Newbie 1756: Balloon (Game Over)


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Post Post #950 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 9:59 am

Post by Manuel87 »

@borkjerfkin: can we extend the deadline for 1 or 2 days for the replacement?
i wont be able to read much during the christmas days and want to wait for his respons before voting.
i would also like to go V/LA for the next 3 days as i will be visiting my family.
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Post Post #951 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 2:12 pm

Post by Morning Tweet »

Spoiler: Manuel
In post 949, Manuel87 wrote:
In post 946, Morning Tweet wrote:
That is misinterpreting the case and my point entirely. Accountant says he thought he was already voting Misa. You don't believe it, that's fair enough but you never explain why. My point is you're using the possibility that Accountant was pushing Misa but hoping no one would notice he's not voting her as a REASON to scumread Accountant. There really is no point in bringing it up at all, it's NAI.
So instead of answering my question you throw shade at me by saying i am misrepresenting your case.
Did i ever say i am 100% sure he is lying? I said there is a possibility he didnt vote on purpose.
If what he says is true or not is something that cant be proven but the fact is he did it so i will consider the possibility he did it on purpose.
I brought this up to show how more than half your case isn't even a case. Of the four parts I quoted (), only one was actually building your argument. There is absolutely no reason to bring up that possibility unless you can explain why you think it is likely that he lied.

In post 946, Morning Tweet wrote:
Did I say I believe it? Have I not made it clear that my point is your case sounds fake to me? You're either distancing from Accountant or (originally) trying to win Loopdan and I over to vote Accountant.
You say it is NAI yet you think he could be lying? You contradict yourself.
If he's town he isn't lying, if he's scum he could be. How is that in any way indicative of alignment? You think he's lying, even though you don't have a reason for it and admit he possibly isn't lying. This makes up part your case and it's not helping it at all.

In post 946, Morning Tweet wrote:
You're assuming Accountant is abstaining on purpose, so this is a pretty pointless question.
Again not answering the question. Instead you say it is pointless because your answer would contradict your reasoning again.
I now realize you probably thought that was clever, but think about what you were asking. IF Accountant was purposefully abstaining from voting, would this indicate scum or town? Shouldn't you be giving reasons you think Accountant lied? There is no question in my mind that if Accountant lied about not knowing he voted Misa that'd be scummy. But that doesn't give me any basis at all to scumread Accountant. What's the point, then?

In post 946, Morning Tweet wrote:
Did you miss this? You could at least say you don't believe me.
I explained that you still had a scumread on him further down in the post. But your answer to this was cutting my quote so it looks more convenient for your argument.
I do not recall messing with your quote aside from enlarging a word. You'll have to point it out, apologies if I did.

In post 946, Morning Tweet wrote:
In post 809, Morning Tweet wrote:UNVOTE:
No surprise counter-wagons from me. Jae is killing it right now imo
I think thatsit has the highest chance of being scum, but I'm having a bit of trouble reasoning who his partner is.

Manuel and Jae wouldn't be. I believe Norska is town regardless.
My Transcend/Loopdan read pretty much slipped away since the replace,
but so far I've disagreed with most of Loopdan's posting.
While I don't have much experience with meta reading, Transcend was demotivated to the point of replacing out. If that isn't something he'd do as scum I see no reason for him to fake it.
What the fuck

I said my scumread deteriorated and gave a reason to townread him. The actual hell?
You gave a reason to townread him IF thatsit is scum.
What does "I see no reason for Transcend to fake demotivation" have to do with thatsits alignment at all

Yet here is what you said in case thatsit is town.
In post 809, Morning Tweet wrote:UNVOTE:
What about a thatsit!town world? Again, Jae and Norska are town.
Which leaves Accountant, Manuel, and Loopdan. I'm most comfortable lynching Accountant in this scenario. Loopdan/Manuel feels unlikely, and I have a preference of Manuel/Accountant to Loopdan/Accountant.
I realize my reads (barring Accountant) are similar to JaeRead's. I ended up refraining from posting yesterday because I didn't feel like I was adding anything new. However with a lynch seemingly drawing near, I'm compelled to give my take on the game before we head into nighttime.
How is that townreading Loop?
Again, what the fuck? I said I did not like both scumteams with Loop in it. Just because I didn't repeat why I liked town!Transcend means the reason for liking him, which is unrelated to thatsits alignment, just vanishes?

