Mafiascum.net

In post 2434, Green Cap Boys wrote:also, now that those flips have flipped that, can anyone offer me an actual good reason to townread mastina?

Several, actually. Would you prefer to hear them from me, or from others?

In post 2437, Green Cap Boys wrote:i've been saying since literal day one that mastina's tunnel should not be a reason to townread her but everyone was like "no no no mastina is town by META this is TOWN this push is town mastina she is TOWN because META" so like what was i supposed to do

Do your own research? Like, maybe the fact that so many players are saying I am town is because they are intimately familiar with the sheer night and day difference between my towngame and my scumgame? In the last two, three, years or so, my scumgame has been painfully, painfully, PAINFULLY obvious and my towngame has also been painfully, PAINFULLY obvious.

You don't have to take the word of everyone--but perhaps consider that the options are:
Everyone was misinformed because somehow some way I just so happened to have pulled off a scumgame performance the likes of which they have never ever seen before, a scumgame better than any scumgame I have had for literally years, able to fool the likes of players who have topped the charts in ability to read my alignment for years, suddenly inexplicably randomly in this game out of the blue for no reason whatsoever, that I managed to overnight pull off a massive improvement to my scumgame for some random reason...

...Or that everyone was right and they knew I was town because doing any modicum of research will plainly show that, actually, yes, it really IS that obvious that I am town and when I am scum it is just. that. obvious.

You can do the research on your own or you can even ask for my assistance and I can readily provide you with every scumgame I've had and every towngame I have and for you to look them over and see for yourself. Suffice to say should you do that research though there literally is only one conclusion; either I am making a literally god-tiered sudden inexplicable replication of my towngame as scum in spite of years of being unable to do so, or this is another towngame just like most of my other towngames.

But if you wanna go "meta is trash" in spite of how, in this case, it very much isn't? The main credit I have is defending Titus on D1 and the fury I have and the passion I have and the insistence on D3 that I have and the night actions I have committed and such. (See below for more on that.)

In post 2436, Dwlee99 wrote:Why weren't you here yesterday I was saying Mastina is evil

Dwlee I fucking you to vote me.

Dead serious here: DARE. A fucking DARE. I'm legitimately dead serious here in you to vote me. If you are town then the blame for the loss after scum piles on lies solely on you for not realizing that I'm town here in spite of you having every reason to know that I am town here, but far more likely? If as I suspect you are in fact scum, you're entering a 1v1 with me. I am quite confident I can out-duel you in a 1v1 given that I am town and if you are scum that you are scum for multiple reasons.

So I AM dead serious about that dare.

I fully expect you to be a coward and not take me up on it, for good reason, because if you cast the first vote, if you cast the first stone in that fight, regardless of your alignment you probably lose.

After all: my job gets a lot simpler if instead of needing to identify three scum, I have one identified for me. So go ahead--make my day. Vote me and see how it works out for you. This is not a threat, it is a promise and a guarantee. I know I am town and if I am wrong about you being scum and you happen to be town you should fucking know that I am town. But as it so happens, I think I am wrong about you being scum.

In post 2442, Dwlee99 wrote:mastina

I am explicitly not claiming because Dwlee wants me to claim and in fact him wanting me to claim first is incentive for me to not do so.

Unfortunately.

In order to fulfill my promise of explaining things on D3, I need to claim my night action anyway.

On N2, I pain potion'd Reinheirdt (the Bingle slot).

In post 1659, mastina wrote:

In post 1654, NorwegianboyEE wrote:I really don't know what you're planning but i'm not complaining Mastina.

It's really not much of a plan if I'm honest.

Getting into this, the basic outline of my plan was nothing special. Originally, my plan was as such;

I actually don't think Fairy Circle is scum--I'm not convinced they're town, but I no longer think that they are scum.

I want scum to think that I do, though.

I want to eliminate one of {Bingle, TLDNE} and then pain potion the other, with the hopes of between the two, killing at least one scum.

If I live to D3, if the game is still ongoing and if I am still alive, I plan on doing a full reset (regardless of the flips of those two) and reevaluating everything. My first suspect would actually be RCE by default, but I want to see the flips of D2/N2 and the information claimed to figure things out on D3.

Like I said, it's not much of a plan. A bit of obfuscation, probably pointlessly so, but it's the best I can come up with.

I recorded this thought for myself, but my thoughts continued to evolve after I wrote that as a basic note to myself (to record my intentions and make sure I didn't forget them, more or less).

