mini 2140: partition (this is over)
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First impressions: i feel that it is unlikely scum placed 2 of themselves in group 2, or 2 of themselves in group 3
That seems like a lot of risk, because at a glance you'd expect us to probably pick group 2 or 3 for the lynch, and it'd be hard to stop it if one of those groups gained traction. all it would take is one scummy member in the group and you'd lose that group and 2/3rds of the scumteam
Whereas if you placed 2+ scum inside group one, it'd likely be easier to steer the lynch away from one to one of the smaller groups. after all, there's at least 5 town in group one and im sure at least some of them would not want to die
I just realized while writing this that if we lynch group one, and there's zero scum in there, we lose the game immediately. ack!
That seems like a lot of risk, because at a glance you'd expect us to probably pick group 2 or 3 for the lynch, and it'd be hard to stop it if one of those groups gained traction. all it would take is one scummy member in the group and you'd lose that group and 2/3rds of the scumteam
Whereas if you placed 2+ scum inside group one, it'd likely be easier to steer the lynch away from one to one of the smaller groups. after all, there's at least 5 town in group one and im sure at least some of them would not want to die
I just realized while writing this that if we lynch group one, and there's zero scum in there, we lose the game immediately. ack!
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Oh.In post 21, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:Actually I just realized if there's exactly 0 or 1 scum in group 1 and we nuke that group today, then we'd also lose immediately because scum get a nightkill on the first night, leaving the game at 2-2 on day 2In post 13, Morning Tweet wrote:I just realized while writing this that if we lynch group one, and there's zero scum in there, we lose the game immediately. ack!
i was gonna say something like, "No way scum thought we'd lynch group 1, because we'd figure it's too risky. that's exactly why we should lynch group 1"
But if 1 scum in group one is also a loss, then :/
maybe it is too risky lol
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BUT if scum figured that we'd figure that, then they'd simply place all 3 scum (or at least 2) in group one. Cause of course we'd never pick group one
If i had to guess i would say there the most likely option is there's 2-3 scum in group one. But I could see scum possibly doing a 1/1/1 split and then pushing for a group one lynch in order to get a quick win, and at worst losing 1 member if group two or three is picked
What a bother!
If i had to guess i would say there the most likely option is there's 2-3 scum in group one. But I could see scum possibly doing a 1/1/1 split and then pushing for a group one lynch in order to get a quick win, and at worst losing 1 member if group two or three is picked
What a bother!
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There's a 95% chance there's 1+ scum in group one, since they can put a scum in there for free and still win if that group is lynched. i know it's not really the most surprising statement but i gotta start somewhere
The ONLY reason i can think of for putting 0 scum in group one, would be if they're playing a crazy trick and putting all scum in 2 and 3 to set themselves up for a long game using the towny status the group that we don't lynch of out two and three
what i mean:
The ONLY reason i can think of for putting 0 scum in group one, would be if they're playing a crazy trick and putting all scum in 2 and 3 to set themselves up for a long game using the towny status the group that we don't lynch of out two and three
what i mean:
Spoiler: If group one has 0 scum
So i think overall there should be 1+ scum in group one. The only thing holding me back from saying we nuke group one is the very real possibility scum puts just 1 member in group one to have a 1/3 shot at instantly winning the game. not a bad plan
so, where would the other 2 scum go most likely? aaa i dont know yet
so, where would the other 2 scum go most likely? aaa i dont know yet
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Spoiler: scum's options
I'm not sure if there's a way to determine which option scum would be most likely to pick. I don't know if the scumteam are gamblers or not. Personally i'd either go 1/1/1 and take the 1 in 3 shot at winning, or i'd put all 3 scum in group one knowing there's a super high chance of survival. all or nothing
therefore, i think it makes a lot of sense to try and find individuals we think have a higher likelihood of being scum or town (i think that's what enomis meant by "play normal"). Then we can use that to decide whether or not we should take the chance
so.... this has been me using long posts to determine really basic stuff that probably took other ppl 5 seconds to figure out. sorry about that (- ‿ - ;)
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oh i didnt consider that. hmm
so would they bank on us deciding that we never lynch group one, and place all 3 in there to guarantee their own safeties as long as group one is protected, or would they play it safe and put 2 scum in group one and 1 scum outside. if they play it safe with 2 scum in and 1 out, no matter what group we lynch, they're not hurt too bad and they might even have all 3 scum survive
I'm leaning towards the latter option, since 3 scum inside group one introduces them to the possibility of being totally wiped out for not a lot of gain over just having 2 scum in group one. I could also see 1/1/1 being a possibility to give them that bonus 1/3 shot at winning
So it's probably 2/1/0 or 1/1/1. And if it is one of these, then we either go to MYLO or lose the game entirely if we lynch group one. ugh
