[Chara]

Although, for your hot "post game Get to Know a Nacho" tip, if I were scum here, there's no way I spend all that time reading Farkran's posts and digging through his other games and reaching a "town with some reservations that I ultimately ignore" and then start mutual bussing two days later as opposed to a "FARKRAN IS TOWN" or "FARKRAN IS SCUM" declaration from then on. My justification of all that time would be using it to push an agenda which I straight up didn't, but as town, sometimes you just waste a bunch of time. Sometimes you end up in the end game with some hideous looking progressions that don't really make sense to anyone but yourself (and not really even to yourself), but, despite playing a game that is incredibly ugly, still being town in the end.

can't you play an ugly scumgame too? i feel like you're making the point that scum Nacho is better than this, while town Nacho was just wasting time with something that ended up being incorrect.

that's referring to your point by the way, i don't think your play has been "ugly" in any sense, and i don't think your progression here can't have happened as town, though you seem to think it was one you can't adequately explain.

[Chara]

if Amrun's scum i'm really impressed with how natural her reactions are, and have been throughout.
she does really strongly TR me now where before she was underlining it with paranoia, but it doesn't feel shoehorned in.

[Chara]

i just don't scumread her. i'm not sure i'm capable of shifting a lynch onto Nacho or if i even should, though. i keep thinking Amrun makes the most logical sense as Farkran's partner and so it shouldn't be her by virtue of... something, it should be Nacho and he's succeeded on a gambit. and if Amrun's lynched and she's scum we win, and if she flips town i get to be right, but either way it's not my fault, because if she's scum and i successfully prevent her lynch then that's the worst.

[Chara]

Sujimichi: i did read your case, that wasn't me just ignoring it.

[Chara]

if Hectic really trusts my judgement, maybe. in terms of ability to do it i probably could. i know i shouldn't be making decisions based on being afraid of taking responsibility.

[Chara]

how sure are you it's Nacho and not Hectic?

[Chara]

i don't have a rebuttal to Suji's case, really. the main part of it, i do agree i don't think you had a serious belief in someone outside of Farkran/Bingle/Nacho being scum, and i don't think you need to hold off on saying so strategically.

[Chara]

i guess i do have a rebuttal? i think Farkran's play was really out there, i think his partner was definitely aware of it, and i think if you were scum with him you would have done more to distance. i think Nacho put a lot of effort into doing exactly that. there's Hectic again but like. i TR Hectic, it's been a while since he was spared but i still like my reasons for it, and i don't TR Nacho.

[Chara]

i apologize for thinking you were set, in that case.

what did you think of my interactions with Nacho and his replies?

[Chara]

if Hectic really trusts my judgement, maybe. in terms of ability to do it i probably could. i know i shouldn't be making decisions based on being afraid of taking responsibility.

i'd be surprised if you were a loser
plus i don't see Farkran waving around his anti-SPARE propaganda like that and loserreading you while you had a good chance of being one of the SPAREs at some point

that said, what do you mean "trust my judgement?"
trust that you're town?
or trust lynching Nacho over Amrun today?

i meant trusting my judgement on lynching Nacho, yes. trusting i

am

town is less important given there's only one scum left, though it probably helps.

though it's irrelevant now.

[Chara]

given Hectic (and Suji, though he's conftown anyways) are both confident i'm town i'm a little miffed they weren't willing to wait a day for me to respond to anything.

[Chara]

i'm here, mafia just isn't a priority for me today.

but happy birthday.

pedit: and hello Hectic.

[Chara]

i think Nacho's scum. but i'm also here thinking, is this

really

how he goes about it? it's a little demotivating but also confusing. kind of just don't want to deal with this right now but i also don't want to deal with actual life problems.

[Chara]

Hectic: what about you?

[Chara]

that post sounds a lot more like a downer in hindsight. appreciate the apology but it isn't necessary.

[Chara]

HURT: Nacho

i'm not going to do any more thinking about it than i have already.

[Chara]

i'm weak to AtE and i know that, but after going over his posting again and again it still feels as performatively town as it did yesterday. i'm dissatisfied with how we got here and i don't like being at the end having to make a decision, but you still have to, LyLo isn't exactly a time you can just sit out of the game.
i don't think not posting is disrespectful, though. or at least i don't like talking about game actions with that sort of language, and i don't like the suggestion to vote Hectic on what's basically policy, or if not policy a moral stance.