When it came to the Bingle and TLDNE slots, I chose to use a modified version of a philosophy from Lady Lambdadelta. I can't find the quote where she explains this philosophy (I thought it was in defcon 4 but can't find it there), but my version basically amounted to: I wanted to push for the removal of the slots I felt would be the largest obstacle in the town solving the game and getting cohesion. (I realize that mentality is somewhat toxic, and I do apologize for it, but I genuinely believed that, toxic as that mentality may have been, it'd be the key towards a town victory by removing possible distraction from the town and leaving the town with no convenient scapegoats, no convenient mislims, allowing for them to hone in on scummy behavior indicative of scum.)

I believed those to be the TLDNE and Bingle slots, and with both being pain potion'd N1, that meant eliminating one and pain potioning the other would get the intended results. I realized it was a risk, because obviously, in the worst of worst case scenarios, we wouldn't see a D3, but even in a lesser of the worst case scenarios, the end result of that all would be two dead town at minimum.

Over the course of the end of the day, I began to feel that instead of {TLDNE, Bingle, technically-Fairy-Circle} containing a minimum of one scum, that it would contain a maximum of one scum. I knew that wagoning them could thus potentially derail scum wagons elsewhere, e.g. on the likes of Dwlee or RCE (who top the list of suspects, barring a reread).

In post 1599, mastina wrote:

In post 1584, T3 wrote:mastina is town by overall meta, Fairy is town for meta in response the pressure from Flea, Norwee is town for meta in response to pressure, GCB is town for Datisi's emotion in terms of meta.

I have thoughts on this but I won't share them unless I live to see D3.

Going back to this, I was actually planning on saying that I agreed with T3 here 100% on all of these reads today, but obviously, with some healthy skepticism needed as to not make a mylo/lylo mistake. As in, I fully agreed that Fairy Circle was town by meta and Norwee was town by meta and GCB was likely town by meta and that T3, for these observations, was incredibly likely to be town.

Again, to reiterate: I cannot blindly assume from these that the scumteam would be those not among the named, of it being Dwlee-RCE-Aristeia. All of those assumptions require rechecking and reassessment with the information from the flips thusfar that we have had, in order to get a better idea of which players are probably town in general, which players can only be scum with a specific scumteam, which players are more likely to fit as a scumteam, etc.

But it fit as an initial "theory", which, so to speak, would then be so to speak scientifically tested, by analyzing the evidence and seeing if the assumptions held true, looking for every doubt in the theory, every thing that would contradict it, every weakness in the theory, but also if this so to speak gutcheck initial hypothesis had merit to it.

If you think I'm bullshitting having townread Fairy Circle in spite of my posts yesterday:

In post 1640, mastina wrote:

In post 1595, Fairy Circle wrote:I threw down a bingle vote when I came back, we even threw him a potion at night. What dp you think pf that

I'll tell you if I am alive on D3. (If you/Mom are really REALLY smart between you two you might be able to figure it out on your own but if you can't, wait until D3.)

This was me signaling to them that I was townreading them. I repeatedly said that it was something that either individual head might not be able to figure out but that the combination of their hydra might be able to piece together. Momrangal has the experience with past-mastina to know that this is the sort of thing that, while rare, I would occasionally do. Where I would keep a read close to my chest and not reveal it to others because I didn't want my revealed read to affect others. Flea would lack that knowledge, but Flea would have the recent experience with me to notice I was trying to signal to faer, and that I had the experience with fae to have developed that townread but a need to not express it publicly.

In post 1653, mastina wrote:While I don't want to give a full readslist unless I live to D3, I do at least want to give a PARTIAL readslist today:

Never Eliminating or Pain Potioning:

Green Cap Boys
NorwegianboyEE

Probably Not Eliminating or Pain Potioning:

T3

Possibly Not Eliminating or Pain Potioning:

The Emperor (almost put him in above category for what it's worth tho)
Dwlee99

Beyond that, you'll just have to wait and see.

The reason for this format in my readslist was to not give away the Fairy Circle townread and that they were outside of my POE. I wanted scum to I thought them viable, and the only way I could do this was by obscuring them and leaving them in the remainder in spite of them truthfully being either at the T3 level or the level above. Because the beyond that, was something crucial and important.

In post 1792, mastina wrote:

In post 1678, Fairy Circle wrote:You're trying to read Mom thinking faer me. Soooo no. I can't work it out. Because your basis is wrong.