In post 946, Morning Tweet wrote:
You probably missed the transition but it's understandable enough. Aside from that, this is your only valid question.

Early on in the game I gave thatsit a newb!town read. Later on I reevaluated when Accountant asked me why I townread thatsit and I couldn't explain why. He fell down to PoE the more and more I doubted my read. He didn't jump back in the game and do anything towny or scummy so he was a null PoE who could be scum with anyone.
So why did you never call intend or vote him when he was the most likely scum?
I believe it was Loopdan who called intent before I did.

In post 946, Morning Tweet wrote:
Back at it again throwing around meaningless arguments. I believe this was addressed to Loopdan, when I was inquiring about his Manuel read. Perhaps you could say what you find unreasonable about it, rather than jumping to the odd conclusion I would never give up my Norska read unless you're lynched.
No the way you worded what i quoted already says you arent giving up your Norska read unless i am confirmed town. There is no way to confirm that i am town unless i am lynched or nightkilled.
???
You don't actually believe that, do you? The phrase "If Manuel is town" sounds like I need to lynch you to believe you're town?

In post 946, Morning Tweet wrote:
You've changed from "You aren't explaining" to "No one can understand you". Elaborate why my Norska read is incomprehensible? I not once said I read him as town because he was helpful. Do you think it is essential to a townread that the one being read is protown?
How do those 2 arguments not work together? You arent explaining your townread on a person everyone else is reading scum.
I think it is essential to be protown to be townread yes. I dont townread ppl for trying to stay alive.
After I explained it you changed it to "No one can understand you." You don't think I explained at all, but no one can understand my explanation that supposedly doesn't exist?
In post 944, Manuel87 wrote:Yet you keeping a hard townread on this slot without any way to explain it so ppl can understand.
:/
In post 946, Morning Tweet wrote:
I had an open mind, I was considering Accountant/Norska as the most likely alternative. But you're correct, I am fairly sure I need to vote with Loopdan.
Yesterday you said Norska is town no matter how thatsit flips. Please show me where you actually considered scum!Norska.
I thought about Norska/Accountant the most, but to get behind that I'd need reasons for Manuel to be town. You may recall I asked questions at least three times before giving my thoughts? Loopdan didn't have any substantial reason to townread you other than "lack of questionable posts and PoE".
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Post Post #952 (ISO) » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:43 pm

Post by Accountant »

@Manuel: Bork already said an extension will be granted.

I'll hold off the Norska vote until the replacement comes in.
There's nothing that says that a fake can't beat the real thing.

You must not imagine that for beings like you and us there can be laughter. The low men laugh, and we envy them. But for us, the higher ones, there is no laughter, only an unending vigil, purely serious, stretching on into the night.
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Post Post #953 (ISO) » Sat Dec 24, 2016 5:03 am

Post by Loopdan »

I might have a moment or two to check in on this, but I'm essentially
V/LA until December 26
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Post Post #954 (ISO) » Sun Dec 25, 2016 6:33 am

Post by borkjerfkin »

No luck with replacement yet. Deadline is frozen atm. Enjoy the day :)
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Post Post #955 (ISO) » Sun Dec 25, 2016 12:15 pm

Post by Accountant »

Anyone want to play tic tac toe while we wait?

- - -
- x -
- - -
There's nothing that says that a fake can't beat the real thing.

You must not imagine that for beings like you and us there can be laughter. The low men laugh, and we envy them. But for us, the higher ones, there is no laughter, only an unending vigil, purely serious, stretching on into the night.
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Post Post #956 (ISO) » Sun Dec 25, 2016 7:24 pm

Post by borkjerfkin »

mhsmith0 replaces NorskaBlue
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Post Post #957 (ISO) » Sun Dec 25, 2016 7:24 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Greetings mortals
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #958 (ISO) » Sun Dec 25, 2016 7:25 pm

Post by borkjerfkin »

72 hours have been added to the deadline.
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Post Post #959 (ISO) » Sun Dec 25, 2016 7:30 pm

Post by Accountant »

Welcome mhsmith0!
There's nothing that says that a fake can't beat the real thing.