If there's less than 3 scum in group one, then we shouldn't lynch group one-- do i have that right? I'm not sure if 3v1 MYLO is something we want or don't want. but for what it's worth, i think 2 scum in group one is the most likely answer. That way, no matter what option we pick, they're not losing too bad
so would they bank on us deciding that we never lynch group one, and place all 3 in there to guarantee their own safeties as long as group one is protected, or would they play it safe and put 2 scum in group one and 1 scum outside. if they play it safe with 2 scum in and 1 out, no matter what group we lynch, they're not hurt too bad and they might even have all 3 scum survive
I'm leaning towards the latter option, since 3 scum inside group one introduces them to the possibility of being totally wiped out for not a lot of gain over just having 2 scum in group one. I could also see 1/1/1 being a possibility to give them that bonus 1/3 shot at winning
So it's probably 2/1/0 or 1/1/1. And if it is one of these, then we either go to MYLO or lose the game entirely if we lynch group one. ugh
If there's less than 3 scum in group one, then we shouldn't lynch group one-- do i have that right? I'm not sure if 3v1 MYLO is something we want or don't want. but for what it's worth, i think 2 scum in group one is the most likely answer. That way, no matter what option we pick, they're not losing too bad
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Well they lose one member, but if that member is in group one, they win the game
i dont think we can dismiss 1/1/1 just because it guarantees one mafia member dies. In 2/0/1 or 2/0/1, they run a decent risk of losing one member as well.
They can get a shot at actually winning in 1/1/1, and the worst that can happen is losing one member.
i dont think we can dismiss 1/1/1 just because it guarantees one mafia member dies. In 2/0/1 or 2/0/1, they run a decent risk of losing one member as well.
They can get a shot at actually winning in 1/1/1, and the worst that can happen is losing one member.
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it's 1v3, cuz scum gets a nightkill.In post 131, Albert B. Rampage wrote:Yeah 1v4 is manageable. Either way there's 2 scum in group 1 at minimum.In post 129, Morning Tweet wrote:They could, yeah, but i dont think that's the most likely option. Placing just 2 in group one minimizes the risk and gives them almost the same level of safety
Instead of losing if group one goes down, they get a MYLO. And if theres a lynch outside group one, they lose 0 or 1 scum for 2-3 townies
I agree that it's highly likely they put 2 scum in there. but if they put did 1 scum in there...
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In post 135, Daenerys and Dragons wrote:Morning Tweet needs to start scumhunting.
Spoiler: your wish is my command
no, i dont expect anyone to read that. i just worked thru the thread in this post rather than in my notes cause idk
You know, im sure somebody probably brought this up already, but if we figure out that there's 2 scum in group one, maybe we could wait for the next day and then target group one players. I guess scum could screw us with the partitions again though.
Spoiler: reads
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In post 152, Ame wrote:Tweet and Cat are always so townie. I'm paragon btw.
okay, only because u asked nicelyIn post 151, Ame wrote:Tweet, can I ask what your occupation is? Also do you happen to know your mbti personality type?
Spoiler: just for ame
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This doesn't really take into account that schadd probably didn't open the thread at the exact moment scum came to a consensus. i'd actually be pretty surprised if he didIn post 153, clidd wrote:Good afternoon,
I've been thinking on how to approach this game, especially due to the peculiarities of the setup. My conclusion was that I would need some time to work better on my impressions and shape my conjecture on the possible combinations in the distribution of groups before actively engaging with the playerlist. Something that caught my attention, however, was the time when the topic was released, because according to post 2, there were two conditions for the game to be released:
*Starting with 11/13 confirms.
*Mafia have a consensus about the d1 partition.
Therefore, by the time the topic was released, there was obviously already a confirmation of at least 11 players, as well as a collective consensus on partitions by the mafia. Considering that the confirmations had a period of 48 hours between the 10th and the 12th of May to be made, it is more plausible, in my opinion, that the margin of 11 players had been reached before the mafia consensus, which indicates that the release of the topic probably occurred as a result of the mafia decision, which implies that possibly the three members should be online during this period and, consequently, commented at some point in the first two pages. Evidently, this is a premature speculation, but I would like to share this observation because I did not see any comments addressing this. I intend to give a more formed opinion about the groups as soon as I finish my analysis.
that and scum could choose not to post immediately after the thread opened
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Yeah but if you push town to lynch group one, then you'd win immediately.In post 174, Albert B. Rampage wrote:1/1/1 is a long hard road to victory for the scum, they automatically lose 1 player no matter what the town does.In post 173, Morning Tweet wrote:So conversely, if you're scum, you'd pick the 1/1/1 since that also lets you be lazy and win
If I were scum I would put all in 1 group.