I assure you, I'm not. When Mom is around I hope you can ask her what she thinks since this is the sort of thing that I don't think you can figure out on your own and which she might not be able to figure out on her own but between the two of you you might be able to piece together what I've been getting at.

In post 1672, Dwlee99 wrote:So I watched t3 last night and no one harmed them. I picked t3 because I thought two things: if t3 is scum, we could get clears cause I thought town might dump shots there. And if t3 is town, scum might attack him because they'd suspect he is unlikely to be watched. That no one attacked him makes me think now that t3 might be evil.

For the record, I don't currently think Dwlee is scum but this is perfectly plausible of Dwlee being scum as it is exactly the sort of action he would do as scum knowing he would do it as town.

But that's not something to tackle today. Today I've got a limited vote pool and Dwlee is outside of that today.

Both of these were important. The first half was continued attempts to signal to Fairy Circle, and only Fairy Circle specifically, that I was townreading them.

The second half was deliberately chosen in wording as it was at this point that I began to doubt Dwlee, via seeing the similarity between Dwlee's 1672 with Dwlee's scumplay in Open Draft Mafia. It was my way of saying:
"I currently don't have Dwlee as scum, but he'll top my charts tomorrow as an initial suspect, which I will need to sift through in more detail tomorrow on D3. I don't think a Dwlee elimination D2 will remove the cloud of doubt on the town the same way Bingle/TLDNE would, so I'm tabling the read there until D3, where I will reassess things in full. I don't think he's scum, but if my assessment of the game is very flawed, he's one of the first places I'll look." (Thus my wording in 1799 being " assumption ". Current and overall both being key words there.)

In post 1837, mastina wrote:

In post 1803, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Is it just me or does this game feel really dead and tired.

I mean that's what happens when the folks who drive the D1 elimination don't actually get anything from said elimination* and the folks who WOULD get something from an elimination of their choice* didn't get an elimination of their choice and there being no nightkill. (It's almost like the Titus elimination didn't change the game at all whereas other eliminations would have.)

We're effectively in a D1 part two.

*What I more or less mean by this is, whenever an elimination of my choice goes through, it has a big noticeable impact on my play the following day regardless of the alignment of the eliminated player. It forces a shift from me where my play changes and adapts as a direct consequence of the flip.
The players who pushed Titus yesterday are, today, playing exactly the same as they did yesterday. The Titus flip had no noticeable impact on their play. They didn't shift, they didn't adapt. They're exactly the same as they were before the Titus elimination. Meanwhile since a Titus flip is not a flip I endorsed, it had no noticeable impact on my play the following day because it wasn't a flip I wanted. No shift from me because there's nothing different today to tomorrow for me.

Here I more or less outlined basically my motives behind pushing Bingle/TLDNE. I felt that removing them from the game would be a huge shift in the gamestate, forcing everyone--myself included--to radically shift their approach. It felt like it was the only way to make sure that going forward, we had a damn good grasp on all of the events in the game.

And given the time, it would allow us to recheck, reassess, everything, do a full reread and a full "Once More, With Clarity" read of the game to understand things we initially got the wrong idea/impression of.

In post 1841, mastina wrote:

In post 1840, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Should i just sheep Mastina on their Bingle read?

That, or my + Datisi's read on The Limit Does Not Exist.

I'm not exactly picky as to which.

I kinda sorta tipped my hand here to the townread on Fairy Circle by not including them in the list here, if you want more evidence that I'm not bullshitting having developed a townread on their slot yesterday in spite of continuing to list them in the elimination pool.

In post 1868, mastina wrote:

In post 1843, Bingle wrote:What are your current takes on FC? What would Bingletown do to your reads?

These are things I will answer!

...On D3.

Same here.

As for Bingle-town, this requires a full reread to get nuanced thoughts on. My initial thoughts were basically:
As Bingle-town meant no scum had been wagoned up high beyond fleeting wagons which capped at 3 and were never the majority for any signifcant period of time, scum could do whatever they want and say whatever they want and be at very little risk (but this requires research that my reread will be verifying);
Bingle's reads were sincere and need a revisit that I genuinely take to heart;
The scumteam did not act under the guide of Bingle's plan so I should look to theorize what the scum, not following Bingle's plan, actually did (which is possible, but requires research done through a reread);
The chances rise exponentially for certain players to be scum and for others to be town but the exact combination of this I need to do a reread to figure out for sure.