You must not imagine that for beings like you and us there can be laughter. The low men laugh, and we envy them. But for us, the higher ones, there is no laughter, only an unending vigil, purely serious, stretching on into the night.
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Post Post #960 (ISO) » Sun Dec 25, 2016 7:32 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Hey Accountant!
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #961 (ISO) » Sun Dec 25, 2016 7:34 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

@morningtweet: Given that there has been some discussion of your previous successful scum game, what would you say is the biggest difference between your play here and in that game?

@loopdan: what changed between
In post 792, Loopdan wrote:Not sure what to make of Norska now. seems pretty transparent, and JR says he isn't scum.

A thatsit flip would help info-wise. If he flips scum then I think it's likely there's scum in (Norska, Tweet).
and
In post 940, Loopdan wrote:VOTE: Norska

I'm ready.
Also, were you keeping an eye on the thread when you'd voted, or did you just pop back in a few hours later to unvote?
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #962 (ISO) » Sun Dec 25, 2016 7:43 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Also, can people who are scum-reading my slot bottom line the case? I'm curious what is there beyond "lurky lurker was lurking". Also...

1) Thoughts on the sub out?
2) The JaeReed shot seems to slightly argue against Norska as scum, given that JR could just be roleblocked anyway, and I'd think that Norska would be disinclined to shoot someone town-reading him, barring a buddy that JR suspected.

^see
In post 864, JaeReed wrote:No, but they do. Because as conftown you lack the perspective that is unique to having someone push on you. That's largely why I didn't give a shit in nahdia's mini normal where I should have, because I was new to being conftown and didn't realize exactly how much sway that gave me. I didn't realize how much it devalued my opinion to just sheep someone I thought was town.

It's hard being conftown. I can understand your frustration there too because I've been on the other fucking side as town where conftown hasn't paid attention at all and doesn't give a shit and it's like "why are you even in this game?!?!" but it's not something I feel is a valid complaint from you because you've seen it before. You know the mindset. If all it was is a complaint against that then fine but..urgh. It's something that is more to be addressed on a larger stage, sadly. And even then idunno that it would help :/

Norska, Accountant, never lynch
.
Accountant, I'm curious on your take there in particular given your first post of the day
In post 871, Accountant wrote:
It's LyLo. Please do not recklessly vote or the mafia might be able to quickhammer.


The night kill is extremely surprising to me. I'd have easily put down money that JaeReed lasted the night no matter what happened. Either they're scum, and will not die at night, or they're town, in which case scum has a roleblocker(since that's the only setup where cop and doctor both exist). In that case, scum has no reason to kill them, because they can simply roleblock Jae every night to prevent them from healing people, and keeping them alive gives mafia an easy target to push during LyLo, since many people will be suspicious of them.

The only reason, therefore, that I can think of for mafia to have killed JaeReed is that they were afraid JaeReed was onto them and would get them lynched in LyLo. I'm going to go check their ISO.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #963 (ISO) » Sun Dec 25, 2016 8:09 pm

Post by Accountant »

If JaeReed was killed, that definitely implies his scunreads are on the right track. It does not imply his townreads are on the right track. mh you know perfectly well that mafia often shoot people townreading them.
There's nothing that says that a fake can't beat the real thing.

You must not imagine that for beings like you and us there can be laughter. The low men laugh, and we envy them. But for us, the higher ones, there is no laughter, only an unending vigil, purely serious, stretching on into the night.
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Post Post #964 (ISO) » Sun Dec 25, 2016 8:16 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Newbscum (especially lurker newbscum) often shoot people townreading them? Like, I can see a case for Norska bowing to the will of his buddy, or maybe even just the idea that he might shoot JR just because it's a PR (and he'd know it was a true claim) but it strikes me as likelier that he'd prefer not to shoot there all things considered.

Also, if his scumreads were on the right track, that would imply his townreads were also on the right track? Like, in the case you were scum, I would say his town reads were not on track (1/2 off), and then by extension his scum reads were also not particularly on track? Or do you think that he had a read in particular that seemed likely to have spooked the scum?
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #965 (ISO) » Sun Dec 25, 2016 8:18 pm

Post by Accountant »

Lemme think for a bit about this and get back to you.
There's nothing that says that a fake can't beat the real thing.