[Chara]

Nacho makes more sense as a Farkran partner too, i knew that going in to today, but then i started thinking Nacho must be town because of his avoidance of being the reason town loses, which i can empathize with and felt very real, and Hectic seemed comparatively unworried.

but that's one interaction i'm overweighing against the rest of the game.

[Chara]

some preliminary questions based on this day phase alone:

Chara, why did you place your vote on Nacho after Nacho had expressed near-intent to vote me? if Nacho placed his vote on me, it would make you the decider and mean a world where you are misFOUGHT never happens, so overall should increase the odds of victory

Nacho, why do you think scum!Chara votes you there after you placed near-intent? Any ideas?

i was avoiding the thread when i was pretty sure i wouldn't change my mind, and i wanted to stop doing it. agonizing over possibly being wrong isn't going to get anything done, and i wasn't enjoying the waiting, either.

[Chara]

Nacho makes more sense as a Farkran partner too

Why do I make sense as a Farkran partner?

you don't make sense, and i think that was the point of the risky day 3 bus Farkran took and then the day 4 bus. at a few points i discounted you two as a team entirely and i think that was the idea. Farkran wasn't being listened to all game so pushing you (using the same logic that no one was really on board with, Hectic scum) was an action he could feasibly take. and it was a strong one.

Farkran/Hectic means Farkran went after his partner, but with more potential for being listened to at the time, and then continued to do so after he was spared when the best course of action would have been to avoid Farkran's lynch.

[Chara]

Why do you think Chara as town makes the decision when it did? I'd imagine that it would want to wait a bit longer after missing the day 2 days ago then getting cut off yesterday before it could expand on some thoughts that it had - don't you?

why would i want to wait longer than i already had? at that point it was just avoiding committing to the decision i already had made.
i did get thrown off but i'm glad i did stick to that.

[Chara]

that might take more sorting through than i currently have the time for. off the top of my head i don't know if there's a neat "singularly scummy thing" Nacho has done during a particular phase. and he's been mostly a PoE read.

[Chara]

i know i didn't like him on day 5. there was the underlying self-awareness to his posting this game that i didn't like then, that shows he knows what he's doing and how it comes across. and i feel like the disparaging remarks about his own play have been genuine to some degree, because i'm sure he didn't start this game wanting to be absent because of irl or have to bus. again this isn't meant to be insulting, i really don't think he played badly, but i do think he's aware of his progressions not being great and so can spin that as inconsistent town rather than scum.

he called Amrun out for being suspicious of you (Hectic) saying she was setting up mislynches, and did the opposite himself (what he perceives as how town would act) by saying that it had to be Amrun or the game was lost. so coming into today he has to act like defeated town, but he avoided giving an opinion on either of us and wanted to step back and have someone else vote first.

the inability to explain how his reads changed is i think the biggest indicator. he was never able to adequately explain why Amrun and i were townreads, and his reasoning for voting Farkran over Bingle/Amrun/Chara (by poeing out teams) was weak, probably because the plan was to bus and use that for the win. when Amrun became the next one to lynch she suddenly wasn't a townread, and i was the better one, and when i pressed him on that he said he didn't realize until looking in hindsight that i always had been. i think it's perfectly possible to explain emotional reads. the only townread he really went all in on or went through a process for was Farkran, and Hectic he explained as well early game if my memory's right.

[Chara]

Hectic: don't remember specifics, but i wasn't suspicious of you there because it seemed like you were working through the read in general, and i was satisfied with the TR.

Nacho: i believe i spent a good portion of the game talking about my Amrun read, but especially on day 5. as for my read on you, you were a townread from your start but that faded and for most of the game i had you in leftovers.

[Chara]

I'll get you your "scummiest thing by Chara daily" when I'm back and reading the Farkran-Chara ISO, but the biggest red flag that I see with the benefit of hindsight bias is the passivity. While we were ripping each other apart yesterday, Chara was more hanging back instead of actually engaging. When we first transitioned to lynching instead of sparing, Chara was protesting, but it wasn't protesting in a significant way, just sort of a quiet voice in back that was still putting down kill votes it didn't particularly care for.