I realize it's not concrete , because inherent in this is that I needed the Bingle townflip to start it, meaning I couldn't do this overnight; I needed to wait for my pain potion on his slot to go through and kill him. In order to start the work, D3 needed to have started, so I haven't done it YET, but I have a good outline for what I need to do, where I need to look, what I am looking for, the signs I am looking for, etc.

In post 2036, mastina wrote:Forgive me for not having confidence in plurality serving us well D2 especially given that plurality is very likely the only way we'd end up with eliminations on slots like RCE, T3, Emperor, etc. today instead of TLDNE or Bingle.

In post 1873, Fairy Circle wrote:What are you doing?

Trying to eliminate scum.

Here was another attempt to hint at my plan without revealing it. I didn't want an elimination on RCE, T3, Emperor/Aristeia, etc., in spite of believing there needed to be scum within there. Because I knew that while a scumflip within there would be good as dead scum is better than living scum, a wrong townflip within there would be disastrous as a Titus V2 which would leave the gamestate on D3 unchanged.

In short, I valued the guarantee of good information (which happened to include my two highest scumreads) over the chance of a scum flip that had too much chance of hitting town and giving us shitty information. Basically, it was a risk-reward analysis. The risk behind eliminating TLDNE/Bingle and pain potioning the other was virtually nil; the reward for that was incredible as it could have netted 1-2 scum and even if both were town, it would give us an actual tangible amount of workable leads on D3.

In contrast, the risk behind eliminating outside of TLDNE was hitting town and not having a changed gamestate on D3, all for a at the reward of flipping scum.

So this was why, in spite of thinking RCE had a decent chance of being scum, I was against his elimination. The risk was too high, because if I was wrong about him being scum, nothing would change in D3 and I was not in any way shape or form highly confident in him being scum.

In post 2038, mastina wrote:Butyeah, I do not believe there's zero scum in {Bingle, TLDNE, Fairy Circle}.
It's not three scum in there, obviously, but beyond that I want to wait until D3 to give a full breakdown...ideally with the names in there mostly dead. Bingle and TLDNE are the two that I most strongly believe in being scum and are the two I am most pushing.

In post 1902, Bingle wrote:Limit is a pretty shit wagon, tbh. It gives no more info than Titus’ did yesterday.

To the contrary!

There's literally only three wagons which give us information:

The Limit Does Not Exist, Bingle, and sure I guess Fairy Circle.

Flips on any of those would give us boatloads of information regardless of the alignments within.

Literally any elimination outside of that? RCE, T3, Dwlee, Emperor, you name it?

That

would be a wagon giving no more info than Titus's did yesterday.

There's a damn good reason why I'm pushing the TLDNE/Bingle wagons so hard right now.

Here I was afraid I basically was spilling the beans on my plan, because I gave big hints that I wasn't interested in killing Fairy Circle and gave huge hints towards the reason/motive for pushing Bingle/TLDNE as hard as I did.

In post 2348, mastina wrote:I think the reasons for Limit to be scum are good, and the reasons for Limit to not be scum are lackluster, and that a Limit flip regardless of their alignment sheds more light on the alignment of all the players by giving us a much better understanding of the gamestate for all of D2 and that with their death, we will have a far better grasp of town vs. scum going into the night and tomorrow.

Now, I can actually explain some of the "Limit-town means x, Limit-scum means y" logic, but given the gamestate right now, one of the reasons I want to stave off doing this and have been saying "I will reveal this on D3" is that honestly: I don't want to do the massive amount of theorywork, theorycrafting, hypothesizing, analysis, for whichever alignment Limit isn't. I want to save the time/effort involved and cut it in half and do all of it after the fact, aided by the information from any flips we get on N2.

I do have a decent mental draft of it in my head. It's not rock-solid, it's not something concrete, but it's something I genuinely believe would be the best for the gamestate and I can explain more...
...On D3.

This was another huge hint of the plan, where I basically outlined part of the motive behind it. I DO have an initial draft of what the townflips mean. It's not something that is enough to lay a vote down without research and verification and whatnot, but I actually did do some loose rough theorycrafting of what townflips would mean. But in order to solidify that, I need to read specific parts of the game with this info, which required me having the info.

In post 2349, mastina wrote:

In post 2102, Bingle wrote:How does your read on me change if limit flips town? Scum?

