New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball - [Game Over]

[Kagami]

My past self is awesome, I see I already followed that trail.

[Kagami]

When did 106 happen in your PT, mds?

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

You're taking it out of context. It was a hypothetical where Dunn and Kagami are both town and you're scum *instead* of Arthur. Like, as much as I think Jester is town, you flipping scum and Kagami flipping town means either a Parama/Arthur crossbus, inspector/Arthur scum/scum, or Smith/Jester scumteam. Which of the 3 do you think is more likely?

Okay so by this logic you literally should be voting Parama but instead are voting me good to know you want to mislynch me too.

Parama/MDS/Dunn??
Parama/MDS/mhsmith??

Unless Pie/mhsmith scum together then those 2 are most likely scenario.

Lynch Parama, if town flip lynch mhsmith pair so they don't endgame us if they're scum. If both flip scum then lynch Dunn and MDS pair in any order.

If Parama town and only mhsmith scum, then MDS pair then Dunn.

If Parama scum then MDS pair and If scum flip then probably mhsmith then Dunn.

And I live to endgame and win it for us

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

Wow my plan is genius you're welcome guys.

Okay back to work, Parama lynch best lynch still though.

[Parama]

again: my pair flipping before arthur's means that arthur should be the very next person to go, and anyone who tries to resist is scum 100%

[FakeGod]

VoteCount 2.7

The_Jester - MiniDeathStar [0] -
Human Sequencer - Parama [4] - Dunnstral, Ser Arthur Dayne, Kagami, Human Sequencer
Ser Arthur Dayne - inspectorscout [2] - Parama, MiniDeathStar
mhsmith0 - pieguyn [1] - inspectorscout
Dunnstral - Kagami [0] -

Not Voting [3]

- The_Jester, pieguyn, mhsmith0

With 10 alive it takes 6 votes to lynch

.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2016-12-25 17:00:00)

[Parama]

@mod that deadline is on christmas day can we have an extension

[Kagami]

more importantly, jester requires replacement.

[mhsmith0]

Hi smith, how about you produce a reasonably likely configuration of scum from {sad, scout, jester, MDS, parama, HS}, and explain why it's likely?

That would be a great way of demonstrating your towniness.

Am working on it, I will let you know if/when I feel like I have a good idea. Don't really feel like vomiting up a guess just for the sake of vomiting up a guess.

so you haven't been thinking about it at all, is what you're saying? despite it being the hottest topic in the thread for the past few days?

Sure I've been thinking about it, but I don't have an especially great guess...

Pie town implies at least one of Dunn/scout scum given their continued push against the idea were a town pair (SAD more or less openly chaining lynches now makes him lock scum in the world where pie/HS/para all town)

Pie scum implies... I really don't know? Like I could maybe see something exotic like a scum/scum pair (Dunn/kagami?), but I don't especially feel like that fits interactions well, unless the entire point was to get pie lynched for the town credit to Dunn/kagami, and pies behavior during our fight reflected a total disregard for the possibility I'd completely run out of patience w her and suicide, or that a bunch of townies would hop on because they bought one side or the other. MAYBE I could see pie/sad/scout, especially given pies talk in PT about scout being shitty town but not scum, and there's no question that sad/scout if a team could ride high on the credibility boost from a pie flip
Except all of that requires scum!pie, which I still don't actually see

Also I'm entirely waffling on you (I don't love a decent chunk of your sad push, but don't think I really love sads push on you either), which I GUESS could mean you and SAD are doing theater (this is the point in the game where it might make sense, and this is especially true if a scum/scum pair is bussing their third teammate), but other than "it could be so" I don't really have anything solid to actually say that it IS so.

Tldr version: I really don't know, and there are a bunch f possibilities that occur, but nothing really jumps out at me as being clearly the case.

@Parama: If SAD is just being an arrogant jerk instead of a wolf, what does the game board look like to you?

if sad flips town (and scout does too, which i'd expect to happen) then gg we're boned because scum are gonna push a powerlynch on my pair

i also think this is incredibly unlikely

ftr if you think my scumread on sad is simply based on him being arrogant then L O L

I didn't say that your whole read is based on that, what I said is that the part of your read that relies on that rings really hollow to me.

Let's try again: in a weird world where you and SAD are both town, what is happening with the game state? Who makes sense as scum in that framework? Take "well we're screwed if that happens" off the table for a sec and just think through what actually might be going on in such a case.

Parama, can you talk about what was obvscum about this? I'm looking back at this and I don't really see what merited the "holy crap kill this with fire" treatment.

you literally quoted the post where i explained it

kagami jumped off the wagon 'cause she thought it was near a lynch, then hopped right back on when she realized it wasn't

Does not strike me as obvscum. It strikes me as null given that town!kagami could have been nervous about being near maj, then realized it wasn't close, so just basically did a "eh never mind" on the hop off. Given that a town or scum explanation seems plausible, why did it jump out at you as obvscum?

[inspectorscout]

especially given pies talk in PT about scout being shitty town but not scum

You've done the exact fucking same thing, over and over.
Not a good theory.

[mhsmith0]

especially given pies talk in PT about scout being shitty town but not scum

You've done the exact fucking same thing, over and over.
Not a good theory.

From an outside perspective, I might be scum-buddies with you, although I'd think that the scale of our hostility makes that fairly unlikely, whereas pies basic dismissal of you as bad town, without nearly as much hostile interaction, makes that at least a plausible idea. Though pie/SAD would be similarly possible, i guess, if she for some reason felt it was necessary to avoid scrutiny on your slot (though I'm nit sure that she'd normally feel the need to over in that case.

