Mini 2018 - American Presidents Mafia (Game Over)
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- stungun0404
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stungun0404 Mafia Scum
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In post 30, Keyser Söze wrote:Shoshin, put me out my misery: is this a reaction test?
These 2 posts are enough for me to officially townread Keyser Soze. Clear town train-of-thought/progression to these 2 posts, I gather.In post 31, Keyser Söze wrote:Just trying to unpack Shoshin-skitter’s early reactions (or should I say OVERreaction): T/T, S/T, T/S
Probably too awkward for S/S.
Delighted to see us enter serious foreplay so soon though.
Let’s see what else i can gather...- stungun0404
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what are your thoughts on me, shoshin? you never provided them.
catching up as is with the other questions, but do address your feeling on me before asking and even inciting others to do so. otherwise, it just looks like you are trying to take advantage of a wagon forming on a me, which i feel only a scumplayer would have incentive to do. looks like you are doing the utmost in an attempt to “look town” right now
besides, i voted nauci, but i did not incite others to do the same.
@gemini:
i had a gut feeling naucy was being naughty. i wasn’t explicitly scumreading the slot per se, but nobody had voted for the slot yet and i couldn’t see a clear town motive peeking through their iso at their earlier content, so i laid a vote down there.In post 83, GeminiTwin12 wrote:What do you think of Shoshin / their interactions so far @Stungun0404 and what made you vote Naucy?
let me look into shoshin’s iso, though.
i will answer all other questions that were addressed to me momentarily.- stungun0404
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i’m still getting settled into this game, sorry folks. my town colors will show soon; didn’t expect this game to move as rapidly as it has.
In post 22, Shoshin wrote:Hey Skitter, why are you defending Math? Do you think he's town for that opening?In post 32, Shoshin wrote:Math's proposal obviously wasn't "serious," it's RVS, but that doesn't change the fact that his suggestion was pro-scum and that made it a decent place to vote to get discussion going.
I'm not sure what to make of Skitter's response. I find it a bit scummy that he'd jump on the obvious while refusing to admit that his comment defended Math. And his hostility towards my desire to build a wagon instead of splitting votes is odd.
I don’t like the transition here at all; shoshin goes from obsessing over skitter’s townread of mathdino to later asking what there isn’t to like about mathdino’s play; it seems like a very strange transition to make in a matter of hours with no explicit townread or townle on mathdino for the slot, so this makes its way onto my scumdar. These questions seem like their fishing for scummy responses to take advantage ofIn post 105, Shoshin wrote:
Too easy. What don't you like about Math? And what're your thoughts on Stun?In post 102, Nauci wrote:Serious vote though, VOTE: Gamma Emerald for 100% 4/4 fluff posting- stungun0404
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irrelephant: scum keyser making statements hypothesizing over t vs. s/ s vs. s this early on in the game regarding 2 players gets the pass through occam’s razor in my book, because i haven’t ever seen scum make statements like those in the rvs stage of a game; only town to my memory has made conclusions about both alignments that early on in the game.- stungun0404
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@gemini: nothing AI, it was an rvs vote used to obtain information, which i naturally do in games where i don’t have masses of info to go off to begin with like we did in the Greatest idea mafia game.
here, check my lynchpin game that i played immediately before it, https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=76401
you’ll see that i vote in rvs AS town to obtain information to use later. i got lynched d1 that game, unfortunately (with both scum on my lynch wagon). so scum like to take advantage of my townplay when i don’t have much info to go off of at the beginning of the game :-/
i’m a much better townplayer when i have info to go off of, like with the discards and the mason last game, and especially in a game like this after a lynch and a nk.
@BernieSanders: p-edit, i don’t want the same fate of getting lynched d1 as town that i suffered in that game.- stungun0404
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that’s fair shoshin, but you should at least wait one full day before pushing a case against me for contrast like that! i’m going to push forward a townlean on you for now because even though some of your interactions could have scummy intents, i’m thinking scum is lurking beyond your aggressive act. the way you are playing would be awfully gutsy for scum- stungun0404
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VOTE: Northsidegal. she blew right past me and the rest of town as scum in lynchpin mafia by largely lurking/staying in the background. i don’t reckon i want to see a repeat of that. i’d like to see her give some early gamereads. her content hasn’t really had much substance so far
questions coming for all- stungun0404
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OK, i will answer all these questions myself in addition to asking them, since it benefits town the best with me currently under voting pressure
@mathdino: between all the players with a vote on them currently aside from the one your voting for in bernie sanders, which wagon appeals the most to you? that is, between nsg, geminitwin12, gamma emerald, shoshin, momrangal, stungun0404 and invisibility.