As hinted at, I can do that now theoretically but I genuinely honestly would just prefer to do this...on D3. After we've got half of the equation. There's a lot of number crunching involved because it doesn't involve just your slot; it also involves every slot in the game and cross-referencing them to get a better lock. Much easier to do with at least half of the possibilities removed, if not more. (For every flip we get N2, the amount of work I need to do lessens. A downside to the scum is that for every kill they make, they reduce the number of players who could be scum and increase the number of players confirmed to be town so unless we eliminate town and the scum can make three eliminations happen on town with none on scum, scum, scum cannot endgame overnight and given scum endgaming overnight requires the stars aligning pretty much perfectly, if they attempt to do this but fail, D3 gives a plethora of flips and information to work with.)

In post 2102, Bingle wrote:Who can’t be scum with limit?

Well, for a start, Green Cap Boys, obviously.
I'd think I'm also fairly clear as well, objectively speaking.

Beyond that we get into the realm of uncertainty and guessing at probabilities versus possibilities in crunching the mental math odds with each slot--and again, I'd prefer to not do that work until D3 after we've either confirmed or denied (anticonfirmed? negative-confirmed?) that the slot is scum.

I COULD do that work now with a LOT of effort, but I really don't have it in me.

Here's more and explaining more or less why I couldn't do this until just now. I didn't know Limit was town after all so I couldn't do the work assuming Limit was town before a Limit flip.

In post 2351, mastina wrote:

In post 2117, Bingle wrote:It is XLO if there is damage done on three town, scum have 3 pain pots, no town jk/doc a no target, AND no scum die tonight. If we eliminate someone who has been pained, it drops the odds of one or three. Scum having three pain pots split between their members remaining isn’t a sure thing by any means.

This is another reason for the Limit elimination btw. And another reason I've focused on {Limit, Bingle, Fairy Circle}.

TLDNE is the best elimination for the game and it's not just because I think that they are the slot with the highest chance of being scum; they are also the slot I genuinely think gives the town the most information regardless of their flip (with Bingle and Fairy Circle a close second/third) in that regard as well as one of the slots we lose the least from eliminating (in that it removes a potential scum wincon even if they are town).

I basically gave it away, here, too.

In post 2378, mastina wrote:

In post 2376, The Limit Does Not Exist wrote:love this look for yall. really i do. mastina’s case on us was actually insane. yall do remember that she was using meta based on

hearsay

of my play and now we’re a policy elim so tomorrow she can be like “no wait! I didn’t say they had to be scum though!”

I can say that now in fact.

I didn't say you have to be scum; I am fully aware that you could be town and I could be wrong.

I happen to think you are scum and I happen to believe that even if I am wrong you were the best possible mislim we could ever make if we were to mislim today.

Which is pretty damn close, admittedly.

But sure, I did technically not say you had to be scum, because you don't have to be.

I just think you are anyway.

In post 2381, mastina wrote:Basically to put it a different way: We obviously should aim for scum, not for the least-damaging mislim.
Limit if they are town I truly believe would be the least-damaging mislim we could have, but I also happen to have campaigned for their elimination because I genuinely feel they are the slot with the highest odds of flipping scum, and as we should aim for flipping scum, Limit was who I was aiming to eliminate.

So while I may not have said Limit has to be scum.
The sentimentality carried behind "Limit has to be scum!" is more or less there, in that I think that Limit IS scum and if I were wrong (which I don't think I am but it always pays to at least acknowledge the theoretical situation where you COULD be wrong), Limit was the least-damaging mislim to make and best possible non-scum elimination that could happen.

But again to reiterate. I still think Limit is scum here.

We'll find out soon enough I suppose.

This was in my own way a preemptive apology to lillith/SS as I imagine they're less than enthused as to the nature of my plan and rather miffed at it. After all, the plan does have some toxic elements to it from the LLDesque mindset that inspired it.

In post 2384, mastina wrote:There's nothing stopping me from, at any point, breaking off a tunnel and switching to being honest in my stances/beliefs/etc. And in some rare cases, I will do so. But I do so when there is a need for it, and today I deemed there to not be a need for it.

There will almost assuredly be a need for it on D3 regardless of your alignment, mind you. But I legit thought that getting a flip and rushing into D3 was the healthiest possible thing for the gamestate. It's a calculated risk, obviously. One I could be sorely mistaken about. And if I fuck things up I will own up to the mistake in having miscalculated, having made a mistake and having been in error, but I have to stick to what I feel is the best and I felt like pushing my scumread on you and pushing for your elimination was genuinely the best thing for the game.