You must not imagine that for beings like you and us there can be laughter. The low men laugh, and we envy them. But for us, the higher ones, there is no laughter, only an unending vigil, purely serious, stretching on into the night.
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Post Post #966 (ISO) » Sun Dec 25, 2016 8:21 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Basically, I'm struggling to connect the dots between

"The only reason, therefore, that I can think of for mafia to have killed JaeReed is that they were afraid JaeReed was onto them and would get them lynched in LyLo."
and
"Let's lynch JR's town read"

All the more so since JR's last post was
In post 866, JaeReed wrote:I'm not honestly 100% on thatsit scum but if he's not scum I want you to triple check tweet. I think her early game was good compared to her scumgame but that could potentially be the learning curve. I think she's more likely town and I do want the time to delve deeper using double isos and vca but if I don't get the chance I'm leaving it up to you.
and your proposed scum team (Norka/Tweet) included someone that JR was scum-reading as he died (admittedly I'm only looking right before the flip so i could be missing something important), and you stated logic of "JR must be on the right track"... and you're proposing to lynch his town read?

I guess my question is, what in your mind separates Norska from Tweet given those are your two stated top scum reads? Something would seem to be driving you to disregard JR's final push, which you'd indicated was something you considered important, but it's not clear what that something is.

edit: ok, no rush.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #967 (ISO) » Sun Dec 25, 2016 8:24 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

Spoiler: VC Data
Votecount 1.4

[3]
JaeReed
(Loopdan, Accountant, Morning Tweet)
[1] NorskaBlue (
WeCanSimplyBeOurselves
)
[1]
WeCanSimplyBeOurselves
(
ThinkBig
)
[1] Manuel87 (
JaeReed
)

[3] Not Voting (Manuel87,
MisaTange
, NorskaBlue)

Votecount 1.6

[3]
WeCanSimplyBeOurselves
(
ThinkBig
, Loopdan, Manuel87)
[2]
JaeReed
(Morning Tweet, NorskaBlue)
[1] NorskaBlue (
JaeReed
)
[1] Loopdan (
WeCanSimplyBeOurselves
)

[2] Not Voting (
MisaTange
, Accountant)

With 9 alive, it is 5 to lynch.

Votecount 1.7

[4]
WeCanSimplyBeOurselves
(
ThinkBig
, Loopdan, Manuel87,
MisaTange
)
[2]
JaeReed
(Morning Tweet, NorskaBlue)
[1] Accountant (
WeCanSimplyBeOurselves
)
[1] NorskaBlue (
JaeReed
)

[1] Not Voting (Accountant)

With 9 alive, it is 5 to lynch.

Votecount 1.9

[2]
MisaTange
(Loopdan,
WeCanSimplyBeOurselves
)
[2]
WeCanSimplyBeOurselves
(
ThinkBig
,
MisaTange
)
[1] Manuel87 (Morning Tweet)
[1] Morning Tweet (Manuel87)
[1] NorskaBlue (
JaeReed
)

[2] Not Voting (Accountant, NorskaBlue)

With 9 alive, it is 5 to lynch.

Votecount 1.10

[3]
MisaTange
(Loopdan,
WeCanSimplyBeOurselves
, NorskaBlue)
[2]
WeCanSimplyBeOurselves
(
ThinkBig
,
MisaTange
)
[1] Morning Tweet (Manuel87)
[1] NorskaBlue (
JaeReed
)

[2] Not Voting (Accountant, Morning Tweet)

With 9 alive, it is 5 to lynch.

Votecount 1.11

[4]
MisaTange
(Loopdan,
WeCanSimplyBeOurselves
, NorskaBlue, Accountant)
[2]
WeCanSimplyBeOurselves
(
ThinkBig
,
MisaTange
)
[1] Morning Tweet (Manuel87)
[1] NorskaBlue (
JaeReed
)

[1] Not Voting (Morning Tweet)

With 9 alive, it is 5 to lynch.

Intermediate: Misa drops, Accountant up to L-1
[4] Accountant (Morning Tweet, Manuel87,
MisaTange
,
WeCanSimplyBeOurselves
)
[2]
MisaTange
(NorskaBlue, Accountant, )
[1] NorskaBlue (
JaeReed
)
[1]
WeCanSimplyBeOurselves
(
ThinkBig
)
Not voting: Loopdan


Votecount 1.13

[4]
MisaTange
(NorskaBlue, Accountant,
WeCanSimplyBeOurselves
, Loopdan)
[3] Accountant (Morning Tweet, Manuel87,
MisaTange
)
[1] NorskaBlue (
JaeReed
)
[1]
WeCanSimplyBeOurselves
(
ThinkBig
)

With 9 alive, it is 5 to lynch.

