Team Mafia 2020: Normal Game (Endgame)

[Xtoxm]

eenie
meenie
miney
VOTE: rc

[Xtoxm]

yours isnt much better

[Xtoxm]

*cough*
hey ducky
hows the scumhunting going?

[Xtoxm]

mm same

[Xtoxm]

nah i saw tw posting around site for like half hour beforehand was just waiting for him to come here to say hi
you just posted at an inconvenient time

[Xtoxm]

just vig him 4head
reeks of scum saving an easy lynch for later
how often do you get vigs in a mini normal

[Xtoxm]

What really scares people is not the artificial intelligence in the computer, but the natural intelligence they see in the mirror.

[Xtoxm]

What really scares people is not the artificial intelligence in the computer, but the natural intelligence they see in the mirror.

Do you have a post restriction?

yes

[Xtoxm]

remember shadowing a while back? I just thought of that for some reason.

please do elaborate, im intrigued

[Xtoxm]

interesting

[Xtoxm]

i want to hang out with you too duck <3
ideally i want to see the result of a cycle before taking a stance/trying to for a read on rc
if this game is stressing you out you could focus on your teammates games for a bit
thats what im doing and im enjoying tm a lot more that way

[Xtoxm]

hi bella
how are you finding team mafia

[Xtoxm]

Are we just waiting for tom at this point?

we're enjoying a brief moment of calm

[Xtoxm]

Let's see how this issue resolves before rushing anything

[Xtoxm]

Let's see how this issue resolves before rushing anything

I agree.

Anything else to say?

Not really.
Your take on me is correct tho, so good work on that.

[Xtoxm]

gonna be honest, haven't started reading those 40+ pages yet

but who in this game is AGAINST lynching the duck today? Or has openly spoken against his lynch?

hi

[Xtoxm]

ari was the only person to oppose the duck lynch in a significant way
he was also the proposed alternative lynch which is really low value for scum
+town equity

[Xtoxm]

implo:

v/la to 24th

[Xtoxm]

if you rise to the bait youve already lost rce

[Xtoxm]

Can you see if RC+Skitter is a viable thing? Or am I in left field?

nah youre good
i had this thought too when they started to 1v1 it looks like theatre

[Xtoxm]

ok

never saw skitter have more than 3 votes on her ever in my life tbh

here you go my dude
thats 4
VOTE: skitter

[Xtoxm]

I've never called Scum!Skitter town and vice versa fwiw.

i do value you and your teams reads.
i have no intention of ending the day any time soon so dont worry.
i think this is worth exploring tho.

[Xtoxm]

Your treatment of Math on these last pages is disgusting. A player that has you blacklisted got forced into the game with you. Stop and think about that for a moment. You recieved so many blacklists that the system failed. You are a gigantic asshole.

[Xtoxm]

Also, Math got forced into a game with RC because he replaced in, not because the system failed and not because RC is on that many blacklists (I dont know that he is or isnt, but assuming so based on bad data is simply bad.)

i was refering to myself there, not math.

gonna be very v/la for the next ~40hrs
see y'all in couple days
VOTE: unvote

[Xtoxm]

thanks ari. im trying to.
glad also u didnt get lynched on your first v/la and have had a chance to play.

I'm not interested in discussing blacklists further really.

i agree, just want to correct it

ok bye

[Xtoxm]

frequent vote movement isnt scummy
dk why ppl think it is

i'd be happy to support an {ico,math} driven wagon

[Xtoxm]

also shos
tell hito to fuck off
consider this the sum total of my response to his comments on me
tia

[Xtoxm]

get ico on board
you guys are split atm

[Xtoxm]

my own notes on rc, fwiw:

mortality: 1 night survived (caveat:no kill)
wolf pelts: 0
mislynches: 1
tone: n/a
post count: n/a
agenda: delete town!ec +scum equity

[Xtoxm]

im struggling to find ec's reads, is it #2358?

