Mini Normal 2141: The World of Tomorrow [Game over!]

[Blair]

Basically I was thinking "Quick may be setting himself up for a long bus, so whenever we do get around to flipping NPOM he can say 'I was right, my system has been saying NPOM is scum since Day!'"

This should read: "Since Day 1!"

[Blair]

Here's my timeline, I reread the thread and posted my thoughts on the game as a whole at that moment, voicing my suspicion of VP among other things. In that time, there were almost 10 new posts made, including both votes on VP. Since I wanted to get my post out there before even more happened, and I hadn't payed a ton of attention to a specific number of votes in the meantime, I wanted to go back and double check that I wasn't putting you at L-1 or anything.

When I went back and read, I realized that I had read a vote on you and someone else quoting a vote on you as 2 votes

, hence why I was saying that I was the 2nd vote. But now that I'm rereading again today, I realize I was right the first time and didn't see votato's vote in double checking

That was it. (bolded for emphasis)

[Blair]

I can only imagine one (not very persuasive) possible explanation if he really was confused, and I will not state it until I've heard an excuse of his own machinations.

This is where I foreshadowed it, but did not disclose it (because I didn't want to give him an answer to just copy).

[Blair]

Blair's attempt at math for her Gamma vote doesn't even add up. She says it is possible 1 out of 4 people off the wagon is likely scum -- giving us a 25% chance from that pool. HOWEVER, if you were to assume it was a three scum game (which is fairly standard for this size setup unless meta around her has changed), that would mean you could have up to a 2 out of 7 chance of hitting scum on the wagon --- or roughly 28%. Any way you slice this, it doesn't feel statistically significant to me unless you assume only two scum in the game.

Aren't you making a weird sort of logical leap here in assuming if there are three scum that there will be exactly one off wagon and exactly two on-wagon?

[Blair]

(If you aren't assuming that, then you are assuming that I was assuming that - and that my math was wrong because of my bad assumption. That doesn't make sense, though, because I definitely did not say there would be "one" scum off-wagon, I just said I didn't believe they would all be on the wagon together)

[Blair]

HOWEVER, if you were to assume it was a three scum game (which is fairly standard for this size setup unless meta around her has changed), that would mean you could have up to a 2 out of 7 chance of hitting scum on the wagon --- or roughly 28%. Any way you slice this, it doesn't feel statistically significant to me unless you assume only two scum in the game.

I would contend your math is askew, not mine.

Starting from the base assumption of this discussion (not all scum are on the wagon), and the reasonable inverse (not all scum are off the wagon) we are left with at least one scum in seven and at least one scum in four. Then, if there is a third scum, the third scum has a 2/3 chance of being on the wagon, or a 1/3 chance of being off.

Doesn't that still add up to "We have better odds off the wagon than on it"?

[Blair]

you said he's still lying and that you'd be OK with lynching him. I don't believe you ever said yesterday that you believed his reason given. Am I missing something?

You're right, I never said I believed him yesterday.

I waffled back and forth a bit on whether or not I bought his excuse. I'm still waffling on it. It's not a verifiable thing. I was okay with testing it on Day 1, because zero information Day 1 lynches are historically risky, today I think we can do better though.

[Blair]

(Final note on the math: In case anyone is confused, the short version is that the BEST case scenario on-wagon is 28% and the WORST case on-wagon is 14%. The WORST case scenario off-wagon is 25% while the BEST case is 50%. So the best case scenario on-wagon is only 3% better than the worst case scenario off-wagon)

[Blair]

If that was your point, then why didn't you say that instead of saying we were 3% more likely to hit scum on the wagon?

A statement that can only be true if you know more than me?

[Blair]

So by that, shouldn't the 1/3 be priority????

I have no idea what this means.

Is it possible you don't understand the math? Not trying to be condescending, it can legitimately be confusing.

The 1/3 is a 1/3 chance that there are two scum among four. The 2/3 is a 2/3 chance that there are two scum among seven.

[Blair]

No, math favors hunting off-wagon if there are two scum or if there are three - as long as you assume not all scum wagon'd together on the mislynch. I think that's a reasonable assumption.

I used basic math to narrow down my hunting grounds to my best odds (either 25% or 50%, depending on variables VP and I just discussed).

Those percentages are worst-case scenarios assuming we lynch randomly, however, which we are not going to do. Here's why I chose Gamma:

Mafia is a game of uninformed majority vs informed minority.

The scum know who is town and who is not.

Am I suggesting we lynch everyone who has accurate reads? No! Sometimes our reads are accurate because our reasons are good.

Scum will know who the townies are, but they can't just SAY "I'm scum so I know NPOM is town." So they have to make up reasons.

Gamma is scum because he knew NPOM was town (he was right!), but his reason for believing this was wrong (NPOM refuted it himself, and Gamma has since admitted it was wrong).

Gamma is scum because Gamma distanced himself from the mislynch by giving reads that were

right for the wrong reasons.