Here I also basically spilled the beans on the plan. My plan was a TLDNE + Bingle flip to get us into the best possible D3 gamestate where we would have the most clarity and unambiguity.



Unrelated, but still important to clarify now that I am able to:

In post 2037, mastina wrote:

In post 1876, Fairy Circle wrote:I also feel like a strong earlt game presence and then a tapering off could be scum indicative for the green bois.

Could be, but I've my own idea for why it isn't. Datisi for instance is...otherwise occupied and regardless of Datisi's alignment, I would expect that this game would not be at the top of his priority list right now. Given enough time, I'd expect this game to rise up in priority for him but right now I've good reason to believe he wouldn't be prioritizing here.

For the record, I DID notice the contrast between Datisi in this game and Datisi in tris's mini normal that I designed. (I was, after all, reading along.) Datisi's effort in that game was evident in a way absent from this game, but I was willing to give the benefit of the doubt that the reason Datisi wasn't as hardcore overdrive in THIS game was due to him being hardcore overdrive in THAT game.

I still am willing to give that benefit of the doubt to some degree, but I admit that there is some caution behind it. I can't blindly beyond-any-shadow-of-a-doubt townbin Datisi because the contrast between the two games IS rather stark, and I cannot afford to ignore it even if I believe that the contrast was not indicative of an alignment but rather indicative of which game he was most focused on. I still think Datisi is town and that the difference was precisely what I say here, a focus on that game meaning no focus on this one, but I cannot have blind 100% faith in that assumption as it's at least the difference is due to alignment even if I currently believe otherwise.

It takes time and research to determine, which I've yet to put in but plan to.

In post 2444, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Hopefully everyone keeps up their morale. I will think about this game when i'm working my shift tommorow.

While it sucks to have been wrong on BOTH Bingle AND TLDNE, my hope with my plan was that with them gone we would have precisely that, actually:
Morale.

I feel incredibly guilty and the dead have every right to be pissed at me for my plan and for my wrong reads on them and to be miffed that my plan called for their deaths, and I do genuinely apologize for both aspects of it; the wrong scumreads AND the condemnation of them as part of the plan. I sincerely, genuinely, felt it was for the best and that their deaths would not in fact lower morale but regardless of their flips would serve as a way to raise morale in letting us know what had transpired in the previous days with them being game-long focuses and, so to speak, "distractions".

If I fuck up and end up, after having planned for both of them to be eliminated, voting town and losing the game, I take 100% of the fault for the loss every step of the way as it was genuinely my bad. It legitimately would be completely and totally my fault, start to finish, and I'd owe no less than 100% of the total blame for having cost the town the game literally singlehandedly.

Which is why I am planning to use basically every second of the day to do the work I promised I would. I'm not going to be able to do it all tonight (I've got other obligations to attend to), but it starts with engaging everyone and explaining what my plan was, which I did in 2475.

(And I realize that's a long post with multiple parts to it but it IS important and you shouldn't skim it, you NEED to read it ALL, actually it read it, as in, read it, process the words, digest them, and take them in, rather than reading them and having them go in one ear and right out the other.)

In post 2449, T3 wrote:I'm thinking
So Dwlee/RCE are in the PoE and probably not scum together. Ari is the only one left outside of my locktowns [mastina, Norwee, GCB]
so uh this 'locktown isn't really locktown'
Ari is basically 100% scum here unless I just suck at reading s/s interactions

For the record, my own townieness scale right now:

Norwee T3 > GCB >> Aristeia ~= RCE >>> Dwlee.

However, this is just a loose rough initial thoughts and requires BOATLOADS of research and fact-checking and pairing interactions to see. I know that right now I am only talking about what my plan is for the fact-checking rather than actually starting the fact-checking, but I promise that, barring any unforeseen obstacles, I'll be starting that tomorrow. (Again, I have other obligations and there's a lot of work to do and I don't have time to do literally everything tonight. Explaining where I was coming from and what I want to do is better than not having done so today.)

I do truly believe the game is incredibly solvable with a little theory-crafting and fact-checking but it requires time and discussion and lots and lots and lots of reading and analyzing.

In post 2474, Aristeia wrote:i just want him to promise me he's town

Yes that sounds very helpful >_>

In post 2452, Dwlee99 wrote:Your idea for me scum is that I spent yesterday pushing none of the 3 town all with wagons but instead tried to counterwagon anything else.