additionally, if the town does lynch one of the smaller groups, town is gonna waste all their time D2 going after the big group which only has 1 scum, letting the scum in the smaller group to have an easier time. I could see the scumteam plausibly choosing 1/1/1
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General wariness abt people wanting group one lynched. What i find worrying abt that statement is the possibility you use it as a reason for pushing group one after finding a few scummy individuals in there. i wouldnt go so far as to call the statement scummy though
presently i think if there's any less than 3 scum in group one, we shouldnt lynch it. Even scumreading 3 people in group one prolly wouldnt be enough for me, since it's likely at least 1 scumread would be wrong
presently i think if there's any less than 3 scum in group one, we shouldnt lynch it. Even scumreading 3 people in group one prolly wouldnt be enough for me, since it's likely at least 1 scumread would be wrong
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I figure it probably came as a result of Ame implicating group 2 as being scummier than group 3. Mohab comes across as someone who would turn on group 3 if someone made a compelling enough case for it, so im generally not bothered by itIn post 194, dsjstr wrote:MT what do you think about Mahob switching from group 3 to group 2?
Going by what ive seen from the members of group 3 so far, i feel like there's a decent chance they're all town and group 3 is what scum wants us to pick today
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Clidd you're coming across to me as someone who just wants to get group 3 lynched, rather than simply find scum and attack wherever they are
Although your 188 is an exception to this, where you say that Hoctac's reasoning for TLing ABR may be faulty. what do you think the odds are that Albert is scum?
Although your 188 is an exception to this, where you say that Hoctac's reasoning for TLing ABR may be faulty. what do you think the odds are that Albert is scum?
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If i were setting up these groups, it would seem really obvious to me as scum that Group #3 is going to receive the most lynch pressure.
It's got an extra player over group #2, so in theory, town would think they get higher chances of hitting scum in there. This is subjective, but they didn't put any of the players that i know are good at seeming towny in there (like Cat, Ame, clidd, Kanna). Someone in group 3 admitted they usually get scumread.
And now, indeed, the majority of the game seems to be having suspicions towards group #3. Even all three group #3 members seem to suspect group #3, lmao
i do lean town on Mohab and Enomis as well. Dsjr i dont have an explicit read on yet but i havent found him scummy per se
At this point, im feeling there's 2-3 scum in group one and 0-1 scum outside
I feel like group #2 has a better chance of hitting scum, and if there is no scum outside group #1, it limits our losses a bit as well
It's got an extra player over group #2, so in theory, town would think they get higher chances of hitting scum in there. This is subjective, but they didn't put any of the players that i know are good at seeming towny in there (like Cat, Ame, clidd, Kanna). Someone in group 3 admitted they usually get scumread.
And now, indeed, the majority of the game seems to be having suspicions towards group #3. Even all three group #3 members seem to suspect group #3, lmao
i do lean town on Mohab and Enomis as well. Dsjr i dont have an explicit read on yet but i havent found him scummy per se
At this point, im feeling there's 2-3 scum in group one and 0-1 scum outside
I feel like group #2 has a better chance of hitting scum, and if there is no scum outside group #1, it limits our losses a bit as well
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Oh yeah i forgot enomis was like "I want to be here on day 2." in response to Mohab voting group three.Raya36 wrote:Morning, can you explain your town lean on Enomis? I'm just not seeing it. Also Enomis is actively avoiding lynching his own group so only 2 of the 3 members suspect group 3 unless I missed something.
Spoiler: Enomis
Enomis is either a demoralized player who feels like he has no options today but wants to keep playing so he's blindly voting group #2, or he's acting out that character. I feel like this is a bad course of action for scum to take. I'd expect scum to find ways to scumread clidd and ABR, not claim "I don't want to die" and more or less give up
I also feel like if Enomis was on a scumteam, he wouldn't volunteer to be put in the outlier group. he'd go for the big group and let someone else do the outlier. Yes, he could be lying about this self-preservation mindset, but im more inclined to think its real
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yup! i got u good on that one (・ω<)In post 214, Hoctac wrote:Oh, you said "acting out that character". Did you just edit that post to make me feel stupid?
Noting this down for later.
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I think that is really really unlikely
But you make me feel even more like not voting group 3. I doubt a scumteam member in group 3 would take the stance that there's two scummy players in group 3 while group 3 is on like L-2 and under heavy fire by most of the game
pedit: pretty!