my answer: aside from nsg, i’d be most prone to join the gemini wagon as of right now because i don’t have any sort of town vibe from her yet, and i shared a town mason with her last game i played. i feel like her questions might have an intent of stirring the pot—so that would be my official reasoning. i would like to see more AI content from her. haven’t gotten much of that yet. i want to give her a chance to give some gamereads first though, because she’s not one i want to gang up on yet. after all, she’s the main reason i decided to join this game (well along with invisibility playing and mwnn’s alt modding). but i can’t deny that something feels off from her content so far.
@nauci: between the lurkers (players with 10 or less posts so far), which one(s) do you feel are most likely to be pushing forward a town agenda as of now, and which one(s) a scum agenda?
my answer: i have to go with nsg for scum agenda, because not having much substance to her posts is why i couldn’t gather much of anything when she was scum in the game i played with her where i was town and she was scum. my answer would be gamma emerald on the basis of making an effort to townread (townleans already on skitter and keyser soze), and not yet pushing forward any scumreads. i don’t see that sort of effort so far from any of the other lurkers
p-edit: @irrelephant: i’m not all “lynch the lurkers” at all. i’m adamant about pushing more content out of the lurkers, which is a clear difference. this is how i always play d1 as town, because i’ve learned from the mistakes of not doing so (case in point: lynchpin mafia where nsg and creature lurked their way to victory). and anyways, scum have a serious tendency on d1 to stay in the background, and we cannot allow that to happen. I definitely don’t like that you are the one arguing against lynching all lurkers, when your content so far could be considered lurker all by itself (7 posts with several of them looking like they may be trying to spread doubt about the gamestate + no given townreads), so spreading doubt about that doesn’t really look good to me coming from your perspective. it’d be different if it was someone like shoshin or keyser soze saying this, but it’s not in this case. i also don’t see how you are reluctant to townread keyser, the evidence is there
more questions to come as i try to make some early predictions. power went out while making this post, so had to switch from ipad to mobile. good thing i had everything copied already.- stungun0404
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i really wanted to play with her. hope all is well on her end!- stungun0404
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it’s worth noting, actually, that gemini and i stated in a pm before this game that we were really looking forward to being the same faction again this game; so her replacing out might actually be a scum-indicative replace-out, especially with her doing it after she’s put under pressure for the first time. i prompted her to sign up for this game, and we were looking forward to playing with each other again.
but at the same time, this could also mean she’s got things going on irl, that she has general disinterest, or other things. so i want to give her replacement a chance first before i jump to any conclusions from this, but also want to throw it out there since i am town this game and had already sensed that she might be scum. sure enough, it’s a scumlean for me until further content develops, though
@irrelephant, who are you townreading? i would like to see you hard commit there, as you have yet to.
my answer: well, i’m already hard townreading keyser soze and shoshin, and i have voiced a slight town indication that needs further content to sort it out on gamma emerald. the last one is admittedly not a particularly strong read though, so i wouldn’t exactly trust it if i am lynched today and flip town, but i would trust the other two. also stated a gut townread on mathdino, another one i wouldn’t exactly trust, but my gut rules for now...
@skitter: what’s your reason to believe shoshin is scum playing super aggressively?
my answer: i have no reason to believe this myself, but would like to hear more about this. i definitely feel skitter is more likely of the 2 to be scum, because while they were aggressive, their gameplay so far is much easier imho for scum to duplicate.- stungun0404
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your content seems hard for scum to duplicate; little-to-no scum incentive for scum to play like you have so far, especially on d1. your aggressive act making a splash early on, your willingness to reconsider perspectives, etc.In post 192, Shoshin wrote:Stun, can you explain your transition from suspecting me to a townlean to hardtown?
i mean the list goes on and on, and it makes me question why would you be scum in this game? to which, i can’t gather an answer to
who can possibly townread momrangal right now? totally nai imho, and way too quick to jump to a townread there. convince me- stungun0404
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4 of those reads are fair, but what about momrangal’s 5 posts suggests town to you?In post 205, Irrelephant11 wrote:@stungun I like Shoshin, you, Bernie, Mom, and Mathdino for town so far, in that order. None of them are particularly strong because few players have said a ton. I was voting you for pressure because it seemed to rattle you, but the rattling had a towniness as it went on.
