Newbie 1756: Balloon (Game Over)

[Loopdan]

Well this sucks. I offered to replace in because I've played with four of you before. Except now I see two of them are dead and I'm replacing the third.

Hi Accountant.

[Loopdan]

Hey Loopdan. Take your time to catch up and give us your thoughts?

I started reading last night and will try to finish it up today.

[Loopdan]

I'll post as I go along...

After the first four pages:
scum=
Charl - don't like the RVS post; don't like 50
Norsk - not crazy about 46; on page 4 Norsk votes then unvotes Charl and seems real concerned with how others view his play

town=
thatsit - I like 80 and 95 for town!thatsit

[Loopdan]

After 11 pages...

scum= charl, Manuel (maybe norsk)
town= thatsit
no idea on Acct or Tweet

[Loopdan]

Oh WCSBO, you sweet sweet child.... why?

[Loopdan]

Start of page 17
scum=Manuel (maybe norsk or Acct)
town=who the hell knows at this point

I really don't like how nobody said anything to shut up WCSBO from babbling about roles until it was too late. There were several posts earlier where WCSBO was softing and everyone just let it ride.

[Loopdan]

I'll have to finish tonight or tomorrow.

[Loopdan]

But like I said I do know which setup we're in

if

Char is telling the truth.

I'm rather interested in Norska claiming what roles he isn't. If he's town and he's telling the truth then

I

know he

must

be a VT.

Only I

know that. If I were scum my scumbuddy would know that. I'm not, I'm town, and I'm the only person who knows what setup we're in.

You pulled this from the scum PT, eh?

[Loopdan]

End of Day 1

If I had to bet I'd say scum is Accountant/Norsk.
It is much much more likely that Charl is actually the doc than scum that got lucky on a fake-claim, so I'm treating him as confTown.
I want to say Tweet is town, but her prior game makes me super suspicious.
Manuel is a slight scum-lean.
thatsit is null and has been kind of forgettable.

I'll read up on Day 2 and post any changes to the above.

[Loopdan]

All caught up.

Accountant looks more town Day 2. There's some diverse questioning and scum-hunting going on. My only concern is Accountant hasn't done any heavy tunneling this game. Not sure if that's a scum!Accountant trait or just a lack of conviction on scumreads. Partway through page 28 I wrote in my notes "Norska/thatsit FTW."

VOTE: Norska

Norska is more concerned with being viewed a certain way than in actually finding scum.

Thatsit is newbscum that won't enter the pasture for fear of stepping into something he can't scrape off his boots.

[Loopdan]

I want to say Tweet is town, but her prior game makes me super suspicious.

Why does Tweet's prior game make her suspicious? I don't understand?

She has a higher level of skill than a typical newbie, and is apparently pretty good at being town-read as scum.

[Loopdan]

It's weird that you highlight my lack of tunnelling as a possible area of concern(presumably treating it as a meta scumtell) but townread me for being more diverse in my scumbunting D2 - ie. townreading me for lack of tunnelling. Can you explain this discrepancy?

scum-hunting =/= tunneling

For the record, I have no idea if lack of tunneling is a scumtell for you, or not. I only know that I've seen you tunnel as town.

[Loopdan]

I agree.

[Loopdan]

Probably a bad word choice. Replace "suspicious" with "wary."

I want to say Tweet is town, but her prior game makes me super wary.

[Loopdan]

Here are my Norska notes:

Page 4 - Norska votes then unvotes Charl and seems real concerned with how others view his play
157- Norska apologizes for playing scummy. Gives out TRs to Acct and Transc (don’t like)
201- norsk votes Charl- seems ok reasoning
202- Charl’s reads (norsk=scum)
204- Charl votes Norsk
207- Norsk looks scuuuuumy - so concerned with how others view him
212- Norsk has Tran as strong town
260- Norsk with decent explanation of TR on Tran (his best post so far)
564- Norsk drops in to V/LA in the middle of Misa wagon drama ←SCUMMY!
611- Charl says if Misa flips town to look at Norska
653- Tran reads: one scum in (tweet, Acct) one scum in (norsk, charl)
656- Tran votes Norsk
661- Ding! Scumpost from Norsk
680- Norska talks about reading his own iso, and “not confident on any of my reads at the moment” ← SCUM!
683- Norska reluctantly says thatsit and Manuel are SRs
714- Norska just wants to be liked

I have much more confidence in this read than my second scum-read (thatsit).

[Loopdan]

zzzzzzzzzz

[Loopdan]

Spoiler: Opinions about/Questions for Loopdan's Norska case

(Minus your notes on Transcend and Charloux's reads + towny Norska posts)

157- Norska apologizes for playing scummy. Gives out TRs to Acct and Transc (don’t like)

Do you think town!Norska would townread different players?

I think it is likely that newbscum would give TRs to the two most experienced players in an attempt to keep them off his back.

207- Norsk looks scuuuuumy - so concerned with how others view him

Are you sure he's scummily concerned about how others view him? What possible motivation would scum!Norska have for saying:

"I'll possibly survive today, but I'm being read as scum be pretty much everyone."