I also think the transition into today is strange; Chara hasn't really gotten the opportunity to post or engage because of real life stuff but it frames the decision coming into today as one that was made the second it came in the thread - I think that Chara is a paranoid person like you and I and I don't think that it would be comfortable making the decision without addressing the possibility of being wrong more than it has so far.

addressing the possibility of being wrong leads to a paranoia spiral for me more often than not. deciding to throw everything away late game has affected my play adversely previously, and i had already made the decision going in to this day that i would be voting you; it was only your approach to the day that made me waver and want to double check, which i did do.

[Chara]

alright.
i see the arguments for lynching today. i'm assuming they're sound, mechanics Chara is taking a nap at the moment.

pedit: why do we lynch me on a Nacho townflip?
i'd be happy to spare Replica if that's on the table.

why did you give up on taking the 4 SPARE route here?
did you think the people proposing lynching as optimal were town?
Farkran was one of them

i forget who else was, but i do know it was more than Farkran and Amrun (the latter of whom i did townread). i didn't give up, i still wanted a spare, but i was open to lynching if there was a player i was alright lynching, which there was, though it was wrong.

[Chara]

The same person who was attacking Farkran for the entirety of yesterday now suddenly will only vote him if it's "literally the only option". The same person who had Farkran as their only actual scumread and was waffling on Chemist the day before - the same person who very much wants to spare and not kill. This makes absolutely no sense from town!Chara's perspective - either Chara is willing to compromise with a HURT in which case it votes its strongest scumread she was attacking for the entire day before or it doesn't compromise and let's the wagon go through on either one of the Chemist/Farkran duo that it called "extremely obvious". But instead, it was the only that forced Amrun to move over off scum and onto town in order to save scum the game.

This is the smoking gun - this is the only post of anyone's that you should be reading today.

Farkran wasn't my strongest scumread at the time, a fact that's very obvious by the post you quoted. and portraying it as though i "suddenly" changed my mind as if i didn't spend a lot of time trying to come at the read from different angles, as well as having a really difficult time with my read on Farkran as a whole, is ignoring the actual circumstances in favour of making it seem like my progression was sudden or doesn't make sense. Chemist was my strongest scumread at the time, that's why that's where i put my hurt vote. my preference was sparing Replica and it always had been. i voted Chemist because i wanted a hurt vote down given deadline was coming up, and because it a hurt

did

go through i wanted it to be Chemist and not Fark, who i thought could be town for reasons i'm pretty sure i also explained, if not in that post then around the time.

[Chara]

Chara doesn't have that bite when interacting with any other of its scumreads this game; fuck, I'm supposedly confirmed as scum to Chara here but it never quite addresses me with this confidence. I think that when Farkran replaced in, Chara saw its partner attacking the strongest town player in the game and going off the rails a bit so responded with some confirmation bias distancing. I don't think it's natural for a townie to be super confident about only scumread they had that was correct and then not really confident about any other push ever; town put themselves out there and get egg on their faces because they are so horribly and spectacularly wrong.

there's a pretty major difference between attacking someone you're pushing, who you're frustrated with, and attacking someone in lylo when you already know they're scum and so you don't need to worry about reading them anymore. and i know you know this.

it's also not at all accurate to say i

was

confident about Farkran scum, because i wasn't, i still wanted to spare, the read bothered me to the point i literally had to step away from even thinking about Farkran in order to do anything meaningful with the rest of the game. and i was confident in Amrun town, i was even confident in her being town day 4, but i was scared of being wrong, just as i was scared of being wrong on you.

[Chara]

And I'm so glad I didn't get quickhammered in a pedit right there because that was a legitimate fear of mine for a second. But, I'm not doing the Day 4/Day 5 thing unless you really need it because ^that^ is the most important piece. If scum lost the game immediately by a Nacho or Fakran lynch then there's no fucking way that Farkran tunnels me the entire day and I disappear the entire day only to spend the entirety of the next day calling him town town town before actually lynching him Day 5 or whenever the hell that was when we lynched him - the risk/reward for towncred just straight up isn't worth it. Chara having an unexplained change of heart on Day 3 and just coincidentally being the most pivotal vote to save their chances of winning is something that just doesn't happen out of coincidence.

your disappearing wasn't related to the game, you said that yourself, so you can't pretend that you would have somehow been more present had you been scum. pretty sure you were trying to deescalate you vs. Farkran so that you

wouldn't

have to bus, but then decided it was your best chance of victory. i don't think you played a clean game here, obviously, but your arguments keep boiling down to how as scum you would have constructed a better game, while also arguing that i as scum made all of these 'unexplained' decisions.

you still haven't explained why you decided to focus on Farkran when you did, for as

long

as you did, even with players like Replica asking you repeatedly to do something else besides towncase or case Farkran, and the excuse that "town does stupid things" sometimes really doesn't cut it. scum fucks up too. i'm sympathetic to RL giving you problems and i really don't think it's relevant to the game, but it doesn't translate to you being town because your scumgame should have been better than this.
and i do think scum you can come up with good reasons to towncase towny players, you just didn't this time. not an insult.