Though again I don't really think pie is scum so I'm pretty sure it's moot.

[inspectorscout]

In that case

fine.

[Parama]

@mhsmith's questions:
1. this is a waste of my time
2. we see different things as scummy, then, i'm not gonna repeat myself

[mhsmith0]

Need to think about this and reread. Weekend is crazy so far.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: jester-mds

Thought they were L-1 or 2

holy crap kill this with fire

okay yeah
calling it now: MDS/Jester T/T 100%
SAD + Kagami + smith I guess?

misreading the chain of events, smith. kagami jumped off the wagon 'cause she thought it was near a lynch, then hopped right back on when she realized it wasn't. you're misreading.

also i don't know what spewing means in this context

Parama, can you talk about what was obvscum about this? I'm looking back at this and I don't really see what merited the "holy crap kill this with fire" treatment.

Anyone else wanna weigh in on this? At the time conversation diverted into other topics and it more or less got lost, which is kind of odd for what might have been a potential "aha" type moment. This strikes me as very much null on kagami's part as opposed to obvscum, and parama thinks it was obvscum but doesn't want to talk about why she thinks it was. Does anyone else think it was obvscum by kagami?

[MiniDeathStar]

When did 106 happen in your PT, mds?

Do you mean 104? 106 was mine. It was Dec 7, 8:40 am (GMT).

Okay so by this logic you literally should be voting Parama but instead are voting me good to know you want to mislynch me too.

That logic only applies if Dunn and Kagami both flip town.

Lynch Parama, if town flip lynch mhsmith pair so they don't endgame us if they're scum. If both flip scum then lynch Dunn and MDS pair in any order.

If Parama flips town, we are powerlynching your pair. I thought everyone made this crystal clear.

Does anyone else think it was obvscum by kagami?

Not obvscum but I thought it was pretty scummy. Like she didn't want us lynched but didn't want our wagon to die either, which pretty much confirmed my paranoia from earlier that scum are keeping us alive and under continuous suspicion as a sort of planned endgame mislynch.

[Dunnstral]

I can agree to that. The part where you die, at least. Also the lynching pie/smith part after if you flip town part.
not sure what you mean by mds casually slide to endgame when she's clearly a member of the town.... parama pair would be lynched somewhere in there

if SAD/scout flips town/town, lynch this, immediately.

this is pure opportunism, in a position where we specifically need to WAIT until we have a plan in place before proceeding. I think he thinks scout will suicide and is hoping to capitalize on it, and then lynch my pair for the win.

No, I figured scout was probably blowing hot air. He's probably scum.

Kagami, are we still in agreement that the SAD pair would be the most likely town pair if Dunn is town? I can't tell how much of what Dunn is saying is stuff that you've signed off on.

If Kagami is the one to suicide I want to be the one to determine the lynch order

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

If Parama flips town, we are powerlynching your pair. I thought everyone made this crystal clear.

Well well well

You have finally shown your true colors.

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

Fuck me it's MDS/Dunn/mhsmith isn't it.

[FakeGod]

@Mod please try to find a replacement.

Looking for a replacement for The_Jester.

The_Jester has agreed to come back.

I will extend the deadline by 24 hours.

[FakeGod]

VoteCount 2.8

The_Jester - MiniDeathStar [0] -
Human Sequencer - Parama [4] - Dunnstral, Ser Arthur Dayne, Kagami, Human Sequencer
Ser Arthur Dayne - inspectorscout [2] - Parama, MiniDeathStar
mhsmith0 - pieguyn [1] - inspectorscout
Dunnstral - Kagami [0] -

Not Voting [3]

- The_Jester, pieguyn, mhsmith0

With 10 alive it takes 6 votes to lynch

.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2016-12-26 17:00:00)

[Kagami]

When did 106 happen in your PT, mds?

Do you mean 104? 106 was mine. It was Dec 7, 8:40 am (GMT).

Then he reread smith and decided he was scummo #3 is 2 hours. I guess that's not impossible, and fits with having come to a t-t conclusion on HS-parama about 1 hour in. Kind of surprising he wouldn't mention his smith conclusion.

[Kagami]

Fuck me it's MDS/Dunn/mhsmith isn't it.

Read smith's iso and his interactions with the MDS/jester pair. He has a lukewarm scumread on jester all game long while jumping in whenever possible to deter people from going after the pair on the basis of an MDS scumread. That's how a buddy with jester behaves, not one with MDS.

Secondly, Dunn and Smith aren't partners. I'm not sure how you generated that connection, but it's not there.

[Kagami]

Most likely non-dunn group (and I'm inclined to think dunn town if for no reason other than his insistence that he gets to decide something if I suicide) remains Smith-Jester-Parama to my mind.

[Kagami]

Nobody has suggested any really plausible counter-configuration for the kagami-plan, including parama who should really be the most capable and invested, so I'm kind of inclined to just go with it.

[mhsmith0]

Most likely non-dunn group (and I'm inclined to think dunn town if for no reason other than his insistence that he gets to decide something if I suicide) remains Smith-Jester-Parama to my mind.

Nobody has suggested any really plausible counter-configuration for the kagami-plan, including parama who should really be the most capable and invested, so I'm kind of inclined to just go with it.

If you're leaning that dunn is town, what's the downside of pushing harder on parama, me or jester vs suiciding on dunn?