[Xtoxm]

dont think shos-rc is all that likely tbh, i think rc would somehow make things look cleaner between them?
idk

@Ico I really wanna townblock RCE

i think he'd be a solid pick up for you guys

p-ed
@math

[Xtoxm]

Xtox come back here I'm going to force you to talk and then vote rc

im notoriously difficult to force to talk

[Xtoxm]

Xtox come back here I'm going to force you to talk and then vote rc

im notoriously difficult to force to talk

Great, name your top townread and your top scumread as of right now

reads based, rce
but its gotta go to doc. ico

top sr- bella

[Xtoxm]

ari i havent been vla 90% wtf
i was vla for like a week and i dont think i even hit a prod timer
i wasnt vla at all on d1 either and was relatively active

[Xtoxm]

alright, thats fair

[Xtoxm]

you were already voting me

[Xtoxm]

flopz is the least scummy of the little timmys
hes new, never played with rc and doesnt know any better
unlike every other slot blanket townreading rc

[Xtoxm]

flopz, bella, skitter, ari

[Xtoxm]

the thing abt me looked initially bad, but i accept his explanation.
i have more experience with him than anyone here and he is outside of what ive observed to be his scumrange
ive been surprised already this tm but scum!rce isnt something i would look at til like, later

[Xtoxm]

what am i at

[Xtoxm]

mk
speedlynching doesnt help you know

[Xtoxm]

pine did say hes got some time and has started reading so if im not hammered soon may be able to give his perspective

[Xtoxm]

i do like initially like bellas claim
but theres also a scum motivation in putting doubt on ico/math in the universe their both town
so massclaim probably should be finished today
to lock scum into claims if nothing else
but like whatever.

[Xtoxm]

since someone asked who was in the hood with tris/saud slot- that was me

[Xtoxm]

nothing

[Xtoxm]

well saud wasnt in the game yet, it was tris, but she never actually posted there so your guess is as good as mine.
i posted once to acknowledge its existence.
saud didnt seem particularly..friendly to talk to.

[Xtoxm]

fwiw, i do feel better abt skitter in light of the 2 flips, teacher.

[Xtoxm]

im at l-1, math

[Xtoxm]

vt

[Xtoxm]

{ico, math, rce}
{skitter, teacher, ari, flopz}
{bella, shos}

i have some issues with bellas claim so pending the massclaim i'll see what that means for her/possibly rce.
my reads are not at all confident this game.

rc probably mentioned it first? i dont know. havent been reading everything

[Xtoxm]

Like I said not a set-up guy. Can I crowdsource this one? My instinct is Math's wrong, but Id like confirmation.

3-shot invest joat
n1-2 alien
simple doc
vts

vs
neighorizer

i dont think this is townsided at all. it looks a tad on the weak side of what i typically expect from the nrg.
im surprised there are so many vt claims, and now consider bella/ico town by setup spec

4 scum mini normals are extremely rare and town doesnt have nearly enough power claimed to justify it. thats bananas.

[Xtoxm]

{ico, math, rce}
{skitter, teacher, ari, flopz}
{bella, shos}

i have some issues with bellas claim so pending the massclaim i'll see what that means for her/possibly rce.
my reads are not at all confident this game.

rc probably mentioned it first? i dont know. havent been reading everything

Can you start responding to the most urgent matters at hand, mostly being Math going off the charts here?

Can you update your reads with your new information (bella town?)
Do you honestly scumread shos? If so, why?

Who's the scumteam according to you?

i consider the setup spec urgent since theres disagreement there.
math may be in cloud cuckoo land but hes my only ally here, i find it difficult to see him as scum.
math down (removal of pseudo clear)
rce down (acknowledge possibility of jailed kill)
teacher up - genuine looking solving attempts today

i do scumread shos, his approach to my slot yesterday was awful, and ive seen nothing today to change it.

im not at the stage of declaring a team

[Xtoxm]

Xtom, second or third time: what's wrong with my claim?

not trying to ignore you, my bad

they were:
ico-math soft clear had them both viewed near conftown by everyone, and is something scum would have incentive to remove, which your claim has done
claim n1-2 makes you functionally vanilla from here on out, which means you are not an attractive nk => gives you a reason to not be dying at night despite the pr claim

its moot now, since with the conclusion of massclaim, i trust your claim. i just thought i was seeing things that were super beneficial to scum.