[Chara]

Chara unvotes Farkran eventually because it wants to focus on sparing you (fine, I understand), but there's never a reason for Chara to back down from the Farkran scumread.

this isn't the only instance, but using language like "suddenly, Chara does this" as though there's zero explanation anywhere, or denying that reasons exist outright, just shows you're constructing the best narrative to fit. there's literally the reason i was uncomfortable lynching Farkran in the gotcha post you quoted, and that's not the only time i talked about it.

[Chara]

the only hurt vote i

wanted

to make. i wanted to spare Replica and i would have compromised to avoid NL.

[Chara]

HOW_FARKRAN_WENT_FROM_YOUR_TOP_SCUMREAD_TO_NOT_BEING_A_FIGHT_CONSIDERATION. SUMMARISE_WHAT_HE_DID_THAT_MADE_YOU_RECONSIDER_IN_THAT_TIME_FRAME. please.

Is it just him doubling down on me being scum that you didn't see scum doing? Anything else?

it's about a 1000 post timeframe so i really don't think i can summarize it.

basically i was really confident in scum Farkran, i didn't like anything he was doing, i hated both his takes and his attitude, and i was getting really frustrated about it. i started thinking about my experiences when going hard against scum like that, and in my experience i usually don't have so many problems even interacting with actual scum. the total lack of common ground or understanding between us reminded me of the times i've clashed with town and just not been able to find any sort of compromise, to the point i had to give up or just lynch that player while thinking they were town. Farkran's play was so off the wall i was having a hardtime imagining it as a scum strategy, and so it was getting hard to push that or want to vote it when i couldn't rationalize it from a scum perspective besides scum who wanted to cause problems.

[Chara]

the only hurt vote i

wanted

to make. i wanted to spare Replica and i would have compromised to avoid NL.

The only hurt vote you would make. But that doesn't make sense coming from the Chara who was posting Day 2 - how did your Chemist scumread become so much stronger than your Farkran one? Yeah, you were unsure on Farkran but you were also unsure on Chemist so ??????

i thought he made more sense as scum, yes it was obviously wrong, i lynched town and didn't lynch scum, you're right.
Chemist didn't look like he was making any genuine reads, i was more sure when his reads continued to look that way, and i was unsure previously because his tone was pretty towny. and i explained where i fucked up with Farkran and not wanting to be wrong after trying to engage so much.

[Chara]

if Farkran and i were a team, it would have been autoloss. a scum lynch on day 3 was autowin.

so Nacho's saying i didn't lynch Farkran because i had to. which is a fair argument i don't really have a way to rebuttal. it's true i didn't hit scum when it would have been a win. i thought Chemist had the best chance of being that scum given everything which is why i didn't want to hurt anywhere else if i did have to, but that ended up being the wrong choice.
which i don't regret so much until now if it means i get MLed here into a loss for it.

[Chara]

Overall, I'm still likely to hammer Nacho though after rereading through each of their ISOs.

That is ridiculous.

Do you really believe that Chara, as town, spent an entire game day attacking Farkran before deciding that it would hurt Chemist and ONLY Chemist despite the two scumreads being extraordinarily close to each other and this happening on the one day that scum needed to lynch town or they would instantly lose?

Or, that on that same day where scum needed to lynch town or they lost that Farkran, the active scumpartner, bussed Nacho, the inactive scum partner until that wagon didn't gain any traction and then voted himself?

Because if you do then you don't understand how pivotal that moment was and you should be asking more questions about it. That is the smoking gun. Guns don't get smokier than that gun is.