Votecount 1.14 (Final)

[5]
MisaTange
(NorskaBlue, Accountant,
WeCanSimplyBeOurselves
, Loopdan,
JaeReed
)
[3] Accountant (Morning Tweet, Manuel87,
MisaTange
)
[1]
WeCanSimplyBeOurselves
(
ThinkBig
)

With 9 alive, it is 5 to lynch.


Votecount 2.3

[2] Loopdan (Accountant, Morning Tweet)
[1] Accountant (Loopdan)

[4] Not Voting (
JaeReed
, Manuel87, NorskaBlue,
ThinkBig
)

With 7 alive, it is 4 to lynch.

Votecount 2.4

[2] Loopdan (Accountant, Morning Tweet)
[1]
ThinkBig
(Manuel87)

[4] Not Voting (
JaeReed
, NorskaBlue,
ThinkBig
, Loopdan)

With 7 alive, it is 4 to lynch.

Votecount 2.7

[3]
ThinkBig
(Manuel87,
JaeReed
, Accountant)
[1] Loopdan (Morning Tweet)
[1] NorskaBlue (Loopdan)

[2] Not Voting (NorskaBlue,
ThinkBig
)

With 7 alive, it is 4 to lynch.

Votecount 2.12

[2]
ThinkBig
(Accountant,
JaeReed
)
[1] NorskaBlue (Loopdan)

[4] Not Voting (NorskaBlue,
ThinkBig
, Morning Tweet, Manuel87)

With 7 alive, it is 4 to lynch.

Votecount 2.14 (Final)

[4]
ThinkBig
(Accountant,
JaeReed
, NorskaBlue, Loopdan)

[3] Not Voting (
ThinkBig
, Morning Tweet, Manuel87)

With 7 alive, it is 4 to lynch.


Please let me know if I missed anything of note.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #968 (ISO) » Sun Dec 25, 2016 9:13 pm

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 571, Accountant wrote:Someone explain why Misa is town - I don't see it. Acting jokey and casual does not make you town. Transcend, I think it's pretty clear that me not voting Misa was due to me not realizing I hadn't voted yet, rather than due to any real attempt to dodge the Misa wagon - my posts before were, I think, fairly obviously a prelude to a Misa vote, especially the one where I talk about my PoE reasoning.

@Manuel: It's weird to me that you've been hard scumreading Tweet for the last few pages, but immediately sheep her onto a wagon she doesn't even strongly believe in("who will go here?"). Please explain this discrepancy.
...
In post 608, Accountant wrote:Like, I can buy one person following their gut and switching votes from Misa to me, but 3-4 in a row, in rapid succession? I think at that point there's something not right going on there.

@WCS: Yes. I've stated my reasons for reading her as town and that hasn't changed.
Can you talk more about your thoughts on your d1 wagon? Voters 3/4 flipped town (d1/n1), and on d2 you seemed not especially interested in talking about that wagon, either in terms of the remaining voters (tweet/Manuel, at least in the context of their push on you) or the gamestate in general (why scum didn't hammer you or encourage your hammer, for instance). I'm curious both on your thought on that wagon in hindsight, as well as why you didn't think it something worth discussing in more depth d2.
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Post Post #969 (ISO) » Mon Dec 26, 2016 12:18 am

Post by Loopdan »

In post 961, mhsmith0 wrote:
@loopdan: what changed between
In post 792, Loopdan wrote:Not sure what to make of Norska now. seems pretty transparent, and JR says he isn't scum.

A thatsit flip would help info-wise. If he flips scum then I think it's likely there's scum in (Norska, Tweet).
and
In post 940, Loopdan wrote:VOTE: Norska
I'm ready.
I don't remember specifically, other than I did some re-reading.
In post 961, mhsmith0 wrote:Also, were you keeping an eye on the thread when you'd voted, or did you just pop back in a few hours later to unvote?
I was watching the entire time.
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Post Post #970 (ISO) » Mon Dec 26, 2016 6:42 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

1) casting a potentially game ending vote in LYLO means you're pretty sure. What made you that sure? It's surprising that you can't remember why your opinion changed on what should have been a really important vote.
2) what made you unvote, given the lack of anyone doing anything with the vote you'd made? Were you just leaving and couldn't keep an eye on things? Something else?
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Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #971 (ISO) » Mon Dec 26, 2016 6:47 am