[Blair]

*sigh*

OK, Votato. Go ahead. Show us all where I said I was townreading NPOM.

[Blair]

How on earth do you read that and conclude I expected NPOM to flip town?

You don't. You're being disingenuous.

And the "info" I gained from it was a townread on Quick, which I have "used today" by not trying to lynch him.

[Blair]

Side Note: I am getting an extraordinary amount of pushback on a case on someone with about 20~ posts. Not everyone townreading Gamma this firmly right now will flip town. Count on it.

[Blair]

Gamma is scummy because he distanced himself from the mislynch by stating an accurate townread on the lynchee based on logic so flawed that the lynchee rejected it and Gamma has since even been forced to admit it was flawed.

i.e. Gamma had some other reason for townreading NPOM.

R2R is less scummy because the case on R2R appears to be "He blatantly lied about checking the vote count, for no discernible reason, when he could have just kept his yap shut." I don't find that very persuasive.

[Blair]

Votato is pushing a policy lynch on me while poorly disguising it as a scum-case predicated on lies (I was never townreading NPOM).

Discuss.

[Blair]

VP Baltar, you never gave your final thoughts on my Gamma case, after we ironed out all the details.

Thoughts?

[Blair]

VP Baltar, you never gave your final thoughts on my Gamma case, after we ironed out all the details.

Thoughts?

[Blair]

I would like Blair to unpack how they know there are only 2 Scum in this game.

You are going to have a very, VERY difficult time substantiating the false premise behind that question.

[Blair]

Is there reasoning beyond that I've missed?

I'm trying to avoid hiring a skywriter here.

Yeah, that's the basic premise.

[Blair]

you said he's still lying and that you'd be OK with lynching him. I don't believe you ever said yesterday that you believed his reason given. Am I missing something?

You're right, I never said I believed him yesterday.

I waffled back and forth a bit on whether or not I bought his excuse. I'm still waffling on it. It's not a verifiable thing. I was okay with testing it on Day 1, because zero information Day 1 lynches are historically risky, today I think we can do better though.

I'm not sure why Quick is pretending this doesn't exist.

When I believed R2R was lying, I was open to lynching him.

Now I am not sure if R2R was lying and would rather lynch Gamma.

In other news: Votato is openly manipulating Quick, and Quick usually notices things like that but hasn't pointed if out in this case.

[Blair]

You're missing the forest for the trees.

[Blair]

Blair, at what point did you reconsider your view of r2r's comment I made my original case on? Also, what do you think of his votes and contribution to this game?

The beginning of Day 2 when I discovered it was more important to sort Gamma today.

You're missing the forest for the trees.

Devils in the details, Blair.

Why is Gamma a better lynch than R2R when R2R was the off wagon?

I don't get this. Are you suggesting that there is something inherently optimal about lynching the runner-up after a mislynch?

[Blair]

I'm not voting for Gamma to sort R2R.

I'm voting for Gamma to sort Gamma.

Your belief that "second tier wagons are often scum" is unsubstantiated.

[Blair]

I am aware that people believe it.

I am not aware of evidence of statistical significance.

[Blair]

Oh look, that is exactly what I said:

Your belief that "second tier wagons are often scum" is unsubstantiated.

[Blair]

Maybe you thought "unsubstantiated" meant "unpopular"?

But I doubt it.

[Blair]

Greetings, hellbooks.

What manner of catch up can we expect from you? Are you a full-reader, a skimmer, or a highlighter (focuses on specific parts other players identify as relevant)?

[Blair]

I'm not voting for Gamma to sort R2R.

I'm voting for Gamma to sort Gamma.

Your belief that "second tier wagons are often scum" is unsubstantiated.

what do we gain from sorting gamma via lynch? it seems that thats a pretty bad information lynch. flipping r2r gives us a lot of information about the NPOM wagon. Flipping you gives us a lot of information too.

Yeah, lynching me today would mean lynching Gamma tomorrow.

So let's skip that formality.

[Blair]

That is one of the most anti-town posts in this game.

[Blair]

I stand corrected.

[Blair]

Let it be known that Quick sniffed out a PR and then spent the next 150 posts teasing a claim out of them.

I have a positive investigation on Gammagooey.

It is not a Town/Mafia result, but it is something usually exclusive to Mafia.

I need Gamma to claim so I can check their claim against my result - which I will happily share, but only after Gamma claims (if they know my result, they will know exactly what role to claim).

[Blair]

Thank goodness.

We all live for your approval.

[Blair]

If Gamma is scum, it may be worth hunting between R2R and Dunn tomorrow, as scum may have picked up the PR tells and slid on the wagon early.

[Blair]

The process is:

L-1

Gamma Claims

Blair Claims

If Gamma's claim doesn't fit Blair's investigation: Lynch Gamma

I'm sorry this is so hard for you to follow that you feel the need to keep asking vague, pointless questions.

[Blair]

That works, too.

[Blair]

Gamma needs to claim his role.

Then I will claim what I learned about his role from my Night 1 investigation.