I feel like conventional wisdom says Keyser is playing in a towny way, but none of the things he’s saying actually feel genuine? To put it another way, his play fits in a town box, but almost seems too perfectly shaped for it. I’m not saying he’s scummy yet, just that I haven’t seen enough to sort.
Pedit: math what are you saying about me there?
same with shoshin, what about momrangal rings you as town?- stungun0404
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continuing with the questions to all. note that i will take note of anybody who dodges my questions but continues to lurk and produce little content, because that usually has more scum incentive than town incentive.
@momrangal: i see you answered shoshin’s question about having thoughts on players outside of invis, but you never addressed them, so can you address them now? particularly want to see townreads from you.
my answer: i have no answer, i think i have provided thoughts on just about everyone.
@shoshin: my question for you is above, why do you townread momrangal?
my answer: their content so far would be extremely easy for scum to hide behind and skate to a victory with if kept up, so i definitely can’t give them even a townlean yet.- stungun0404
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apologies for the wrong pronoun, skitter. i think it’s natural to assume someone’s a ‘he’ until, you know, they’re not.
but i will say i’m not feeling that you, skitter, are townreadable right now either. not seeing a clear pro-town focus to your above analysis, but i’ll give you time to settle in and analyze more to see if i can extrapolate that sort of focus from your analyses.
and fwiw, you can absolutely try to take advantage of a wagon forming on someone by digging them a hole they may have trouble getting out of, which can make them mislynchbait. i have already addressed that i’ve been mislynched in a recent game on d1, so that without a doubt does explain why i feel scum might try to take advantage of forming a wagon on me d1. plus, when i was mislynched, 2 of the 5 votes were scum, so naturally when i’m a potential mislynch i’m going to doubt those on my wagon- stungun0404
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@bernie sanders, do you have a past game where you were scum, and one that you were town in, that i can meta-reference to? i’m having a hard time developing a read on you for some reason; this would help me out a bit.
my thoughts: regarding you, a lot of your content reads to me as though it is contributing to an unnecessarily high amount of posts in this thread (essentially spamming) and is adding insubstantial bulk to the pages, neither of which give me clear town incentive, so the irrelevance/lack of clear pro-town focus of many of your posts is making it hard for me to develop a townread on you and making it harder to read the game in general because I feel like use up so much analytical power trying to develop reads from your content. further, i’m not quite convinced you’re scum either, because of a few train-of-thoughts you have pursued giving me a slight town indication, but they aren’t clear town indications. so, overall i’m very conflicted on you at the moment.
@invisibility, what’s your take on bernie sanders gameplay so far? you think he’s more likely to be scum or town?
my thoughts: i could see him being any alignment, but i’d have to lean towards town myself until i have serious reason to scumread him. so he’s a nulltown read for me, but my read is subject to change if granted further evidence.- stungun0404
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In post 301, skitter30 wrote:
This is what I'm liking about stungunIn post 285, skitter30 wrote:The most townie thing I'm seeing from you is that you keep referencing your mindset from this other towngame and are like drawing parralels from your play there to your play here.
this was a weird way to follow someone onto a townread, so i’m just noting it.In post 305, the worst wrote:I might kinda follow you on the Stungun read.
@theworst: how do you feel about nsg’s slot?
my take: i know nsg lurks as scum, so i am scumreading her until i get an indication that she is not lurking and is actively trying to help town. i feel she would be a solid wagon for pressuring right now.
@northsidegal, what do you feel differentiates your townplay from your scumplay?
my answer: having you self-reflect here because i’ve never witnessed your townplay, but i have seen your scumplay, and i want to know if you tend to lurk in your townplay like i know you do in your scumplay.- stungun0404
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is anybody else down to pressure nsg?