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I feel like at least one person says i make a semantics slip every game. do i just type really haphazardly? it's starting to become a pet peeve of mine.In post 238, dsjstr wrote:Part of that has to do with the slip I saw,I just noticed that MT referred to the town as "them" when saying that there are at least 5 town in group 1 and they should not vote for their own group. This seems weird to me and looks like MT could have slipped. If they are town then theyIn post 13, Morning Tweet wrote:First impressions: i feel that it is unlikely scum placed 2 of themselves in group 2, or 2 of themselves in group 3
That seems like a lot of risk, because at a glance you'd expect us to probably pick group 2 or 3 for the lynch, and it'd be hard to stop it if one of those groups gained traction. all it would take is one scummy member in the group and you'd lose that group and 2/3rds of the scumteam
Whereas if you placed 2+ scum inside group one, it'd likely be easier to steer the lynch away from one to one of the smaller groups.after all, there's at least 5 town in group one and im sure at least some of them would not want to die
I just realized while writing this that if we lynch group one, and there's zero scum in there, we lose the game immediately. ack!
would have included them self as part of the town. Instead he talks about town being other people, now what does this have to do with group 3? If you look at MT's first read list you will notice that Mohab is the only strong town read. I personally
i dont think you're scum, but this is not a good scumtell ヽ(;__;)ノ
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and then subsequently get his group knocked out of the game. Why not put a more.. active player in group #3 that could sway town to group #2?In post 226, Daenerys and Dragons wrote:like he claims he's demoralized and can use that to be lazy and not try to scumhunt
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clidd, the detectiveIn post 266, Hoctac wrote:a haiku about clidd
he takes a sip of his tea
it’s quite delicious
im not sure if the last line is cheating or not
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Albert you act more confident than i would if it were mod confirmed to me that there's 3 scum in group one. How are you so certain scum was lazy. how
I only skimmed but ill reread better later. I am only willing to vote group two right now. To vote group one id need like, four scumreads in there.
I only skimmed but ill reread better later. I am only willing to vote group two right now. To vote group one id need like, four scumreads in there.
and that is not happening
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If 2 scum in group one -> 4 person MYLO is a good result, then we should probably choose group one
5 players -> nightkill -> 4 players 2|1|1
You have to pick one of the 1 groups. Or you can pick the 2, depending on WIFOM
3 players 1|1|1 LYLO
if we think this gives town best chance of winning, then id vote group one cause i feel pretty strongly theres 2 scum in it. Technically we're risking the game on there being 2+ but we may as well live a little
5 players -> nightkill -> 4 players 2|1|1
You have to pick one of the 1 groups. Or you can pick the 2, depending on WIFOM
3 players 1|1|1 LYLO
if we think this gives town best chance of winning, then id vote group one cause i feel pretty strongly theres 2 scum in it. Technically we're risking the game on there being 2+ but we may as well live a little
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@ABR cause if I only have 3 scumreads then im pretty sure I'd be wrong on at least one
That was based on lynching group one if theres 3 scum in there tho. I am not really sure if lynching group one with 2 scum in there is optimal or not. Hoctac says it is. If i figure out that 3v1 mylo is the best odds were gonna get, then ill vote group one
That was based on lynching group one if theres 3 scum in there tho. I am not really sure if lynching group one with 2 scum in there is optimal or not. Hoctac says it is. If i figure out that 3v1 mylo is the best odds were gonna get, then ill vote group one
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i am not totally ready mentally to do it yet. will get back to you later
scumteam could still be {Someone in Group 1 who wants Group 1 dead} + {ABR} + {Clidd/Mohab/enonis/asjr}.
must be sure that it isnt the case. i dont think its 100% outside of the realm of possibility scum tries to lynch group 1 with 1/1/1 or 1/2/0. But i definitely think it's unlikely
scumteam could still be {Someone in Group 1 who wants Group 1 dead} + {ABR} + {Clidd/Mohab/enonis/asjr}.