[Xtoxm]

i think theres some merit to the traitor theory, it does explain me as target, and (imo) the setup we seem to have.
without the .. disloyal? modifier makes it difficult for scum to get much utility from it tho. but i guess regular nb is +options for scum

[Xtoxm]

i'll qualify that with in 10-3, jic.

[Xtoxm]

re:7214#

i thought it was pretty obvious rc wouldnt be lynched d2.
ppl townread him til endgame regardless of align, regardless of # mislynches.

[Xtoxm]

OH also, pine gave reads yesterday that i forgot to share.
he said he'd vote either shos or rce (he thinks either is fine and stated no preference)
he also said to be wary of ico gambitting (this was before massclaim was done, tho)
and that he liked skitter for town
there was no real elaboration on any of this

[Xtoxm]

um..i dont understand the question?

[Xtoxm]

you are one of power/big presence players, and iirc you were tr eod1 so i think you could have been the kill.
i wouldnt expect rce to be a common n1 nk pick.
i get the mechanical argument on rce. thing is, independently i tr him kinda hard.
given rc was town and they went for him n2 im surprised they wouldnt n1, but a foolish scum may have thought between duck + me that rc would be lynchable. sauds play does point to that in a way.

[Xtoxm]

i mean, anyone?
{you, tw, rc skitter} are players i expect to be likely nks as town, regardless who is scum

the mechanical argument would be a lot more convincing if ico didnt exist.
i have a decent amt of meta with him, and thus far the sack of potatoes scum meta has held true. hes not potating here.
i could be underestimating him
i can already see that hes gonna be lynched at some point over this

[Xtoxm]

wait, i thought you suspected those slots skitter
what happened?

[Xtoxm]

anyway teacher, your comment about you cant get rce above 40% got me thinking.

10 alive, lets remove bella/ico, 8 suspects. 2 scum => 25% odds of scum, or from a personal perspective, removing oneself, 28.5% (im not sure if its actually fair to do this)

youre framing it as:
math nk: 33%
rce nk: 33%
rce makes kill: 33%

so theres only a 4.5% chance above rand that rce is scum. not very significant right? wrong!

lets frame it another way.

12 slots alive n1. saud is known scum, so lets remove it from the nk pool, leaving 11.
remaining scum identities are unknown, so i think they have to be left in.

individual chance of each slot being nk is ~9.1%

math nk: 9.1%
rce nk: 9.1%
rce makes kill = sum over remaining 9 slots = 81.8%

when i think about it like this, theres no way to justify opposing the rce lynch bc of a tr.
81.8% is a massive improvement over rand.

i think this is the right way to model it, but i'd be interested in having my working proof read.
im more interested in the stats side than "player Y is 80% likely to be the nk bc i can read scums minds"

[Xtoxm]

on another note, re-checked my math read but still came back to thinking hes town
not interested at all in lynching math as the alternative to rce

[Xtoxm]

9.1%

no its the same error it relies on sayinf theres the same chance xtomx was killed as RC or you

there was not like i see 4 sensible N1s total - you (save) rce (save) skit (jk killer) rc (jk killer)

good for you all if you can make reads off of N1, but i camt in the current claim space

scum dont always make the expected kill
i wouldnt put any slot below, say, 5%
obviously i agree that, subjectively, some slots are more likely shots than others

@shos, thanks
looks like whatever errors i made ended up with a lower number than yours, and my main concern was being wrong in the other direction.

im on board now, holding off since ico asked.

[Xtoxm]

VOTE: rce
L-1

[Xtoxm]

Welp, sorry.

[Xtoxm]

Yes, when I ran the numbers and realised how much they pointed to rce I dropped the tr. Scum have been lifting their game across the board in this tm, and 8 favour night evidence over reads.

[Xtoxm]

i feel like lazy lynching shos because once again "this slot cannot be kept for lylo"

[Xtoxm]

bella kill is +++town equity for teacher btw

[Xtoxm]

im actually shocked shos is unaware massclaim already happened
and simultaneously wants to policy me for lack of interest/activity

[Xtoxm]

we're already right at the bottom end of town power if you compare to other normals
i think it means scum like having ico around, if anything

[Xtoxm]

Skitter stop prancing around like you own the thread. You are still a suspect.

[Xtoxm]

bella kill is +++town equity for teacher btw

explain?