Post by Accountant »

In post 968, mhsmith0 wrote:Can you talk more about your thoughts on your d1 wagon? Voters 3/4 flipped town (d1/n1), and on d2 you seemed not especially interested in talking about that wagon, either in terms of the remaining voters (tweet/Manuel, at least in the context of their push on you) or the gamestate in general (why scum didn't hammer you or encourage your hammer, for instance). I'm curious both on your thought on that wagon in hindsight, as well as why you didn't think it something worth discussing in more depth d2.
I generally don't do wagon analysis. I have no idea what the heck was going on with that wagon, nor why it gained steam so quickly(the stated reasoning was literally "who will go here?"). My best guess as to why I wasn't hammered was that scum didn't want to catch flak for hammering the IC - or for starting a very obvious counterwagon that's also frivolous in nature. This fits in with scum!Tweet and scum!Manuel both.
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Post Post #972 (ISO) » Mon Dec 26, 2016 7:18 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

I'm still confused, though, why this wasn't a worthy topic of discussion day 2. Not wanting to do wagon anlysis is fine (I still consider it a useful tool, though I get that many don't), but I don't really understand why you wouldn't be more suspicious of the people who pushed your wagon in that spot, demanded they explain the push, etc. Can you point to another instance where, as vanilla town, you were wagoned basically on air (if I read you right) and then just kinda stopped really worrying about the people who were pushing you?

Also, if you're town you have the somewhat unique perspective of knowing that every single wagon that hit 3+ votes all game was on town, which suggests that this town has been disastrously ineffective even by "LYLO on day 3" standards. What, if anything, does that suggest to you?
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
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Post Post #973 (ISO) » Mon Dec 26, 2016 7:29 am

Post by mhsmith0 »

In post 474, Accountant wrote:
In post 473, Morning Tweet wrote:Manuel v. Tweet is TvT.
Manuel is town because I think scum!Manuel would sit on a lurker rather than push you. You're town for the same reasons Transcend is - you've been making consistently solid posts and your thought process is clear and I think oriented towards trying to identify and lynch scum. While it's not to say that scum can't make solid posts, I think it's much harder for scum to fake that kind of mindset. Scum trying to look town usually make posts that look good on the surface but that don't contribute much to actual scumhunting, but I didn't get the impression at your posts are shallow.

Furthermore, the easy way in which everyone else seems to be letting you two fight or focusing on your fight seems to me to be a sign of either apathy or scum who is more than happy to let two town members go at each other tooth and nail. In particular I think townies would try to push their own scumreads rather than try to make the decision into a false dichotomy of Manuel vs Tweet. This is why Misa's lack of scumreads is very concerning to me - I think she doesn't have any so she can go "well, I don't have anyone to push, so I'll just pick between Manuel and Tweet".
I guess this is at least a partial explanation of it if your TRs there were sufficiently strong to make you believe on d2 that you really did get wagoned entirely by town and then not hammered by scum or derp town. That's a weird as hell game state though.
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Conq: you, sir, are great at being town.
BATMAN: Only jugg was the only one we didn’t scum read at least not me
Quick: There is little to no chance this slot is Power-Wolfing.
SR: I want to give him a day
Life is simply unfair, don't you think?
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Post Post #974 (ISO) » Mon Dec 26, 2016 7:33 am

Post by Accountant »

Because the wagon kind of dropped quickly after it started and I'm not sure whether it's alignment indicative at all. The main concern I had(which I noted in the wagon callout post) was that it was a counterwagon to Misa(hence me calling for justifications from the people who inexplicably unvoted Misa to vote me). Obviously it wasn't. So what should I be suspecting people on the wagon for? Trying to lynch the IC? I didn't see any significant attempts to rope me after I called out the wagon for being dumb, and I think scum could have manufactured better reasoning if it was a serious attempt to kill me. In general scum prefer to shoot someone over getting them mislynched.

I did have some strong TRs on Manuel and Tweet at the time(less strong now). That coupled with my explanation above as to why the wagon wasn't inherently scummy means that it's more or less useless to search for scum there.
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You must not imagine that for beings like you and us there can be laughter. The low men laugh, and we envy them. But for us, the higher ones, there is no laughter, only an unending vigil, purely serious, stretching on into the night.
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