Mini 1449 - Ordinary Town

[Toomai]

/confirmalermadirm

[Toomai]

Vote: Varsoon

Parce que t'as toujours détesté Simon Le Bon.

{Because you've always hated Simon Le Bon.}

[Toomai]

4 posts, 4 seperate votes on different people?

this is bullshit, all 3 of you are actively trying to reduce town's information thus the scumteam is HP, Toomai, and ac1983fan

Ridiculously terrible reasoning. Random is random; not joining wagons in the first 5 posts is beyond a null tell.

Vote: GoodCopBadCop

[Toomai]

Such an interesting start this fine day!

VOTE: Varsoon Cause I like the way Toomai thinks

This looks pretty RVS (referencing my random vote), I don't know why people are jumping on it. Also it probably doesn't count since it's not bolded.

Vote: GoodCopBadCop

Wagon time!

Let's not start a wagon against the biggest attention whore in the thread so far mmmmkay?

Why not? Not sure I like how fast it built up, but as long as it doesn't go much further, I don't see the problem. A bold statement was made that people don't agree with, so we put on some votes to get explanation or reaction.

[Toomai]

his vote was definitely trying to hide in the chaos, rather than contribute to creating order and information

Flurry of RVS activity at game start is hardly "chaos" in my opinion.

Voting someone because of ridiculously terrible reasoning during the RVS/ending of the RVS? it's like you've never played before

I see your point, but from my perspective it was a serious kind of bad reasoning, given that he had already placed a random vote.

How fast it built up? Three people are on the wagon.

This is my first non-Newbie game; I'm not used to the larger number of players yet.

So you want to policy lynch people who RVS.

Votes generally do not exclusively mean "lynch this guy ASAP".

[Toomai]

Cheery Pie and hapahauli are both pretty town. I'm not seeing poor logic on either side of their discussion.

How can I get round to any details of the points raised when I'm still trying to wrap my head around what's actually going on?

Seems pretty simple to me: hapahauli looked for the people that weren't posting, saw the two people with 1 post, and found them to be scummy. You brought up someone who has no posts and hapahauli went either "hmm, didn't think of that, but you can't really do much to no-posters early Day 1" or "I noticed, but you can't really do much to no-posters early Day 1". That's how I see it anyway.

I'm gonna concur with the NicCage suspicion since, while Varsoon and Daemon385 made one bad post each that could be construed as RVS (if you have a really open mind), NicCage has made about three bad posts with about the same amount of content.

Vote: NicCage

(that's 5/7)

[Toomai]

1. If I took something too seriously, that's an error in judgement, which is not alignment indicative.
2. So you didn't like the GCBC wagon, but that doesn't make people on it scum. You need more explanation there.
3. I am always cautious.

[Toomai]

I see GCBC as mostly null leaning weak scum. My original vote on it was because I took 19 seriously, which others have said may not be the case and I now somewhat agree with. Also didn't like how the sequence of 37-39-41 contained dubious logic, a sheep vote, and a request/demand for more sheep - the wagon itself was not a bad idea for why I said in 87 but he jumped on it without even waiting for the answer to the question of why.

Actually, now that I look at it, he jumped on it after NicCage asked why him and not me. That makes no sense.

Vote: GoodCopBadCop

I want these things answered:

• 19: Was this a serious (non-RVS) vote, and if so why?
• 39: Why did you only sheepvote NicCage after he asked why he was being singled out?

[Toomai]

Actually, now that I look at it, he jumped on it after NicCage asked why him and not me. That makes no sense.

Regarding the bolded, why do his actions not make sense?

the "why me and not someone else" comment has absolutely no town motivation, instead it is a self preservation comment.

I didn't think of this. I figured that whenever anyone asks "why X and not Y" they are asking a reasonable question that deserves an answer, but I didn't consider that the case where X = self has a possibility of being blame-shifting.

[Toomai]

Actually, now that I look at it, he jumped on it after NicCage asked why him and not me. That makes no sense.

Regarding the bolded, why do his actions not make sense?

the "why me and not someone else" comment has absolutely no town motivation, instead it is a self preservation comment.

I didn't think of this. I figured that whenever anyone asks "why X and not Y" they are asking a reasonable question that deserves an answer, but I didn't consider that the case where X = self has a possibility of being blame-shifting.