Ico who’d you save?

math

bella was in teachers camp
it was one of the only stances she took yesterday iirc
scum!teacher could have killed you and gotten zero blowback for it, since you were the 'obvious' kill last night, in my mind

could i see your notes on flopz-locktown?
his name is coming up when i look for solves
id like to copy your homework

[Xtoxm]

That’s still never happening today. The only thing it changes is Ico, ya? Unless you doubt Ico for some reason?

I’m going to have some serious thoughts for the Town among the PoE pool at the end of the game. I purposefully took a step back for a coupla days to see who tried to work out a solve. But.....nope.

VOTE: ari

I think ari is only scumnif the team is exactly {shos, ari}
So I'm not really interested in this while shos is alive

[Xtoxm]

was hoping my team would help me with this one but its like blood from a stone
i'll just give my thoughts soon if that goes no where

[Xtoxm]

what the absolute nonsense are you talking about
we dont earn a mislynch by no lynching, a saved kill keeps the numbers the same

this nl push and its timing
is coming across as
ico is on you now, so its easier for you if theres a nl and ico is gone 2mo

[Xtoxm]

did your team mention anything about why they sr him, or who he might be scum with?

[Xtoxm]

ok. hes had enough chances.
my patience has officially expired
VOTE: shos
i see this is l-1 now but idrgas, im ready for this to eat rope

Do I have agreement that we NL today and choose the lynch of tomorrow?

absolutely not

[Xtoxm]

i specifically have avoided calling shos scum since early d3 to see how his read on me developed, and it hasnt at all. (aside one snark retort)
hes still chugging along calling me scum, and talking about policy lynching me.
failed to react to me being hooded
failed to acknowledge that my play has improved (compare to flopz in #7608 which is +town pts for flopz)
i took a backseat d1/2 to due rc, but since then ive been playing normally. hes the one doing less than me recently.
being slow to develop reads in response to changes in the game, or in this case failing entirely, is ++scum equity

[Xtoxm]

asked pine to check shos specifically too since im vulnerable to bias when im tunneled like this, but he supports me.
he said 'too bold to be scum' isnt a thing and scum have been playing up to it in site meta

[Xtoxm]

totally fair and expected
just expressing this is where i wanna be rn

[Xtoxm]

re: teach btw
i am totally fine w/ him and recommend trying to break the game on the assumption that hes town

[Xtoxm]

Enough chances? I don't recall you every actually asking me something about anything?

Why does you calling me scum have anything to do with my reads developing? au contraire actually, you didn't respond to anything at all and did not talk to me in the least; why would my opinion change? A development does not mean a change if you're scum lol

the point was not to interact, reset my read on you and see if you re-evaluated over a period of time as my play changed. it did not.

I did not fail to react on your hooding. I specifically said that I think it matters only if the said hooding has been noted BEFORE the flip. You simply choose to not read my posts.

weak reasoning to dismiss evidence that points to me being town. the only logical counter to it - which you have not mentioned at all as a reason for doubting me afaik - is that rce was nb'd and the alien blocked it. in which case scum!tox defends rce, not 180s his read to kill him and immediately open up the only hole of doubt.

Fail to acknowledge that you improved, lol. It's not like you've been extremely town, or anyone asked. You did post more, that doesn't make you town suddenly. Seems like anyone who calls you town gets town points? lol
And pleae do explain how being slow on reaction times makes anyone scum, lol.

not extremely town perhaps, but theres enough here to see that im town now. everyone elses reads have changed. you're literally the only person still calling me scum.

ive caught scum with this tell before
ie, having a slowroll/uni sr start (not intentionally, but out of circumstance), then becoming townie over time and seeing who gets caught with their pants down when sr-ing me is no longer reasonable.
and hes tripling down on it after being called out, which is exactly what scum!shosin did in that game (starcraft, if anyone cares)

[Xtoxm]

a word of advice, ico
you're extremely difficult to work with
a large part of this game is securing mutual townreads and working with them to solve the game
everyone townreads you. you have free pick. but you cant sustain a tr anywhere
anytime you tr someone theyre back in your poe soon enough
we cant work well with someone whos constantly coming back to suspicion on us, or at least i cant

look at the last 3 posts of bellas iso - attempting to work with teacher
this is why i believe she was killed over you, despite your high thread presence, and is the single strongest reason to tr teacher
your reads change like the wind and you're hard to follow, which is a lot less scary to scum than town who tr each other

[Xtoxm]

i checked and it was after.
not really sure what the difference there is tho?