Chara, please get in here and change my mind on this. Nacho is very convincing.

i don't have anything good to say, i know it looks terrible. i wanted to spare but if we did have to lynch, i wanted to lynch the scum for the win. i wasn't happy with any of the options really but Chemist seemed the choice that made the most sense with the players i thought scum was in, while with Farkran i kept coming up with reasons for him to be town. Farkran and Nacho took some really weird actions this game and i really doubt all of them were just done for towncred, i'm sure they all made sense at the time, such as Farkran bussing Nacho when they were both in a bad position on day 3, because it's possible that seemed like the only option.

Nacho's focusing on the fact i would

only

vote Chemist, which i did say, but it was because i wanted to vote Replica, and if i had to i made the only hurt vote i was okay with if sparing wasn't happening. i really didn't expect that there wouldn't be further discussion on the matter or realize that i had locked down other options entirely.

[Chara]

posting towards, about, or to a scumpartner isn't a waste, it's called distancing, and putting work in where scum normally wouldn't need to is a valid tactic and once scum is capable of pulling off.

your progressions not making sense doesn't make you scum, that's true. your progressions not making sense to

you

is a bit more of a problem. an awareness that you aren't easily trackable can be mitigated by explaining yourself. you've listed lots of things you did in interacting with Farkran and you have a great memory of them, but why did you do it?

and Chara saving the game for scum means i'm scum MVP i guess, if that means a loss here. i didn't stick to my instincts where it mattered. i'm at least happy i didn't end up lynching Hectic because i think that would have felt worse.

pedit: one single mistake isn't the big picture. town fucks up. that's been your mantra this whole game. i really fucked up, once.

[Chara]

And yes I'm hammering the point again and again and in a fashion that's almost comical but you don't find smoking guns like this in mafia EVER - the fact where Chara has reached a point where it's shrugging and going "yeah no nothing to say to that" should be a neon sign pointing out that I'm not bullshitting you here. Chara is scum who voted Chemist and said it wouldn't hurt anyone but Chemist in order to save Farkran so they wouldn't instantly lose the game. I make no sense as a Farkran scumpartner because it means on a day when a scum lynch = scum loss, scum did nothing but vote for scum the whole day. That doesn't happen. The narrative that says that I am scum and Chara is town makes absolutely no sense.

well what do i say? we

would

have won if i'd voted Farkran there instead of Chemist, am i supposed to deny that this situation is my fault when it is? i even nearly pushed Amrun for voting Chemist there day 5 because i thought it was a major indicator she was scum after all, before rereading and realizing i'm the entire reason she did.

[Chara]

that feeling's only there because i'm town. i can't pull this off this consistently or this long as scum. your play this game has been messy and Farkran's has been off the wall, and between both of those and the way the game played you've had to take risks i'm sure you wouldn't have if you'd had control of the game, and they weren't optimal. so i don't have any way to argue that everything you did you did with a blatantly scum agenda, because you didn't. but neither did i, besides one instance where i was wrong on a vote.

[Chara]

You've been unable to point to anything that I've done to carrying a scum agenda because the scum agenda doesn't exist. Saying that you can't fool someone for an entire game is just wrong??? Everyone has good scum games. Everyone has bad scum games. Everyone has good town games. Everyone has bad town games.

except for you, Nacho the scum god, who can't be scum because he's been playing for ten years and would be better than this?

[Chara]

in an ideal world i'm sure you would. but you're also good enough to talk your way out of it even without that. i really didn't think the problem would be anything but making sure i didn't accidentally vote the town out of the two of you, because i was confident in my ability to avoid being mislynched if Hectic took the time to go through the game, which he did.
so at this point i just have to rely on that.

[Chara]

[Chara]

I made all the postgame comments in the dead and scum pt, but once again congratulations to everyone, this town has been a thorn in our side every single day. I was afraid we would lose more than once. Much more than once.

i was afraid we would lose every time i opened my mouth. at some point i started avoiding the site for long stretches of time to get some rest from all of the anxiety. not my proudest moment. pretty much every burst of posting by me, you can imagine took about an hour of prep time to work up the nerve to start.

i really thought we were done at the end. Nacho's brilliantly charismatic and i can see why he has the reputation he does.

[Chara]

you played well yourself, Hectic. i really enjoyed playing off you before you were spared.

[Chara]

this would have been a loss for us without Fark. the only reason i was able to churn out the posts and keep the interactions up was because of him and the sheer ridiculous amount of things he was pushing at 110% effort in the thread.

and thanks Amrun. i really had fun playing with you. hope we're on the same team next time.