Then we will discuss if Gamma needs to be lynched. If Gamma is town, his claim will match my investigation. If Gamma is scum, he will have to fake claim based on whatever his best guess is as to my investigation. If we're lucky, he guesses wrong and becomes conf-scum.

[Blair]

I targeted Gamma Night 1 because I was already developing suspicions on his slot (I talked about Gamma more than anything else toward the end of Day 1), and Gamma was relatively inactive to the point where 1) I worried I would never get a firm read on him, and 2) I anticipated he was unlikely to be nightkilled.

Amassing information on players who are likely to live a for long time increases the likelihood that we reach endgame with enough information on the remaining players to solve.

[Blair]

EBWOP: *for a

[Blair]

Like I said, you have it backwards. We don't lynch Gamma to sort R2R, we lynch R2R to sort the NPOM wagon. Else, you are assuming R2R is Town here.

Why is Quick pretending he thinks I'm pushing Gamma "to sort R2R" in post 1136 if he has known I was claiming an investigation since post 1000?

That is one of the most anti-town posts in this game.

Scum already know if you are Cop. This has been apparent since your push on gamma at like post 1000 or so.

Which part do you disagree with?

And what agenda do you believe I have?

(Hint: My agenda is to lynch Gamma)

Post 1000 btw and I totally guessed there.

[Blair]

For someone who usually lives up to his name, Quick is taking a longer than usual amount of time to respond to a direct question here.

Maybe I finally stumped him.

[Blair]

Dunn, I will come back to that after Gamma's claim.

The reason why will become clear.

[Blair]

After we sort Gamma we get to debate whether Quick was lying as town or lying as scum. Yay.

[Blair]

I am a Traffic Analyst. I investigated Gamma Night 1 and discovered he can talk outside of the game thread.

I breadcrumbed my result in my very first post this phase:

1. Upon analysis, Gamma can talk more. Need to resolve this slot.

Gamma is claiming vigilante because it is a safe guess after NPOM's flip, and because I dropped a red herring for gunsmith here:

Gun to my head

, if I had to solve right now it would be:

Gamma

+

Puppy

/Midway +

Mavs

/Atarashi/Quick

Gamma fell for my red herring. Lynch this.

[Blair]

You had a chance there to claim you were neighborized or something.

You didn't. Nobody let him get away with adding tacking something like that on later.

[Blair]

This would be a terrible, right-out-the-gate-since-my-first-post-of-the-phase gambit if I were lying. Trading 1:1 is a bad deal for scum.

So I'm sure Quick will show up soon and say that's what I'm doing.

[Blair]

maybe you're a mafia gunsmith or something

I like you. I hope we can play another game together sometime.

[Blair]

I believe Gamma is at L-2, by the way. I don't recall anyone pointing that out.

[Blair]

Sorry to hear that, Quick.

To catch you up: We caught scum.

[Blair]

Someone tell me if traffic analyst is a standard kind of role? I have not played in years and do not know what is considered a "normal" role.

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Normal_Game

[Blair]

a very small part of me is tempted to say that we should not lynch blair or gammagooey and just let gamma live until n3 so he can shoot blair if he can

but, meh, can't outsmart the counter claims i think

This would be a fun gambit if Gamma had claimed Night 2 Vigilante.

Scum would just nightkill me and then pray to the mafia gods that the town bought that someone else was Doc-saved, though.

[Blair]

Why is R2R connected to Blair?

I'll let you figure that out on your own.

Because in the alternate universe where Blair is scum, scum!Blair was willing to sacrifice her (widely townread up to that point) slot to lynch a Night 3 Vigilante and save R2R's (widely scumread) slot.

P-edit: Great. That's two clumsy hammers now.

[Blair]

In the likely event that I am murderized tonight, don't forget when analyzing today's wagon dynamics that Gamma's bad fake claim suggests scum did NOT catch my Traffic Analyst breadcrumb.

[Blair]

Quick just scumread MORE than half the living players, by the way.

[Blair]

The sudden scramble to bus this wagon suggests there may not have been scum on the wagon before that, by the way.

[Blair]

Gamma is flipping scum momentarily, and I'll be dead tonight anyway, but let's all take a moment to appreciate that Quick is seriously entertaining the idea of a universe where the scum team decides the play today (from the very first posts of the day) was to trade Blair for a random townie in order to grant the already widely scumread R2R a stay of execution.

[Blair]

The sudden scramble to bus this wagon suggests there may not have been scum on the wagon before that, by the way.

blair if you don't give us some reads i'm going to assume gamma will flip town and you're just in anti-spew mode now

I've given many reads in my roughly 300 posts in this game. I'm not going to make up new ones just to prevent you from making wild assumptions in twilight.

Quick is looking scummy again. Puppy still looks scummy. Votato looks terribad right now.

I'm leaning town on Dunn. VP could go either way.

[Blair]

Congratulations town, and well played mafia! Thanks for hosting, Umlaut, this one of my favorite games and a great playerlist.