[Xtoxm]

can someone tell me why they are townreading math and/or flopz plz

math:
-i like the moonlogic and deepwolf hunting
-i like what titus has been saying thru him
-tr me before the cool kids were doing it
-gut

also have respect for titus vca and dont think it should be dismissed out of hand. she was shouted down over her vca read on nacl for multiple days in the open.

[Xtoxm]

And yes quite frankly unless you believe RCE shot and Xtom neighborized I am still conf town based on N1

And if you do believe the former then use that as a starting spot and ask why Xtom neighborized by scum?

Assume I am scum then what do you learn about N1?

i have no idea what why scum may have chosen to neighborize xtoxm
but i'm assuming they didn't no-neighborize

so they either nk'd you and neighborized rce
or they nk'd rce and neighborized xtoxm

those are kinda the only two possibilities
or i guess technically rc could have been neighborized but i imagine he would have claimed that if that had been a thing

I'm sorry what?
This post lacks any sense of forethought.
Why are you discounting option 3: math nk, xtox NB'd
Suggesting the hood is fake and instead rc offers to be bopd on Saud without commenting that he knows Saudis role...are you listening to yourself?

[Xtoxm]

hope everything is ok flopz

1. This gives scum effective daytalk

hm, the rules actually dont specify

implo, do scum have daytalk?

[Xtoxm]

shos what did you mean about avoiding responsibility i think im not understanding there or something

[Xtoxm]

i didnt crumb anything, btw. it wasnt in my sphere of thought at the time at all.

[Xtoxm]

oh, i cant read lmao

[Xtoxm]

skitter what is your read on me?

[Xtoxm]

Defaulting to town but i dont like it

Whats ur read on me

town.
you feel 'normal' in the way you did in eg CB/SC1, but you havent gone obvtown mode like youre capable of, if that makes sense
ive been kinda paranoid to tr you in games, since ive still never seen your scum game, but i have the sense that its gonna be strong

[Xtoxm]

so thats functionally l-1
i dont understand the level of resistance to shos
wonder if that means something
hmmmmmm cant quite tell

[Xtoxm]

i think thats really solid, teach
i'll explain my viewpoint in a bit

[Xtoxm]

my thing is that he has anti buddy equity with everyone in the poe except shos.

{math, ari} - math pushed ari extremely hard on d1, for an extended period of time, and talked about using ari to bop rc. continued pushing him after rc disavowed the wagon.

Spoiler:

Mathb this play is manipulative. Don't try to reason with the seal, he ain't town

My goal is not to influence him.

He doesn’t listen to me.

However the more he doesn’t listen to reason the more people see what I see in Raybells.

He made his Ari scum bed.

Now we get a chance to evaluate Raybells based off it.

He can moan about it if he wants but it won’t change a thing.

Raybells isn’t the dictator of this game.

i will also say that this has done a remarkable job of warping the gamestate and i really think everyone needs to like ~calm down~ and that i'm going to be able to approach this with a clearer head after night, i think

and i think most people kinda feel the same way at this point

Hence why I want the focus on Ari.

We need a lynch that isn’t the drama of RC/tw to avoid stagnation.

{flopz, ari} - both at each others throats early game (pretty much instantly iirc). flopz made a vote on ari d1 that would have been likely to result in his death at the time

Spoiler:

If you’re not voting Ari people please vote Ari. Thank you!

What's he on "L"-wise?

No idea. I just know this shit needs to end and there hasn’t been a vote count in a while.

Pretty sure I have 4-5 votes on me.

7 to lynch.

Yh, that's what I was asking thanks. VOTE: Ari

{skitter, ari} - combined mislynch total of 2, tied lowest of alive pairings. this is weaker than the other two given low sample size, but mislynches tend not to happen without scum involvement.
leaves only {shos, ari}

for shos,
{math, shos} - i want to rule this out but its kinda moonlogicky.
other shos pairings i have nothing to rule out.

ari is only scum with shos. shos can be scum with people that aren't ari. so logically, shos is the better lynch.
assuming the solve is {shos, ari}, im more concerned about shos getting undue towncred from the ari scum lynch and endgaming, than vice versa.