,

"Better as in safer. If Char gets lynched, it won't be directly my fault. Cowardly yes, but cowards live longer."

Those are two snippets from a post that overall is more concerned with being TR than finding scum.

564- Norsk drops in to V/LA in the middle of Misa wagon drama ←SCUMMY!

I'm gonna have to disagree on that one. Frequent V/LA's? Sure, I could see that. This particular V/LA however I'm almost certain was not scum-motivated, even if Norska's scum.

Maybe not. But why not comment at all on the Misa wagon when posting the V/LA?

661- Ding! Scumpost from Norsk

Again with the Transcend/Accountant townread thing.

661 is bad because it's his first post in Day 2 and it's entire purpose is to say "oops my reads are just bad I'm not scum."

680- Norska talks about reading his own iso, and “not confident on any of my reads at the moment” ← SCUM!

Yes, he could be keeping his options open to aid a scum agenda. Doesn't scream scum to me, he's definitely shown that he's not very opinionated so far throughout this game.

683- Norska reluctantly says thatsit and Manuel are SRs

See above.

714- Norska just wants to be liked

Not sure how this post differs from his apologetic posting thus far.

After 11 pages...

scum= charl, Manuel (maybe norsk)
town= thatsit
no idea on Acct or Tweet

Why did you stop to explain your reads here?

Accountant may be partially referring to this about ignoring Manuel, in case you missed it Loop.

I was posting reads as I went along, trying to do it every five pages or so if they had changed. They are just copied and pasted from my notes.

I've replied to your spoilered questions above.

[Loopdan]

@Norska-- I included all my notes on your slot. So not everything there implicates you as scum (ex 212 & 260). I'll reply with more detail when I'm at a computer.

[Loopdan]

Intend to hammer thatsit

But I'm in no hurry.

@Norska-- Why aren't you already voting your top scum-read?

[Loopdan]

157- Norska apologizes for playing scummy. Gives out TRs to Acct and Transc (don’t like)

I apologise a lot. I still stand by my read on Acc. Why don't you like my TR on Transcend? Aren't you Transcend?

Yes, I replaced Transcend. As I read, it jumped out to me that you, a newer player, gave the two most experienced players a TR. I think newbtown is usually more cautious in reading experienced players as town. It isn't a huge deal, but it jumped out enough for me to make a note.

212- Norsk has Tran as strong town
260- Norsk with decent explanation of TR on Tran (his best post so far)

Surely 260 explains 212? If my best post so far makes you think I'm scum then I clearly have a lot to learn.

Like I said before, these are all my notes on your slot, copied and pasted directly into a post (with [post] tags added). So there are likely to be town indicators in there, as well.

714- Norska just wants to be liked

Correct. Whats your point?

You should be more concerned with finding and lynching scum than being liked by the other players.

[Loopdan]

Not sure what to make of Norska now. 783 seems pretty transparent, and JR says he isn't scum.

A thatsit flip would help info-wise. If he flips scum then I think it's likely there's scum in (Norska, Tweet).

[Loopdan]

...then likely one scum in (Acct, Manuel).

Though I think that's quite a bit weaker than what we get if he flips scum.

[Loopdan]

I will hammer thatsit after bork's deadline for providing an end-date to his V/LA.

@thatsit-- If you log-in to give an end-date, please also post your final reads.

[Loopdan]

@MT-- You believe Accountant is likely scum regardless of how thatsit flips.

So why aren't you pushing a lynch on Accountant?

[Loopdan]

I , for one, don't think it's a great idea for everyone to post full reads at the request of the player who is likely being lynched and hasn't caught up yet.

[Loopdan]

V/LA this weekend, but I'll stop by tonight to hammer.

@ThinkBig-- Please provide full reads.

[Loopdan]

VOTE: ThinkBig

[Loopdan]

^That explanation is unnecessary and looks like an attempt at selling a narrative. Now you can come back and tell us who is scum based on who JaeReed was scum-reading. But you could have easily just done that in the same post instead of setting the stage. It's fake.

Accountant is alive in LyLo when no PR hunting needed to be done last night = Accountant is scum

[Loopdan]

I just want to vote Accountant. But I won't yet because I hate when a replacement comes in and doesn't effort the game like someone who has been in it from the start. So out of respect to the rest of you, I'll wait.

But that where I'm at.

[Loopdan]

I think it is likely that, given Accountant's skill level, a scum team with a RB would block doc and NK Acct. That's not a strong reason to scumread Acct, but it is part of it.

Manuel is my towniest read.

[Loopdan]

I didn't realize Jae was that experienced. I can see your point.

[Loopdan]

Accountant and Tweet are unlikely scum together.

When you get a chance, please break this down for me.

[Loopdan]

I don't have any kind of grasp on this game. I've read everything, taken notes, and still don't have any real solid reads. I think Accountant is most likely scum and Manuel most likely town, but those reads are not real strong.

If the rest of you want me to replace out so you can have someone more motivated in my slot, I will oblige. But I know that just slows the game down more, so I'm willing to stick it out, too, if you'd prefer.