"Derp I didn't think about this."

I don't buy it. I find it very hard to believe that he didn't think about this viewpoint at all, given how many people were suspicious of that particular quote by NC. Furthermore, I find it hard to believe that Toomai, whom was suspicious of NC then (and is still presumably suspicious of him now) would suddenly come up with a "townie-NC" reading of NC's quote so naturally.

Basically, I didn't know that said post was a major reason people were voting him. I thought it was the combination of three posts with no content and one question. Was it made obvious anywhere?

As for the rest of your post about me - I can't defend against it. I did things that I thought were good ideas and turned out to be mistakes. Now I have to delete the erronous reads and sit around and be lost until something happens that's worth voting for because I only know how to respond to discussion, not how to create it.

Unvote

Toomai is a fairly newer player, and I find that newer players often wear their emotions on their sleeves or make it very clear that they're suspicious of like everrrrryone in the thread. That mentality isn't present with Toomai in several noticeable instances:

I feel like picking this out though. I don't have either of these characteristics because 1. acting suspicious of everyone is itself suspicious (so I've been told) and 2. historically nothing good has ever come of me being emotional.

[Toomai]

Understand where you're coming from, Hapa.

You just seem way too eager to play town.

I don't like this post.

I'd like a GCBC flip or a NicCage flip.
Although, I really like Nic, so I guess,
Either a Toomai flip or a hapahauli flip would also be good.

This one bugged me as well since it didn't really explain anything.

ACFAN: Scum.
CHEERPIE: Town.
DAEMON: Scum.
DYSLEXICON: Scum.
GCBC: Scum.
HAPAH: Town.
HPLEAVES: Town.
PONYJAKE: Scum.
NICCAGE: Scum.
QWINTS: Scum.
SCOTT: Scum.
TOOMAI: Town.
ZEFIEND: Scum.

You said "no nulls". Did you squish your reads into the boolean format just to get rid of nulls, or do you actually have no nulls?

In other news, Daemon385 needs to put more effort into making his sentences understandable.

[Toomai]

V/LA for a day or maybe two while I deal with a new computer.

[Toomai]

Back.

Already regret this V/LA business since now I'm having trouble absorbing all the posts since then. So I figure I'll just post reads.

• GoodCopBadCop:
  Somewhat scummish
  Mostly over that kerfuffle from the first part of the game, but BadCop has yet to do much. GoodCop looked like he might pick up the slack but hasn't really.
  
• hapahauli:
  YesTown
  Most posts by far, active scumhunting, no bad logic.
  
• Dyslexicon:
  In the background
  Didn't like the last part of 93. 117 was decent but then 176/7.
  
• Cheery Pie:
  Pretty good
  See nothing wrong with this guy at all. Makes good posts.
  
• Jake from Rainbowdash:
  Townish
  Same as CP, no evidence of being scum and makes town posts.
  
• hp[leaves]:
  Pretty much null
  About even between town content and scum content I feel.
  
• Varsoon:
  Scummy
  Aside from 163, his posts starting from 138 have been mostly empty.
  
• NicCage:
  Ugh
  Bad start, but not anything to go on since then, and I don't really update my reads much when people aren't posting. Still on my shortlist; won't vote him right now because of reasons previously stated (don't need a lynch for a few more days).
  
• ac1983fan:
  Blank
  Not much to go on but what there is seems okay. Does not appear scummy.
  
• ɀefiend:
  Also blank
  Posts are okay but needs more of them.
  
• Scott Brosius:
  Not bad
  Mainly good stuff so far.
  
• Daemon385:
  Ehh
  Hasn't really done anything of notewortiness.

To back up the above:

Vote: Varsoon

[Toomai]

I'm not voting you because you voted me. I'm voting you because I want to vote a scummy player and not put anyone at L-1 yet. Therefore, not OMGUS.

There are easier people to vote for (e.g. NicCage); while a bunch of people think you're scummy this is the first time you've had two votes at once. If this is "too easy", then make it not easy.

[Toomai]

Dyslexicon:

In the background

Didn't like the last part of 93. 117 was decent but then 176/7.

You can't just link random posts and expect people to understand what you're saying.