Well, yes. The wagons all being town inherently means that them going through does no harm to the scum. It inherently means that the scum can do whatever they want, including pushing different-town or even scum that they are confident won't be yeeted by plurality.

If a scum player has 2-3 votes at deadline but a town player has 4-6, what harm is there in the 2-3 votes on scum coming from scum, especially when the scum voting scum can simply...unvote the scum and bring it down to 0-2 votes on scum?

Inherently: scum have no reason to hard-push for a town elimination when there is no risk of a scum elimination.
Inherently: we know there was no risk of a scum elimination due to every major wagon we've had in the game (Titus, Fairy Circle, Bingle, The Limit Does Not Exist) being on town.
Inherently, given both of the above: with no risk of a scum elimination, scum are more likely to be among the names that were hard-pushing for an elimination.

You top the charts there, but you're not alone.

It's not hard-damning and requires research to show the trends behind to be sure. But there's good reason you're one of my prime suspects.

The gamestate literally gives more evidence for you being scum than any other player--at least to my mental memory of how events played out, and checking my memory is one of the reasons I need to reread the game to make sure said memory is not faulty.

How hard was eliminating RCE yesterday? I’d say quite but i might be remembering wrong. Either way i feel like i should have trusted my gut and kept pushing there.

Oh I suppose I should fullclaim as that gives better proof of my mindset here;
At the beginning of the game, I had a watcher-potion (harmography) and a vig-potion (pain potion).

On N1, I took a gamble by using the watcher-potion (harmography) on Green Cap Boys. This was explicitly exactly that; a gamble on my part. There was a good chance I would be the nightkill but I was gambling on scum not nightkilling me for fear of me being watched by a potion of harmography. So I was watching the second most likely nightkill. I (I feel justifiably) felt I was the most likely but if not me GCB should have topped the list.

I felt I was the most likely nightkill for the scum to make. Universally townread (barring GCB's scumread there I guess), and having a naturally threatening playstyle. If I were to die N1, then the correct play would've been to use my pain potion on a scumread as to not let it go to waste. If I died N1, my watch result would be worthless, whereas if I died N1, my pain potion would not be worthless. Meaning that my usage of the watch-potion was explicitly banking on my not being killed N1, which was admittedly a risk.

That's what I meant by gamble.

Because if I were the nightkill N1, the pain potion goes to waste.

If I was NOT the nightkill, however (and per Norwee's watch on me, scum didn't target me N1), then it is probably because the scum fear a watch or protection on me--thus my choice in watch target being not the obvious nightkill of me who I can do nothing about, but the second most likely target for the nightkill.

With GCB having not been targeted for harm, I had no guilty on D2, but that also meant that I would have the ability to pain potion on N2. And with the reveal that both Bingle and TLDNE had taken one source of damage N1 but not two...the plan began to form in my head to eliminate one during the day and pain potion whichever was not the elimination.

So I'm potionless now.

In post 2476, mastina wrote:Norwee > T3 > GCB >> Aristeia ~= RCE >>> Dwlee.

Can you elaborate a bit on why T3 is so high and Dwlee so low?

In post 2479, NorwegianboyEE wrote:How hard was eliminating RCE yesterday? I’d say quite but i might be remembering wrong. Either way i feel like i should have trusted my gut and kept pushing there.

This tops the charts in being something I intend to investigate btw.

Actually i do think T3 has done a lot of things i felt was townie, but i’m more curious about Dwlee. It’s a bit of an murky slot for me right now, where i just don’t know if they’ve been town or scummy, but just like inbetween and really hard to sort.

In post 2481, NorwegianboyEE wrote:

In post 2476, mastina wrote:Norwee > T3 > GCB >> Aristeia ~= RCE >>> Dwlee.

Can you elaborate a bit on why T3 is so high and Dwlee so low?

Well for a start, read 2475.

Read it, and have the words stick in your brain rather than have them go in one ear and right out the other.

That should give you at least some idea of where T3 high and Dwlee low comes from.

But basically: T3 looks like town that was genuinely trying to solve, making genuine deductions and looking town and not acting as I would expect to act. He has a certain level of push and in some areas conviction that is very very hard for scum to fake. I've never seen T3 as scum as far as I know so I don't know what he's capable of as scum but he just looks town in almost every way shape and form possible. His thoughts look backed from a place of sincerity where they look genuine and legitimately insightful, and he's put in an amount of effort that I struggle to see as scum.