[Loopdan]

I'll start with Accountant. From my notes:

333 - Acct doesn’t comment on WCSBO’s soft cop claim?
358 - Acct TRs Tran and tweet, which kinda looks convenient
379 - Accountant finally tells WCSBO to stop discussing this. Waaay too late.
492 - Acct puts Misa at L-1 and is (acts?) surprised that he didn’t already have a vote down.
509 - Transc says Acct is giving heebie jeebies. I agree!
571 - Acct doesn’t see Misa as town. Still wants the lynch. How does Acct not see Misa is town at this point?
596 - Acct complains he is SCFWR
622 - Acct acting(?) like he doesn’t know WCSBO is cop

It did get better after this...
659 - Acct’s towniest post this game
Page 27 Acct is turning on the scum-hunting
675 - Manuel looking town
676 - Acct. agrees

My earlier suspicions coupled with survival make me pretty suspicious of Accountant. I've also not seen Accountant tunneling here, which I've seen before from town!Accountant.

[Loopdan]

@MT-- I'll get on my laptop sometime today and do the Manuel write-up.

SCFWR is "scum caught for wrong reason." But that's a tell I've seen backfire, so I'm not giving it much weight. Keep in mind those are my notes on Accountant's posts, not an attempt at presenting an airtight case.

[Loopdan]

Looking at it now it's only SCFWR if I presuppose you are scum, which I was reading you as when I read that post.

[Loopdan]

My notes on Manuel are sparse. I think I got to town!Manuel based on lack of questionable posts and POE. Sorry, Tweet. I know you'd like more than that.

Gun to my head, the scum-team is Accoutant/Norska.

[Loopdan]

@Accountant-- I admit my reasons for reading you as scum aren't great. I think I've been clear that it isn't a very strong read, but it's the best I have. I welcome your attempt to convince me that someone else if scummier.

[Loopdan]

Gun to my head, the scum-team is Accoutant/Norska.

[Loopdan]

VOTE: Norska

I'm ready.

[Loopdan]

UNVOTE:

[Loopdan]

I might have a moment or two to check in on this, but I'm essentially

V/LA until December 26

[Loopdan]

@loopdan: what changed between

Not sure what to make of Norska now. 783 seems pretty transparent, and JR says he isn't scum.

A thatsit flip would help info-wise. If he flips scum then I think it's likely there's scum in (Norska, Tweet).

and

VOTE: Norska
I'm ready.

I don't remember specifically, other than I did some re-reading.

Also, were you keeping an eye on the thread when you'd voted, or did you just pop back in a few hours later to unvote?

I was watching the entire time.

[Loopdan]

1) casting a potentially game ending vote in LYLO means you're pretty sure. What made you that sure? It's surprising that you can't remember why your opinion changed on what should have been a really important vote.
2) what made you unvote, given the lack of anyone doing anything with the vote you'd made?

Were you just leaving and couldn't keep an eye on things?

Something else?

1) If it's important I can go back and check my notes when I'm on my laptop. But I'm on a mini-vacation for the next day and a half so it'll have to wait.

2) The bolded part. I was testing the waters.

[Loopdan]

I , for one, don't think it's a great idea for everyone to post full reads at the request of the player who is likely being lynched and hasn't caught up yet.

Why exactly shouldn't people have done this? This seems like a perfectly fine thing for people to do, all the more so given the chance that the wagon was a mislynch (which it turned out to be). Why discourage this?

Town rarely has any info advantage over scum. If you think someone is scum why give up full reads for them to work with? There's a time for transparency, but that wasn't it.

[Loopdan]

I'm back but don't really have anything to say until I see mhsmith's final reads.

[Loopdan]

Here I am not hammering

[Loopdan]

Or you.

any chance of an unvote here?

[Loopdan]

Votecount 3.13

[2] Accountant (Morning Tweet, mhsmith0)
[1] mhsmith0 (Accountant)
[1] Morning Tweet (Manuel87)

[1] Not Voting (Loopdan)

With 5 alive, it is 3 to lynch.

The scum-team is one of:
Acct/MT
Acct/Manuel
MT/mhs

Which makes me want to vote MT, but an Acct/Manuel team would know that and put a vote there wouldn't they?

[Loopdan]

Votecount 3.13

[2] Accountant (Morning Tweet, mhsmith0)
[1] mhsmith0 (Accountant)
[1] Morning Tweet (Manuel87)

[1] Not Voting (Loopdan)

With 5 alive, it is 3 to lynch.

The scum-team is one of:
Acct/MT
Acct/Manuel
MT/mhs

Which makes me want to vote MT, but an Acct/Manuel team would know that and put a vote there wouldn't they?

Why does that make you want to vote me?
Am I a higher scumread than Accountant now?

Because Manuel is my strongest TR.

[Loopdan]

I'm here.
I'll hammer either Accountant or Tweet in the next couple hours.

[Loopdan]

Going through ISO's and VC, and MT/mhsmith(Norska) makes the most sense.

VOTE: Morning Tweet

[Loopdan]

Damnit.

GG scum.

[Loopdan]

Ballsy move by manny to vote tweet there btw when bussing would have been so much easier.

Especially when it looked like I was going to be voting Accountant. Yeah, that threw me off the scum-team.