@irrelephant, i don’t very much fancy a keyser vote atm with the way all the votes are currently split. he has done enough things that register as a townfeel to me to successfully place him off my d1 lynch list. list off more things that give you a scummy vibe from him, if you feel so inclined, however- stungun0404
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It’s worth noting that all the playerlist has posted, so I’m not sure that’s a valid reason to delay posting something. Are you talking about until they post something substantial?In post 406, Keyser Söze wrote:
Can I answer this question when all the playerlist have posted.In post 402, Bernie Sanders wrote:Keyser if you put your sus on me aside for the moment who do you think is scum?
Because right now, “think is scum” may not be the right label. ‘Not town reading’ is more fitting.- stungun0404
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i’m starting to like skitter more
hot take: scum is among bernie, nsg, nauci, momrangal, and the worst
will vote momrangal or nauci if no one is willing to pressure nsg with me.
could see nauci-bernie sanders association both in this game and irl (i mean, hilary and bernie, hey!) possible scum team in this game? lots of fluff content referring to one another, so add that to the association booth.
bernie sanders, you seem to have dodged my question too, which considering you’re very highly active with a lot of fluff content, I can’t see much of a town motive. care to look back?- stungun0404
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eh, i want a clear majority on a player whose not given much substantial content (as in townreads and such), so i’m absolutely not passing up this opportunity.
VOTE: Momrangal
Momrangal is now at L-3, so this slot could only probably fit one more vote for our purposes as of right now, but absolutely no more than that.- stungun0404
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nsg’s a legit possibility too. everybody has at least 17 posts except her. she has 4 (-13 compared to everyone else)In post 490, Shoshin wrote:Alright, cool. So Nauci, Skitter, and the worst as scum? I think that makes the most sense at this point.- stungun0404
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The problem I’m having with both bernie sanders and skitter early on is that a lot of their content seems difficult to interpret a town motive to, and it’s difficult ascertaining that through the points they are pushing forward—like there’s nocleartown motive, which makes me feel uneasy. I need to iso and probably take about an hour apiece on the two of them to see what motives—if any—i can ascertain. both don’t seem to have a primarily pro-town focus, and that’s what gets me before i’d townread them officially.
Meanwhile, just looked through other nsg replace-outs to see if I could gather anything, and lo and behold I came across something suspicious. And given the circumstances, I dofeel confidentin asserting that one of the worst or nsg IS scum, because I feel there’s too much evidence between the two options that would support either replace-out being scum for themto be town. However, if one flips scum, I do find it highly unlikely the other flips scum, because having 2 scum replace-outs on d1 would surely be an outlier type of game. has anybody ever seen that happen?BOTH
Anyways, here’s what I happened upon, courtesy of another game she was in:
In post 2218, northsidegal wrote:wait, i just remembered that you were my scumbuddy in double elimination.
what are you even talking about then, bu? you of all people should know what i'm saying. i literallydid not post oncethat game becaues i was scum.
So apparently, nsg flakes out of some of her scum games, which is pretty damning. Leads me to think there’s a decent chance she’s scum this game.In post 2220, northsidegal wrote:you were also my buddy in open 716, which i flaked out of (the only game so far i've ever replaced out of).
what is your deal? you of all people shouldknowwhat i'm talking about.
UNVOTE: Momrangal.
Still a null read for me, but I don’t think this slot is official D1 lynch material, and I’m actually more wary of the people that were on her wagon (the worst, nsg, and skitter), so back to the drawing board. I’ll see if I can post reads here shortly on everybody and their mother.- stungun0404
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hadn’t gotten to the bottom of the player list yet. only keyser and you have gone unaddressed.In post 572, Gamma Emerald wrote:stungun have I missed any questions you've asked me? I haven't seen any.
anyways,
@keyser, since I’m having trouble with this myself, I’d like you to build opposing cases for a town—bernie sanders and a scum—bernie sanders and see which alignment adds up more to you. can you help me out with this? i’m gonna look into him when i have the chance myself.
hmm... @gamma, which of the replace-outs do you feel is more likely to flip town?