Dwlee in contrast is hard hard HARD giving off the exact same vibes as Open Draft Mafia. Everything he's doing and saying oozes that energy. It's certainly possible that I am reading into alignment what is playstyle (that being, what looks like carbon copies of his scumgame there are just part of his scumplay), but given the mental map I have of the gamestate (which I admit is just mental right now and needs verification), he checks off the metrics for what I'd expect scum to have done given all of {Titus, FC, Bingle, TLDNE} being town.

Being right about a townread is, after all, easy enough when as scum you know who is town.

In post 2484, mastina wrote:

In post 2481, NorwegianboyEE wrote:

In post 2476, mastina wrote:Norwee > T3 > GCB >> Aristeia ~= RCE >>> Dwlee.

Can you elaborate a bit on why T3 is so high and Dwlee so low?

Well for a start, read 2475.

Read it, and have the words stick in your brain rather than have them go in one ear and right out the other.

That should give you at least some idea of where T3 high and Dwlee low comes from.

But basically: T3 looks like town that was genuinely trying to solve, making genuine deductions and looking town and not acting as I would expect to act. He has a certain level of push and in some areas conviction that is very very hard for scum to fake. I've never seen T3 as scum as far as I know so I don't know what he's capable of as scum but he just looks town in almost every way shape and form possible. His thoughts look backed from a place of sincerity where they look genuine and legitimately insightful, and he's put in an amount of effort that I struggle to see as scum.

Dwlee in contrast is hard hard HARD giving off the exact same vibes as Open Draft Mafia. Everything they're doing and saying oozes that energy. It's certainly possible that I am reading into alignment what is playstyle (that being, what looks like carbon copies of their scumgame there are just part of their gameplay), but given the mental map I have of the gamestate (which I admit is just mental right now and needs verification), they checks off the metrics for what I'd expect scum to have done given all of {Titus, FC, Bingle, TLDNE} being town.

Being right about a townread is, after all, easy enough when as scum you know who is town.

Sorry.
Fixed by way of quote.

I’m not good at wallposts :/

If you just said: "Dwlee kinda like ODM mafia where he was scum because X and Y" that would be enough for me to comprehend. ^^

In post 2487, NorwegianboyEE wrote:If you just said: "Dwlee kinda like ODM mafia where he was scum because X and Y" that would be enough for me to comprehend. ^^

Well the wall is important as it explains things that I can't explain without a wall. Among them the progression of read on Dwlee.

In post 2467, Dwlee99 wrote:Where in my listing do you want me to claim?

I have no idea where my listing is at tbh

I think Dwlee isn't scum with RCE. But mastina's wall sounds really towny.

My play in ODM is similar to my play here because I know how to emulate my town meta

My policy with Mastina here is that i still fully believe they are town, and if i am wrong and they pocketed me, they can have that win. And i’ll be more cautious about them in the future. But as of now i am not voting them today, ever.

But yesterday I pushed emperor/RCE and townread all three of the people you were pushing. So either I'm scum with two of t3/GCB/norwee, which your reads list does not support that being your solve, or I decided to just lolbus my partners for no reason yesterday.

I kinda want to townread mastina just for the massive wall of effort but ffs scumreading me here is so so so stupid and if town she will have basically lost us the game by getting FC/Bingle/Limit AND me killed

I think Datisi could in fact be scum here, because with townreading Mastina and T3 it really doesn’t leave much other options. I also dislike Retti’s outburst yesterday because it was just blatantly bad sportsmanship behaviour and i don’t see the town motivation in it.

My preferred vote for today however is RCE as i believe they have the highest chance of flipping scum. And finding the remaining two should be easier once at least he is hopefully confirmed scum.

Not an fan of Aristeia either, i liked their previous slot but this new one is just awful and not trying to solve at all.

In post 2484, mastina wrote:he checks off the metrics for what I'd expect scum to have done given all of {Titus, FC, Bingle, TLDNE} being town.

Also, I went along with your plan for killing limit because you said it was the best misflip we could have if it was town. I went along with YOUR plan and now it's how you think scum would play with the gamestate. Ridiculous

Can Mastina be BoP'd?

Actually i’m going to be blatant here.
Mastina, T3, Dwlee are slots i do not want to vote. I think Dwlees posts here are pretty townie, as well as their reaction to Mastina.
So what does that leave?
GCB, RCE, ARI