WHY

don't you like posts 93 and 176?

WHY

do you like post 117?

Furthermore, what does "In the Background" even mean? Is he scummy or townie?

#93: "Seems like votes are flying high anyways. Keep it up sports!" gives me the impression that he wants to hang back and let other people do the work for him.
#117: "Nope, didn't have any questions really." was kind of lame, but the questions he asked at the end of the post seemed reasonable. Hence "decent" but not "good".
#176/7: Chain-sheeping and noting a lot of agreement, then not following up on it.
I don't really have much but a null/very weak scum. He's been too uninvolved for me to get much.

hp[leaves]:

Pretty much null

About even between town content and scum content I feel.

Where's the scum-content in hp's filter? Again you can't just say it exists and not point to it at all.

He initially picked NicCage off the GCBC wagon and gave no reason (RVS was over at this point, I'm pretty sure). He later called me scum with NicCage, again with no reason.

NicCage:

Ugh

Bad start, but not anything to go on since then, and I don't really update my reads much when people aren't posting. Still on my shortlist; won't vote him right now because of reasons previously stated (don't need a lynch for a few more days).

Why "Ugh" and not "scum?" I don't understand the distinction.

"Ugh" here is used in the sense of "done scummy things, few posts, everyone's on him; but it seems too easy". (I just copy-pasted what I have in the list here and apparently neglected to expand.)

Scott Brosius:

Not bad

Mainly good stuff so far.

What's good in his filter? I think it's awful (for reasons I'll explain later).

I think I can just iterate through his ISOs:

1. "Wagon time!" Didn't like it initially but it's just like any other RVS reason.
2. Made logical points.
3. Mostly found this to be null. Nothing in there that reads either way.
4. Calls out reasonless reads, gives a pair of townish reads and a pair of bad posts.
5. Parts 1 and 3 were kinda meh; part 2 was not bad.
6. I originally thought this was a null post, but your 227 made me realize otherwise - while Daemon did post about being suspicious of SB in 211, he didn't say it was a "new scumread"; it could have been one he held previously and didn't bring it out until then.

Daemon385:

Ehh

Hasn't really done anything of notewortiness.[/list]

Why "Ehh"? If someone hasnt' done anything a week into the game, I'd probably be more suspicious of them than "ehh..."

I still have him tied for bottom 4; it's not like I'm ignoring him. Probably again a case of not fully expanding notes.

[Toomai]

Can you please expand on Daemon?

He's basically active lurking. In terms of content all he's done is state slight suspicion of two people while giving no solid reasons why.

[Toomai]

Multiple people have said I'm "a good wagon". I presume this is for one of three reasons:

1. You want me lynched because you think I'm scum.
2. You want to make me claim.
3. You want to pressure me into doing something.

Anyone feel like sharing their reason?

[Toomai]

@ Toomai, this comment about the BCGC wagon

Not sure I like how fast it built up, but as long as it doesn't go much further, I don't see the problem.

1. why did you not like the speed of it?
2. why did you not want it to go any further?
3. why did you not question any of the people who hopped on after you voted?

The comment was made at a time when I was still not completely used to the numbers in a 13-player game (having only played 9-player games previously), so I felt that 4 votes was a lot in a short time and decided to comment. Relatively soon after that (somewhat hinted at in 47) I decided that I was in the wrong about it.

I am okay with either Varsoon or NicCage being lynched; they both have a rather low signal-to-noise ratio and haven't really done much to convince me they're town.

hapahauli: I think you've been writing "Toomai" instead of "Varsoon" in a few of your recent posts (274, 282), can you make sure you aimed them correctly?

[Toomai]

Okay I give.

Unvote

Not voting NC yet because there's still a few days; not voting SB yet because I'm not as certain about him.

[Toomai]

Why does it matter if there's a few days left?

Eh I guess you're right. We do kind of need enough time for him to claim.

Vote: NicCage

[L-1]

[Toomai]

@ Toomai - why do you think Nic is scum and what do you think of the recent votes on Scott.

Also what's your read on scott.

NC asked an arguably suspicion-shifting question in 38, sheeped in 52, uses 212 to call my mistakes scumslips (that might be putting it a bit strong but that's kind of what I see right now), and in 302 called a player town with no reason even though said player had not done anything in 80 posts.