must be sure that it isnt the case. i dont think its 100% outside of the realm of possibility scum tries to lynch group 1 with 1/1/1 or 1/2/0. But i definitely think it's unlikely
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thats exactly what i'd expect scum!albert to do. it's lower effort, and it plays into the WIFOM very nicelyIn post 463, Raya36 wrote:But Albert is acting way too obvious for that??In post 461, Daenerys and Dragons wrote:if there is some weird scum conspiracy to lynch a bunch of town in 1 to win then Albert would be scum obviously
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I haven't decided. I'm leaning towards that not being the case, though. I think 2-3 scum are in group one.In post 470, Raya36 wrote:So you're thinking scum want us to lynch group 1 and Albert is the one in charge of aggressively pushing that? And that's why he's in the smallest group maybe? In case that backfired?In post 468, Morning Tweet wrote:thats exactly what i'd expect scum!albert to do. it's lower effort, and it plays into the WIFOM very nicelyIn post 463, Raya36 wrote:But Albert is acting way too obvious for that??In post 461, Daenerys and Dragons wrote:if there is some weird scum conspiracy to lynch a bunch of town in 1 to win then Albert would be scum obviously
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The scenario im talking about is if scum distributed 1/1/1. Scum in group one advocates for group one annihilation. Albert in group two advocates to kill group one. And the scum in group three could do it too
I can feasibly see Albert!scum opting to choose to do a super obvious scream that group 1 is obvscum (as WIFOM), but im leaning towards that not being the case
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Ok, you got me pretty good with that one (>∀<)In post 473, Albert B. Rampage wrote:I would propose marriage to a bat before I did 1/1/1 as scum.
marrying a bat wouldn't be that bad!!
im beginning to feel more and more like im gonna vote group #1
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I think if we're going to just lose right here, it's {Hoctac/Kanna/D&D}??? + {ABR} + {ds/Mohab}???
i havent been putting in as much effort reading thru as id like
I really don't think there's 2 scum outside of group #1. I feel its pretty likely there's 1 scum outside. 3 in group #1 is a bad plan for scum to have taken.
so voting group #1 is in theory our ticket to 3v1
i havent been putting in as much effort reading thru as id like
I really don't think there's 2 scum outside of group #1. I feel its pretty likely there's 1 scum outside. 3 in group #1 is a bad plan for scum to have taken.
so voting group #1 is in theory our ticket to 3v1
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oh what the hell that is kinda strangeIn post 564, Ame wrote:There aren't any females in Groups 2 or 3. I was contemplating on whether it just happened to turn out that way, but considering the proportion this game, I think it's an unlikely a coincidence and the groups were intentionally made on this basis. Also we are in alphabetical order. In the last game, the names were more randomly spread about. Hoc is the only male in the first group (and dragon half). This makes me think that either a) Hoc is pulling a funny one or b) The scum team consists of players who didn't know what Hoc's gender was.
If Hoc isn't scum, what would a scumteam's motivations for sorting it that way be?
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Guys be honest. am i hopeless at scumhunting? Actually i figured it out myself. Yes.
Basically i took my previous townleans, and threw on the new ones, and here we are. I can reread and fix it as long as we arent terminating group #1 right now. Are you guys considering ending group #1 right now, or are we waiting
Basically i took my previous townleans, and threw on the new ones, and here we are. I can reread and fix it as long as we arent terminating group #1 right now. Are you guys considering ending group #1 right now, or are we waiting
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woo!!!!In post 598, Albert B. Rampage wrote:Yes, it's a deal. But if you are scum, our contract is cancelled.In post 536, Morning Tweet wrote:Should i try to read more closely into this game, or is that a giant waste of time when i can just vote group one?
OH NOim starting to become albert
Albert you have to marry me if i vote group one and it turns out that it isn't 1/1/1. deal?
i will get to reading later and then most likely vote group #1
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why would he back down from the game winning lynch as scum
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I am still wondering though, who is the scum in Group #1?
my guess would be D&D and raya but it's pretty baseless.
As for outside of group #1, I'd guess clidd..? I still townlean on group #3 and think it's generally a bad move for scum to put people in there. Easily could just be wrong on group #3 and there is in fact 1 scum in there though
Spoiler:
As for outside of group #1, I'd guess clidd..? I still townlean on group #3 and think it's generally a bad move for scum to put people in there. Easily could just be wrong on group #3 and there is in fact 1 scum in there though
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Raya reminds me of scum fencesitting a little bit on the group #1 lynch issue. i also dont like her insistence on group #3 bring scum
So if it's gonna be 2-3 scum in group #1, i think thats scum #1
D&D could be scum by PoE, nothing especially scum indictative but if scum does in fact not want group #1 lynched, they're another decent bet
It's possible that there's a group #1 doomsayer scum in group #1 as well. I'm leaning Kanna if so, although not very strongly.
i think its most likely that the final scum is outside group #1 somewhere and i gotta find which townread i had wrong. My main guess is clidd at the moment
So if it's gonna be 2-3 scum in group #1, i think thats scum #1
D&D could be scum by PoE, nothing especially scum indictative but if scum does in fact not want group #1 lynched, they're another decent bet
It's possible that there's a group #1 doomsayer scum in group #1 as well. I'm leaning Kanna if so, although not very strongly.
i think its most likely that the final scum is outside group #1 somewhere and i gotta find which townread i had wrong. My main guess is clidd at the moment
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