my answer: this is a double-edged sword, as neither slot has convinced me of anything even remotely pro-town, but probably nsg if i had to guess right now because of skitter’s abovementioned statement of her /out-ing for other games as well, which i hadn’t seen. seems plausible for a town case given the circumstancial evidence supporting it, and gemini’s replace out seems weird after we were looking forward to playing in the same faction in this game, and i am town, so it’s a possibility she didn’t like not being on a scum team without me on it as well, which we would have both enjoyed.- stungun0404
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still catching up. you guys bombard the thread every time i turn around... lmao.In post 676, Keyser Söze wrote:
(Surely you must think I’m scum though trying to pro-actively misslynch you or a townie with bad reasons to scumread you.. because you have refuted/argued every single point, and also noted I’ve grossly misrepresented you... and said my tone is fake..?) looks like you’re not being lynched D1 so I’ll have to re-look at my read of you D2In post 653, skitter30 wrote:I never classified you as townie with bad reads, and my read has since degraded from 'minor townlean' to 'idk how to sort this guy right now because I see a lot of concerning things even though I liked his very early game'; this morning we even had a convo about me not sure how to sort you, and I haven't expressed a change in my read of you since then. idk why you're asking me if I 'finally scumread you', or like why you're framing my read of you as 'scum who wants to mislynch me' given that I never said anything of the sort.
I also haven't said recently that I like your posts.
Honestly I dont know where you're getting most of this post from because very little of it reflects my stance on you.
Can you answer the 'is English ur first language' question please?
Yes, English is my first language.
that’s a possible scum-indication on skitter that I had not observed—re: consistently focusing on refuting a certain person’s points who looks town in an attempt to spread doubt/confusion. like, i sincerely don’t understand cases against keyser being scum right now—it’s much easier to assume he’s town this day phase. and plus, spreading doubt about highly townread players is something i’ve done as scum before, so i’m going to have to note your observation here, keyser.- stungun0404
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why is invis one of the best lynches today? not saying it’s a bad one or anythig, but curious as to your reasoningIn post 732, Bernie Sanders wrote:Granted all that said it is still possible I'm looking too much into this; I can see for ex: with my focus on TW and math an invisibility or maybe even momrangal scum (would be weird association though) skating by at this point
I don't really see the case for nauci and TBH it may be early to say but I'm feeling like besthusbandolynch today is probably going to be between TW and invis barring more information coming up
i just don’t see us getting much info atm regarding the gamestate from an invisibility flip myself, so i’ll pass on that for now, BUT I will be clear that invisibility does need to invest a little more effort in the game or they are a potential policy lynch, if nothing else.- stungun0404
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Let’s start here. Inherently a town train-of-thought. Why would scum ever start out by hypothesizing that a certain situation cannot be scum vs. scum? unless they are super adept at playing scum; that’s the only case i could see being made against that.In post 31, Keyser Söze wrote:Just trying to unpack Shoshin-skitter’s early reactions (or should I say OVERreaction): T/T, S/T, T/S
Probably too awkward for S/S.
Delighted to see us enter serious foreplay so soon though.
further, what motive does scum have for unpacking the alignments of BOTH players from the way they are overreacting in the thread?- stungun0404
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You have a fair point, Nauci, to focus on scum-hunting rather than using evidence to further support my townreads. Since my townreading is better on D1 than my scumreading, maybe I shall focus on sorting the candidates I’m not quite sold on the town-iness of.
like you, nauci, for instance (you’re a townlean right now); i’ll look at your iso to see if i see another solid town indication, because that would be what i need to pretty much clear you from being scum- stungun0404
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stungun0404 Mafia Scum
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Wait.In post 781, Irrelephant11 wrote:
This is a good pointIn post 780, stungun0404 wrote:Nauci is probably town. 749 discouraging any sort of town player from even crumbing a power role seems like a town-motivated push, not a scum-motivated push. I still need to see more from here, however, to upgrade my read on her.
Hm
You’re perceptive
A question that just occurred to me: if you do believe in the theoretical soundness of my point, then what is making you feel justified to keep your vote on nauci? especially when you already acknowledged in your 753 that naucy is sounding towny sometimes yourself. is this just a placeholder vote, then? because it’s bothering me right now how your vote is left there hanging.
VOTE: Irrelephant- stungun0404
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been deliberating over this for some time, but@mod: replace me. Also, can I choose to proxy to Keyser until I am replaced?
I really like the flavor of this game, so I’m ashamed I have to do this. If this was my only game, I’d be able to keep up with it, but it’s not. I have another account that I am also playing games on, and i got much going on irl. finding it extremely difficult and as sacrificing too much of my time to keep up with this thread and balance it with other games i’m in rn, but i will make a parting statement. I feel like there’s way too much thread spamming going on, whoever is town should really consider posting less content because there’s way too much unnecessary content being posted in the thread, and it can’t all be from scum. Further, the content is distracting from catching scum.