I have SB as null/very weak scum. I can see why people don't like what he's doing (e.g. 215) but don't currently think it's worth my vote.

[Toomai]

You have me convinced. I felt there was going to be at least one scum in the set of not-common-posters and the evidence seems legit.

Vote: ac1983fan

[Toomai]

Well I guess I'll go back to where I was then.

Vote: NicCage

That said, 1-Shot Doctor seems like a really weird claim to me. It's weak and unusual enough that it doesn't look like something that would be faked, but in the same way it's far easier to explain why he's not being killed (since if the claim is true the Mafia probably would like to keep him around for a while to keep suspicion high, as opposed to a full Doctor claim which would make everyone expect instant death).

[Toomai]

Clearly I was not prepared for this amount of posts.

I don't really have any idea what to think. As it stands I prefer the NC lynch over the acf one because I feel it will provide more useful information overall. If we're lucky we have a Vig that'll shoot acf and solve that question simultaneously.

SB has 0 votes right now and I don't think we should try to pile them on today, since that'll just make things more complicated should it turn out that not enough people join in.

[Toomai]

So with the suspended deadline maybe we can get a wagon rolling on SB.

I'm not unvoting NC yet though. He's been at L-1 twice now and needs to claim.

[Toomai]

This guy literally wants to lynch anybody. NC gains steam, hes on there. acfan gains steam hes on there, acfan loses steam jumps back to NC. hap wants to lead a wagon against me, hey maybe we can get some support!

The only thing worth Toomai's vote is any potential lynch.

For the record, for the last few pages I have been receptive towards lynching two people:

• NicCage, because he started out scummy and now seems to be lurking, maybe hoping his wagon goes away. Since his wagon has been omnipresent throughout the day, lynching him would probably provide a good amount of information.
• ac1983fan, because of the persuasive case posted and the weird claim (though I am still unsure whether to believe it).

I don't currently want to lynch Scott Brosius since I'm still kind of undecided on him; I was suggesting we might be able to start a wagon because it might generate more useful information.

[Toomai]

@Mod: Something funny's up with the numbers in that vote count.

Fixed

Cause you gave intent to hammer without saying much of anything. That's sketchy

Um where was this? I don't see it.

[Toomai]

So I suppose I'm getting lynched then. That's fine. I'm claiming VT now, and I would like to give some final reads cause I think I might be onto something. But, I'm phoneposting and I can't really make a case right now.

Short version is I think Jake is scum. Remember that thing varsoon said earlier? I agree with that, that's part of it. If I get to my computer before I flip I'll tell you all the other reasons I think I saw.

what "thing" did varsoon say that you agree with?

Must be 303, that's the only thing I can see that looks relevant. If so it looks somewhat weak.

[Toomai]

I don't know about this Cheery Pie business; I currently have him as weak-town, but I don't totally recall why at the moment and no one's voted him all game.

I can't stay for the late-night party unfortunately.

[Toomai]

I may be wrong but I was curious about the Toomai wagon I think I am oblivious to why vote him? I just need to know what is up with him >.<

I think the main beef people have with me is the conception that I votehop and therefore don't care who gets lynched as long as it's not me. If that's what people want to think then whatever.

@ ac1983fan

I could functionally vote you as well. Why were you not present in the thread at all in the last few days of D1?

This bothers me as well. Just because you claimed a PR before deadline doesn't mean you should just sit back and expect to be okay, especially with a weak one that multiple people wanted to lynch anyway.

Vote: ac1983fan

[Toomai]

I'm not doing this nightkill speculation stuff. I want ac1983fan to get in here and tell us who he protected without too much discussion of it beforehand.

[Toomai]

If he was legit, I feel mafia would be stupid not to kill him.

And miss out on all this extra speculation? He did only claim 1-Shot after all.

[Toomai]

I agree with the people suggesting that scum has no reason to update a claim to add "Weak".

Unvote

While I try to figure out who to vote I'll note that JRD seems to have shifted into a rather offensive state. Feels somewhat different than Day 1 style.

[Toomai]

Last scum in the lurker clusterfuck of Toomai, Dyslexicon, Daemon, Scott.

Are you saying that I should sheep more then? Because if I don't have anything to add, I'm not going to add it.