[Xtoxm]

Welcome to the Ari-Trisaudade associative show.

iso diving this game is a goddamn pain
that was a noble effort

[Xtoxm]

So as you may remember I asked hito for his Ari/xtomx association reasoning. He answered.

1. a note about everything - this is all D1 information. Hito hasn't been following lately because he was sick. He's good now
2. The first KILL THIS WITH FIAR instance was post 2516. Hito found it extremel bad that xtomx wanted to wait the ari lynch in order to see how RC is going. So it looked like it was a way to put a damper regarding the ari wagon, while avoiding any commitment on an Ari read. Then came 2520 (same page). What did you expect from an RC solve to help you decide about ari? how was that related?
That might have made sense if the leading wagon was RC, but it wasn't - Ari was, and xtomx never mentioned him the entire game thus far. So...hard chainsaw.

Plum posted about that on 2525 (next page).

TLDR:
xtomx 2516 and the nearby posts seem like he's trying to slow down an ari wagon without actually calling it by name.




Not as full as I expected but well, he IS not a player so..

is that it?
i expected a good chuckle from you trying to case me but this is just pathetic.
rc suggested he may have to replace out, which would have dramatically altered my level of interest in the game.
hence 2516.
and, i feel thats kinda obvious? a number of players, including rc, have mentioned our history
youve brought up that same post like 4 different times now
the other post you reference (2520) wasnt made by me

[Xtoxm]

Wow Teacher, that was a lot more than I expected. I have no qualms with voting for Ari now. Might as well wait for his response to this before finishing him off.

I think this is the only thing being waited on? Someone correct me if I am wrong.

i believe thats correct.

[Xtoxm]

How exactly would shos get “towncred” from an Ari scum flip? If Ari flips red I am just probably gonna votepark shos.

ok good.
felt that way with how hard its been to get votes on shos today.
with the recent responses im less concerned now.

[Xtoxm]

If we're going to NL today, it needs to be with little to no discussion, so scum have the least information with which to thin the herd.

If significant discussion occurs, I will be withdrawing my support

.

Thank you.

VOTE: NL

[Xtoxm]

at the moment i think all scum is in {math/shos/flopz}

i'm glad you've identified me as town,
could you run me through what has changed since "leaning town but dont like it", to my seemingly locktown status in this post?

[Xtoxm]

@flopz
i'd like you to take a look at 7791
have you read this post before, and do you agree with the logical conclusion? (that necessarily there is one town is {xtox, math}
if no, could you explain why?

[Xtoxm]

is it just VC4.7 that tells you skitter scum, or is there more to it?
my own vca says 1 scum in {shos, flopz} and thats about it

[Xtoxm]

(1+)

[Xtoxm]

Can someone talk me through their thoughts regarding yesterday given Ari flipped town?

skitters actions hard shielded shos and were instrumental in moving things toward ari as opposed to shos
flopz ultimately helped him but had no effect on swinging momentum
overall, a worse look for skitter, but its a tough call

[Xtoxm]

@flopz
i'd like you to take a look at 7791
have you read this post before, and do you agree with the logical conclusion? (that necessarily there is one town is {xtox, math}
if no, could you explain why?

You basically, like math, ignore everything I say?

I read it and found it lacking. You said that scum neighbouring a buddy would allow them day talk, which was countered by the rule set. Since then you made no further comment on the topic and continued to push us both as scum.

[Xtoxm]

VOTE: MathBlade

[Xtoxm]

gg guys

[Xtoxm]

X was the math you used to justify the RCE lynch genuinely wrong or intentionally wrong?

any mistake is genuine i wasnt confident that i had it entirely right but it should be at least mostly right
its not wrong by design but certainly i put it out to help get a mislynch

[Xtoxm]

xtom I can't believe we didn't lynch you all game

Xtoxm living was straight madness XD

well you should have voted me then
im one of two players in the whole of tm that endgamed as scum and its going on my resume tyvm

[Xtoxm]

yeah people always ignore my sig XD
maybe that will start to change now