DEAR WHOEVER REPLACES ME: ONE MISSION; LOOK INTO WHO DIDN’T RESPOND TO MY QUESTIONS, PLEASE!
UNVOTE: Irrelephant
PS(parting statement): KEYSER IS TOWN NO MATTER WHAT; my strongest TR has never EVER been wrong regardless of my own alignment. It has resulted in me replacing into a game on N1 and correctly neighbouring a town player AFTER A D1 scum lynch, and taking full advantage of it to eventually win a game for town in LYLO, so you can trust this read with your life. There’s a definite chance shoshin is scum, but regarding keyser DON’T FALL FOR THE SHIT OTHERS ARE FEEDING YOU RE: HIS READ. SOMEBODY IS ACTIVELY TRYING TO PLANT SEEDS OF DOUBT HIM, AND IT’S WORKING TOO!
/legacy post- stungun0404
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stungun0404 Mafia Scum
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great job town @winning this! i followed this game fairly closely from the mod’s thread after replacing-out
a couple things for future reference
questions coming for all [/quote]
1). i’d never as scum question a townread on my partner. if i do it as town on a scumplayer, it’s for a defined reason. thus, it is safe to assume only town me would do that on a scumplayer, keyser was right about that.In post 281, stungun0404 wrote:
4 of those reads are fair, but what about momrangal’s 5 posts suggests town to you?In post 205, Irrelephant11 wrote:@stungun I like Shoshin, you, Bernie, Mom, and Mathdino for town so far, in that order. None of them are particularly strong because few players have said a ton. I was voting you for pressure because it seemed to rattle you, but the rattling had a towniness as it went on.
I feel like conventional wisdom says Keyser is playing in a towny way, but none of the things he’s saying actually feel genuine? To put it another way, his play fits in a town box, but almost seems too perfectly shaped for it. I’m not saying he’s scummy yet, just that I haven’t seen enough to sort.
Pedit: math what are you saying about me there?
same with shoshin, what about momrangal rings you as town?
2). i don’t usually bus hard as scum, that was a mistaken assumption and not one you want to promote; there were rare circumstances to that newbie game that made it necessary if i wanted to achieve my wincon.
3). next time i want to pressure nsg, please someone pressure nsg with me!In post 426, stungun0404 wrote:i’m starting to like skitter more
hot take: scum is among bernie, nsg, nauci, momrangal, and the worst
will vote momrangal or nauci if no one is willing to pressure nsg with me.
could see nauci-bernie sanders association both in this game and irl (i mean, hilary and bernie, hey!) possible scum team in this game? lots of fluff content referring to one another, so add that to the association booth.
bernie sanders, you seem to have dodged my question too, which considering you’re very highly active with a lot of fluff content, I can’t see much of a town motive. care to look back?
yay @ hot taking all 3 scum on d1, lol.
i think blackvoid played wonderfully overall. keyser was harder to mislead imo than irrelephant would have been ep, so i am curious about why ep chose to kill irrelephant over keyser. reverse psychology?
ep, your AtE’s were on fire though!- stungun0404
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i think you could improve your play by looking for what looks like town firstIn post 4031, Gustavo wrote:I need to seriously readjust what I find scummy but idk how
poe can be very effective, and stop you from tunneling on town. if you’d just followed my townreads, you would have been making more hay, even though you did not seem to want to
keyser and shoshin were both voted by you and my super confident townreads
i had a townlean on mathdino too if you looked back, a town indication on nauci, and a slight townlean on gamma emerald
so thus i do advise looking more for town hints and not scum hints, because then you’ll just get mired in finding scummy things from the players that post the most, and that’s a dangerous arena because the players that post the most are not necessarily the scummiest. lurkier players have a higher tendency of flipping scum from my experience, including this game where ep and momrangal were a bit lurkier overall, but not so much tw.
you really won’t find a ton of “gotcha” moments looking for scum solely and not town, but that’s just my advice. by poe’ing, you can focus more on the content of the players not in your PoE town pool, and notice if sth from them feels off.- stungun0404
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