[Toomai]

Vote: Dyslexicon

Feel like poking in this direction to start. Basically I have this gut feeling that he bussed ac1983fan in addition to the laissez-faire attitude about other goings-on. If the Kings/Sharks game doesn't go too long I'll see if I can put in some more effort.

[Toomai]

Well I have SB on my list of scummy people.

Vote: Scott Brosius

I like the claim, it feels in line with the setup so far (not elaborating, might give scum outs).

[Toomai]

2 used + 2 left = how many?

Bulletproof is typically reflexive, not activated, so that wouldn't count.

If you killed zef then...that means mafia has killed no one?

You awake to find there is one less possible suspect. A friendlier than ordinary person was

stabbed

during the night.

I don't know what to make of this right now.

Mass claim is happening today. So toomai goes next and popcorns.

Fine.

Claim:

Vanilla Townie

Ummmmm...................I guess more people would prefer that CP claims next.

[Toomai]

So uh how do we actually know that a Doctor would show up as "has a knife" to a Knifesmith? To me that seems a bit of a stretch flavour-wise.

This is how I currently feel about the contentious claims:

• Chance JOAT is true:
  35%
  (seems too unlikely to be faked)
• Chance Doctor is true:
  40%
  (easier to claim, choices make more sense than JOAT's, harder to explain NK survival)
• Chance both are true:
  25%

[Toomai]

So you leave no room for both claim being false?

That is correct. Both claims being false makes no sense at all to me.

[Toomai]

Jumps on acfan Day 2, and conveniently leaves the wagon as it gains steam, the first time he has done this all game, and acfan flipped red. Puts his vote safely on a player that nobody has discussed or expressed many scum reads about. This interaction with acfan jumping off that wagon at a convenient time is pretty damning to me.

Were I online at a better time that day I probably would have gotten back on the wagon after reading the goings-on. As it happened by the time I showed up he was already hammered.

Also voiced opinions of supporting basically any wagon that had potential.

More like "any wagon that I currently believe is on scum that I want to get lynched".

[Toomai]

It's *possible* he's some kind of SK variant, but that's putting a lot of eggs into one basket. There are many 3rd party roles (some of which can be friendly to us) that we probably shouldn't lynch.

I believe SK is the only valid 3rd-party role in a Normal game.

[Toomai]

This makes me wonder why HP did not shoot Toomai N1 when he says stuff like

post_id=4957203 time=1368652063 user_id=10128]Toom

post_id=4958857 time=1368718115 user_id=10128]Well I'm all for NC or Toomai now so if we're not lynching Toomai,

VOTE: NC

post_id=4959324 time=1368734632 user_id=10128]Both opportunistic, weak votes. I still don't understand why we're prioritizing NC over Toomai.

and to start Day 2

post_id=4974296 time=1369260350 user_id=10128]VOTE: Toomai

The fact he killed kuribo instead of Toomai is not a town mentality, that is a scum/SK mentality.

game over. HP is scum.

Woah.

Big-O FoS: hp[leaves]

Not intent to hammer yet since we still have like a dozen days and people need to respond to this intriguing observation.

[Toomai]

today we lynch either Toomai or Daemon imo.

Let's get the ball rolling then.

Vote: Daemon385

Like Dyslexicon he's scuttled along and mostly gotten a free pass.

[Toomai]

Y'know what fine.

Vote: Toomai

I currently have no idea what I'm doing. I will be a liability to the town until I flip or do a full reread (which will take a few days). We have two mislyches to give so go ahead and use one.

[Toomai]

Tried reread, realized it was an utter waste of time by page 14 given 1198.

If the plan is indeed to lynch me or Daemon and track the other, I'm okay with either permutation and will move vote to either side when necessary. The hp/SB thing is either a failed bus or a frame attempt (since many people didn't like his play at the time) and I can't decide which is more likely.

Sorry for vanishing to sourgrapesland in previous post, I have many things happening with my higher priorities. But the self-vote stays because my lynch will help the town as said above.

[Toomai]

No need to waist a ml if we can find the scum.

We have 1 scum left to find and 2 mislynches, 1 no lynch, and 1 track to do it with. Why shouldn't we let the playerlist get pared down?

[Toomai]

Neither are that impressive, but at the very least look at who scum was voting for parts of the game, toomai.

This got me thinking.

	D1	D2	D3
hp[leaves] 's votes	GCBC, NC , Toomai , NC , Toomai , NC	Toomai	SB, hp[l]
ac1983fan 's votes	Toomai , Daemon, Varsoon , SB	SB	—
GoodCopBadCop's votes	JRD , acf , NC , zefiend , Varsoon , SB, acf , NC , Toomai , NC	acf , Toomai , acf	hp[l]
Toomai 's votes	Varsoon , GCBC, NC , GCBC, Varsoon , NC , acf , NC	acf	Dyslx , SB
Scott Brosius's votes	GCBC, Varsoon , Toomai	Toomai , acf	hp[l]
Daemon385's votes	NC , acf , NC

(

conf-town

,

prob-town

,

self-conf-town

,

conf-scum

,

dead

)
(RVS votes counted. Unvotes and vote durations ignored.)

I'm not sure what to do with this right now, but maybe someone else will have a flash of insight. I do know one thing though: Daemon is the only player to get through two days without voting.

GCBC practically has the hammer at this point though (assuming Toomai would switch off himself)

Indeed.

[Toomai]

Also toomai did vote acfan D2, but makes it seem like he was on the lynch as well, which he wasn't.

Alright I can clarify.

	D1	D2	D3
hp[leaves] 's votes	GCBC, NC , Toomai , NC , Toomai , NC	Toomai	SB, hp[l]
ac1983fan 's votes	Toomai , unvote , Daemon, unvote , Varsoon , SB	SB	—
GoodCopBadCop's votes	JRD , acf , NC , zefiend , Varsoon , unvote , SB, unvote , acf , unvote , NC , Toomai , NC	acf , Toomai , acf	hp[l]
Toomai 's votes	Varsoon , GCBC, NC , GCBC, unvote , Varsoon , unvote , NC , acf , NC	acf , unvote	Dyslx , SB
Scott Brosius's votes	GCBC, Varsoon , Toomai	Toomai , acf	hp[l]
Daemon385's votes	NC , acf , NC

(

conf-town

,

prob-town

,

self-conf-town

,

conf-scum

,

dead

)
(Random votes counted. Unvotes counted. Vote durations ignored.)

Also,

Vote: Daemon385

. Since in the grand scheme of things it doesn't really matter whether it's him or me, I might as well not vote for the one I know is conf-town. I'll go back to self-voting if deadline is coming but I kinda doubt that will happen.

[Toomai]

I'd love to hear theories from your point of view on who YOU think is most likely partner to AC/HP also why do you think mafia didn't kill CP when he was the obvious NK target.

Apparently the scum would rather shoot a highly-active townleader than a doctor. There's an argument either way.

I still don't really like SB in general, but I'm starting to feel like he's not scum because hp[l] said he blocked him. He knew that there may have been a Tracker so claiming a different target would be dangerous, and I find it hard to believe scum would waste a block just to attempt a bus the next day.

Daemon never voted for two consecutive days and that's a large black mark. GCBC votehopped more than I did Day 1 and seems to have shrunk away lately. If indeed Dyslexicon is town due to the factional/personal ability conflict (that we can't expect the mod to tell us what the ruling would be) then it's one of them.

[Toomai]

Want to pick out one thing from this kerfuffle: Why is GCBC convinced that he got picked for neighbourization as a townread? Isn't it possible he got picked as a nullread and Kuribo wanted to use the neighbourization to pseudo-investigate him?

I could be missing something given the recent mass deluge though.

[Toomai]

If Daemon is town I want to speedlynch GCBC tomorrow. That's my current feelings.

[Toomai]

Yeah I don't think any more discussion is necessary.

Vote: Daemon385

[Toomai]

Obvious no-kill is obvious. This is basically Follow the Tracker right now and there are really only two plays: kill the Doctor or no-kill to try and waste another day on some suspect.

[Toomai]

If Daemon is town I want to speedlynch GCBC tomorrow. That's my current feelings.

Vote: GoodCopBadCop

Forcewins are kinda blargh.

[Toomai]

Vote: Scott Brosius

I've had him consistently rated lower than Dyslexicon since post 501. Gonna go with it.